Week 12 College Football Best Betting Picks, Predictions Saturday November 16th | Deadspin.com

Just three Saturdays remain in the 2024 college football regular season, and the Playoff picture is slowly coming into focus.

The best bets for Week 12 dive into a trio of games featuring teams currently in position to reach the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

Tennessee at Georgia

Week 12’s biggest game pits sixth-ranked Tennessee against No. 11 Georgia, with the Bulldogs possibly fighting for their Playoff lives. The stunning 28-10 loss at Ole Miss in Week 11 has put Georgia’s back against the wall.

There’s value in taking Tennessee on the moneyline: FanDuel offers the 9.5-point underdog Vols at +270 to win straight up, while DraftKings has Tennessee ending its six-game losing streak to Georgia at +295.

For those not confident in a Tennessee outright win, Tennessee at -105 (FanDuel, BetMGM) to cover the 9.5-point spread is worth a look—particularly in light of the factors that make the 46.5-point under a smart bet.

At 12.6 points allowed per game, the Vols are holding opponents to the fifth-lowest yield in the FBS. They’re allowing 0.3 points per game fewer than the Ole Miss defense that gave Georgia fits a week ago, including holding Alabama’s 38.1-point-per-game offense to just 17 points.

No opponent has scored more than 19 points against Tennessee, which came in the Vols’ lone defeat. That 19-14 setback against Arkansas highlighted the weaknesses in the Tennessee offense that might make bettors hesitant about taking the Vols to win outright—particularly against a talented Georgia defense allowing just 18.4 points per game.

But with the Bulldogs having had their own offensive struggles against Kentucky and Ole Miss, two of the best defenses they’ve faced this season, Saturday’s contest should be an old-school, low-scoring SEC grind, no matter which side wins.

UNDER 46.5 (-110), FanDuel

BYU vs. Kansas

BYU and Kansas have had 2024 seasons on opposite sides of the same coin. Undefeated BYU comes into its Week 12 matchup with the Jayhawks having won five one-possession games, including last Saturday’s wild 22-21 comeback victory over rival Utah.

Kansas, meanwhile, is 0-4 in one-score games after taking its rival and another Big 12 Playoff hopeful, Kansas State, to a 29-27 final on Oct. 26.

Each team’s tendency to play close games may have contributed to the opening line of BYU -7 plummeting to the Cougars being favored by less than a field goal. Kansas is better than its 3-6 overall record suggests, and the Jayhawks should give BYU another competitive game.

However, KU has struggled on the road—the Jayhawks are 0-4 away from Lawrence this season—and Lance Leipold’s team may struggle to limit BYU’s passing offense as effectively as Utah did last week.

Jake Retzlaff went just 15-of-33 for 219 yards against Utah, with a season-low 6.6 yards per attempt. Utah’s defense is holding opponents to fewer than 50 percent completions with just 10 touchdowns allowed on the season.

Kansas heads into Provo ranked No. 89 nationally against the pass, allowing 233.4 yards per game with a completion percentage yield greater than 60. Expect a more efficient Cougars offense against the Jayhawks, and a bit more breathing room in a BYU win than it had a week ago as Kalani Sitake’s team moves one win closer to the Playoff.

BYU -2.5 (-110), ESPN Bet, Bet365, FanDuel

Boise State at San Jose State

Boise State’s one-score win over Nevada may not have impressed the College Football Playoff selection committee, which ranked the Broncos No. 13 in the Nov. 12 rankings, occupying the last berth in the field.

Ashton Jeanty, however, was impressive, breaking 200 rushing yards for the fourth time this season. His three touchdowns also marked his fifth outing with at least three scores.

As the Boise State running back looks to become the first Heisman Trophy winner from a non-Autonomous Five conference since BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1991, look for his production to increase down the stretch. That starts with Saturday’s visit to San Jose State, a surprising 6-3 team with a slim but realistic chance of reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game.

San Jose State’s rushing defense has been stout, holding opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry. But SJSU has also been giving up points—31 or more in four of the last six contests.

While reaching the 200-yard milestone again may be a tough ask of Jeanty, Boise State should have scoring opportunities. That means Jeanty will see plenty of chances to punch it into the end zone and continue building his Heisman resume.

Ashton Jeanty to score 3+ touchdowns (+125), FanDuel