The analysis company’s Commodities at Sea monitoring also recorded outbound oil and product flows averaging about 20.4 million barrels per day in February to date, slightly below January levels—evidence that geopolitical tension alone can slow shipments before any physical disruption occurs.
“Hormuz risk is not only about closure but also fleet productivity. If Iran escalates by seizing tankers or using drones to threaten commercial traffic, voyage times and possibly costs for Middle East oil exports would further increase,” S&P Global CERA analysts said.
Multiple shipping companies have already reported that they are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and expect delays and rescheduling of shipments.
What Would Closing the Strait Mean?
There is no alternative export system at comparable scale. Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate bypass pipelines, but these cover only a portion of Gulf flows, while Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar lack meaningful alternatives.
If the strait formally closed, most oil exports from the Gulf would be cut off from the world almost immediately. Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushed their alternative pipelines to the limit, analysts say about two-thirds of Gulf exports would still be stuck.
LNG markets would also be hit. Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas—a super-cooled form of natural gas shipped by tanker—depends almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz to export its fuel.
If the route were blocked, Asian buyers could lose their key suppliers within days. Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, China, and India depend heavily on imported LNG to generate electricity.
Getting oil from elsewhere, like the Atlantic, would mean longer shipping times and higher costs, potentially pushing prices even higher.
How It Could Affect Consumers
Historical modeling suggests that sudden loss of Gulf supply could push oil prices sharply higher.
If that happens, the effects would likely reach global consumers quickly: higher gas prices, more expensive airline tickets, and rising transport costs that feed into the price of food and goods.
Financial markets typically react even before physical shortages appear, with oil futures rising, transport-sector equities weakening, and currencies of major energy exporters strengthening as traders price in the risk of disruption.
Strategic petroleum reserves could moderate the shock, but releases take time and cannot fully substitute for Gulf crude grades.
Inside the Gulf, stopping exports would quickly strain government finances. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar rely heavily on oil revenues to fund public spending. If shipments halted, storage facilities could fill rapidly, forcing producers to cut output and lose income.
Shipping effects would extend beyond oil. Tanker rerouting, insurance repricing, and naval risk zones tend to raise freight rates across bulk commodities and container shipping, impacting worldwide logistics.
This story originally appeared on WIRED Middle East.
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![The Next Big ‘Magic: The Gathering’ Set Is a Multiverse Adventure
Magic: The Gathering will continue expanding this year—both for fans of its crossover sets, and those all in on the primary game. At Friday’s Magic Con, Wizards of the Coast announced several new sets, with the main course being Reality Fracture. Releasing in October, the set will wrap up the game’s current arc wherein Planeswalker Jace has created an alternate universe so he can undo damage previously caused by the Phyrexians and Eldrazi. The Echoverse introduces new versions of popular Magic characters, like Chandra having ice magic rather than her usual fire. Fracture’s creative and narrative lead Meris Mullaley told Polygon the new versions of Chandra and other mainstays like Ajani and Garruk are born from Jace’s goal to make “the perfect multiverse, [which] comes with some of his own biases. Chandra’s impulsiveness was something he bumped up against a lot. Where did that come from, what in her life shaped her to be that way? As Jace is crafting his multiverse, he’s like, ‘What if her dad didn’t die? What if he and Chandra were helping run Avishkar?’” On the crossover front, Wizards is going back to Middle-earth with a Hobbit set for Magic: The Gathering. Following the Lord of the Rings set from 2023, the characters and locations of J.R.R. Tolkien’s prequel will get their own cards, with legacy characters like Gandalf and Bilbo receiving updates. If that weren’t enough, some cards have artwork similar to book covers, and others are done in the dwarven language. Wizards of the Coast will bring The Hobbit to Magic: The Gathering on August 14, and Reality Fracture will hit stores on October 2. You can read about Wizards’ upcoming, fully new game Mood Swings here. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #Big #Magic #Gathering #Set #Multiverse #AdventureMagic: The Gathering,The Hobbit,Wizards of the Coast The Next Big ‘Magic: The Gathering’ Set Is a Multiverse Adventure
Magic: The Gathering will continue expanding this year—both for fans of its crossover sets, and those all in on the primary game. At Friday’s Magic Con, Wizards of the Coast announced several new sets, with the main course being Reality Fracture. Releasing in October, the set will wrap up the game’s current arc wherein Planeswalker Jace has created an alternate universe so he can undo damage previously caused by the Phyrexians and Eldrazi. The Echoverse introduces new versions of popular Magic characters, like Chandra having ice magic rather than her usual fire. Fracture’s creative and narrative lead Meris Mullaley told Polygon the new versions of Chandra and other mainstays like Ajani and Garruk are born from Jace’s goal to make “the perfect multiverse, [which] comes with some of his own biases. Chandra’s impulsiveness was something he bumped up against a lot. Where did that come from, what in her life shaped her to be that way? As Jace is crafting his multiverse, he’s like, ‘What if her dad didn’t die? What if he and Chandra were helping run Avishkar?’” On the crossover front, Wizards is going back to Middle-earth with a Hobbit set for Magic: The Gathering. Following the Lord of the Rings set from 2023, the characters and locations of J.R.R. Tolkien’s prequel will get their own cards, with legacy characters like Gandalf and Bilbo receiving updates. If that weren’t enough, some cards have artwork similar to book covers, and others are done in the dwarven language. Wizards of the Coast will bring The Hobbit to Magic: The Gathering on August 14, and Reality Fracture will hit stores on October 2. You can read about Wizards’ upcoming, fully new game Mood Swings here. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #Big #Magic #Gathering #Set #Multiverse #AdventureMagic: The Gathering,The Hobbit,Wizards of the Coast](https://gizmodo.com/app/uploads/2026/05/magic-gathering-reality-1280x853.jpg)
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