OK, we have about 10% of the season under our belts and some trends have formed.
Will they hold? Wish I knew, but I am going to jump on one of them as part of today’s MLB Picks.
Season Record 5-8-1, -3.55 Units
Rockies at Astros
The Astros have lost eight in a row and sunk to the bottom of the AL at 6-11, but it’s entirely the fault of their battered pitching staff.
Cy Young candidate Hunter Brown is on the IL, probably until June. NPB import Tatsuya Imai had to leave his last start with an injury after walking 4 of the 5 batters he faced. Cristian Javier also recently landed on the IL, probably a good thing after his rough start. They’ll turn today to Colton Gordon making his 2026 MLB debut. He pitched a bit for Houston last year when they also could not keep anyone healthy, and it did not go terribly well. In 14 starts and 20 total appearances he had a 5.34 ERA and 1.42 WHIP with a 19% K%. Gordon’s fastball sat at just 91 with a Stuff+ rating of 90. He does however have a plus slider (113 Stuff+) and his command numbers are pretty good. Can a rather blah combo like this shut down a lousy offense like the Road Rockies? Maybe.
On the side of the ball though the Astros bats are mostly cooking as they have a 131 wRC+ that ranks second in MLB. Yordan Alvarez has shown that when he can stay on the field he’s an absolute terror as he’s off to a .321/.487/.714 start with six homers and a ridiculous 21.1% BB% to 10.5% K% combo. Giving him all those free passes has not worked well for opponents as Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Cam Smith and Joey Loperfido all have an early wRC+ of at least 118.
And the Astros do not face the stiffest test tonight as the Rockies will start Michael Lorenzen. I liked this signing for the team given the goal in Colorado is to somehow get enough innings out of their starters without overtaxing any younger and more promising arms they can develop. But he’s just not that good at this stage of career as he has an 8.36 ERA and 2.14 WHIP and it hasn’t even gotten warm yet at Coors. The F5 number is kind of high, but the Astros have really cashed on those so far this year at 13-3 with a 61.7% ROI. With this pitching matchup and the Astros hot bats, I like them to score early and often.
Over 8.5 (-113 BetRivers)
Mets at Dodgers
The Mets have gotten off to a disconcerting 7-10 marked mostly by an inept offense. So help me it’s about the Elenty billionth time in my many years of Mets fandom that they feel buried the minute they give up a run. But it’s not McLean’s fault as he looks every bit the future ace with a 2.70 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through three starts.
Yeah, I know he’s facing Dodgers ace Yoshi Yamamoto and the best lineup in MLB. But. McLean has a stellar 31.3% K% and he has 8 K’s in two of those starts. I think he puts the team on his back tonight and comes up with a big performance and at least keeps them even through five innings.
Mets F5 +0.5 (+100 Caesars)
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