Current events have created a unique opportunity for the United States to swiftly weaken the regime in Tehran so Iranians can overthrow it. Very rapidly, though not surprisingly, Iranians’ attitude toward accepting external help in their quest to transform the country’s political system is changing because of the extreme, arbitrary, violence unleashed upon them by their leaders. Pleas emerging from ordinary Iranians occasionally able to circumvent the government’s internet shutoff since mid-January include: “We want to scream … it’s impossible to ignore this massacre” and “Don’t let them kill us.” Rising calls by Iranians for outside action are directed at U.S. President Donald Trump: “You encouraged them … don’t leave them alone.” Even direct military intervention is now requested “The (Iranian) people hope that the repressors, commanders and key figures of the Islamic regime will be targeted by drones and missiles.” Several Iranians have reached out, directly from within their country or through intermediaries who are safely outside, saying “Everyone is shocked by the regime’s savagery … arrests are still occurring, bodies are still being found, surgeons are still treating patients who are losing limbs and sight … help us end the suffering;” “If Trump acts now to create minimal security for people, they will return to the street;” “With some promised help, we can finish the job against the Ayatollah.” Even Iran’s leaders reportedly fear overthrow if the United States assists the Iranian people’s struggle for freedom.

Why Talks Again?

The Trump administration and its European partners reportedly are pressuring leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran to accept a three-part deal: Permanently abjure uranium enrichment, restrict the quality and range of ballistic missiles, and halt support for regional and global partners, proxies, and clients. To force such an agreement, the United States has been much augmenting its offensive capabilities in the Indian Ocean-Persian Gulf theater. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, with Carrier Air Wing 9 bolstered with additional F-35, F-18, and F-15 combat aircraft, and a three Guided Missile Destroyer Escort are ready to attack. A HIMARS missile system has been positioned in the region too. CENTCOM has begun coordinating plans with the Israel Defense Forces.

President Donald Trump is aggressively demanding consummation of offers made by Tehran last December and January when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his inner circle feared decapitation by U.S. firepower. Tehran has made such sweeping promises before only to renege on them. Even the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or nuclear deal, while it was in effect from 2015 to 2018, did not inhibit Iran’s military from clandestinely continuing that weaponry program. Even now, Iranian officials like Deputy for Foreign Policy Affairs of the Supreme National Security Council Secretariat Ali Bagheri insist that they “have no intention of transferring enriched nuclear stockpiles to any country, and the negotiations are not about such an issue at all.” Ballistic missile stockpiles have been restored to pre-war numbers, too, western intelligence services reckon. So Trump should not succumb to the temptation of a hollow pact. Rather, he could use Tehran’s stalling as a justification to attack. But to have lasting impact, Trump’s targets will need to be far broader than nuclear and ballistic facilities. Indeed after Trump promised, on 13 January, “Iranian patriots … help is on its way,” many in that nation are chanting his name hopefully.

President Trump often has spoken of regime change as the primary solution to international and domestic challenges posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” Trump reemphasized on January 17, charging that “What he (Khamenei) is guilty of, as the leader of a country, is the complete destruction of the country and the use of violence at levels never seen before.” And on January 29, Trump told news agencies that the government of Iran had been told yet again that it had to “stop killing protestors.” The U.S. President’s assessment is on target: The root problem for the Iranian people, other countries in the Middle East, and the global community of nations is the current, internally oppressive, externally aggressive, government. It arrived in power through the Islamic Revolution of 1978-79 promising to bring about a just society but then came to be guided by the intolerant fundamentalist ideology of velayat-e faqih or governance by a Shi‘ite Islamic high cleric. Only ouster of the theocracy can alter Iran and Iranians increasingly calamitous course.

An Increasingly Hostile Regime

Supreme Leader Khamenei and his brutal cohort have survived every uprising against the Islamic Republic not only by escalating violence on each occasion but also because until very recently ordinary Iranians viewed foreign intervention, even against a tyrannical regime, as an attack on national sovereignty. Last July, Khamenei’s senior advisor Kamal Kharazi observed that “the (12-day) war led to national unity” and retired IRGC commander Abdulkarim Alizadeh gloated “all those stupid attacks … have brought Iranians together.”

Yet, even prior to the recent uprising, a survey through June 2024 by the GAMAAN Foundation in the Netherlands found that a majority of Iranians seek either complete regime change or at least a major political transformation away from an Islamic republic. The recent uprising, like those in 2009, 2019, and 2022, reflected the deep dissatisfaction and distrust with which Iranians hold not only the current leadership but their entire theocratic system of government. Since mid-January, circumstances have become ever more desperate for most Iranians.

In response to the current domestic demands for change, Supreme Leader Khamenei and his security forces have subjected most urban centers to de facto martial law, with shoot to kill orders forcing residents back into their homes and shuttering most public activities. Officials in Iran’s Ministry of Health estimate more than 30,000 people killed by heavily armed troops and militiamen, at approximately 4,000 locations across the country. Government forces are being augmented by pro-Tehran Iraqi militias, Lebanese Hezbollah fighters, and Shi‘ite Afghan brigades like the Fatemiyoun who are recruited from Hazara refugees living in Iran who have fewer qualms of firing upon people to whom they have no ties. Relatives have to pay ransom, often amounting to several months’ wages, to local authorities to ransom bodies for burial.

Hardline mullahs or Shi‘ite clerics like Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami have denounced protesters as “Trump’s soldiers,” demanding they “all be put to death!” Iran’s top prosecutor Mohammad Movahedi has rejected any agreement with the Trump administration to halt execution of protesters because the regime is “just getting started” on meting out punishments. Rioters have been told by Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i among others that they have the option of “turning themselves in” to possibly receive “lighter punishment” or be charged “without the slightest leniency” as “enemies of God” subject to capital punishment. Even IRGC, Basij, and Artesh or army soldiers and Faraja or policemen who refuse to fire upon civilians are being sentenced to death. Human rights organizations watching the situation conclude that at least 300 children, adolescents, and students—all under the age of 18—remain in custody, corroboration for which has been provided to the Iranian press by Farshad Ebrahimpour who serves as deputy chairman of the parliamentary education commission. Parents find themselves unable to even determine in which prison their young offspring are held.

Punishment from Khamenei’s government is economic as well. Assets of anti-government activists are being seized by the authorities, without due process, allegedly to pay for damage incurred during the recent uprising. A country-wide digital blackout imposed by the government is crippling commerce, which has come to be highly dependent on the internet, at an estimated cost of $37 million per day. Routine fiscal activities like cash withdrawals, debit card payments, and credit transfers remain frozen to further penalize both the business community within which the recent protests began—at least 500,000 small entrepreneurs owners face going under—and the general population that joined the uprising. Basic food items are in dire short supply with prices rising even more sharply than after last December’s currency devaluation because resources now are being allocated exclusively as rewards for loyalty to the regime. Post-protests, many Iranians are struggling to put food on the table even as speak about having to prepare “for much more difficult days” at the wrath of their leaders.

Even reform-minded leaders like former President Mohammad Khatami, who supported previous demonstrations, have been persuaded by the government to make statements that regime preservation is the only option available to the public. Khatami now categorizes the recent uprising as “premeditated conspiracy” intended to destroy Iran. So they are no longer viewed by fellow citizens to be viable as potential leaders of Iran in a post-Islamic Republic era. Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the most prominent opposition figure in exile, dares not return to his homeland after almost five decades because he would be seized and put to death by the ayatollahs. Secretary of State Mario Rubio acknowledged this uncertainty of succession as part of geopolitical risk-taking to Congress on 28 January: “No one knows … other than the hope that there would be some ability to have somebody within their systems that you could work towards a transition.” Lack of a clear path away from the Islamic Republic system is part of the Iranian political incumbency’s gamble that Washington will decide to withhold fire.

Consequently, rather than taking the win and letting calm return, after gaining the upper-hand in January over the most pervasive anti-government protests in four decades, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is speeding up his long-term endeavor of transforming the Islamic Republic into a terror state to prevent its unraveling. However, in this singular quest for revenge, regime survival, and ideological fortification, Khamenei and other Iranian political elites are undercutting their own future for they are rapidly losing the public’s patriotism-based acceptance of internally-enforced repression over externally-induced liberty. Brutalized by the regime, with basic day-to-day necessities dwindling, a vast majority of Iranians face few options. Growing numbers of Iranians are realizing they can live and die in desperation without resisting further or, with foreign assistance, they can reengage in their quest for a better future sans their current leaders and religiopolitical system. Seeing no other recourse, many are turning to the United States in particular, calling on President Trump to “please help.” They do not expect the United States to come and liberate them, because they know that task is their responsibility. They hope, however, the U.S. leader will “fulfill his promise to the Iranian people (that) help is on the way.”

Iranians Seek Outside Assistance

Despite Trump’s initial inclination to do so, attacking the ayatollah’s regime during the protests that began on 28 December 2025 and were quashed by 17 January 2026 would have backfired. Ordinary citizens were revolting in the streets and, consequently, could have been unintended casualties of foreign fire in addition to the bullets already piercing them from their government’s forces. Supreme Leader Khamenei would have doubled down on allegations that protestors were agents of the United States and Israel, thereby pushing them to choose patriotism over change, while cracking down even more barbarically on them supposedly to protect Iran’s sovereignty.

During January, however, through their ongoing actions, Khamenei and his administrators have changed the situation on the ground and not, as sought, to their advantage. The previous nationalism that disfavored foreign intervention is dissipating swiftly as Iranians come to see outside firepower as the only means of disarming Khamenei’s enforcers and thereby giving citizens a fighting chance to oust their domestic oppressors. Eventually, even without U.S. assistance, Iranians will likely brave dying in large numbers to sweep aside the theocrats, IRGC, and other oppressors. Knowing the end is near, Iran’s government elites and their families are speeding-up illicit transfers of assets worth billions of dollars to sympathetic foreign countries and proxies, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, to flee into comfortable exile; indeed many have sent immediate family abroad to pave the way.

Yet when Trump changed his mind and held off on strikes in January, Ayatollah Khamenei and his hardline supporters came to view the current U.S. president in the same light as his immediate two predecessors in the Oval Office—delivering hollow words rather than consequential deeds. He holds Trump specifically responsible, “The latest anti-Iran sedition was different in that the U.S. President personally became involved” adding “We find the U.S. President guilty.” Warnings of violence against the United States and Israel generally and at President Trump specifically—IRGC Commander and Expediency Discernment Council (which advises the supreme leader) member Mohsen Rezaei threatened to “cut off his hand and finger”—have been ramped up. At present, even though the Iranian regime-initiated negotiations, they are demonstrating that their offer is a stalling tactic until they can eradicate domestic resistance and restock offensive ordnances. Responding to Trump’s mounting demands that Tehran comes “to the table” to “make a deal,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatens “firing back with everything we have.”

Iran has been rapidly rearming but its nuclear capability is non-existent, and its ballistic missiles and drone swarms have been neutralized previously by far-superior American and Israeli weapons, tactics, and military intelligence. Most of Iran’s allies, partners, and proxies in the Middle East have been defanged or are low on fighters and munitions after engaging unsuccessfully with U.S. and Israel during 2024 and 2025. Threats by Tehran of retaliation is more bluster than substance and will be thwarted by the additional THAAD and Patriot air defense systems recently moved into the region.

How the U.S. Can Assist Iranians

So, how could the United States help Iranians reignite their revolt against the Islamic regime and bring about a successful revolution while keeping Iran’s ordinary citizens out of foreign harm’s way and American boots off the ground? One path of assistance would be for U.S. forces to swiftly decimate the Islamic Republic’s repression command and control capabilities—leaders, enforcers, weapons, communications, transportation, funding—thereby providing the Iranian people with a reasonable possibility of success in deposing the reign of the ayatollahs. Success is more likely than before for U.S. intelligence analyses indicate Iran’s theocratic state is at its weakest in support and resources since taking power in 1979. And the United States can justify intervention through Pillar III of the 2005 United Nations Responsibility to Protect (R2P) commitment, even with United Nations authorization, which allows force “should peaceful means be inadequate and national authorities manifestly fail to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.”

There are several steps, “decisive” kinetic actions in President Trump’s own words, that the United States could take to help Iranians oust their rulers. Each prior attempt at ousting the theocracy has demonstrated increasingly enhanced organization of local, regional, and national anti-government resistance networks.

To successfully boost Iranian’s achieving regime change through revolt, multiple American maneuvers need to occur in tandem and be unwavering:

1. Impose total sanctions and an economic blockade to prevent supplies and reinforcements from reaching Khamenei’s regime.
2. Block all cash transfers within, into, and out of the country by hacking Iran’s government internet and financial institutions and then freezing or hijacking all accounts electronically, thus preventing payment of government troops, allies, and supporters.
3. Hack the databases of employees of the Iranian military and paramilitary forces and dox their names, addresses, personal details onto the internet so they fear retribution upon themselves and their families for doing the leadership’s bidding.
4. Disrupt, for the short-term, all electronic communications between government institutions—military and civilian—thereby crippling functionality and ability to counter a revolt.
5. Aerial bombardment of assets the regime uses to launch counter strikes and to suppress protests, including command and control, defensive and offensive capabilities (on ground, sea, and air), communications, airports, bases and barracks, light and heavy munition and equipment production and storage sites across the country—with several rounds of attacks a few days apart so equipment that survives each bombardment can be identified upon use and eliminated in next round.
6. Further reduce the risks posed by nuclear and ballistic materials through crippling that ordnance production, storage, and launch sites through aerial strikes.
7. Target regime leaders including clerical, political, military commanders at upper and middle levels for elimination or for extraction and eventual return to Iran for trial.
8. Convince, which should be easy to do, neighboring nations including Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Pakistan, not to permit any ethnic groups such as Kurds, Azeris, and Baluch, of Iran’s border provinces to break away as this would result in unrest within those countries too.
9. Augment alternative communication arrays like Starlink so Iranians can learn about actions by the United States against the Islamic Republic and work in tandem amongst themselves to push out the government and set up an interim administration.

Once the Islamic regime falls to its own people’s uprising, there are four important steps that Washington should take:

1. Refrain from selecting or imposing a new leader or leaders—let individuals within Iran or in exile who return to Iran convince the public and gain public office through elections—but ensure as well that new leaders are not hostile to other nations of the Middle East or to nations in the West.
2. Convince the new Iranian government to sign a deal forgoing development, manufacture, or acquisition of nuclear warheads and strictly limiting ballistic weapons and related military technologies—while continuing civilian nuclear energy programs—in exchange for lifting of economic sanctions.
3. Restore access to global financial and communication networks, release of assets that are frozen, and provide guidance in reestablishing civil society, rule of law, civilian infrastructure, supplies of basic commodities including water and food, and environmental restoration.
4. Provide guidance to the new Iranian government in reforming and de-ideologizing the IRGC, regular Army, Navy, and Airforce, Basij, Faraja or police, and MOIS or secret service.

A Positive Outcome

The people of Iran may be suppressed but are not cowed nor are they under illusions about their rulers’ self-serving approach toward the country and ill-will for most citizens. To help Iranians achieve change they so desperately seek, Washington needs to degrade and eliminate the regime’s personnel and resources—that have been utilized to violently quash legitimate protests—sufficiently and rapidly so that the public could overwhelm and depose the regime. The Trump administration can do so without getting dragged into a long war, deploying forces into the country, and repeating failure of nation-rebuilding as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq. No foreign boots on the ground will be needed, especially not American ones, as this would undermine the legitimacy of Iranians’ discontent which is unhappiness based on deep-rooted domestic issues of quality of life.

Much of Khamenei’s base is far from ideological; it consists of self-enriching centers such as the IRGC and its auxiliaries, the mullahs, even the upper levels of the civil service. They benefit from the regime’s widespread corruption. They will quickly peel off and seek self-preservation, even by switching sides, just as happened when the last shah fell. Iran already has internal and exile opposition political groups divided though they may be. More important, the country has a well-established civil service which is deeply disillusioned yet functional, an easily modifiable—to eliminate the theoretic branch—constitutional framework which includes elected executive and legislative branches and an appointed judiciary, and basic infrastructure and equipment including transportation, communications, heavy and light industry all albeit needing very considerable restoration with foreign aid. The presence of these core features would ensure citizens can gradually reverse the political, economic, environmental, and societal rot caused by the over four decades of theocratic rule.

By acting decisively and strategically in the near future, Washington can eliminate the incessant threats via weapons, proxies, and terrorism posed to the region and world by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Simultaneously, the United States can provide the Iranian people with an opportunity to set their country on a new path of well-being by helping to eradicate the current condition of “fear and death,” to quote President Trump’s words, in favor of a Republic of Iran. In sum, no deal with Ayatollah Khamenei would accomplish what the ouster of his regime will do.

Further Reading on E-International Relations