UNITED NATIONS, Feb 17 (IPS) – On January 19, Israel and Hamas implemented a ceasefire agreement that would end the fighting in Israel and Palestine, see the return of hostages and prisoners, and begin a period of recovery and reconstruction for Palestine. Although the past several weeks have seen a relatively smooth transition and a cessation of hostilities, the prospect of a long-term implementation of the ceasefire remains fragile and there is significant risk of a return to warfare and heightened instability across the Middle East. With the humanitarian situation in Gaza improving for the first time in 16 months, it is imperative that the ceasefire remains in effect.
On February 13, Hamas reiterated that it would release hostages as scheduled in the ceasefire agreement. This came after Hamas informed reporters that it would delay the release of Israeli hostages due to Israel’s blocking of humanitarian aid and returning displaced Palestinians to the wrong areas. The first phase of the ceasefire is expected to last 42 days, with Hamas having incrementally released 16 of the 33 hostages.
Later that day, David Mencer, a spokesperson for the Israeli government, informed reporters that the ceasefire would be called off if Hamas didn’t release three hostages by noon on Saturday.
“We’re talking about these Israeli hostages arriving back in Israel. If that does not happen by Saturday, noon, the ceasefire will end and the IDF will resume intense military operations until Hamas is fully defeated,” said Mencer.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that “all hell is going to break out”, indicating militaristically aggressive consequences for Palestine if the hostages weren’t returned by noon. He also proposed plans to remove Palestinians from the enclave. The comments made by the U.S. and Israeli governments have elicited much concern among the international community on the long-term efficacy of the ceasefire and if a three-phase implementation is feasible.
Raed Jarrar, the Advocacy Director of Democracy of DAWN, opines that these plans are not viable. “ If the world were to submit to President Trump’s plan, there would be far reaching implications for every country, which no one wants. President Trump shows that maximum pressure does not work. All it did was strain Netanyahu to uphold the terms of the ceasefire”, Jarrar told IPS.
According to a situation update from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), currently, 76 Israeli citizens and additional foreign captives remain in Gaza, including a number of deceased hostages. Figures from the Israel Prison Service (IPS) indicate that there are approximately 9,846 Palestinians in Israeli custody, including 1,734 prisoners, 2,941 remand detainees, and 1,802 hostages who are described as “unlawful combatants”. This does not account for the Palestinians who have been in the custody of the Israeli military following October 7, 2023.
United Nations (UN) Secretary-General António Guterres has indicated that it is imperative that both parties remain dedicated to fulfilling their duties as a return to war would greatly exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
“We must avoid at all costs the resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to an immense tragedy,” said Guterres. “I appeal to Hamas to proceed with the planned liberation of hostages next Saturday. Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the ceasefire agreement and resume serious negotiations in Doha for the second phase.”
On February 12, SARI Global, an organization that analyzed trends in geopolitical relations, released a report detailing the possible consequences of a return to hostilities between the two parties. They predict that the ceasefire will likely fall through due to growing frustration between Israel, Palestine, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia, all of whom have different visions of what the future of Palestine should look like. Additionally, it is speculated that in the next few weeks, Hamas could refuse to release more hostages, leading to a “resumption of targeted Israeli military operations, including sporadic airstrikes”.
The report also states that a rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which includes pro-Palestinian protests in Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, could provoke Israel and Hamas to take action that would effectively end the ceasefire.
According to the UN, over two million people in Gaza are fully dependent on humanitarian assistance for basic services. “Conditions in Gaza are dire. Palestinians dealt with extensive brutality for sixteen months. Israel has violated the terms of agreement and blocked fuel, food, and critical resources”, said Jarrar.
However, the ceasefire will likely go through to Phase 2. “Once a ceasefire goes into effect, it is difficult to stop. Israel wants their hostages back so it’s in their best interest to continue,” said Jarrar. He added that Phase 3 is uncertain because once all prisoners are exchanged, Israel might renege on its obligations and continue hostilities in Gaza.
Some political analysts have also expressed skepticism at the long-term feasibility of the ceasefire due to the possibility of a difficult transition from one phase to another.
“The transition from phase one of the deal to the next ones will be a challenge, as Netanyahu and his far-right coalition oppose a formal end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip…Ending the war should also be leveraged to advancing an Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution. But this, too, is rejected by the current Israeli government, and necessitates leadership change in Israel,” said Nimrod Goren, the President and founder of Mitvim- The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies.
Contrasting interests between the two states also threatens to unravel the ceasefire. For example, the use of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) to rebuild Palestine and provide aid, has been widely contested due to Israel’s long-standing disdain for the organization. Additionally, it is likely that Israel could reject a two-state solution.
“If the third phase of the ceasefire agreement is ever reached, the most critical issue will be on the negotiators’ table: the reconstruction and, therefore, the administration of the Gaza Strip…The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mohammed Mustafa of Fatah, declared yesterday that the Palestinian Authority (PA) alone should manage the Strip in the post-war period. However, when they are faced with so much destruction on the ground, and if there is genuine UN mediation, it will then be necessary for the two sides to find a modus vivendi,” said Caterina Roggero, a Senior Associate Research Fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI).
According to the SARI Global report, if the ceasefire were to unravel, there would be ripple effects throughout the Middle East. Regional instability would be heightened, with the most likely ramification being an eruption in hostilities between Yemen and Israel. The Islamist political movement in Yemen, Houthis, would likely resume their attacks in Israel in the Red Sea. Political protests in the Middle East would grow stronger and stoke dissidence and insecurity.
Additionally, the humanitarian situation in Gaza would rapidly deteriorate if hostilities were to continue. If humanitarian aid was shut off from entering the enclave, famine, disease, and starvation would continue to ravage the population.
“It’s a tremendous concern if the ceasefire does not last. You saw the suffering that had happened from October 2023 up until just a few weeks ago, and we do not want to return to that. All efforts need to be made to make sure that this ceasefire, which has been precious to the people of the region and indeed of the wider Middle East, that ceasefire is maintained,” said Farhan Haq, the Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General of the UN.
On February 16, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Israel and met with Netanyahu, where they held discussions on several issues including the ceasefire. During a joint press conference, Netanyahu shared that he and Trump are “working in full cooperation and coordination” over a common strategy.
He added: “We can’t always share the details of this strategy with the public, including when the gates of hell will be opened, as they surely will, if all our hostages are not released until the last one of them.”
Rubio said that President Trump has been “very bold about his view on what Gaza should be”. He also remarked that Hamas “cannot continue as a military or a government force”, and that “as long as it stands as a force that can govern…that can threaten by use of violence, peace becomes impossible.”
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