Cooper Flagg is trending as one of the best NBA Draft prospects in modern history

The NBA had a premonition Cooper Flagg was bound for future superstardom long before he put on a Duke jersey. It was the NBA’s interest that convinced Flagg to reclassify, essentially skipping his senior year of high school to enroll in college at just 17 years old. It was at the NBA’s behest that he arrived at USA Basketball training camp this past summer, where he famously out-played some of the best players in the world in scrimmages ahead of the Paris Olympics.

Flagg was preordained as the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft before he ever stepped onto campus, but that was just the tip of the hype. All he had to do to live up to his overwhelming expectations was establish himself as one of the best players in the country and drive team success despite being one of the youngest players in the sport. It should be a nearly impossible needle to thread for anyone his age, but as the calendar has turned to 2025, Flagg has left no doubt he can pull it off.

Duke is No. 3 in the new AP Poll thanks to a 10-game winning streak powered by their superstar freshman. Flagg’s last game was best yet: a new ACC freshman record 42 points in a win over Notre Dame highlighted by another ridiculous poster slam, more hot shooting from three-point range, and a tremendous passing display that saw him tie his season-high in assists.

Flagg looked like he belonged from his first game at Duke, though he wasn’t always living up to his “generational” tag. It feels like that’s changed since he turned on 18 years old on Dec. 21. Here are Flagg’s numbers before and after his birthday:

It isn’t even fair to say 18 is a “normal” age for a freshman, because the NBA Draft has seen plenty of one-and-dones older than that in recent years. Flagg is 17 months younger than Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe, a fellow lottery selection in June’s draft after his freshman year, for example.

Nothing signifies future stardom better overwhelming production at a young age against good competition. Flagg is the process of pulling that off as well as any prospect to hit college basketball over the last 20 years. Box score plus/minus is a metric that estimates a player’s contribution when on the floor. Since 2008, 21 freshmen have put up a BPM over 10 in a single-season. Flagg’s current mark of 14.3 ranks as the fifth highest of that group. He is playing his freshman year as the youngest player on this list by a wide margin.

Only Auburn senior Johni Broome and Houston junior Emanuel Sharp are sporting a higher BPM than Flagg this year. Flagg is also third in the country in win shares, and leading the country in defensive win shares, per sports-reference. He’s not just good for a freshman: he should legitimately be runner up for National Player of the Year behind Broome. With Broome’s recent ankle injury, he might just win it outright, something only Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, and Kevin Durant have done as freshmen.

Flagg is unique among super prospects in that he’s not exactly a takeover scorer — or at least not yet. Instead, Flagg is an elite defensive prospect who also happens to be a a really good offensive player with a ton of versatility.

Duke’s defense is No. 2 in the country right now, allowing only 87.8 points per 100 possessions. Flagg is the type of chess piece that can make any defense elite. At 6’9 with a 7-foot wingspan, the freshman can oscillate between wing stopper, off-ball roamer, rim protector, and pick-and-roll detonator. He has a tremendous combination of length, athleticism, smarts, and motor, and it all comes together to routinely make game-changing plays defense.

Flagg’s versatility and dominance defensively unlocks so many potential team-building avenues. Got a center who’s highly skilled offensively but a little soft as a rim protector? Flagg is the perfect four to put them to them. Do your twos and threes struggle to contain the ball at the point of attack? Flagg can chip in there, too. While smaller, super speedy ball handlers can still beat him off the bounce at times, Flagg has unreal recovery tools to erase a shot even when someone gets separation from him.

Offensively, Flagg is still only average as a shooter and ball handler, but still contributes in so many other areas. Duke has had Flagg creating often with the ball in his hands, which has led to some rough moments but should be excellent for his long-term growth. Overall, Flagg has performed very well in that role: he has a sky-high 30.9 percent usage rate to go with above-average scoring efficiency with 58.3 percent true shooting, and an impressive 25.5 percent assist rate.

Flagg’s efficiency numbers would look a lot better in more of a play-finishing role, where his length, athleticism, and motor help him win consistently. With his creation skills improving seemingly every week, Flagg has major versatility on offense, too. He’s going to be a tremendous finisher with his tools, and creation improvement could eventually take him to the next stratosphere.

Flagg may only be a 34.5 percent three-point shooter right now, but he has the balance and mechanics of someone who will shoot it much better than that down the line.

As a scorer, Flagg is just too big and too athletic for most individual defenders. He’s a load to deal with when he gets downhill, and he’s explosive enough to put himself near the basket as soon as he creates an advantage.

The fact that Flagg also has his eyes up when he’s driving might be the most appealing part of long-term potential. The dream of Flagg as a jumbo playmaker always felt a north star for his development, but the truth is that he’s closer to being that right now than many anticipated. Just look at this lob to teammate (and fellow future lottery pick) Khaman Maluach.

I’ve been lucky enough to cover the NBA Draft at SB Nation since 2013 (feel free to go back and read my old combine reports on Rudy Gobert, Zach LaVine, and Dennis Schroder). The only prospect I would definitively put over Flagg during that time is Victor Wembanyama, who I was casually giving Kareem comps to a year out from his draft day. I’d probably give Luka Doncic an edge over Flagg, too. Prospect Zion Williamson deserves to be in this tier too, even if he hasn’t lived up to the hype as his body has broken down and he’s struggled with his conditioning.

Flagg deserves to be in the same breath as all these studs, and ahead of super prospects like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Paolo Banchero, and Chet Holmgren. The numbers speak for themselves: Cooper Flagg is simply very, very good already.

For as good as Dylan Harper has been at Rutgers, Flagg deserves to sit in a tier of his own in the 2025 NBA Draft. He is the type of prospect who is absolutely worth tanking for, because whoever gets him is acquiring a Queen-like chess piece capable of moving all over the board.

It’s hard to live up to expectations when you’re as hyped as Flagg was, but right now, he’s doing it. Sit back and enjoy seeing a talent like this at the college level, because prospects like Flagg do not come along often.