Welcome to The Iron Triangle, the Cipher Brief column serving procurement officers tasked with buying the future, Investors funding the next generation of defense technology, and policy wonks analyzing its impact on the global order.

COLUMN/EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — In its purest sense, autonomy is the condition of self-government. When we overlay that concept onto military machines and armed drones, the immediate fear is that we are outsourcing the moral weight of life and death to an algorithm. I’ve seen the Terminator series, so I know what you’re thinking. No, you don’t need to learn how to make a pipe bomb. It’s not as bad as you think… maybe.

However, the reality of military command is more nuanced. To understand autonomy in defense technology, I want to first be clear about how the military defines command.

Command is composed of three elements: authority, responsibility, and decision-making. Authority is the delegated power to make decisions and use resources. Responsibility is the legal and ethical obligation for everything a unit does or fails to do. And decision-making is the process of translating high-level intent into actionable orders.

Autonomy does not replace the commander; it enables the commander to aggregate and disaggregate aspects of Command and Control (C2). Specifically, autonomy allows a commander to delegate control to a machine while maintaining command. However simple this sounds, it is a monumental mindset shift for many commanders. To be successful, this will require reshaping some commanders’ understanding of technology.

To use autonomous systems appropriately, the commander assigns a framework of authority. This authority might be a benign task, such as “Conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in order to identify the enemy within [defined area].”

On the opposite end of the spectrum, such as in high-intensity, peer-conflict scenarios where there is no civilian presence, “Identify and destroy targets in [defined area].” The authorities a commander assigns to autonomous systems will depend heavily on their risk calculations and dozens of other factors.

The Rewards: Why Accept the Risk?

Remember that all responsibility for the mission remains with the commander. Given the potential risks outlined above, why would a commander accept responsibility for an autonomous system’s performance? Because autonomous systems will be required not only for survival, but to fight and win on a modern, transparent battlefield.

Operational Tempo (OPTEMPO). Autonomy denies the adversary the ability to reset during what would otherwise be natural lulls in combat operations. It enables a constant and consistent pressure campaign that human operators, limited by fatigue, cognitive bandwidth, and resources, cannot sustain.

Force Protection and Attrition. We must shift our thinking toward lifecycle protection. Autonomy allows us to project power and achieve effects without putting a human in the loop–where they are most vulnerable.

Cognitive Decoupling. By reducing the pilot-to-platform ratio from 1:1 to 1:Many, autonomy frees the commander’s mind to focus on the strategic rather than the tactical, effectively reducing cognitive load.

The Implications: The Path Forward

To move autonomy to battlefield reality, we must address three critical pillars:

Low-Cost Near-Exquisite Systems: Commanders cannot get comfortable with autonomy if they are afraid to lose their assets. We must continue to move away from high-cost platforms toward mass-producible, near-exquisite systems that allow for the thousands of training iterations required to build trust.

Interoperability: A quadcopter built in a Florida garage must immediately work cohesively with a bespoke system from a big defense prime. If autonomous systems cannot operate across-domains, if they aren’t vendor-agnostic, and if they can’t operate as one element of a swarm ecosystem, they aren’t force multipliers; they are a logistics burden.

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End Vendor Lock-In: Continuous innovation is the only defense against adversarial countermeasures, and rigid multi-year contracts stifle technology iteration. We need a development operations model for hardware, where field feedback is transferred directly to engineers, rapid improvements are made, and systems are re-fielded. Vendors need to be held accountable–by losing profitable contracts–when they fail against this standard.

For the procurement officer: Stop buying platforms and start buying ecosystems that support delegated authority, scalability, and innovation. Establish criteria for continuously evaluating technology and hold companies accountable. I commend the Department of Defense for acknowledging this need with more flexible contract mechanisms, but more can be done. There are many small, innovative technologies that might make a substantive difference if they are given an opportunity.

For the investor: Look for companies whose technology is not dependent on specific hardware, and for those who are open to rapidly partnering with other OEMs to overcome technical limitations. There are an unprecedented number of small defense technology firms in today’s ecosystem and there will be a consolidation within two-to-five years. If a company insists that every capability is vertically integrated, there is a strong likelihood that they will be outpaced by an up-and-comer or a conglomeration who is more flexible.

For the policy wonk: The debate isn’t about whether machines will make decisions, but how we legally and ethically define the authority we give them. Setting conditions that promote and reward innovation will de-risk this transition now. We also need to think about the resources we provide the services for training, and how rules of engagement stack against those of our adversaries. This will all lead to better outcomes when it counts.

The coming years will be a period of creative destruction for the defense industry. The era of proprietary technology is ending, replaced by an ecosystem where the only constant is change. We must reward the agile and hold the stagnant accountable. Whether it’s a garage-born startup or a legacy prime, the winners will be those who embrace the DevOps of hardware and the radical transparency of interoperable swarms. Autonomy is the catalyst; how we choose to fund, buy, and govern it will determine who leads the global order for the next century.

Joey Gagnard is a Cipher Brief columnist who regularly shares his perspective on national security and technology via his Iron Triangle column.

The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.

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