Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was supposed to be a first-round pick.

Allar returned to the Nittany Lions after a disappointing exit in the College Football Playoff last year. A veteran Penn State team quarterbacked by Allar flopped, causing James Franklin to be fired. Allar was sidelined after a season-ending ankle break ended his college football career.

At the NFL Combine in Indianapolis, Allar’s redemption story began. He effortlessly showcased his big arm. At 6-foot-5, Allar has the size and upside that NFL talent evaluators fall in love with.

His big red flag is his lack of consistency. Allar showed flashes of greatness. Other times, he left meat on the bone in a Penn State offense that just never seemed to play into his strengths as a passer.

Yet still, he finished his college football career with 61 touchdown passes compared to just 13 interceptions. In 45 college football games, Allar threw for over 7,400 yards. He’s also more athletic and escapable than he gets credit for, averaging 16 rushing yards per game and adding 12 touchdowns with his legs over those four seasons.

Even though Allar’s stock is generally viewed as late Day 2 or early Day 3, don’t be surprised if he’s drafted as soon as the third round.

NFL talent evaluators will park Allar’s Penn State career and try to figure out what kind of quarterback he can evolve into at the next level, especially in their respective environments. Because the Nittany Lions didn’t ever necessarily lean all the way into Allar’s strengths, he’s a little bit of a clay ball.

At 6-foot-5, Allar has prototypical franchise quarterback size. Even though Allar’s accuracy can be shaky and his footwork was inconsistent, NFL teams will bank on his size, big arm and underrated athleticism to overcome those deficiencies in his game.

The NFL is the ultimate supply and demand league. There are more bad quarterbacks than good ones currently in the NFL. That benefits Allar, who is an intriguing prospect with a ton of upside in the right environment.

Last year, the NFL Draft only had two first-round quarterbacks, Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart. Maybe Tyler Shough can convince the New Orleans Saints that he’s the real deal. Perhaps the same could be said for Shedeur Sanders, who will get another crack at being the Cleveland Browns’ quarterback in 2026.

But outside of that? It was a forgettable draft for quarterbacks.

The same is getting ready to be said about the 2026 quarterback class. Fernando Mendoza will be drafted No. 1 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders. But after that? Alabama’s Ty Simpson would be the only other first-round quarterback. Then LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, Allar and Miami’s Carson Beck should be waiting by their phones – but there’s no telling when it might ring.

Quarterback-needy teams haven’t been able to hide their interest in Allar. He’s had top 30 visits with the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers. The New York Jets brought him in for a private workout. He also met with the Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Jets, Cardinals, Browns and Steelers could all use a quarterback in the first-round. Will any of them fall in love with Simpson? If not, a lottery ticket on Allar would make sense.

Even beyond those teams, the Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams would be two destinations where Allar can sit behind stable quarterback situations and learn.

He’s going to be drafted sooner than people think. Penn State haters will deploy their memes about how inconsistent his college career was. But his size and upside will have NFL decision makers ignoring the Allar naysayers next week.