Daniel Ricciardo’s last stand

Daniel Ricciardo’s shocking mid-season return to the Formula 1 grid a year ago had the makings of the latest dream ending in the sport.

But as the grid arrived in Singapore for this weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix, that dream ending seems to have the feeling of a last stand.

Recent developments around him, as well as the driver’s inconsistent form, have seen that dream take on more of a nightmare feeling. And while this weekend marks his return to the Singapore Grand Prix, a race he missed last year due to injury, there is a thought that his time at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team — and potentially in the sport itself — could be drawing to a close.

Ricciardo’s surprise return to the grid a season ago, replacing the struggling Nyck de Vries at AlphaTauri, was welcomed throughout the paddock by journalists and Netflix producers alike. While Max Verstappen and Red Bull were running away with the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships, respectively, the return of the supremely marketable Ricciardo offered something of a spark.

But that return was derailed by a practice crash at the Dutch Grand Prix that resulted in a broken bone in his left hand, and Ricciardo’s subsequent surgery sidelined him for several races. That handed an opportunity to reserve driver Liam Lawson who capitalized on his chance with several impressive performances, including a ninth-place finish at the Singapore Grand Prix.

At that point in the season, Lawson’s P9 was the team’s best result of the year.

Of course, Ricciardo returned to the grid and delivered a command performance of his own, capitalizing on a strong qualifying run — and a slipstream from teammate Yuki Tsunoda in both Q1 and Q2 — to qualify fourth at the Mexico City Grand Prix. Ricciardo parlayed that into a P7 in the Grand Prix itself. That might have been his only points result of the year, but it went into the books as the team’s best.

AlphaTauri — now Visa Cash App RB F1 Team — faced a difficult decision filling out their 2024 driver lineup, ultimately rolling with the veterans in Tsunoda and Ricciardo, leaving Lawson sidelined as a reserve. However, the issue of fitting three drivers into two seats was not the only impossible mathematical problem the organization faced. Beyond the two VCARB seats, the Red Bull family also faced the issue of fitting four drivers into three seats. Certainly, Max Verstappen is locked into one of their four seats as long as he wants it, but with Sergio Pérez entering 2024 on the final year of his contract not only did the three drivers at VCARB want a seat for 2024, but they were also eying Pérez’s seat at Red Bull for 2025.

A scenario Ricciardo himself often termed as the “fairytale” ending to his F1 story.

That dream scenario took a major hit this summer when Red Bull announced that Pérez had signed a new deal with the team that could keep him in his current seat through 2026. That was followed by Tsunoda announcing a new deal of his own at VCARB, giving him another year in his current seat.

Three seats down with one remaining, and multiple drivers vying for that spot.

While Ricciardo might have enjoyed the inside track to that seat, and a strong performance in Montreal during the Canadian Grand Prix perhaps came at an ideal time, reporting over the summer illustrated just how tenuous his grasp on that spot was.

First was the report that surfaced involving Lawson’s contract with Red Bull. According to Red Bull Senior Advisor Dr. Helmut Marko, Lawson’s contract with the team contains an escape clause. As such, if Lawson does not get a seat at Red Bull or VCARB, he is free to explore other options.

This comes at a less-than-ideal if you are competing with him for a seat. Given the number of spots still to be confirmed for 2025 — nine for those keeping count — Lawson may certainly have options. If you want to keep Lawson in the family, offering him a seat may be preferable to seeing him walk.

Then there was reporting, also prompted by comments by Marko, that indicated that Red Bull shareholders may be pushing for a younger driver to be in that seat at VCARB. Speaking with Austrian outlet Kleine Zeitung ahead of the Austrian Grand Prix, Marko outlined that a move in a younger direction at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team may be coming down from on high. “The shareholders have made it clear that [VCARB] is a junior team and we have to act accordingly,” said the Red Bull advisor.

“The aim was for Ricciardo to qualify for a return to Red Bull Racing with exceptional performances. That seat now belongs to Sergio Perez, so that plan is off the table. We will have to put in a young driver soon,” continued Marko. “That would be Liam Lawson.”

That was back in the summer. Now that Autumn is upon us, the conversation regarding Ricciardo has accelerated. Marko continues to hint at an announcement regarding Lawson following this weekend’s Singapore Grand Prix, with rumors swirling that Ricciardo could even be replaced by the team ahead of the United States Grand Prix in October.

That reporting forced Ricciardo — under the watchful eyes of representatives from both VCARB and Red Bull — to address his uncertain future during media day Thursday in Singapore:

Now, EVERYTHING that gets reported in the F1 world, particularly when it comes to driver movement, needs context and a healthy grain of salt or two. The good doctor Marko is certainly not shy when offering a quote, and there could be a bit of gamesmanship at play here.

But things do seem to be trending in a certain direction.

Now, can Ricciardo get the RB01 “on the podium,” as he indicated was his plan during those comments? If Friday’s first two practice sessions are any indication, he might have an outside shot. Ricciardo was seventh-fastest in FP1 Friday, and sixth-fastest in FP2, and with teammate Yuki Tsunoda up in the top five for both sessions, there is potential for VCARB to deliver a shocker, and Ricciardo himself to deliver a statement drive with his future in the cards.

Ricciardo sounded confident following practice on Friday.

“It was a really good day for the whole Team. Yuki and I finished in the top seven in both sessions. It was really close, I think four of us finished within two hundredths of a second. We’re happy with the car,” said Ricciardo in VCARB’s post-practice report. “There’s always some fine tuning to do, but it was nice to see ourselves in good points scoring positions today. We have a decent package here and look competitive. I had a lot of grip today, and the circuit was really fun to drive. Hopefully our pace remains tomorrow going into qualifying.”

But this does seem to be moving quickly, from “Ricciardo might be at risk for 2025” to “Lawson might be in that seat for 2025” to now “Lawson might be in that seat come October.”

If, hypothetically speaking, Lawson does take the second seat at VCARB, where does that leave Ricciardo? After all, we are talking about a former race winner, and one of the sport’s best-known, and best-marketable, personalities. In a sport filled with popular figures Ricciardo is near the top, regardless of race form, and he draws a crowd wherever he goes, like he did here at the Miami Grand Prix on media day:

Did I include this photo because you get a perfect view of the back of my head in the immediate bottom-left foreground with sunglasses on my head? It is certainly a possibility …

But getting back on track here, racing is not an inexpensive endeavor. Driver marketability continues to play a role, even in the cost cap era of F1. Success off the grid plays a role in success on the grid, and Ricciardo’s popularity off the track is another line on his resume, and an important one at that.

But that is the draw of Ricciardo, and in a sport where driver marketing is always a consideration that could play a role in keeping him on the grid next season. However, if there is not a spot for him in the Red Bull family — and the move is indeed made to Lawson, either for the rest of this season or for 2025 — then what is left for Ricciardo in F1? The last seat up for grabs in such a situation would be a spot at Sauber next Nico Hülkenberg, but Valtteri Bottas and Gabriel Bortoleto are considered the favorites there.

And if not in F1, you would expect Ricciardo to garner interest in other motorsport series. He could be a star in IndyCar, where other drivers have moved following their F1 days. Would he have any interest in trying his hand in NASCAR, or endurance racing? He is a wildly popular driver and incredibly marketable, and his racing days are not over, even if the door closes at some point on his time in F1.

As for the Red Bull organization, they may be seeing the fruits of its knack for building talent coming to fruition, as they approach a decision point regarding their 2025 drivers. At some point, there was going to be an odd driver out. Lawson was that driver a year ago. But now the winds seem to be blowing in his favor, and against Ricciardo. From the team’s perspective, they know what they have in Ricciardo, but if the idea is to prepare a driver to take over Pérez’s seat following the expiration of his new deal, seeing what they truly have in Lawson over a full season — if not more given the rumors of a move ahead of Austin — might be the smart move.

In addition, Lawson is not the only young driver in the Red Bull stable being linked with a potential F1 seat in the near future. Isack Hadjar, who drives in F2, is making a “strong case” of his own for a spot on the F1 grid, as Christian Horner stated earlier this season. There might be a thought within the organization that giving Lawson the rest of this season could solidify a spot for him at VCARB next year, or open the door to Hadjar earning that seat.

After all, Marko’s recent comments mirror VCARB’s previous status as that of a “junior” team to Red Bull. During the Toro Rosso days and into the early AlphaTauri days, the sister team was viewed as more of a proving ground. That could be another indication that Lawson or Hadjar would be picked for that spot.

That’s where Verstappen, for example, got his start.

If the organization truly wants to return to that model, it may end up with Ricciardo on the outside looking in.

Bringing his dreams of a fairytale ending to a difficult conclusion.