Max Verstappen or the field at the F1 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix?

Saturday began with an open door.

Max Verstappen then slammed it shut.

Friday’s dual practice sessions ahead of the Formula 1 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix saw Verstappen struggle in the upgraded RB20, allowing rivals at McLaren and Ferrari in particular to dream about capturing pole position on Saturday. Those teams threw everything they could at Verstappen at the historic circuit in Imola, McLaren in particular, but when the dust settled it was Verstappen again in pole position.

Leaving everyone else wondering just what they could do to catch him at the front.

“I mean, it’s almost impossible to overtake here, especially when the gaps are so small. Yeah, I mean, you always try and take advantage of other people’s mistakes and struggles. As bad as it sounds, you try and take advantage of those times,” said Lando Norris in the FIA Press Conference following qualifying. “I don’t know, Max hasn’t had the smoothest weekend, but I think if anyone doubted Red Bull or him coming back and doing a good job in qualifying, they’re a bit stupid.

“So, yeah, I think we expected them to be back on track. Annoying to miss out to him once again in qualifying. But we’re close and I think we’re happy as a team with how we’ve all performed. So if we can continue and have a strong race pace tomorrow like we had yesterday and like we had in Miami, then I think we can all look forward to a good race.”

Norris qualified third, but will start alongside Verstappen on Sunday. Oscar Piastri, who qualified second, will drop to fifth following a three-place grid penalty handed down following qualifying.

But as the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix beckons, the grid is again wondering just how they can catch Verstappen. Of course, that was the position the grid found themselves in ahead of the Miami Grand Prix, when Verstappen was starting on pole and had already scored a victory in the F1 Sprint Race. But it was not Verstappen who took the checkered flag the last time out, instead it was Norris.

Can he — or Piastri — catch Verstappen today?

“Honestly, I don’t know just yet. That’s what tonight’s for,” said Norris in the FIA Press Conference after qualifying. “So I haven’t really thought much about the race and what to plan for. In terms of [tires], I think myself and Red Bull are similar with what [tires] we have available for tomorrow. I think some other teams have different [tire] choices. But yeah, tonight, after all of these interviews and stuff, we kind of get to work and discuss our plans for tomorrow. But at the minute, I have no idea.”

In Piastri’s view, the start may tell the story.

“Yeah, I mean, if you can get into the lead, that usually helps out a bit early on,” said Piastri. “So, yeah, I mean, of course, you try to get a good start, but yeah, we’ll see.”

So another F1 Sunday begins where so many have before, with the grid and the paddock wondering if anyone will catch Verstappen.

Will it end the same way, or will someone be able to catch him at the start, and deliver an upset in Imola?

That is one of many storylines to follow this Grand Prix Sunday.

Can Ferrari send the Tifosi home happy?

Friday, it looked as if Ferrari was going to be that team to catch Verstappen. Charles Leclerc topped the timing sheets in both FP1 and FP2, giving the home fans something to dream about on Friday night.

But Saturday was a different story. Leclerc was P2 in both Q1 and Q2, but in the final session he could not find the lap time he needed, and settled for a P4 finish, with teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. behind him in P5. While both were promoted one spot due to Piastri’s penalty — meaning they will start alongside each other on the second row — it was not the Saturday they were hoping for.

“We knew that coming here it would be very tight,” said Leclerc following qualifying. “I struggled to be consistent with the [soft tires] and didn’t do my best quali to be honest, but we are still in a decent position to fight tomorrow and although overtaking in Imola is not easy, it can also be a race full of opportunities and we need to be fully focused.”

“We knew it would be a tough and tight session, where one tenth could have made the difference for many places and it was the case. Unfortunately today we were at the back of that ‘one-tenth’ group,” added Sainz. “Overall it was quite a strange qualifying: we were competitive in the practice sessions and also this afternoon until Q3, where we did not progress as expected.

“We cannot be happy with the final outcome as here overtaking is quite difficult and I would have preferred to have been further up the grid, but we also have to consider that the gap between us and McLaren is very tight.”

Given that overtaking is difficult at Imola, Ferrari does have a path to a strong start on Sunday. With Leclerc and Sainz starting in the second row, there is a game plan available where they can work together at the start to try and gain valuable track position on the first lap.

And while Saturday’s qualifying effort may have found Ferrari looking for more, race simulation data from F1.com holds that they might be best positioned to bring the fight to Red Bull:

So while the tifosi may have gone home Saturday night wondering what could have been, there is still a chance for Ferrari to send them home Sunday night in much higher spirits.

Will Mercedes show even more progress?

The main theme coming from the Mercedes camp Saturday evening?

Progress.

Having brought their own set of upgrades to Imola, Mercedes showed some promise Friday in the first two practice sessions. Saturday, as we have seen before, was a bit of a different story, as George Russell qualified sixth and Lewis Hamilton qualified eighth.

Still, according to the team you can see signs of “progress” if you look hard enough.

“When you look at the gap to the front, and our closest competitors around us, you can see progress,” said Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff in the team’s post-qualifying report. “P6 and P8 are not the positions we want to be. We’ve been saying that for a while, but we can see the advantage others have closing. It takes time to do that, so we must be patient and that’s the reality at the moment.

“We know we have developments in the pipeline that will improve the balance of the car. Even though our positions today are not good enough, we are pointing in the right direction. Tomorrow, we will be focused on maximising the package we currently have and aiming to score some decent points.”

For Russell, who finished an agonizing 0.001 behind fifth-place Sainz, he can see signs of progress in the W15.

“It is obviously annoying when you are one millisecond behind one of your competitors, but I think that was the maximum we had today. I think P6 is therefore a fair result. It is very difficult to pass here so unfortunately, I’m not forecasting lots of overtakes tomorrow. I hope to be proven wrong though and we can gain some positions,” said Russell. “The car is feeling much better than it has done in recent races. Of course it is all about lap times, so we just need to keep working away and improving. We’ve seen how others have progressed and that gives us encouragement.”

However, the Silver Arrows have a lot of ground to make up in the Constructors’ Championship standings. Currently Mercedes sit fourth in the standings, 60 points behind McLaren and a whopping 123 points behind second-place Ferrari.

As for Red Bull, they are currently 175 points clear of Mercedes.

Still, the progress is there, according to the team, even if there is still a long way to go.

“We’ve worked hard to try and close the gap to the front over the last few races,” said Andrew Shovlin, the team’s Trackside Engineering Director. “Encouragingly, there are signs we’re making progress, but we know we’ve still got a long way to go.”

Will Alpine?

Following qualifying Mercedes was not the only team talking about progress.

A similar theme was coming from the Alpine camp.

Both Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon advanced to Q2, making it three straight qualifying sessions where both Alpine drivers booked a spot in the second portion of qualifying. However, both Gasly and Ocon saw their Saturdays at Imola end there. Ocon will start the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in P12, with Gasly a few spots behind him in P15.

Still, as with Mercedes the progress is there if you look, according to Alpine.

“Today, like at the previous two events, both cars progressed through to Q2 with little issue. We are showing steady signs of progress, especially considering we have carried over the car from the last two events without any significant updates,” Julian Rouse, the team’s Sporting Director, in the team’s post-qualifying report. “We have been strong in Q1 at the last two races, which is a positive sign. Our focus is to keep furthering our understanding on how we can maximise performance in Q2 in the same way we are able to in Q1. Such are the fine margins in Qualifying at the moment, these details are extremely beneficial.”

Ocon also talked about the progress Alpine has made over the past few weeks following Saturday’s qualifying session.

Last time out at the Miami Grand Prix Alpine opened their account for the 2024 F1 season, with Ocon’s P10 finish giving the team their first point of the season.

Adding to that account is the team’s stated goal for Sunday.

“From where we started the weekend with the overall balance and feel of the car, we have made good progress as a team to improve things and put ourselves in the mix for the Grand Prix tomorrow,” added the Alpine driver.

We are in contention tomorrow starting from twelfth and fifteenth,” concluded Rouse. “We raced well in Miami from similar starting spots, and we will assess our options on strategy with the aim of making it back-to-back points scoring finishes.”

Can VCARB finish the job in their home race?

Ferrari is not the only team playing a “home game” this week.

So too is the team over at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team.

Their Faenza factory is just 15 kilometers from the historic Imola circuit, so while scarlet may be the predominant color you see at Imola, VCARB has their own legion of fans behind them this weekend.

And so far, Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo have given them plenty of reason to roar.

Both Tsunoda and Ricciardo advanced to Q3 in the same session for the first time all season, putting VCARB in position for solid points on Sunday. Ricciardo squeaked into Q3, edging out Red Bull driver Sergio Pérez for the tenth and final spot in Q3 by just 0.015 seconds. He will start the Emilia Grand Prix in ninth position on Sunday.

As for Tsunoda, he stormed into Q3 on the back of a tremendous run in Q2 that saw him finish the second segment of qualifying up in P2. While he could not match that same pace in Q3, he will start Sunday’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in seventh.

“A very good day for us. I think Yuki actually finished the session a little frustrated because he went quicker in Q2 than Q3, but nevertheless, a great effort from everybody here and back at both our bases to deliver a car that’s capable of getting both cars into Q3. It’s Daniel’s first Q3 of the season, and I’m sure it’s the first of many more,” said Alan Permane, the team’s Racing Director. “We have a good sensible plan of what we’re doing tomorrow. We’re in front of our closest competitors and the aim tomorrow is to of course bring both cars home in the points and consolidate our position in the championship.”

Currently, VCARB sits sixth in the Constructors’ Championship standings, with 19 points on the season. That sees the team 12 points clear of seventh-place Haas, and with both Tsunoda and Ricciardo starting ahead of the top Haas driver — Nico Hülkenberg, who will start ninth — there is a very good chance VCARB can pull away from Haas a bit on Sunday.

As for the team they are chasing? VCARB is currently 23 points behind fifth-place Aston Martin.

With a chance to cut into that deficit as well …

Can Aston Martin salvage something from the weekend?

This was a Sunday to forget for Aston Martin.

Fernando Alonso suffered a hard shut in FP3, which drew his session to an early end and sent the team into scramble mode to get his AMR24 ready for qualifying. While Alonso was able to take the green flag at the start of Q1, he could not do much more than that. He went off the racing line again early in Q1 as he worked through the twisty chicane at Tamburello, and failed to advance out of Q1 for the first time this season.

He will start in 19th on Sunday.

As for Lance Stroll, things were better … but not by much. Stroll was able to advance into Q2, but his day ended there, and he will start in P13 in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

Can they pick up some spots on Sunday? It might be tough to do given how overtaking comes at a premium at Imola.

“It has been a challenging day in Imola and we did not have the pace to compete for Q3. We have scored points in all the races so far this year and we will work hard to do the same tomorrow,” said Team Principal Mike Krack following qualifying.

“Lance’s Qualifying session was straightforward with clean and tidy laps, but Fernando was on the back foot after his accident in final practice. I want to recognise the huge effort of the team to repair Fernando’s car. It was a real race against the clock to be ready for Qualifying. Thank you to everybody involved. Now we focus our efforts on the race tomorrow.”

Aston Martin currently sit fifth in the Constructors’ Championship, 22 points behind Mercedes. But with both Russell and Hamilton starting inside the points — and Stroll and Alonso starting near the back of the field — there is a chance that number is bigger on Sunday night.

And that Aston Martin suddenly has to worry a little more about VCARB behind them.