Is Liam Lawson already at risk of losing his spot at Red Bull?

Liam Lawson’s difficult start to the 2025 Formula 1 season continued at the Chinese Grand Prix. After qualifying 18th and crashing out of the Australian Grand Prix, Lawson qualified in P20 for both the F1 Sprint race and the Grand Prix itself in Shanghai, finishing outside of the points in both events.

Now, with Red Bull looking up at both McLaren and Mercedes in the standings, and Lawson looking for his first point of the season, speculation is growing about a potential early-season replacement for the team.

According to Autosport Red Bull is “considering changing its driver line-up” ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix in two weeks, with Yuki Tsunoda an option as a potential replacement.

Speaking to the media following the Chinese Grand Prix Horner brushed aside “speculation in the paddock,” and noted that he feels “sorry” for the young driver given the pressure on him at the moment.

“There’s always going to be speculation in the paddock. As I say, we’ve only just finished the race here. We’ll take away the info and have a good look at it,” began Horner as quoted by Sky Sports F1.

“I think Liam’s had a tough couple of races, a tough weekend here. We elected to take him off the grid out of parc ferme to do a significant set-up change and so we’ve managed to get 56 laps of reasonable data from that,” continued the Red Bull boss. “Obviously, we’ll take that away, we’ll have a good look at it, and, as a group, we’ll do our best to support him.”

“Formula 1 is a pressure business, isn’t it? There’s always time pressure. And [Lawson] knows that,” continued Horner.

“Hopefully, he’ll respond accordingly, and we’ll see where we go.

“Liam is a great little racer. I mean, he gets his elbows out. He races hard. He’s just struggling at the moment finding the limit with this car, getting the most out of the car, and, as a team, we’re looking to support him in the best way that we can. So he’ll be in the debrief, giving all that information to the engineers very shortly.”

The “elbows out” language mirrors what Horner had to say about Lawson when he made his 2024 debut at the United States Grand Prix. Over that race weekend Lawson, who was taking over for a struggling Daniel Ricciardo at VCARB, got in a few on-track scraps with Fernando Alonso.

That certainly caught Horner’s eye at the time.

“Yeah, I think if you’re getting into a spat and getting your elbows out with Fernando [Alonso] on your first race back in, you’re doing all right. And I think that he drove an exceptional race today from 19th to ninth,” said Horner to the media, including SB Nation, last October in Austin. “He was fast. He was courageous. And I thought it was an excellent comeback for him.”

However, the results are not there at the moment. And with Red Bull trailing in the Constructors’ Championship standings — and Max Verstappen looking up at Lando Norris in the Drivers’ with both George Russell and Oscar Piastri on his heels — Horner knows the team needs two drivers in the mix.

“You’re always going for ultimate performance and fast cars are never easy cars to drive, but we know there’s performance that we need to find and we need both drivers up there if there’s to be any chance of fighting for a Constructors’ Championship,” described Horner.

“With the Drivers’ Championship as well, you need to have a second car in play. You can’t just do it one-legged. So we want as a team, collectively, to make sure that we’re getting the best out of both drivers and getting both cars as far up the grid as we can.”

As for the driver himself, Lawson conceded this weekend that he needs to “perform,” otherwise he might not be around long.

“But I’m also not stupid, and I know that obviously I’m here to perform, and, if I’m not doing that, I’m not going to be around,” stated Lawson. “So, for me, I’m just focused on on getting used to the car as quickly as I can.”

The problem for Lawson might be Red Bull’s notorious lack of patience when it comes to that second seat. Since Verstappen slid into his current spot during the 2016 season he has driven alongside five different teammates: Daniel Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon, Sergio Pérez, and now Lawson.

And Verstappen received his seat when the team sidelined Daniil Kvyat.

As for who would replace Lawson, Tsunoda is the name that comes to mind. Passed over for a promotion to Red Bull this past offseason — when the team parted ways with Pérez — Tsunoda has gotten out to a strong start with Visa Cash App Racing Bulls this year. He qualified fifth for the Australian Grand Prix, and ninth for the Chinese Grand Prix.

While he did not finish in the points in either race (he was undone by a strategy call in Melbourne and suffered front-wing damage in Shanghai) he picked up three points with a sixth-place finish in the F1 Sprint at the Chinese Grand Prix.

Asked whether he would be open to such a switch for the next race, his home race in Japan, Tsunoda responded enthusiastically.

“Japan? Yeah, 100%. I mean, the [Red Bull] car is faster,” said the driver.

Whether Red Bull indeed makes such a switch remains to be seen. But at the moment, the door seems to be open to such a move.