Deadspin | UFC Vegas 99: Preview, Odds & Betting Trends

The UFC Apex in Las Vegas will play host to its 99th event on Saturday night, with a main card that features a middleweight fight between rising 185-pound contenders Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira.

Hernandez, who turned 31 on Friday, enters his first main event riding a five-fight win streak. That includes three consecutive stoppages for the Dana White Contender Series alum, most recently against Roman Kopylov at UFC 298 in February.

Pereira has been enjoying a similar rise with three consecutive stoppages of his own. Each has come in quicker fashion since joining the middleweight ranks. Also 31, Pereira has won eight consecutive fights overall.

Both fighters tipped the scales at 125.5 pounds during Friday’s official weigh-in.

Pereira has been backed by 80 percent of the total fight bets, driving his odds down to +110 from +135 at BetMGM. However, Hernandez (-135) has drawn 54 percent of the money.

Saturday night’s main card is scheduled to being at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS

Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips

The co-main event features a bantamweight fight between the 37-year-old Font and the 29-year-old Phillips. Font has lost four of his past five fights, making this a key trip inside the Octagon to prove he’s still a viable draw against elite opponents. Phillips came out of the MMA Lab and has a three-fight win streak.

Phillips opened as the -300 favorite, and those odds have shortened even more to -450 with the public backing him with 83 percent of the fight money. Font has been supported by 75 percent of the total bets at +340.

Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji

Sumudaerji steps inside the Octagon for the first time this year and for only the third time in the past three years. He has lost each of his past two fights, and this is an important fight for the 28-year-old to regain contender status. It’s a starkly different story for Johnson, who will fight for the fourth time in 2024. He has won each of the first three, mostly recently scoring a third-round knockout of Joshua Van.

The public has been fairly split on this fight, backing Johnson (-225) with 55 percent of the bets and Sumudaerji with 54 percent of the money.

Cameron Smotherman vs. Jake Hadley

Smotherman stepped in on less than a week’s notice to fill in for Brady Hiestand, who withdrew for an undisclosed reason. The 27-year-old Smotherman, who fought once on Dana White’s Contender Series, will be making his UFC debut. After arriving at UFC as a flyweight with mixed results, Hadley stepped in on short notice to win a bantamweight fight against Caolan Loughran in July after initially missing weight.

Hadley, who is 3-3 overall in the UFC, opened as a -500 favorite. Those odds have been driven down to -115 and he is now the narrow favorite over Smotherman, who has been backed by 86 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the money at -105.

Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda

Veteran featherweights step into the Octagon on the main card. Elkins, 40, will make his 29th UFC appearance and 40th fight overall, while the 39-year-old Pineda will be in his 48th career fight. Elkins last beat TJ Brown a year ago as he seeks to hand Pineda his third consecutive defeat.

Elkins opened as the slight +100 underdog, but that has flipped to becoming the heavy -350 favorite as he has been backed by 87 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money. Elkin winning this fight has been the most wagered-on main card play at the book. Meanwhile, Penida’s odds have moved from -120 to +275.

Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev

The main card opens with this flyweight clash between a pair of Top 10 veterans. Nicolau, 31, has been knocked out in each of his past two fights, most recently by Alex Perez, so this is an important fight to prevent a further slide down the standings. Almabayev, 30, has won 16 consecutive fights overall and all three since joining the UFC.

The public has trended toward Almabayev, who has drawn 54 percent of the bets and 79 percent of the money as the -210 favorite to beat Nicolau (+170).

–Field Level Media