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Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Let’s be fair to the naysayers here. Last season, Mendoza did lead the entire NCAA in RPO dropbacks with 103, and with the benefit or those run/pass options, he completed 77 of 97 passes for 687 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 115.9. But without RPOs, Mendoza completed 196 of 282 passes for 2,849 yards, an NCAA-high 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.3.

The common assumption when it comes to heavy-RPO quarterbacks is that they need this particular schematic constraint because they’re limited in their field-reading overall. Thus, the relatively simple option to read a defender, and decide to hand off or throw to a quick read based on defensive action. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky is among those who have forwarded this theory in Mendoza’s case, and as much I respect Dan and his process, I’m not seeing it. One of the first things that popped out about Mendoza when I watched his tape was his ability to see the entire field, read the coverage, and throw with anticipation when required.

For one thing, you don’t do as well against disguised coverage as Mendoza did last season without a great deal of mental wherewithal, because there are NFL starting quarterbacks who still struggle with safety switches and whatnot.

Is Mendoza a perfect quarterback prospect? No, because nobody is. But the RPO-dependent narrative has spiraled out of control, and it needs to stop.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State: He’s not a No. 1 receiver!

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At 6’ 2¼” and 192 pounds at the combine, and with a wealth of explosive plays and contested catches on his tape, Carnell Tate certainly looks like a No. 1 receiver to me, but perhaps my definition has been warped by the vagaries of modern NFL offensive design. The days of the stationary X-iso receiver are just about gone — even if you have a Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, you want to give them the most possible advantages with condensed formations, pre-snap motion, and 3×1/2c2 receiver sets. Add in the increased use of 12 and 13 personnel throughout the league, where at least one tight end is a primary target, and things can get pretty blurry for defenses. Which is why you don’t often see any team’s best receiver in the same spot even two snaps in a row.

The point is, Carnell Tate doesn’t need to be a 6’3”, 220-pound iso ball-winner to be a team’s No. 1 receiver; he just needs the right system in which to become that. Of his 51 catches on 66 targets for 875 yards and nine touchdowns in the 2025 season, 21 targets were contested, and he brought in 12 of those throws. That is one of the most apparent attributes on his tape.

And on passes of 20 or more air yards, Tate caught 11 on 17 targets for 453 yards and six touchdowns.

Personally, I think the main reason Tate is being undersold as a true alpha dog at the next level is that he did his thing with Jeremiah Smith on the field most of the time, and Jeremiah Smith may well be one of those “annual generational” players when he becomes part of his own draft class. Let’s not have comparison become the thief of joy here.

KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M: He’s just a gadget guy!

AUSTIN, TX - NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

AUSTIN, TX – NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

In today’s NFL, where players are asked to do more things at more positions than ever before, you’d think that versatility would be a strong point. But when Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion won the 2025 Paul Hornung Award, given annually to the most versatile player in major college football, it seemed to bake in the notion that Concepcion is more of a trick-shot artist than a pure receiver capable of maintaining the force of an entire passing game.

“He’s almost like a gadget guy, the way they play him,” one NFL scout told veteran writer Bob McGinn. “It’s going to be a while before he’s anything. Looks like a track guy. You can tell he can run when things are free. They scheme him up for his production. Doesn’t catch the ball well. Lot of drops around a lot of bodies. Doesn’t have catch radius. They do this slip-screen stuff with him and he has no run after the catch.”

Okay, so the hands need help. Concepcion had seven drops last season, but I saw as much or more focus issues (gotta catch the ball before you look to turn and run, dude) than the idea that he dries up and blows away with defender around him. Last season, the 6’0”, 196-pound Concepcion caught 61 passes on 101 targets for 919 yards and nine touchdowns, and while he did have a lot of screen and hitch targets, his average depth of target was 12.3 yards, and he also put up a ton of big plays on longer-developing routes. You don’t catch eight passes of 20 or more air yards on 21 targets for 240 yards and two touchdowns if all you’re doing is gimmicky YAC stuff.

Moreover, Concepcion has added to his route palette, and he knows how to get open just about everywhere on the field. So, just because he’s a jack of all trades doesn’t mean that he’s a master of none.

Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt: He doesn’t block!

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The aforementioned rise of 12 and 13 personnel (two and three tight ends on the field) also means that not all of your tight ends have to be created out of the same mold. Sean McVay didn’t win over and over with his hilarious 13 personnel uptick last season because he had three big blockers on the field, per se — it also worked because he had different kinds of tight ends for different purposes. Do you want good blockers on the edge of the formation? Sure. But does it also help to have tight ends who are just great pass-catchers?

It certainly does. Go figure.

So, when we discuss Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers, does it matter that he’s not a great blocker yet? I mean, you’d want a bit more than what was shown in the 2025 season, but if you’re crossing him off your list because he’s not Peak Gronk as a tough guy, maybe you’re missing the point.

Last season, Stowers caught 62 passes on 85 targets for 769 yards and four touchdowns, and if anything, I think that his NFL team will be able to make more of his vertical juice than the Commodores did. It’s also important to mention that Stowers is a converted quarterback, who only started playing tight end with New Mexico State in 2023 after he suffered a throwing shoulder injury early on in his time with Texas A&M. This is a player where you have to look at the developmental curve and what can be done, as opposed to what’s still in the incubator.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama: He’s an out-of-shape bust!

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Getty Images

When Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor showed up at the scouting combine standing 6’ 6 ⅝” and weighing 352 pounds, you could hear the entire Draft Industrial Complex (and a lot of NFL teams) breathing a rather large sigh of relief. Because Proctor’s weight has been an issue in the past. It’s one reason why, in 2023, Proctor looked like a whale out of water as the Crimson Tide’s left tackle. That’s when he allowed 12 sacks and 36 total pressures in 408 pass-blocking snaps, and if you told me at that point that he was a future first-round pick, I would asked you for some of what you were smoking.

That has seemed to stick with Proctor to a point, even though his blocking and conditioning have improved exponentially over the last two seasons. In 2025, he gave up two sacks and 21 pressures in 611 pass-blocking snaps (by far his career high), and he was much more forceful and agile overall.

Jeremiah and Brooks know what they’re talking about, and they both talk to NFL teams, so this is still a thing. I’m not as worried about the weight fluctuation because it’s been overplayed to a degree overall, and given the fact that Proctor had multiple plays last season in which he exceeded 16 miler per hour on the move, he’s clearly done some work. It will be on his NFL team to make sure the work is consistently done.

Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio State: He’s not fast enough!

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.
Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Caleb Downs is one of the best defensive prospects in this class — one of the best overall — but it may be that he has the curse of making everything look too easy. I can think of no other reason why Downs’ on-field speed would be the issue it has become.

Karim Kassam, vice president of product at the data company Teamworks, recently told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert that based on his company’s AI modeling and evaluation, Downs’ play speed is a problem.

“They might see that his [particular obstacle] is going to be his athleticism, that he’s not going to be able to run with receivers the way that some other safeties can,” Kassam said. “… Based on the numbers, you might not see him as someone that can flex outside and cover even a premier tight end, or be a center-field-safety type that’s going to cover a lot of ground. That might not be his thing. He’s going to be more of a box-slot type of safety.”

Well, there’s that… and then, there’s the tape. Last season, Downs played 54% of his snaps in the deep third as either a single-high or two-deep safety, and overall, he allowed 25 catches on 38 targets for 168 yards, 92 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 53.4.

My NFL comparison all along for Downs has been Xavier McKinney, who came out of Alabama in the 2020 draft after running a 4.63-second 40-yard dash (Downs didn’t run at his combine or pro day), but became an amazing top-down defender at multiple positions because his anticipation skills were and are so great. No, Downs isn’t a “unicorn” like Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori, but if you fast-forwarded to a future in which Downs became the next Brian Branch or Derwin James, I wouldn’t blink an eye. Whichever NFL team that drafted him would probably be pretty happy with that outcome.

#NFL #draft #prospects #desperately #overthinking"> 6 NFL draft prospects we are desperately overthinking  As much as it kills me to say this, given that there’s less than a week to the start of the 2026 NFL draft, and there are about 200 guys I’d like to watch in that time (ha!), the draft should really start a couple of weeks before it does. Were things to begin, say, in mid-April, think of the noise we wouldn’t have time to hear, because there wouldn’t be as much time to overthink the prospects at or near the top of the board.But things are as they are, and we must wait until Thursday, April 23 at 8:00 p.m. ET for the draft to begin. So, we get several more days of analysts, evaluators, and anonymous scouts (my personal favorite) going out of their way to over-analyze top prospects to the point where you think there’s more of a limited future for these players than what the tape actually shows.So, in the interest of public service, let’s dispel the myths we’re going to hear more and more… that will make less and less sense as time goes along.Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: He’s too RPO-dependent! Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images Kirby Lee-Imagn ImagesLet’s be fair to the naysayers here. Last season, Mendoza did lead the entire NCAA in RPO dropbacks with 103, and with the benefit or those run/pass options, he completed 77 of 97 passes for 687 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 115.9. But without RPOs, Mendoza completed 196 of 282 passes for 2,849 yards, an NCAA-high 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.3.The common assumption when it comes to heavy-RPO quarterbacks is that they need this particular schematic constraint because they’re limited in their field-reading overall. Thus, the relatively simple option to read a defender, and decide to hand off or throw to a quick read based on defensive action. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky is among those who have forwarded this theory in Mendoza’s case, and as much I respect Dan and his process, I’m not seeing it. One of the first things that popped out about Mendoza when I watched his tape was his ability to see the entire field, read the coverage, and throw with anticipation when required.For one thing, you don’t do as well against disguised coverage as Mendoza did last season without a great deal of mental wherewithal, because there are NFL starting quarterbacks who still struggle with safety switches and whatnot.Is Mendoza a perfect quarterback prospect? No, because nobody is. But the RPO-dependent narrative has spiraled out of control, and it needs to stop.Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State: He’s not a No. 1 receiver! Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesAt 6’ 2¼” and 192 pounds at the combine, and with a wealth of explosive plays and contested catches on his tape, Carnell Tate certainly looks like a No. 1 receiver to me, but perhaps my definition has been warped by the vagaries of modern NFL offensive design. The days of the stationary X-iso receiver are just about gone — even if you have a Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, you want to give them the most possible advantages with condensed formations, pre-snap motion, and 3×1/2c2 receiver sets. Add in the increased use of 12 and 13 personnel throughout the league, where at least one tight end is a primary target, and things can get pretty blurry for defenses. Which is why you don’t often see any team’s best receiver in the same spot even two snaps in a row.The point is, Carnell Tate doesn’t need to be a 6’3”, 220-pound iso ball-winner to be a team’s No. 1 receiver; he just needs the right system in which to become that. Of his 51 catches on 66 targets for 875 yards and nine touchdowns in the 2025 season, 21 targets were contested, and he brought in 12 of those throws. That is one of the most apparent attributes on his tape.And on passes of 20 or more air yards, Tate caught 11 on 17 targets for 453 yards and six touchdowns.Personally, I think the main reason Tate is being undersold as a true alpha dog at the next level is that he did his thing with Jeremiah Smith on the field most of the time, and Jeremiah Smith may well be one of those “annual generational” players when he becomes part of his own draft class. Let’s not have comparison become the thief of joy here.KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M: He’s just a gadget guy!AUSTIN, TX – NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) Icon Sportswire via Getty ImagesIn today’s NFL, where players are asked to do more things at more positions than ever before, you’d think that versatility would be a strong point. But when Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion won the 2025 Paul Hornung Award, given annually to the most versatile player in major college football, it seemed to bake in the notion that Concepcion is more of a trick-shot artist than a pure receiver capable of maintaining the force of an entire passing game.“He’s almost like a gadget guy, the way they play him,” one NFL scout told veteran writer Bob McGinn. “It’s going to be a while before he’s anything. Looks like a track guy. You can tell he can run when things are free. They scheme him up for his production. Doesn’t catch the ball well. Lot of drops around a lot of bodies. Doesn’t have catch radius. They do this slip-screen stuff with him and he has no run after the catch.”Okay, so the hands need help. Concepcion had seven drops last season, but I saw as much or more focus issues (gotta catch the ball before you look to turn and run, dude) than the idea that he dries up and blows away with defender around him. Last season, the 6’0”, 196-pound Concepcion caught 61 passes on 101 targets for 919 yards and nine touchdowns, and while he did have a lot of screen and hitch targets, his average depth of target was 12.3 yards, and he also put up a ton of big plays on longer-developing routes. You don’t catch eight passes of 20 or more air yards on 21 targets for 240 yards and two touchdowns if all you’re doing is gimmicky YAC stuff.Moreover, Concepcion has added to his route palette, and he knows how to get open just about everywhere on the field. So, just because he’s a jack of all trades doesn’t mean that he’s a master of none.Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt: He doesn’t block! Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images Steve Roberts-Imagn ImagesThe aforementioned rise of 12 and 13 personnel (two and three tight ends on the field) also means that not all of your tight ends have to be created out of the same mold. Sean McVay didn’t win over and over with his hilarious 13 personnel uptick last season because he had three big blockers on the field, per se — it also worked because he had different kinds of tight ends for different purposes. Do you want good blockers on the edge of the formation? Sure. But does it also help to have tight ends who are just great pass-catchers?It certainly does. Go figure.So, when we discuss Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers, does it matter that he’s not a great blocker yet? I mean, you’d want a bit more than what was shown in the 2025 season, but if you’re crossing him off your list because he’s not Peak Gronk as a tough guy, maybe you’re missing the point.Last season, Stowers caught 62 passes on 85 targets for 769 yards and four touchdowns, and if anything, I think that his NFL team will be able to make more of his vertical juice than the Commodores did. It’s also important to mention that Stowers is a converted quarterback, who only started playing tight end with New Mexico State in 2023 after he suffered a throwing shoulder injury early on in his time with Texas A&M. This is a player where you have to look at the developmental curve and what can be done, as opposed to what’s still in the incubator.Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama: He’s an out-of-shape bust! PASADENA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images) Getty ImagesWhen Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor showed up at the scouting combine standing 6’ 6 ⅝” and weighing 352 pounds, you could hear the entire Draft Industrial Complex (and a lot of NFL teams) breathing a rather large sigh of relief. Because Proctor’s weight has been an issue in the past. It’s one reason why, in 2023, Proctor looked like a whale out of water as the Crimson Tide’s left tackle. That’s when he allowed 12 sacks and 36 total pressures in 408 pass-blocking snaps, and if you told me at that point that he was a future first-round pick, I would asked you for some of what you were smoking.That has seemed to stick with Proctor to a point, even though his blocking and conditioning have improved exponentially over the last two seasons. In 2025, he gave up two sacks and 21 pressures in 611 pass-blocking snaps (by far his career high), and he was much more forceful and agile overall.Jeremiah and Brooks know what they’re talking about, and they both talk to NFL teams, so this is still a thing. I’m not as worried about the weight fluctuation because it’s been overplayed to a degree overall, and given the fact that Proctor had multiple plays last season in which he exceeded 16 miler per hour on the move, he’s clearly done some work. It will be on his NFL team to make sure the work is consistently done.Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio State: He’s not fast enough!Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn ImagesCaleb Downs is one of the best defensive prospects in this class — one of the best overall — but it may be that he has the curse of making everything look too easy. I can think of no other reason why Downs’ on-field speed would be the issue it has become.Karim Kassam, vice president of product at the data company Teamworks, recently told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert that based on his company’s AI modeling and evaluation, Downs’ play speed is a problem.“They might see that his [particular obstacle] is going to be his athleticism, that he’s not going to be able to run with receivers the way that some other safeties can,” Kassam said. “… Based on the numbers, you might not see him as someone that can flex outside and cover even a premier tight end, or be a center-field-safety type that’s going to cover a lot of ground. That might not be his thing. He’s going to be more of a box-slot type of safety.”Well, there’s that… and then, there’s the tape. Last season, Downs played 54% of his snaps in the deep third as either a single-high or two-deep safety, and overall, he allowed 25 catches on 38 targets for 168 yards, 92 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 53.4.My NFL comparison all along for Downs has been Xavier McKinney, who came out of Alabama in the 2020 draft after running a 4.63-second 40-yard dash (Downs didn’t run at his combine or pro day), but became an amazing top-down defender at multiple positions because his anticipation skills were and are so great. No, Downs isn’t a “unicorn” like Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori, but if you fast-forwarded to a future in which Downs became the next Brian Branch or Derwin James, I wouldn’t blink an eye. Whichever NFL team that drafted him would probably be pretty happy with that outcome.  #NFL #draft #prospects #desperately #overthinking
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Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Let’s be fair to the naysayers here. Last season, Mendoza did lead the entire NCAA in RPO dropbacks with 103, and with the benefit or those run/pass options, he completed 77 of 97 passes for 687 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 115.9. But without RPOs, Mendoza completed 196 of 282 passes for 2,849 yards, an NCAA-high 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.3.

The common assumption when it comes to heavy-RPO quarterbacks is that they need this particular schematic constraint because they’re limited in their field-reading overall. Thus, the relatively simple option to read a defender, and decide to hand off or throw to a quick read based on defensive action. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky is among those who have forwarded this theory in Mendoza’s case, and as much I respect Dan and his process, I’m not seeing it. One of the first things that popped out about Mendoza when I watched his tape was his ability to see the entire field, read the coverage, and throw with anticipation when required.

For one thing, you don’t do as well against disguised coverage as Mendoza did last season without a great deal of mental wherewithal, because there are NFL starting quarterbacks who still struggle with safety switches and whatnot.

Is Mendoza a perfect quarterback prospect? No, because nobody is. But the RPO-dependent narrative has spiraled out of control, and it needs to stop.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State: He’s not a No. 1 receiver!

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At 6’ 2¼” and 192 pounds at the combine, and with a wealth of explosive plays and contested catches on his tape, Carnell Tate certainly looks like a No. 1 receiver to me, but perhaps my definition has been warped by the vagaries of modern NFL offensive design. The days of the stationary X-iso receiver are just about gone — even if you have a Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, you want to give them the most possible advantages with condensed formations, pre-snap motion, and 3×1/2c2 receiver sets. Add in the increased use of 12 and 13 personnel throughout the league, where at least one tight end is a primary target, and things can get pretty blurry for defenses. Which is why you don’t often see any team’s best receiver in the same spot even two snaps in a row.

The point is, Carnell Tate doesn’t need to be a 6’3”, 220-pound iso ball-winner to be a team’s No. 1 receiver; he just needs the right system in which to become that. Of his 51 catches on 66 targets for 875 yards and nine touchdowns in the 2025 season, 21 targets were contested, and he brought in 12 of those throws. That is one of the most apparent attributes on his tape.

And on passes of 20 or more air yards, Tate caught 11 on 17 targets for 453 yards and six touchdowns.

Personally, I think the main reason Tate is being undersold as a true alpha dog at the next level is that he did his thing with Jeremiah Smith on the field most of the time, and Jeremiah Smith may well be one of those “annual generational” players when he becomes part of his own draft class. Let’s not have comparison become the thief of joy here.

KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M: He’s just a gadget guy!

AUSTIN, TX - NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

AUSTIN, TX – NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

In today’s NFL, where players are asked to do more things at more positions than ever before, you’d think that versatility would be a strong point. But when Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion won the 2025 Paul Hornung Award, given annually to the most versatile player in major college football, it seemed to bake in the notion that Concepcion is more of a trick-shot artist than a pure receiver capable of maintaining the force of an entire passing game.

“He’s almost like a gadget guy, the way they play him,” one NFL scout told veteran writer Bob McGinn. “It’s going to be a while before he’s anything. Looks like a track guy. You can tell he can run when things are free. They scheme him up for his production. Doesn’t catch the ball well. Lot of drops around a lot of bodies. Doesn’t have catch radius. They do this slip-screen stuff with him and he has no run after the catch.”

Okay, so the hands need help. Concepcion had seven drops last season, but I saw as much or more focus issues (gotta catch the ball before you look to turn and run, dude) than the idea that he dries up and blows away with defender around him. Last season, the 6’0”, 196-pound Concepcion caught 61 passes on 101 targets for 919 yards and nine touchdowns, and while he did have a lot of screen and hitch targets, his average depth of target was 12.3 yards, and he also put up a ton of big plays on longer-developing routes. You don’t catch eight passes of 20 or more air yards on 21 targets for 240 yards and two touchdowns if all you’re doing is gimmicky YAC stuff.

Moreover, Concepcion has added to his route palette, and he knows how to get open just about everywhere on the field. So, just because he’s a jack of all trades doesn’t mean that he’s a master of none.

Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt: He doesn’t block!

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The aforementioned rise of 12 and 13 personnel (two and three tight ends on the field) also means that not all of your tight ends have to be created out of the same mold. Sean McVay didn’t win over and over with his hilarious 13 personnel uptick last season because he had three big blockers on the field, per se — it also worked because he had different kinds of tight ends for different purposes. Do you want good blockers on the edge of the formation? Sure. But does it also help to have tight ends who are just great pass-catchers?

It certainly does. Go figure.

So, when we discuss Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers, does it matter that he’s not a great blocker yet? I mean, you’d want a bit more than what was shown in the 2025 season, but if you’re crossing him off your list because he’s not Peak Gronk as a tough guy, maybe you’re missing the point.

Last season, Stowers caught 62 passes on 85 targets for 769 yards and four touchdowns, and if anything, I think that his NFL team will be able to make more of his vertical juice than the Commodores did. It’s also important to mention that Stowers is a converted quarterback, who only started playing tight end with New Mexico State in 2023 after he suffered a throwing shoulder injury early on in his time with Texas A&M. This is a player where you have to look at the developmental curve and what can be done, as opposed to what’s still in the incubator.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama: He’s an out-of-shape bust!

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Getty Images

When Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor showed up at the scouting combine standing 6’ 6 ⅝” and weighing 352 pounds, you could hear the entire Draft Industrial Complex (and a lot of NFL teams) breathing a rather large sigh of relief. Because Proctor’s weight has been an issue in the past. It’s one reason why, in 2023, Proctor looked like a whale out of water as the Crimson Tide’s left tackle. That’s when he allowed 12 sacks and 36 total pressures in 408 pass-blocking snaps, and if you told me at that point that he was a future first-round pick, I would asked you for some of what you were smoking.

That has seemed to stick with Proctor to a point, even though his blocking and conditioning have improved exponentially over the last two seasons. In 2025, he gave up two sacks and 21 pressures in 611 pass-blocking snaps (by far his career high), and he was much more forceful and agile overall.

Jeremiah and Brooks know what they’re talking about, and they both talk to NFL teams, so this is still a thing. I’m not as worried about the weight fluctuation because it’s been overplayed to a degree overall, and given the fact that Proctor had multiple plays last season in which he exceeded 16 miler per hour on the move, he’s clearly done some work. It will be on his NFL team to make sure the work is consistently done.

Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio State: He’s not fast enough!

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.
Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Caleb Downs is one of the best defensive prospects in this class — one of the best overall — but it may be that he has the curse of making everything look too easy. I can think of no other reason why Downs’ on-field speed would be the issue it has become.

Karim Kassam, vice president of product at the data company Teamworks, recently told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert that based on his company’s AI modeling and evaluation, Downs’ play speed is a problem.

“They might see that his [particular obstacle] is going to be his athleticism, that he’s not going to be able to run with receivers the way that some other safeties can,” Kassam said. “… Based on the numbers, you might not see him as someone that can flex outside and cover even a premier tight end, or be a center-field-safety type that’s going to cover a lot of ground. That might not be his thing. He’s going to be more of a box-slot type of safety.”

Well, there’s that… and then, there’s the tape. Last season, Downs played 54% of his snaps in the deep third as either a single-high or two-deep safety, and overall, he allowed 25 catches on 38 targets for 168 yards, 92 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 53.4.

My NFL comparison all along for Downs has been Xavier McKinney, who came out of Alabama in the 2020 draft after running a 4.63-second 40-yard dash (Downs didn’t run at his combine or pro day), but became an amazing top-down defender at multiple positions because his anticipation skills were and are so great. No, Downs isn’t a “unicorn” like Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori, but if you fast-forwarded to a future in which Downs became the next Brian Branch or Derwin James, I wouldn’t blink an eye. Whichever NFL team that drafted him would probably be pretty happy with that outcome.

#NFL #draft #prospects #desperately #overthinking">6 NFL draft prospects we are desperately overthinking

As much as it kills me to say this, given that there’s less than a week to the start of the 2026 NFL draft, and there are about 200 guys I’d like to watch in that time (ha!), the draft should really start a couple of weeks before it does. Were things to begin, say, in mid-April, think of the noise we wouldn’t have time to hear, because there wouldn’t be as much time to overthink the prospects at or near the top of the board.

But things are as they are, and we must wait until Thursday, April 23 at 8:00 p.m. ET for the draft to begin. So, we get several more days of analysts, evaluators, and anonymous scouts (my personal favorite) going out of their way to over-analyze top prospects to the point where you think there’s more of a limited future for these players than what the tape actually shows.

So, in the interest of public service, let’s dispel the myths we’re going to hear more and more… that will make less and less sense as time goes along.

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: He’s too RPO-dependent!

Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Feb 28, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (QB11) poses with former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Let’s be fair to the naysayers here. Last season, Mendoza did lead the entire NCAA in RPO dropbacks with 103, and with the benefit or those run/pass options, he completed 77 of 97 passes for 687 yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 115.9. But without RPOs, Mendoza completed 196 of 282 passes for 2,849 yards, an NCAA-high 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 134.3.

The common assumption when it comes to heavy-RPO quarterbacks is that they need this particular schematic constraint because they’re limited in their field-reading overall. Thus, the relatively simple option to read a defender, and decide to hand off or throw to a quick read based on defensive action. ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky is among those who have forwarded this theory in Mendoza’s case, and as much I respect Dan and his process, I’m not seeing it. One of the first things that popped out about Mendoza when I watched his tape was his ability to see the entire field, read the coverage, and throw with anticipation when required.

For one thing, you don’t do as well against disguised coverage as Mendoza did last season without a great deal of mental wherewithal, because there are NFL starting quarterbacks who still struggle with safety switches and whatnot.

Is Mendoza a perfect quarterback prospect? No, because nobody is. But the RPO-dependent narrative has spiraled out of control, and it needs to stop.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State: He’s not a No. 1 receiver!

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Carnell Tate (17) runs after a catch during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal game against the Miami Hurricanes on Dec. 31, 2025. Ohio State lost 24-14.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At 6’ 2¼” and 192 pounds at the combine, and with a wealth of explosive plays and contested catches on his tape, Carnell Tate certainly looks like a No. 1 receiver to me, but perhaps my definition has been warped by the vagaries of modern NFL offensive design. The days of the stationary X-iso receiver are just about gone — even if you have a Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, you want to give them the most possible advantages with condensed formations, pre-snap motion, and 3×1/2c2 receiver sets. Add in the increased use of 12 and 13 personnel throughout the league, where at least one tight end is a primary target, and things can get pretty blurry for defenses. Which is why you don’t often see any team’s best receiver in the same spot even two snaps in a row.

The point is, Carnell Tate doesn’t need to be a 6’3”, 220-pound iso ball-winner to be a team’s No. 1 receiver; he just needs the right system in which to become that. Of his 51 catches on 66 targets for 875 yards and nine touchdowns in the 2025 season, 21 targets were contested, and he brought in 12 of those throws. That is one of the most apparent attributes on his tape.

And on passes of 20 or more air yards, Tate caught 11 on 17 targets for 453 yards and six touchdowns.

Personally, I think the main reason Tate is being undersold as a true alpha dog at the next level is that he did his thing with Jeremiah Smith on the field most of the time, and Jeremiah Smith may well be one of those “annual generational” players when he becomes part of his own draft class. Let’s not have comparison become the thief of joy here.

KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M: He’s just a gadget guy!

AUSTIN, TX - NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

AUSTIN, TX – NOVEMBER 28: Wide receiver KC Concepcion #7 of the Texas A&M Aggies scores a touchdown in front of linebacker Liona Lefau #18 of the Texas Longhorns during the SEC football game between Texas Longhorns and Texas A&M Aggies on November 28, 2025, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

In today’s NFL, where players are asked to do more things at more positions than ever before, you’d think that versatility would be a strong point. But when Texas A&M receiver KC Concepcion won the 2025 Paul Hornung Award, given annually to the most versatile player in major college football, it seemed to bake in the notion that Concepcion is more of a trick-shot artist than a pure receiver capable of maintaining the force of an entire passing game.

“He’s almost like a gadget guy, the way they play him,” one NFL scout told veteran writer Bob McGinn. “It’s going to be a while before he’s anything. Looks like a track guy. You can tell he can run when things are free. They scheme him up for his production. Doesn’t catch the ball well. Lot of drops around a lot of bodies. Doesn’t have catch radius. They do this slip-screen stuff with him and he has no run after the catch.”

Okay, so the hands need help. Concepcion had seven drops last season, but I saw as much or more focus issues (gotta catch the ball before you look to turn and run, dude) than the idea that he dries up and blows away with defender around him. Last season, the 6’0”, 196-pound Concepcion caught 61 passes on 101 targets for 919 yards and nine touchdowns, and while he did have a lot of screen and hitch targets, his average depth of target was 12.3 yards, and he also put up a ton of big plays on longer-developing routes. You don’t catch eight passes of 20 or more air yards on 21 targets for 240 yards and two touchdowns if all you’re doing is gimmicky YAC stuff.

Moreover, Concepcion has added to his route palette, and he knows how to get open just about everywhere on the field. So, just because he’s a jack of all trades doesn’t mean that he’s a master of none.

Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt: He doesn’t block!

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Nov 8, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) makes a catch against the Auburn Tigers during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The aforementioned rise of 12 and 13 personnel (two and three tight ends on the field) also means that not all of your tight ends have to be created out of the same mold. Sean McVay didn’t win over and over with his hilarious 13 personnel uptick last season because he had three big blockers on the field, per se — it also worked because he had different kinds of tight ends for different purposes. Do you want good blockers on the edge of the formation? Sure. But does it also help to have tight ends who are just great pass-catchers?

It certainly does. Go figure.

So, when we discuss Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers, does it matter that he’s not a great blocker yet? I mean, you’d want a bit more than what was shown in the 2025 season, but if you’re crossing him off your list because he’s not Peak Gronk as a tough guy, maybe you’re missing the point.

Last season, Stowers caught 62 passes on 85 targets for 769 yards and four touchdowns, and if anything, I think that his NFL team will be able to make more of his vertical juice than the Commodores did. It’s also important to mention that Stowers is a converted quarterback, who only started playing tight end with New Mexico State in 2023 after he suffered a throwing shoulder injury early on in his time with Texas A&M. This is a player where you have to look at the developmental curve and what can be done, as opposed to what’s still in the incubator.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama: He’s an out-of-shape bust!

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)

PASADENA, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 01: Kadyn Proctor #74 of the Alabama Crimson Tide in action against the Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl Stadium on January 01, 2026 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Getty Images

When Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor showed up at the scouting combine standing 6’ 6 ⅝” and weighing 352 pounds, you could hear the entire Draft Industrial Complex (and a lot of NFL teams) breathing a rather large sigh of relief. Because Proctor’s weight has been an issue in the past. It’s one reason why, in 2023, Proctor looked like a whale out of water as the Crimson Tide’s left tackle. That’s when he allowed 12 sacks and 36 total pressures in 408 pass-blocking snaps, and if you told me at that point that he was a future first-round pick, I would asked you for some of what you were smoking.

That has seemed to stick with Proctor to a point, even though his blocking and conditioning have improved exponentially over the last two seasons. In 2025, he gave up two sacks and 21 pressures in 611 pass-blocking snaps (by far his career high), and he was much more forceful and agile overall.

Jeremiah and Brooks know what they’re talking about, and they both talk to NFL teams, so this is still a thing. I’m not as worried about the weight fluctuation because it’s been overplayed to a degree overall, and given the fact that Proctor had multiple plays last season in which he exceeded 16 miler per hour on the move, he’s clearly done some work. It will be on his NFL team to make sure the work is consistently done.

Caleb Downs, DB, Ohio State: He’s not fast enough!

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (2) celebrates after sacking Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) in the second half of the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.
Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Caleb Downs is one of the best defensive prospects in this class — one of the best overall — but it may be that he has the curse of making everything look too easy. I can think of no other reason why Downs’ on-field speed would be the issue it has become.

Karim Kassam, vice president of product at the data company Teamworks, recently told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert that based on his company’s AI modeling and evaluation, Downs’ play speed is a problem.

“They might see that his [particular obstacle] is going to be his athleticism, that he’s not going to be able to run with receivers the way that some other safeties can,” Kassam said. “… Based on the numbers, you might not see him as someone that can flex outside and cover even a premier tight end, or be a center-field-safety type that’s going to cover a lot of ground. That might not be his thing. He’s going to be more of a box-slot type of safety.”

Well, there’s that… and then, there’s the tape. Last season, Downs played 54% of his snaps in the deep third as either a single-high or two-deep safety, and overall, he allowed 25 catches on 38 targets for 168 yards, 92 yards after the catch, no touchdowns, two interceptions, one pass breakup, and an opponent passer rating of 53.4.

My NFL comparison all along for Downs has been Xavier McKinney, who came out of Alabama in the 2020 draft after running a 4.63-second 40-yard dash (Downs didn’t run at his combine or pro day), but became an amazing top-down defender at multiple positions because his anticipation skills were and are so great. No, Downs isn’t a “unicorn” like Kyle Hamilton or Nick Emmanwori, but if you fast-forwarded to a future in which Downs became the next Brian Branch or Derwin James, I wouldn’t blink an eye. Whichever NFL team that drafted him would probably be pretty happy with that outcome.

#NFL #draft #prospects #desperately #overthinking

As much as it kills me to say this, given that there’s less than a…

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tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.

The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.

With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.

14. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.

It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.

TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
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The Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.

Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.

The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.

The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Wolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

CLEVELAND, OHIO – FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
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The Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.

The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.

The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.

Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)

SAN ANTONIO, TX – APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)
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The Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.

Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.

The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.

#NBA #Playoffs #teams #ranked #championship #chances"> NBA Playoffs teams ranked by their 2026 championship chances  It feels like the difference between the NBA’s regular season and playoffs becomes more stark every year. While high-scoring games and tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.14. Portland Trail BlazersThe Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images) Getty ImagesThe Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.8. Minnesota TimberwolvesWolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.CLEVELAND, OHIO – FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) Getty ImagesThe Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.SAN ANTONIO, TX – APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty ImagesThe Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.  #NBA #Playoffs #teams #ranked #championship #chances
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tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.

The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.

With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.

14. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.

It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.

TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
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The Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.

Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.

The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.

The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Wolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

CLEVELAND, OHIO – FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
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The Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.

The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.

The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.

Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)

SAN ANTONIO, TX – APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)
NBAE via Getty Images

The Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.

Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.

The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.

#NBA #Playoffs #teams #ranked #championship #chances">NBA Playoffs teams ranked by their 2026 championship chances

It feels like the difference between the NBA’s regular season and playoffs becomes more stark every year. While high-scoring games and tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.

The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.

With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.

14. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.

It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.

TORONTO, CANADA - APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

TORONTO, CANADA – APRIL 7: Scottie Barnes #4 of the Toronto Raptors dunks against the Miami Heat during the second half of their basketball game at the Scotiabank Arena on April 7, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
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The Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.

Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.

The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.

The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Wolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.

CLEVELAND, OHIO - FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

CLEVELAND, OHIO – FEBRUARY 19: Donovan Mitchell #45 and James Harden #1 of the Cleveland Cavaliers celebrate a dunk by Mitchell during the first half against the Brooklyn Nets at Rocket Arena on February 19, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
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The Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.

The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.

The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.

Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.

SAN ANTONIO, TX - APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)

SAN ANTONIO, TX – APRIL 10: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs smiles during the game against the Dallas Mavericks on April 10, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Brandon Todd/NBAE via Getty Images)
NBAE via Getty Images

The Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.

Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.

The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.

#NBA #Playoffs #teams #ranked #championship #chances

It feels like the difference between the NBA’s regular season and playoffs becomes more stark…

Aston Villa sets up all-English Europa League semifinal against Nottingham Forest

But Howe said he wanted players fully committed to the club and ‌Newcastle’s future despite the transfer talk around them.

“The biggest thing I look for is the commitment to training … I won’t play a player if I don’t think they are 100% committed to the club and its future. I’m not talking about Anthony here, I’m talking generally across the board,” he ‌said.

“When they’re high profile, like the ones we have here, they’re in ​the news all the time for lots of different reasons.

“It comes with the territory. You have to ⁠adjust and adapt to it, you have to understand to it, ⁠and try to play to your best level with the noise around you.

“I don’t think you get to ‌this level without the ability to do that. I don’t think any player can use that as an excuse ​towards lower performances. The lads internally aren’t.”

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Howe #Guimaraes #update #ahead #Newcastle #United #Bournemouth #Premier #League #clash"> Howe provides Guimaraes update ahead of Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Premier League clash  Newcastle United may be boosted by the return of captain Bruno Guimaraes after a two-month absence due ​to a hamstring injury when it hosts Bournemouth in the Premier League ‌on Saturday, manager Eddie Howe said.Guimaraes, who is ​Newcastle’s top-scorer in the Premier League this ⁠season with nine goals, has been pushing to come back as soon as possible, Howe told reporters on Friday.“The medical team are trying ‌to hold him back … I say hold him back, there’s always that tug because the player is ‌desperate to play and I love that with Bruno,” ‌the ⁠manager said. “I’ll make a decision based on what I ⁠see in training today, but there is a chance.”Brazil midfielder Guimaraes played a key role for his country during the World Cup qualifiers, and the ​injury saw him miss ‌this year’s friendlies against France and Croatia ahead of the tournament starting in June.However, the 28-year-old’s form before his injury has sparked media speculation of a potential move to Real ‌Madrid or Manchester United in the close season.Newcastle’s ​England forward Anthony Gordon, who has 10 goals in the Champions League this season, has also been ⁠linked with several clubs, including Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Arsenal.ALSO READ | Aston Villa sets up all-English Europa League semifinal against Nottingham ForestBut Howe said he wanted players fully committed to the club and ‌Newcastle’s future despite the transfer talk around them.“The biggest thing I look for is the commitment to training … I won’t play a player if I don’t think they are 100% committed to the club and its future. I’m not talking about Anthony here, I’m talking generally across the board,” he ‌said.“When they’re high profile, like the ones we have here, they’re in ​the news all the time for lots of different reasons.“It comes with the territory. You have to ⁠adjust and adapt to it, you have to understand to it, ⁠and try to play to your best level with the noise around you.“I don’t think you get to ‌this level without the ability to do that. I don’t think any player can use that as an excuse ​towards lower performances. The lads internally aren’t.”Published on Apr 17, 2026  #Howe #Guimaraes #update #ahead #Newcastle #United #Bournemouth #Premier #League #clash
Sports news

Aston Villa sets up all-English Europa League semifinal against Nottingham Forest

But Howe said he wanted players fully committed to the club and ‌Newcastle’s future despite the transfer talk around them.

“The biggest thing I look for is the commitment to training … I won’t play a player if I don’t think they are 100% committed to the club and its future. I’m not talking about Anthony here, I’m talking generally across the board,” he ‌said.

“When they’re high profile, like the ones we have here, they’re in ​the news all the time for lots of different reasons.

“It comes with the territory. You have to ⁠adjust and adapt to it, you have to understand to it, ⁠and try to play to your best level with the noise around you.

“I don’t think you get to ‌this level without the ability to do that. I don’t think any player can use that as an excuse ​towards lower performances. The lads internally aren’t.”

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Howe #Guimaraes #update #ahead #Newcastle #United #Bournemouth #Premier #League #clash">Howe provides Guimaraes update ahead of Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Premier League clash

Newcastle United may be boosted by the return of captain Bruno Guimaraes after a two-month absence due ​to a hamstring injury when it hosts Bournemouth in the Premier League ‌on Saturday, manager Eddie Howe said.

Guimaraes, who is ​Newcastle’s top-scorer in the Premier League this ⁠season with nine goals, has been pushing to come back as soon as possible, Howe told reporters on Friday.

“The medical team are trying ‌to hold him back … I say hold him back, there’s always that tug because the player is ‌desperate to play and I love that with Bruno,” ‌the ⁠manager said. “I’ll make a decision based on what I ⁠see in training today, but there is a chance.”

Brazil midfielder Guimaraes played a key role for his country during the World Cup qualifiers, and the ​injury saw him miss ‌this year’s friendlies against France and Croatia ahead of the tournament starting in June.

However, the 28-year-old’s form before his injury has sparked media speculation of a potential move to Real ‌Madrid or Manchester United in the close season.

Newcastle’s ​England forward Anthony Gordon, who has 10 goals in the Champions League this season, has also been ⁠linked with several clubs, including Bayern Munich, Liverpool and Arsenal.

ALSO READ | Aston Villa sets up all-English Europa League semifinal against Nottingham Forest

But Howe said he wanted players fully committed to the club and ‌Newcastle’s future despite the transfer talk around them.

“The biggest thing I look for is the commitment to training … I won’t play a player if I don’t think they are 100% committed to the club and its future. I’m not talking about Anthony here, I’m talking generally across the board,” he ‌said.

“When they’re high profile, like the ones we have here, they’re in ​the news all the time for lots of different reasons.

“It comes with the territory. You have to ⁠adjust and adapt to it, you have to understand to it, ⁠and try to play to your best level with the noise around you.

“I don’t think you get to ‌this level without the ability to do that. I don’t think any player can use that as an excuse ​towards lower performances. The lads internally aren’t.”

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Howe #Guimaraes #update #ahead #Newcastle #United #Bournemouth #Premier #League #clash

Newcastle United may be boosted by the return of captain Bruno Guimaraes after a two-month…

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Apr 16, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) delivers a…

Canada vs New Zealand T20 World Cup 2026 match in Chennai under ICC Anti-Corruption Unit scrutiny: Report

The batting all-rounder batted at number three in the World Cup without much success. His team did not make the semifinal stage.

However in last month’s ODI series in Bangladesh, he had scores of 106, 64 and 5.

Salman also talked about the PSL and felt that while it was a good platform to identify new talent, he didn’t support picking young players directly from the league for international cricket.

“I would rather like to see a process where we identify strong young talent in the PSL and send them to play in domestic cricket and then review their performances and decide if they are ready for international cricket,” he added.

He said there were many examples in the past of some players being picked for international matches purely on PSL performances and not succeeding at the highest level.

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Pakistans #Salman #Ali #Agha #break #T20 #format #focus #ODI #World #Cup"> Pakistan’s Salman Ali Agha considering break from T20 format to focus on 2027 ODI World Cup  Pakistan’s national T20 captain Salman Ali Agha is contemplating a break from the shortest format to focus on next year’s ODI World Cup and the ICC World Test Championship cycle.Salman said next year’s World Cup is the most significant event on the agenda, and if required, he would take a break from T20 cricket to prepare.The ODI World Cup is scheduled to be held in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia in October and November, next year.“The World Cup is a long way to go, but yes, one has to think about managing one’s schedule and workload. If I feel it (break) can help me in preparing for the World Cup and Tests, I will do it,” Salman told reporters here.Salman has been the national T20 captain for a year now, but questions are being raised about his position due to his recent struggles in the format.ALSO READ | Canada vs New Zealand T20 World Cup 2026 match in Chennai under ICC Anti-Corruption Unit scrutiny: ReportThe batting all-rounder batted at number three in the World Cup without much success. His team did not make the semifinal stage.However in last month’s ODI series in Bangladesh, he had scores of 106, 64 and 5.Salman also talked about the PSL and felt that while it was a good platform to identify new talent, he didn’t support picking young players directly from the league for international cricket.“I would rather like to see a process where we identify strong young talent in the PSL and send them to play in domestic cricket and then review their performances and decide if they are ready for international cricket,” he added.He said there were many examples in the past of some players being picked for international matches purely on PSL performances and not succeeding at the highest level.Published on Apr 17, 2026  #Pakistans #Salman #Ali #Agha #break #T20 #format #focus #ODI #World #Cup
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Canada vs New Zealand T20 World Cup 2026 match in Chennai under ICC Anti-Corruption Unit scrutiny: Report

The batting all-rounder batted at number three in the World Cup without much success. His team did not make the semifinal stage.

However in last month’s ODI series in Bangladesh, he had scores of 106, 64 and 5.

Salman also talked about the PSL and felt that while it was a good platform to identify new talent, he didn’t support picking young players directly from the league for international cricket.

“I would rather like to see a process where we identify strong young talent in the PSL and send them to play in domestic cricket and then review their performances and decide if they are ready for international cricket,” he added.

He said there were many examples in the past of some players being picked for international matches purely on PSL performances and not succeeding at the highest level.

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Pakistans #Salman #Ali #Agha #break #T20 #format #focus #ODI #World #Cup">Pakistan’s Salman Ali Agha considering break from T20 format to focus on 2027 ODI World Cup

Pakistan’s national T20 captain Salman Ali Agha is contemplating a break from the shortest format to focus on next year’s ODI World Cup and the ICC World Test Championship cycle.

Salman said next year’s World Cup is the most significant event on the agenda, and if required, he would take a break from T20 cricket to prepare.

The ODI World Cup is scheduled to be held in South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Namibia in October and November, next year.

“The World Cup is a long way to go, but yes, one has to think about managing one’s schedule and workload. If I feel it (break) can help me in preparing for the World Cup and Tests, I will do it,” Salman told reporters here.

Salman has been the national T20 captain for a year now, but questions are being raised about his position due to his recent struggles in the format.

ALSO READ | Canada vs New Zealand T20 World Cup 2026 match in Chennai under ICC Anti-Corruption Unit scrutiny: Report

The batting all-rounder batted at number three in the World Cup without much success. His team did not make the semifinal stage.

However in last month’s ODI series in Bangladesh, he had scores of 106, 64 and 5.

Salman also talked about the PSL and felt that while it was a good platform to identify new talent, he didn’t support picking young players directly from the league for international cricket.

“I would rather like to see a process where we identify strong young talent in the PSL and send them to play in domestic cricket and then review their performances and decide if they are ready for international cricket,” he added.

He said there were many examples in the past of some players being picked for international matches purely on PSL performances and not succeeding at the highest level.

Published on Apr 17, 2026

#Pakistans #Salman #Ali #Agha #break #T20 #format #focus #ODI #World #Cup

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