Week 17 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks, plus an upset special

Happy holidays to all! This week marks Christmas, the start of Hanukkah, and the start of Kwanzaa, among other holidays to close out the 2024 calendar year. It also means we’re coming down the final stretch of the NFL regular season with two weekends of football remaining.

If you’ve managed to survive this long in your Survivor pool, it’s been a quiet few weeks for upsets. In Week 16, the Cardinals lost to the Panthers, which likely knocked out some folks in any of your remaining pools. The Bucs lost to the Cowboys, but that was not nearly as popular a pick.

I called the Cowboys upset in my weekly Survivor picks column, but otherwise things were pretty quiet. I was wrong on the Cardinals value pick. Neither of my trap picks (Colts, Bengals) ended up seeing much danger.

And with that, it’s now time for Week 17 picks. I’ve got my full picks below. There are plenty of options to consider and every week this season we’ll be breaking down the safest picks, the best value picks, the potential trap picks, and one upset pick if you feel the need to get a little wild with your pick to go against the grain.

Safest picks

Bills over Jets

There are not many truly safe picks remaining. Most people have used the Bills, but if you have not, this might be the week. If the Chiefs clinch the No. 1 seed.

Best value picks

Bucs over Panthers
Dolphins over Browns

The Bucs are coming off a disappointing loss to the Cowboys, but remain alive in the NFC South race. You could save the Bucs for Week 18 against the Saints, and I think it would offer similar bang for your buck if they win this week and have something to play for.

The Dolphins are an interesting one. They can be eliminated from the playoffs if the Chargers and Broncos both win. With LA and Denver both playing on Saturday (@ Patriots, @ Bengals, respectively), Miami will know ahead of their game if they have anything to play for. If they are eliminated by kickoff, they should be avoided this week.

Upset pick

Cardinals over Rams

NFC West games can be pretty wild. Arizona is eliminated from playoff contention, but can still play spoiler. LA doesn’t have much of a home field advantage, so I could easily see the surprise upset.

Trap picks

Colts over Giants

I’m seriously considering the Colts either this week against the Giants or in Week 18 against the Jaguars, but it’s a tough call. The Giants stink, but the Colts are an inconsistent squad. If the Colts lose or the Chargers beat the Patriots and the Broncos beat the Bengals, Indianapolis would be eliminated and having nothing to play for in Week 18. So, maybe it’s worth rolling the dice this weekend?