With mere days left until the WNBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) extension with the players expires, there does not seem to be a resolution coming any time soon. The WNBA’s most recent offer to the Players’ Union leaked last week, and included max salaries around $1 million but lacked the robust revenue-sharing program the players desire.

In an update from ESPN, negotiations will continue over the Thanksgiving holiday and through the weekend in order to try and come to a resolution. Yet, with time ticking, it’s hard not to think about the ramifications of this holdout between the sides continuing beyond that.

While the sides can continue to negotiate past the deadline in what’s called “status quo” — everything stays the same as the current deal — not extending the deadline again could mean a work stoppage is looming. Even so, going beyond Nov. 30 will ultimately begin to shift timelines in free agency. This would affect current teams and players, of course, as teams try to build rosters while over 80% of the league are free agents. Yet, the two teams that may be affected most may just be the two teams that haven’t even played in the WNBA yet — Toronto and Portland.

Using last year’s expansion with the Golden State Valkyries as a template, the expansion draft was announced at the beginning of November, which has obviously come and gone this year with no announcement. Golden State was informed of the rules around the same time, per ESPN, had about a month to prepare for it, and were given the lists of protected players about a week and a half before. The draft itself occurred on Dec. 6 of 2024.

Through that timeline, we can assume that Toronto and Portland will also get a month to prepare, but a date for the expansion draft cannot be set until the new CBA is locked in. The rules of expansion drafts and free agency will be part of that contract, making it impossible to move forward while negotiations are still ongoing (or paused). Toronto and Portland will presumably learn of the rules, have a few weeks to prepare, and then have their expansion draft. Based on the last time there was a two-team expansion draft, the other 13 teams will likely be able to protect 5 players each. It’s unclear whether free agents will be included in those protections.

It will be a little more difficult to prep this year, given that there are two teams in the draft, plus the high number of free agents who could just sign with other teams even if they are chosen. Per ESPN, the expansion franchises say they are “working with more questions than answers.”

While Toronto and Portland should probably just bank on roster building through free agency and the official draft as opposed to the expansion draft, for these reasons, it still puts them at a disadvantage. First, it doesn’t seem likely that there will be much to pick from in the expansion draft, given the free agency market being so large and there being two expansion teams. Then they need to scout and prepare for free agency on top of that, knowing how wide the market will be with so many players available.

To top all of that off, Toronto and Portland don’t even know 100% where they will be drafting in the first round of April’s WNBA draft. The Draft Lottery broadcast said that the two teams will decide who picks No. 6 and No. 7 based on a coin flip “at a later date.” So, they can’t even scout for the draft with certainty.

The longer the CBA negotiations go, the more condensed this entire timeline becomes as well. The league is preparing for a scenario, per ESPN, in which the expansion draft, free agency, and WNBA draft all happen between the months of March and April — which is wild. Yet another aspect in which Toronto and Portland would be held to a disadvantage, given that they’d have more to do in such a short period of time. This would happen in an attempt to avoid delaying the start of the 2026 WNBA season, which cannot even be shifted due to the FIBA Women’s World Cup taking place in October. 2026 is already going to be a condensed WNBA season with a strict end date due to this.

Although it seems like there is a lot of time between now and the start of the 2026 WNBA season to figure this all out, it’s actually the opposite, and the two expansion teams have even more incentive than the rest to hope this all gets resolved sooner rather than later.