NFL playoff picture: What does 49ers-Dolphins mean for AFC, NFC standings

The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins face off in a Week 16 matchup of two teams that are hanging around the playoff picture by a thread. Both teams face elimination, and if the 49ers win, it’s still possible both teams are officially eliminated from the playoff race by the end of their game. The game kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET and the Dolphins are a 1.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

49ers playoff picture

The 49ers are 6-8 and sitting in last place in the NFC West. They are two games back of the Rams and Seahawks and one game back of the Cardinals. They are in 11th place overall in the NFC, sitting three games back of the Commanders for the final wild card berth.

San Francisco needs a lot of help to make the playoffs, and could be eliminated before this game even starts. If the 49ers lose, they’re eliminated from the playoff race. But if the Cardinals (at Panthers) and the Commanders (vs. Eagles) both win in the 1 p.m. ET window, the 49ers will be officially eliminated. Additionally, if the Rams beat the Jets in the 1 p.m. window and the Seahawks beat the Vikings in the 4 p.m. window, the 49ers will be eliminated.

The 49ers have a road to the playoffs, but it requires an extensive mix of results outside of their own games. Along with winning all three of their remaining games (@ Dolphins, vs. Lions, @ Cardinals), the 49ers need the following:

WAS loses out (vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, @ Cowboys)
ATL loses weeks 16 & 18 (vs. Giants, vs. Panthers)
LAR or SEA loses out (Rams: @ Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks; Seahawks: vs. Vikings, @ Bears, @ Rams)
ARI loses week 16 or 17 (@ Panthers, @ Rams)

Dolphins playoff picture

The Dolphins head into Week 16 with a 6-8 record and sitting in second place in the AFC East. The Bills already clinched the division, so the Dolphins only chance at the playoffs is through a wild card berth.

Miami is in ninth place in the overall AFC standings, sitting 2.5 games back of the Broncos and Chargers. LA beat Denver on Thursday Night Football to open Week 16, which did not help Miami. If the Dolphins win their final three games (vs. 49ers, @ Browns, @ Jets), they could clinch a wild card berth with the following results:

IND loses a game (vs. Titans, @ Giants, vs. Jaguars)
LAC loses 2 games (@ Patriots, @ Raiders)

Had the Chargers lost to the Broncos on Thursday, the Dolphins would have only needed one more loss. Given how bad the Chargers remaining opponents are, the Dolphins’ window has tightened considerably.