The order for the 2026 NBA Draft has finally been determined after the long-awaited lottery drawing. The Washington Wizards will have the first overall pick, while the Utah Jazz choose second, the Memphis Grizzlies pick third, and the Chicago Bulls will have the fourth selection. The first round of the draft will be held on Tuesday, June 23, while the second round will be the following day.

The Wizards entered the lottery with a 14 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick. The stakes of this drawing were even higher with lottery reform coming to the NBA Draft next year to address the league’s purported tanking crisis. Every team that moved into the top-four should consider themselves a big winner thanks to the four elite prospects sitting at the top of this class.

Let’s do an instant mock draft with order settled. This is how we see the first-round playing out after the Wizards come on the clock at No. 1 overall.

1. Washington Wizards – AJ Dybantsa, F, BYU

NBA scouts dream about finding big wing shot-creators like Dybantsa. The 6’9 forward is an incredibly fluid athlete who puts consistent pressure on the rim with his long, coordinated strides attacking the basket. Dybantsa can create a good look for himself in a pinch with the bend to turn the corner on drives, the power to finish through contact, and the length to hit shots over contests. His shot profile is a bit mid-range heavy, but his ability to get to his spots and make tough turnarounds or touch finishes should have plenty of utility in the playoffs when the game slows down. He’s a capable three-point shooter, though teams will want to see him improve his volume once he enters the league. His defensive impact also feels muted for a player with such great physical tools. Dybantsa is built to stockpile points and come up with clutch buckets in the NBA for more than a decade.

2. Utah Jazz – Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas

Peterson failed to meet sky-high expectations entering Kansas this season due to lingering cramping and soft tissue strains in his lower body that often kept him out of close games late. As long as those aren’t long-term injuries, the 6’5 guard is still a fantastic prospect who brings scoring punch, volume three-point shooting, defensive playmaking, and some shot creation to any backcourt. Peterson can play on or off the ball and still put immense pressure on opposing defenses as a scorer. He offered real movement shooting as a freshman, zooming around screens and hitting three-pointers with volume and deep range. He showed he could still cook bigger and slower defenders off the bounce, but it often felt like he bailed out of drives to take mid-range shots. Peterson’s playmaking vision is a real question if he’s going to be used as a de facto point guard. Will the rim attacking he flashed in high school show up again when he gets fully healthy? Even with some questions, Peterson projects to be a plus on the defensive end with great three-point shooting, and that’s a valuable prospect in any context.

3. Memphis Grizzlies – Cameron Boozer, F, Duke

Boozer is the best prospect in the draft for my money due to his combination of lighting-quick processing, brute strength, shooting touch, and all-around offensive versatility. The 6’9, 250-pound forward can drive like a guard, space the floor beyond the arc like a wing, and clean the glass like a big. Giving Boozer the ball is a one-way ticket to creating a good look, whether he’s doing it himself or finding an open teammate. He’s a bit slow footed and doesn’t project to be a plus defensively, but his ability to create efficient offense every time the ball touches his hands overrides those questions. How many times is the smartest player on the floor also the strongest while being a 40 percent three-point shooter? He should be an All-NBA caliber player with brains, brawn, and skill.

4. Chicago Bulls – Caleb Wilson, F, North Carolina

Wilson combines elite athleticism and a non-stop motor to make jaw-dropping plays all over the floor. The 6’10 forward dunked absolutely everything around the rim this year with 67 slams in 24 games, but there’s more to his offensive game than that. He will be a threat in the post with the ability to hit tough mid-range turnarounds, and his passing is a major plus for someone so big and so athletic, too. Wilson’s defense will be his calling card early in his career, and he could be special on that end. His ground coverage is excellent, he has the length and bounce to offer secondary rim protection and be a plus on the defensive glass, and he consistently makes extra efforts. The big hole in Wilson’s game is his three-point shot, which is non-existent right now. Even with the outside shooting concerns, Wilson plays like a runaway freight train on both ends in the best way possible. He feels like a stronger prospect than the typical No. 4 overall pick, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if he goes even higher than that after recent reports that some front offices prefer him over certain members of the big-three.

5. Los Angeles Clippers – Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois

Wagler entered Illinois as the No. 150 recruit in the rankings, and left as a lock to be a top-10 draft pick after just one season. The freshman started to ascend once he was moved into an on-ball role mid-way through the season, which allowed him to flash his fantastic pull-up shooting chops, his capable playmaking, and his turnover avoidance. Wagler loves to get into his step-back three, especially when a big switches onto him, but he’s equally adept at spacing the floor and shooting it with range off the catch. He’s not exactly Tyrese Haliburton as a passer, but the Illini guard was able to hit his talented teammates in stride all year while avoiding costly live-ball turnovers. There are still moments where you can see why Wagler was so under-the-radar as a recruit. He’s not a great athlete, and ended the year with zeros — a shocking stat for a 6’6 one-and-done lottery pick. He didn’t do much on defense, though that could be partially explained with Illinois’ conservative scheme that finished dead-last in defensive turnover rate. Do teams trust him to drive and finish at the rim against NBA athletes? Wagler’s skill set still feels pretty malleable as a tall guard who can shoot and won’t make a bunch of mistakes. This is the best story in this draft class, and it keeps getting better.

6. Brooklyn Nets – Kingston Flemings, G, Houston

Flemings stood out in a loaded freshman guard class for his quick-twitch athleticism and two-way aptitude. The 6’3 guard plays bigger than his size with a strong chest, impressive lateral quickness, and disruptive hands on the defensive end. The Cougars star is so hard to contain as a driver with the standstill burst to get by the first defender, and awesome change of direction ability when he’s attacking off the bounce. Flemings is at his best as a scorer elevating for mid-range shots, but his driving is most dangerous because of his live-dribble passing ability. NBA teams will want to see Flemings up his three-point volume, prove he can finish over NBA rim protectors, and get to the line more often. He still has enough bankable NBA skills that he should be a good lead guard for a long time.

7. Sacramento Kings – Darius Acuff, G, Arkansas

John Calipari has had a lot of great freshman guards over the years, but I’m not sure any of them were more productive than Acuff. The Detroit native forced his way into national conversations with his takeover scoring ability and proficient playmaking against top competition all season. Acuff isn’t the biggest guard at 6’3, but he consistently found ways to beat the opposing defense, whether he was ripping three-pointers from deep, making tough shots off the bounce from the middle of the floor, or getting off the ball and spacing the floor for his teammates. Acuff carried such a huge offensive burden for his team this year that it makes sense that his defensive tape wasn’t too impressive. He also just doesn’t have good tools defensively, so he’ll remain a question on that end of the floor. His finishing over NBA length is also a concern after making only 59 percent of his rim attempts this season. If Acuff really is a 44 percent three-point shooter he showed this year, he should be able to overcome any other physical limitations. That just feels like a big bet this high in the lottery.

8. Atlanta Hawks – Mikel Brown Jr., G, Louisville

Brown was slowed down by a pesky back injury throughout the year, but he had some of the best flashes in the class when he was healthy. The 6’5 point guard combines high-volume three-point shooting, creative passing, and the ability to produce paint touches that gives him the chance to be an offensive engine at the next level if everything goes right. Brown doesn’t settle for mid-range shots like Flemings or Acuff, and while it can lead to more game-t0-game variance in performance, it could help him come out ahead over a longer sample. He can generate three-point looks out of thin air that sometimes go in, or can at least lead to offensive rebound chances. He surpassed expectations as a driver, and his playmaking is astounding in its best moments, finding passing angles few other players would see. Brown’s defensive tape wasn’t all that good, but he does have a little more height to fall back on than some of the other guards in this class. The back injury is scary and the shot-selection probably needs to be reigned in a tad, but the upside for an All-Star level offensive guard is there.

9. Dallas Mavericks – Brayden Burries, G, Arizona

Burries is a well-rounded shooting guard without an elite skill to fall back on. He fits the definition of a ‘two-way player’ as a strong 6’5 guard who can play through contact on both ends while also offering floor spacing with a 39 percent three-point shot. He’s a good transition player with a deep bag of scoring moves in the open floor, including pull-up threes. He can lock up at the point of attack on the defensive end, and his rebounding is better than most two guards with his offensive gifts. Two things appear to limit his upside right now: he lacks elite burst as a ball handler, and he’s not yet a good enough playmaker to demand super high usage. Burries is a one-and-one, but he’ll also be a 21-year-old rookie with a September 2005 birthday, making him a couple months older than junior wing Dailyn Swain out of Texas. Burries should be rock solid, but it’s fair to question his upside.

10. Milwaukee Bucks – Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan

Lendeborg’s winding road in college basketball started at the JUCO level, made a stop at UAB, and concluded with a national championship run at Michigan where he looked like the best player in the NCAA tournament. He could have been a first-round pick in last year’s draft, but there’s no doubt the super-senior forward helped himself with one more year of school. Yes, Lendeborg will be a 24-year-old rookie, but he also offers a rare two-way skill set and tremendous physical profile worthy of top-10 consideration regardless of age. At 6’9, 240 pounds, with a 7’4 wingspan, Lendeborg has the length of an NBA center with the skill to play out on the perimeter. He made 37.2 percent of his threes (on 180 attempts) and 82.4 percent of his free throws this season to prove his shooting touch. He’s always been a good passer who won’t be a ball stopper. He’s awesome on the defensive end, showing wing stopper abilities at the point of attack while also rushing in for chasedown blocks and pick-sixes when he sees an opening. Lendeborg also seems to have the right mentality as he readies for the pros. His age caps his upside a bit, but this is should still be a really good player right away.

11. Golden State Warriors – Aday Mara, C, Michigan

We had Mara as a preseason one-and-done lottery pick when he first came over from Spain to enroll at UCLA, but instead he sat on Mick Cronin’s bench for two years. The whole world saw what Mara could do when he helped lead Michigan to a national championship, and it’s possible no player helped their NBA stock more during March Madness. Mara will be one tallest and longest players in the NBA from day one standing at 7’3 with a reported 7’7 wingspan. He has an easy translation as a rim protector who specializes in drop coverage, but he doesn’t have much ball screen versatility because of his slow feet. On the offensive end, Mara can juice transition opportunities with his excellent outlet passing, and also serve as a hub in the halfcourt who can zing the ball to open cutters. He’ll have scoring utility as a lob threat, and he has flashes of post moves and scoring touch inside. Mara doesn’t shoot the ball well from the perimeter, and was also a very bad free throw shooter before making strides in the second half of the season. This might seem a little high, but the success of multi-year college bigs in the lottery like Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey should give teams confidence that Mara can translate.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jayden Quaintance, F/C, Kentucky

It requires a leap of faith to draft Quaintance. The big man tore his ACL in Feb. 2025, and it resulted in a lost season this year at Kentucky where he only played four uninspiring games. The last time we saw him healthy, though, Quaintance looked like an elite defender as a 17-year-old freshman at Arizona State. While he’s a tad short for a center, Quaintance has long arms, huge hands, a solid base, and a strong chest to play bigger than his size. His ground coverage is phenomenal and should give him maximum coverage versatility against the pick-and-roll. He can also wall up at the rim as a shot-blocker, and he’s a great rebounder on both ends. Aside from putbacks, there are real questions about how his game translates offensively. He’s not a shooter, and while there are some ball handling flashes on the tape, it shouldn’t be considered a strength. Quaintance might have been a top-5 pick if he was healthy this year. Instead, he feels like one of the riskier prospects available, but one that could turn into a major steal.

13. Miami Heat – Karim Lopez, F, New Zealand Breakers

Lopez has been on NBA radars for years as a big forward who offers ball handling, scoring upside, and some defensive versatility. A native of Mexico who spent this season playing in the Australian NBL, Lopez showed flashes of downhill attacks, active rebounding on both ends, and defensive playmaking. He’s not a great outside shooter (32.2 percent on three attempts per game) or decision-maker yet (57 assists to 46 turnovers), which are clear areas for improvement as he enters the NBA.

14. Charlotte Hornets – Nate Ament, F, Tennessee

Ament was top-5 in just about every preseason mock, but his freshman year at Tennessee left a little to be desired. The 6’10 forward struggled badly to finish at the rim (51.8 percent), never found consistency with his three-ball (33 percent), and didn’t always respond well to physicality. Ament feels like he’ll need a couple more years to develop, but there’s still an outline of a two-way forward who spaces the floor here if everything goes right. Ament was in a tough team context at Tennessee where he needed to take on significant usage on a cramped floor. He took too many off the dribble shots, which he was terrible at. It’s easy to see Ament one day having success as more of a fourth-option who can hit spot-ups, attack closeouts, and use his length to contest shots defensively. He should be one of the more polarizing prospects on draft night, but being this highly regarded out of high school usually makes you a lottery pick.

15. Chicago Bulls – Dailyn Swain, F, Texas

Swain intrigued in his first two college seasons at Xavier as a long and bouncy wing who brought it on the defensive end. Upon transferring to Texas this season, he exploded offensively as a slasher to become one of the more complete prospects in this class. Swain still took on the toughest defensive assignment most nights for the Longhorns, and showed he could still get into the passing lanes and disrupt the offense’s flow even when carrying a higher usage rate. With more offensive freedom, Swain unleashed an improved handle that helped him create space one-on-one and get to the parts of the floor where he could score efficiently. Swain finished well at the rim (64.3 percent) with 83 percent of those looks being self-created. His mid-range touch was also awesome at 47.6 percent on non-rim twos with 95 percent of them coming without an assist. His three-point shot remains a work in progress, but he’s made huge strides to go from 11 makes combined as a freshman and sophomore, to 32 made three-pointers this year at a 34.8 percent clip. If you want positional size and athleticism with two-way adaptability on the wing, Swain is your guy.

16. Memphis Grizzlies – Bennett Stirtz, G, Iowa

Stirtz is a skilled shot-creator as an efficient ball handler and shooter who scores well from all over the floor. The 6’4 guard can play on- or off-the-ball with a fantastic feel for reading ball screens as a handler, and he also has a quick trigger from three when he’s spacing the floor for his teammates. Stirtz does a good job of mapping the floor as a passer, and he’s also shined at suppressing turnovers. He’s a really good scorer both inside and outside the arc, showing mid-range pull-up shooting, crafty finishing, and accurate three-point shooting. He’s not super long or explosive, but he knows how to dictate pace and should be effective in the open floor after playing a very slow style at Iowa. He also played a ton of minutes for the Hawkeyes and showed he could still hit big shots at the end of games despite rarely ever hitting the bench. There are some defensive questions with Stirtz, but his high-IQ shows up at times on that end, too. Don’t write him off just because he’s a senior. He’s going to be a good pro for a long-time.

17. Oklahoma City Thunder – Hannes Steinbach, F, Washington

Steinbach is a monster rebounder with soft hands and tons of potential as a play-finisher. The Washington freshman is bit stuck in between positions at 6’11, 230 pounds without plus length, but he should have no problem playing in the two-big lineups that are suddenly more en vogue around the league. Steinbach’s rebounding is an elite skill after he posted a 14.3 percent offensive rebound rate and a 25 percent defensive rebound rate. Finishing so many putbacks aided his 63.6 percent true shooting on the season, but he does more than attack the glass. Steinbach can fly in transition for acrobatic finishes, and his ability to catch everything thrown at him often leads to easier chances around the basket. His outside shot is a bit of a question, but he did hit 34 percent of his threes on 53 attempts in 30 games this year. He’s not a natural rim protector defensively, so he’ll probably spend time at both frontcourt spots going forward. So long as Steinbach can keep making progress with his three and hold his own defensively, he should be a highly efficient finisher who also generates a lot of extra possessions for his team.

18. Charlotte Hornets – Labaron Philon, G, Alabama

Philon could have been a first-round pick in last year’s draft before being lured back to school for a big NIL bag, but there’s no question he improved his stock as a sophomore. Philon made major strides as a three-point shooter, going from 31.5 percent to 40 percent from deep while nearly doubling his volume. He feels like the shiftiest ball handler in the class, and his drive-and-kick game should be a natural fit in the NBA. He also has one of the best floaters in this class. Philon is pretty small for a guard, but he has the same standing reach as Tyrese Maxey, and he turned out okay. Playing in Alabama’s NBA system should only aid him as he makes the jump to the league.

19. Toronto Raptors – Chris Cenac Jr., C, Houston

Cenac is a long and athletic big man with a nice shooting stroke who needs to continue to work on his feel for the game and toughness. The fact that he committed to Houston and steadily improved throughout the year is a green flag in his favor. Kelvin Sampson holds his players to a high standard of grit, and Cenac earned his trust more and more as the season went on. Cenac’s 7’4 wingspan helps him challenge shots defensively and shoot over contests. He made 30-of-90 shots from three-point range this season. He was also excellent on the defensive glass with a 26 percent d-board rate. Cenac is raw, but the tools are undeniable. Give him a few years and you might have a valuable player.

20. San Antonio Spurs – Morez Johnson Jr., F/C, Michigan

Johnson may be a tad short for a big man at 6’9, but he makes up for it with length, strength, toughness, and efficiency as a scorer. He blossomed upon transferring to Michigan this season, where he showed he could play with other bigs and still impact the game as a rebounder, screen-setter, and play-finisher. Johnson was dominant at the rim by hitting 73 percent of his looks, and he makes his free throws when he gets fouled with a 78 percent stroke from the line. After not taking a three during his freshman season at Illinois, he made 34 percent of his triples on 35 attempts at Michigan, showing that he could have some shooting potential long-term. The biggest part of Johnson’s appeal comes on the defensive end, where he’s strong enough to guard bigs, quick enough to defend most guards and wings, and plays with a physicality that bumps opponents off their spots. There’s nothing flashy about his game, but he knows his role and executes it well. The NBA’s recent trend back to double-big lineups should only help Johnson’s stock.

21. Detroit Pistons – Cameron Carr, G, Baylor

Carr’s intersection of length and shooting gives him obvious appeal. The 6’5 wing reportedly has a 7’2 wingspan, and he made 37.6 percent of his threes on 10.6 attempts from deep per 100 possessions. Carr spent two years on the bench at Tennessee (partially because of a thumb injury) before blossoming at Baylor this season. He doesn’t offer much creation ability, and had almost as many turnovers (81) as assists (90) this season. Still, if you need an off-ball guard with a quick trigger and deep range from three, there are worse options than Carr.

22. Philadelphia 76ers – Allen Graves, F, Santa Clara

Graves came out of nowhere this season to become one of college basketball’s most productive and disruptive players on a per-minute basis. The 6’9 forward is an ultra-aggressive defender who tries to rip the ball away from his opponents at every opportunity, resulting in an unfathomable five percent steal rate and five percent block rate, and also a lot of fouls. Graves isn’t just a hacker: he also hit 40 percent of his threes, made connective passes without turning the ball over, and used his great hands to suction in rebounds at both ends. If he can tone down the fouling while maintaining his defensive playmaking, he could be a steal.

23. Atlanta Hawks – Christian Anderson, G, Texas Tech

Anderson is a high-volume three-point shooter and excellent playmaker who will have to overcome concerns about his size and defensive ability. The 6’2 guard made 41.5 percent of his threes on 12.1 attempts per 100 possessions from deep, with 56.5 percent of his makes coming on pull-ups without an assist. Anderson’s off-the-dribble shooting is even more valuable when mixed with his playmaking, where he posted an awesome 35.2 percent assist rate while struggling a bit with turnovers at times. He’ll need to prove his offensive skill level is high enough to keep him on the floor late in games where he could be targeted defensively.

24. New York Knicks – Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina

Veesaar is one of the few stretch five options in this class. The North Carolina big man took 27.5 percent of his field goal attempts from three-point range this season, and knocked down those shots at a 42.6 percent clip. His poor free throw shooting (61.5 percent) is a signal that his long ball could be fake, but he does enough well on the court to still provide some value if the shot falls off. Veesaar is a good passer who avoids turnovers and an efficient overall scorer despite the struggles from the line. He’s not a defensive enforcer in the middle, and will have to be more of an offensively-slanted big.

25. Los Angeles Lakers – Joshua Jefferson, F, Iowa State

Jefferson is a big, strong forward who brings two-way ability and rare passing vision for someone his size. He made a nice leap as a shooter this year to get up to 34.5 percent frmo three (a career-best), but he’ll need to continue to grow in that area. He will add some toughness and rebounding to any frontcourt, and his ball handling and playmaking would let JJ Redick’s coaching staff get creative with his usage.

26. Denver Nuggets – Ebuka Okorie, G, Stanford

Okorie wasn’t even a top-100 recruit entering his freshman year at Stanford, but the guard immediately put the rest of the country on notice with his terrifying speed fueling his shot-creation ability. Okorie has a wicked first step and even better acceleration to create driving lanes to the rim. He’s not the best finisher, but he can hit touch finishes from mid-range, and his live dribble passing (while avoiding turnovers) is impressive. He hit 35.4 percent from three this year on nearly 180 attempts, which should give teams confidence in his shot going forward. If you want a downhill guard, Okorie is worth a pick even higher than this.

27. Boston Celtics – Zuby Ejiofor, C, St. John’s

Ejiofor is a great mover for someone with a 245-pound frame. The St. John’s senior big man isn’t super tall or long, but he adds a level of physicality to any frontcourt while also intriguing with his connective passing ability. Ejiofor is really good on the glass at both ends, and he can offer some rim protection while also having pick-and-roll coverage versatility. His rim finishing and playmaking are solid, but he might need to develop a three-point shot to stay in the NBA.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves – Tyler Tanner, G, Vanderbilt

Tanner deserves to be a first-round pick if he stays in the draft, but his lack of size could push him down the order. The 6-foot guard became one of college basketball’s best players as a sophomore by unleashing his athleticism at both ends and improving as a shooter. He plays with a rare physicality for someone under 175 pounds, which gives him some defensive utility despite his lack of size. Tanner is super fast, a smart playmaker, and a daring finisher off his drives. He’d be a steal in this range.

29. Cleveland Cavaliers – Isaiah Evans, G, Duke

There isn’t a better shooter running off screens in this class than Evans. The Duke sophomore hit 36 percent of his 280 threes, with many of them coming on difficult attempts that leveraged his movement shooting ability. Evans’ 86 percent stroke from the free throw is a better indicator of how good his touch really is. He’s a bit thin for a shooting guard and isn’t a natural creator, so there will be questions about his defensive translation.

30. Dallas Mavericks – Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas

Thomas is a walking bucket who also makes good decisions with the ball. The 6’5 guard is at his best as a microwave scorer, but unlike many in that archetype, his shot selection and turnovers aren’t a cause for concern.

The 2026 NBA Draft lottery feels like one of the most important in the recent history of the sport, and not necessarily because there’s a no-brainer future MVP candidate available at the top of the order. This draft is special because the top-four prospects all have the potential to be a franchise player down the line. Cameron Boozer is the No. 1 player in the class in our eyes, but A.J. Dybantsa feels like the favorite to be drafted with the first-pick, while Darryn Peterson will have plenty of fans as well. North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson has the potential to be as good as any of them.

The available talent is just one reason why this lottery is so important. The NBA is rushing through anti-tanking reform for next year’s draft that flattens the odds to such a degree that it will essentially randomize the draft order. The floor has also been taken out of the new rules, so while the worst team in the league can only fall to the No. 5 pick this year, next season they could fall as far as No. 12 overall.

The stakes are so high. Check out our most recent mock draft, and read our take on who deserves lottery luck. Now, let’s rank every lottery team by how desperate they are to move into the top-4.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder

No. Just no. If the Thunder cash in on their seven percent chance to move into the top-4, the rest of the league is in deep, deep trouble.

The Hornets already look like the Team of the Future in the East to me after posting the league’s best net-rating after Jan. 1. The Hornets are going to be good either way next year, and they’ll have a chance to add two solid long-term pieces to the draft in this draft with multiple picks in the teens.

The stakes are higher for the Pacers than any other team. If their pick drops out of the top-4, it goes to the Los Angeles Clippers as part of the Ivica Zubac trade. It’s hard to see the Pacers as “desperate” for lottery luck though because they were just in the NBA Finals last time they had a healthy Tyrese Haliburton. Let’s hope the star point guard recovers quickly from his shingles, but he should be ready to go coming off the Achilles tear.

The Hawks took two games off the Knicks in the first-round this year, and they already have a nice young core in place led by Jalen Johnson. Atlanta is still searching for a true No. 1 option in this draft, but they have a bright future even if their pick remains in its expected range around No. 8.

The Heat feel like they’re stuck in no-man’s land. The current team is just good enough to make the play-in tournament but not the playoffs, and they’ll never be bad enough to have decent odds for a top pick. Next year’s lottery changes really helps a team like Miami who is always in the middle. Lottery reform is basically a bailout package for the Heat, so they don’t need luck as badly this year as some other teams.

The Mavs needed a miracle to land Cooper Flagg last year, and now they really need to make this year’s pick count to find him a co-star. Dallas doesn’t control its pick from 2027-2030, so this chance is precious. Flagg is going to be an A1 star starting next season, so they already have a bright future just with him plus a top-10 pick this year even if they don’t move into the top-4.

The Grizzlies appear ready to trade Ja Morant after already trading Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Memphis has a decent young core in place with Zach Edey and Cedric Coward, and I fully trust this franchise to keep uncovering hidden gems in the draft. They would love lottery luck, but they don’t need it.

The Jazz should be pretty good next season even if their pick falls out of the top-4. Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George are a solid core, and Ace Bailey could also take a leap in his second season. Landing Dybantsa or Peterson would be the perfect final piece, and give Utah a real chance to be contenders in the future.

The Warriors are staring down the reality that they’re just not going to be good enough to contend in Steph Curry’s golden years. Moving into the top-4 wouldn’t necessarily get the Warriors back on top, but it would at least give them a plausible exit strategy after Curry retires. I could see a big fall from Golden State coming soon if they don’t get lottery luck and/or nail this pick.

The Bulls’ roster feels bottom-3 in the league for next year before the offseason gets started. Chicago does have a lot of cap space and two top-15 picks in this draft, and best of all Arturas Karnisovas isn’t calling the shots anymore. New EVP Bryson Graham seems prepared to take a long-term view of the franchise’s recent struggles, but the best way to turn things around is a little lottery luck. Chicago hasn’t picked in the top-3 since it moved up to No. 1 for Derrick Rose despite being one of the league’s worst teams over the last decade.

The Wizards traded for Anthony Davis and Trae Young to accelerate their rebuild, but AD doesn’t seem thrilled to be there. Washington has a decent young core led by Alex Sarr after a few years of tanking, but they still don’t have a young franchise player. If the Wizards fall in the draft lottery again and can’t get Davis to buy-in, they could be in danger of falling off the deep end when the new lottery odds begin.

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade saga continues to hold the Bucks hostage. It feels like we’re finally going to get some finality to the situation this summer as Milwaukee has the ability to offer their superstar a max extension. If Giannis turns it down, Bucks ownership has already said it will trade him. Getting lottery luck would change everything for the future of this franchise — whether that involved Giannis or not. The Bucks can pick as high as No. 2 — but only if the Hawks land No. 1.

The Nets had five first-round picks in last year’s draft, but none of them are likely to turn into the franchise player this organization desperately needs. Brooklyn has a bottom tier roster right now and really needs a young star to build around. The Nets also owe a pick swap to Houston next year, so this is their last chance to add a premium young talent until 2028.

The Kings didn’t want to tank — they just built a terrible team on accident. Sacramento’s core is old and expensive, and somehow none of the main pieces are on expiring contracts. How are the Kings ever going to compete in the West if they don’t get lottery luck this year? The new odds are going to hurt them, and the roster probably has less young talent on it than any team in the league currently. I’d love to see more top picks land in the East to address conference imbalance, but the Kings are the most desperate team in the league for a little bit of luck.

Adam Silver heard the outcry over tanking ahead of a loaded 2026 NBA Draft and was determined to find a solution. The league has now settled on its preferred system of lottery reform, and it essentially reduces the distribution of top young talent entering the league to complete randomness.

ESPN insider Shams Charania revealed the NBA’s new “3-2-1” lottery system on Tuesday night. Here’s what you need to know:

Got all that? Probably not, because it’s pretty complicated. When Adam Silver was weighing multiple options to reform the NBA Draft lottery last month, I wrote “in rushing to find a medicine to cure tanking, the NBA risks giving itself bigger problems from the side effects.” While this system likely will curb tanking to some extent, it opens up a ton of new problems for the league.

It’s pretty wild that Silver rushed this system through so hastily with it slated to take effect for the 2027 NBA Draft. Teams already made long-term roster decisions based on the incentives of the old rules. The Chicago Bulls traded Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White at the deadline after years of floundering in mediocrity to increase their chances at finding a star. This system rewards mediocrity. It would have been nice if Chicago actually knew the rules before making its February deals. The Memphis Grizzlies traded away Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane because they felt like they couldn’t get out of the middle of the Western Conference standings. Would Memphis had made the same decisions if they knew the lottery format would change like this?

It’s no surprise the league is giving itself the option to opt out of this plan after the 2029 NBA Draft, per Charania’s report. This lottery format feels like an extremely slippery slope for a few reasons. Let’s get into it.

The new lottery system kills hope for diehard fans of bad teams

Teams had the ability to go from worst-to-first under the current lottery system despite the fact that the worst team in the league literally never won the lottery since the last round of reform went into effect in 2019. The Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves all made the worst-to-first jump in the 2020s.

Those are all small market teams who used the draft to land their franchise player. They still had to get lucky to land the top pick. It’s just going to require way more luck for bad teams to get good under this system.

The risk of this system is that it creates a permanent NBA underclass. Now the worst team in the league can fall to the 12th pick. Given how rarely good players change hands in free agency these days (more on that later), it feels like bad teams could get stuck in a cycle of being bad for a long, long time.

If teams can’t sell wins, they need to sell hope. What hope would fans of bad teams have now knowing they could fall out of the top-10 in the draft? The risk here is that diehard fans of bad teams just choose to give up because there’s no path forward.

Lottery reform feels like it should be coupled with free agency changes

How are bad teams supposed to get good players if they can’t do it through the draft? Free agency and trades are the only other options, but the prospect of bad teams overpaying free agents to land them only offers more downside, especially in this more punitive CBA.

It feels like the league needs more good young players to hit free agency if it doesn’t want teams to tank for the draft. One idea I saw elsewhere that I liked was eliminating restricted free agency. Under the current system, the Pistons still have the ability to match any contract offer to Jalen Duren even after failing to reach an extension with him. What if Duren was just an unrestricted free agent this year, and could be had for any team?

Something like that would open up more avenues for talent acquisition outside of the draft. For now, it feels like bad teams that don’t get lottery luck are simply screwed.

The NBA already killed free agency. Will these changes kill trades, too?

Silver heard the outcry over Kevin Durant signing with the Golden State Warriors, and essentially made rule changes that kept superstars away from free agency. The last true superstar to change teams in free agency was Kawhi Leonard signing with the Los Angeles Clippers in 2019. Since then, the biggest player to change teams in free agency is … washed Paul George in 2024?

The NBA gets a lot of attention from offseason player movement. I wonder if these changes will make teams more reluctant to trade their future first-round picks, thus diminishing the trade market, too.

First-round picks are the currency of trades. A team that was around .500 was more incentivized to trade a future first because it had a lower probability of turning into a premium pick. Now that’s been flipped on its head.

This is all pretty speculative for now, but it’s something to monitor. This new lottery system will have unintended consequences, and it would be a net-loss for the NBA if it resulted in fewer trades.

Tanking will still happen under these lottery rules, just in different ways

This lottery system should curb tanking, but it won’t eliminate it entirely. If the goal of these changes is to preserve the sanctity of March and April games, I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

Let’s say a team enters the All-Star break in 10th place in their conference. They might not want to risk losing a ping pong ball by making the 7/8 play-in game, so they will still rest players as long as they have a big enough cushion not to finish in the bottom-3. The sweet spot in this reform is the 4-10 range. Given how often injuries play a factor in team performance — and given how many significant injuries there are in the modern game — it feels likely a team can still rest players/try to lose on purpose from an organizational perspective and still enter the lottery sitting pretty.

Tanking was never the NBA’s biggest problem anyway

Adam Silver is a reactionary. He reads online criticism, and he acts quickly. My complaint with rushing through this tanking reform is that fans of teams that are tanking aren’t the ones doing the complaining. It’s usually coming from football fans after the Super Bowl who will just find another way to criticize the NBA even if tanking was solved.

The NBA’s biggest issue is that the regular season lacks anything resembling meaningful stakes. Silver thinks that these lottery reforms will fix that problem, but I’m extremely dubious. If the NBA wants to give the regular season more stakes, it needs to reduce the number of games. Play every team twice and call it a season. Once the NBA adds its two expansion teams in Las Vegas and Seattle, that would create a 62-game schedule. It gives the players more rest in between games, and cancels a lot of the end of season games where tanking tomfoolery is happening.

The point of the draft is to give the worst teams the best young players. The NBA apparently doesn’t see it that way, and they’re instead leaving it all up to chance.

This lottery simulator shows how much randomness is in the new system. Play with it yourself:

On my first spin, the Miami Heat drew the No. 1 pick and the Washington Wizards fell to 12th. Is that the type of system the NBA really wants?

The biggest winner of these lottery changes feel like … the Oklahoma City Thunder. Check out all of the future first-round picks OKC owns here. Now their future picks coming from the Nuggets and their swap rights with the Clippers could be even more valuable, as those teams likely wouldn’t have been near the bottom of the standings, but could be in the middle ground that is now more fruitful.

Back in 2017, the great Tom Ziller wrote a column at this site titled “Kill the NBA Draft.” Subscribe to Tom’s newsletter here for more great NBA coverage.

Given how much randomness is in this new system, I find myself far more open to just killing the draft entirely starting in 2030. Give every team a rookie exception they can offer top players. Let teams with cap space offer them more money beyond that. It would make sense if a bad team has more open cap space and could hypothetically offer the next Cooper Flagg a max deal out of college. If Flagg prefers to sign with his childhood favorite Boston Celtics instead, so be it.

The NBA is opening up a whole new can of worms with this lottery system, and the people it hurts the most are loyal fans of hopeless franchises. The NBA really does not want a world where those people check out of the league entirely. I feel like it could happen after these changes.