KYIV, Feb 18 (IPS) – U.S. President Donald Trump and his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, have recently expressed confidence and optimism about the prospect of “ending” the war in Ukraine. No details have been made public; however, according to the new administration’s vision, both sides must make concessions to achieve peace. Yet it remains unclear not only what the proposed concessions are but also how exactly the US intends to persuade the parties to compromise.
President Trump has so far limited himself to vague threats to impose tariffs on non-existent Russian imports to the U.S. General Kellogg, for his part, has transparently hinted that Ukraine should abandon its unrealistic desire to liberate its territory occupied by Russia.
The U.S. efforts to pressure Ukraine to accept significant territorial losses to Russia in exchange for ending the war are expected to increase. In contrast to the various options discussed at the expert level last year, the new Trump administration has avoided making any commitments to future security guarantees for Ukraine.
Of course, it is still possible that a significant part of the U.S. proposal remains non-public. However, it is more likely that the plan is designed to satisfy the ambitions of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, albeit not to the maximalist extent. So, with a Trump administration, he may be closer than ever to getting his way in Ukraine.
In fact, this proposed deal appears indistinguishable from the Chinese-Brazilian peace plan discussed at various international venues last year. Both approaches would “freeze” the conflict, giving at least implicit recognition of Russia’s occupation of swathes of Ukrainian territory, as well as a permanent foothold from which Russia can launch future aggressions.
It is obvious why China and Russia’s other authoritarian allies would favor this plan. But why has it found support in the White House?
The general logic is as follows: Ukraine is not in a position to liberate all of its territories in the foreseeable future (especially not without very costly and politically fraught U.S. assistance); continuing hostilities only bring further suffering; and military activities, therefore, should stop as soon as possible.
This framework is deeply flawed and far from a fair resolution. However, other options in the current global political configuration are beginning to look simply unrealistic.
If somehow it is possible to add guarantees against further Russian aggression to the “Trump—Kellogg plan,” it will at least look workable. Proponents of this model cite the experience of post-war Germany and North Korea.
Persuading Ukraine to renounce territorial integrity would not be easy, but it is possible. It is hard to imagine what could make the Kremlin stop its troops.
It was only last summer that Vladimir Putin demanded that territories that Russia does not de facto control be handed over to him as a condition for a ceasefire. In its own perverse way, this is logical – like dealing with any common gangster, peace always comes at a cost.
Also, it is more difficult to imagine, however, what security commitments could be strong enough to prevent further Russian aggression and war crimes. More precisely, what guarantees would Western leaders, who are so afraid of escalation and any hint of a direct clash with Russia, agree to accept? But even if we assume that a solution to these dilemmas could be found, we would be required to accept the occupation as irreversible.
Attention should, therefore, be paid to the following aspect, which is usually omitted from the analysis: What is happening in Ukraine’s occupied territories is fundamentally different from the German situation half a century ago.
The Soviet Union did not deny post-war Germany’s right to statehood (no matter how much of a puppet the East German regime was), and Moscow did not deny the German people’s right to exist.
In the case of Ukraine, however, Russia is not simply trying to undermine Ukrainian statehood – it is trying to destroy Ukraine as a nation and as a people. Ukrainians, from the point of view of official Kremlin ideology, are Russians who have forgotten that they are Russian, and Russia must remind them of this fact.
This is playing out in the occupied territories, where Russian forces are implementing a regime of forced passportization, Russification of education, and the systemic persecution of any religious communities except those who were forcibly annexed to the Russian Orthodox Church under the leadership of the Moscow Patriarchate.
The practice of “Filtration Camps,” through which a significant part of the population of the occupied territories passed, is not without reason so reminiscent of Chinese methods of suppressing, or some would say, destroying the Uyghur minority.
What we are seeing in occupied Ukraine is a general pattern of social re-education on an Orwellian level.
The effectiveness of Russian methods should not be underestimated. Violence, propaganda, and bribery of those ready to imitate loyalty do their job. Ukrainians in the occupied territories are being turned into Russians. Those who think that this can be resolved once peace has been negotiated are either playing dumb or are truly naive.
Governments that are supporting Ukraine should instead focus on military aid as well as on accountability for Russia’s crime of aggression and the atrocities taking place against civilians.
The self-soothing illusion that the China-Brazil plan (or should I say “the Trump-Kellogg” one now?) will bring peace to Ukraine is a destructive one, and those in the West — including the U.S. administration —tempted to support this idea must wake up to the consequences of appeasing Putin.
Should the conflict in Ukraine be “frozen” by such an accord, all it will do is show dictators and autocrats that national sovereignty and the right to self-determination are negotiable. Ultimately, this won’t provide any of us any peace or comfort, but especially not those Ukrainians forced to remain under Russia’s yoke.
© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
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