Elections 2026 live: Labour set for historic defeat in Wales; Starmer vows to fight on as Reform surge in English council elections

Welsh Labour leader and first minister Eluned Morgan out of Senedd after losing seat

Bethan McKernan

Bethan McKernan is the Guardian’s Wales correspondent.

Eluned Morgan, Wales’s Labour first minister, has lost her seat in the Senedd elections, the first major indicator of an expected near-wipeout for the party that has led Cymru since devolution began in 1999.

Labour finished fourth in the total vote share, with three of the six seats availabe in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency going to Plaid Cymru, two to Reform, and one to the Conservatives.

Support for the party has been ebbing for some years, but observers believe Keir Starmer’s general election win in 2024 sounded the death knell for Welsh Labour, as it left the Cardiff Bay administration unable to blame a Conservative-led UK government for perceived failings.

In an extraordinary admission of defeat before a single constituency result was declared, Labour released a statement saying it expected to return just 10 MSs out of 96 available seats in the newly expanded Senedd chamber. The party previously never held fewer than 26 seats in a 60 seat chamber.

Polls have consistently suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck and neck in the race to become the biggest Senedd party.

On Friday, as ballot papers were still being counted, sources from both parties suggested that Plaid Cymru has emerged as the front runner, propelling the Welsh nationalist party into a non-coalition government for the first time and making a Welsh independence referendum a future possibility.

Key events

The Green Party has won its second council of these elections, gaining an overall majority in Hastings, East Sussex.

A short time ago it was announced that the Greens had won control of Norwich, which was the first council it had taken in these elections.

Hastings was previously a Green minority administration following the 2024 election. They became the largest party in the council with 12 councillors, followed by nine from Labour, six from Your Party, and five Conservatives. The borough council had a Labour majority from 2010 to 2022.

Council leader Glenn Haffenden said the results were “beyond our wildest dreams.”

“I think Zack (Polanski) has been one of our biggest reasons as to why we’ve done so well in Hastings,” Haffenden said. “I don’t want to put down our hard work we’ve done in Hastings, either. But I think Zack speaking nationally to people that are generally struggling with the cost of living, the broken Britain we’re seeing at the moment – it’s pushed us forward.”

We are expecting to hear from Nigel Farage at around 8pm. He is speaking in Essex following local election results that have seen his Reform party win more than a thousand council seats and gain control of at least eight councils, with some results still to come.

It has been a crushing set of local and devolved elections for Labour, with Reform making huge gains across the country and the Greens winning in London. Keir Starmer is under pressure to announce a timeline for his departure – yet he insists he will not walk away.

Pippa Crerar and Kiran Stacey discuss the results on the Guardian’s latest Politics Weekly podcast. Listen at the link below, or wherever you get your podcasts.

More Labour MPs have been calling for Keir Starmer to go, or to set out a timetable for his departure. These are backbenchers, though not all of them are to the left of the party.

Simon Opher, Labour MP for Stroud called for an “orderly transition” away from Starmer’s leadership, echoing Richard Burgon’s statement.

“This is an existential moment for both our party and our country. The message from voters could not be clearer: things have to change … We need an orderly transition that brings together the very best talents across the Labour Party to deliver the change this country so desperately needs and to stop the far right from entering Number 10.”

Connor Naismith, Labour MP for Crewe and Nantwich, said the results were “existential for the Labour Party” and that “Keir Starmer needs to set out a timetable for his departure”.

Ruth Jones, MP for Newport West and Islwyn, told Times Radio Keir Starmer needs to “consider his position” and be more “reticent” about saying he’ll be “carrying on forever” as Labour leader.

As my colleague Andrew noted earlier, no member of the government has resigned and no minister has called for Starmer to go. Technology Secretary Liz Kendall told BBC News: “He’s not gonna go, and he not gonna set a timetable. People want us focused on their jobs and their future not our jobs and our future.”

Richard Burgon, who is on the left of the Labour party and was a Jeremy Corbyn loyalist under his tenure as Labour leader, has released a statement saying that Labour’s local election results have “Keir Starmer’s name written all over it”.

The MP for Leeds East said: “In East Leeds and up and down the country, hard-working Labour councillors and other Labour representatives lost their seats today after being badly let down by the terrible decisions of this Labour leadership, despite serving their communities so well.

“Their defeat has Keir Starmer’s name written all over it. Too many people now feel Labour is no longer on their side and no longer shares their values.

“The consequences of these elections for our party are stark. Labour faces an existential crisis, and there is a real danger we may never recover. What’s more, we risk opening the door to a Nigel Farage government. No progressive party faced with that threat can simply carry on regardless until it is too late to stop it happening.

“It is clear that Keir has fought his last election as Labour leader and, deep down, he will know it.

“The party should now work towards a timetable for an orderly transition to a new leader by the end of this year.

Reform UK on 27% national equivalent vote in locals, says Sky, with Tories 20%, Labour 15% and Greens and Lib Dems both 14%

Andrew Sparrow

Sky News has released its national equivalent vote (NEV) figures (see 3.28pm) – its estimate for what the share of the vote would have been if all parts of Britain had been voting yesterday in line with the trends seen in those parts of England where voting did take place.

The figures are:

Reform UK: 27% (down 5 points from 32% last year)

Conservatives: 20% (up 2 points from 18% last year)

Labour: 15% (down 4 points from 19% last year)

Greens: 14% (up 7 points from 7% last year)

Lib Dems: 14% (down 2 points from 16% last year)

On the basis of these figures, technically you could argue that Reform UK are going backwards. But good luck trying to persuade anyone in the party of that, given the number of seats they are winning.

Sky’s Ed Conway showing the NEV figures Photograph: Sky News

Sky News also presented seat projection figures, showing what would happen if there were a general election and everyone voted on that basis. The figures were:

Reform UK: 284

Labour: 110

Conservatives: 96

Lib Dems: 80

On that basis, Reform would be well short of a majority. But they would be able to government with Tory support.

That’s all from me for today. Hayden Vernon is taking over now.

Starmer pays tribute to outgoing Welsh first minister Eluned Morgan

Keir Starmer has issued a statement paying tribute to Eluned Morgan. He said:

Eluned Morgan has been a formidable first minister and tireless champion for Wales.

She broke barriers and has never stopped fighting for families in the communities she loves.

Together, we have worked to lift children out of poverty, cut hospital waiting lists, and create thousands of new jobs.

I want to thank Eluned Morgan for the over 30 years of service she has already given to our country and our party.

Reform UK gains Thurrock from Labour

Reform UK has gained Thurrock from Labour. Here are the results.

Thurrock results Photograph: Guardian

FPTP turning local elections into ‘random lottery’ because results not proportionate, campaigners say

The Electoral Reform Society, which campaigns for proportional representation (PR), has claimed that yesterday’s elections have produced “a string of wildly unrepresentative results” because of the first past the post (FPTP) voting system being used in contests where multiple parties are competitive.

It has produced these examples.

In Sutton, the Liberal Democrats received almost every seat on the council (92.7%) on a minority share of the vote (43.7%), while Reform UK received only 3.6% of the seats despite winning almost a fifth of the vote (19.8%), and Labour’s 6.5% of the vote yielded only 1.8% of the seats.

In Wandsworth, we saw a ‘wrong winner election’ as the Conservatives won more seats than Labour despite getting fewer votes. The Conservatives picked up 50% of the seats on the council with just 29.9% of the vote, whereas Labour’s 32.1% of the vote translated into 48.3% of the seats.

In Havering, Reform UK picked up 70.9% of the seats on just over a third of the vote share (36.3%).

In Hammersmith and Fulham, Labour won over three quarters of the seats (76%) on little over a third (37.4%) of the vote.

n Kensington and Chelsea, the Conservatives won over two thirds (68%) of the council seats on less than half (46%) of the vote.

Willie Sullivan, director of campaigns at the ERS, said:

What we have seen in these elections is the first past the post voting system, which is designed for two parties, failing to cope with the multi-party way people are voting – and that is leading to wildly unrepresentative results.

For instance, we have seen some parties take over 90% of the seats on a council on a minority share of the votes and even a ‘wrong winner’ result. Distorted results like these will make elections seem more like a random lottery to voters than a reflection of how they actually voted. That is bad for trust in politics, bad for representation and bad for local democracy.

Welsh Labour leader and first minister Eluned Morgan out of Senedd after losing seat

Bethan McKernan

Bethan McKernan is the Guardian’s Wales correspondent.

Labour finished fourth in the total vote share, with three of the six seats availabe in the Ceredigion Penfro constituency going to Plaid Cymru, two to Reform, and one to the Conservatives.

Polls have consistently suggested Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are neck and neck in the race to become the biggest Senedd party.

Rhun ap Iorwerth says Plaid Cymru ‘ready to serve’ not just Plaid voters, but ‘all of Wales’

Steven Morris

Steven Morris is a Guardian correspondent covering Wales.

In his speech after securing his seat in the Bangor Conwy Môn constituency of north Wales, the Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said it had been a privilege to serve the community he had been raised in – Ynys Môn, the island of Anglesey.

He continued:

Now be elected to represent this wider constituency that has also been a big part of my life will be an equal privilege and I promise that as part of a great team of Plaid Cymru Senedd members we will work every day to the best of our ability to represent the people of Bangor Conwy Môn.

Now today is about the future of our communities here and our nation as a whole. We have offered leadership locally as we offer leadership to all of Wales.

As the story of this election has emerged today, it has become clear that Wales has demanded change of leadership.

My sense of service to my community and my belief in our nation drives me every single day and Plaid Cymru is ready to serve, not just those who entrusted their vote to us here but all of the citizens of Wales.

Helen Jenner, the deputy leader of Reform in Wales, who won a seat in the same constituency said she would serve with integrity, honesty and transparency. She said:

One thing we’ve heard on the doorstep throughout this campaign is how much people are crying out for change. After 26 years of managed decline here in Wales, people wanted a new vision, a new ambition.

Tory candidate Janet Finch-Saunders told the Plaid and Reform winners: “I will be watching you, each and everyone of you.”

Rhun ap Iorwerth and his wife, Llinos, at the count at the Arena, Venue Cymru, in Llandudno. Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

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