The analysis company’s Commodities at Sea monitoring also recorded outbound oil and product flows averaging about 20.4 million barrels per day in February to date, slightly below January levels—evidence that geopolitical tension alone can slow shipments before any physical disruption occurs.
“Hormuz risk is not only about closure but also fleet productivity. If Iran escalates by seizing tankers or using drones to threaten commercial traffic, voyage times and possibly costs for Middle East oil exports would further increase,” S&P Global CERA analysts said.
Multiple shipping companies have already reported that they are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and expect delays and rescheduling of shipments.
What Would Closing the Strait Mean?
There is no alternative export system at comparable scale. Saudi Arabia and the UAE operate bypass pipelines, but these cover only a portion of Gulf flows, while Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar lack meaningful alternatives.
If the strait formally closed, most oil exports from the Gulf would be cut off from the world almost immediately. Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE pushed their alternative pipelines to the limit, analysts say about two-thirds of Gulf exports would still be stuck.
LNG markets would also be hit. Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas—a super-cooled form of natural gas shipped by tanker—depends almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz to export its fuel.
If the route were blocked, Asian buyers could lose their key suppliers within days. Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, China, and India depend heavily on imported LNG to generate electricity.
Getting oil from elsewhere, like the Atlantic, would mean longer shipping times and higher costs, potentially pushing prices even higher.
How It Could Affect Consumers
Historical modeling suggests that sudden loss of Gulf supply could push oil prices sharply higher.
If that happens, the effects would likely reach global consumers quickly: higher gas prices, more expensive airline tickets, and rising transport costs that feed into the price of food and goods.
Financial markets typically react even before physical shortages appear, with oil futures rising, transport-sector equities weakening, and currencies of major energy exporters strengthening as traders price in the risk of disruption.
Strategic petroleum reserves could moderate the shock, but releases take time and cannot fully substitute for Gulf crude grades.
Inside the Gulf, stopping exports would quickly strain government finances. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar rely heavily on oil revenues to fund public spending. If shipments halted, storage facilities could fill rapidly, forcing producers to cut output and lose income.
Shipping effects would extend beyond oil. Tanker rerouting, insurance repricing, and naval risk zones tend to raise freight rates across bulk commodities and container shipping, impacting worldwide logistics.
This story originally appeared on WIRED Middle East.
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![‘Ninja Scroll’ Is Slashing Back to Theaters in October
The 1993 samurai anime film Ninja Scroll is coming back with a limited theatrical run this fall. Per IGN, Iconic Events and AMC are teaming for a re-release on October 4, 5, and 7. (At time of writing, it’s exclusively locked to North America.) The remastered version will play its original 35mm negatives in 4K using a process that “repairs any damage and [performs] color correction to create an archival-quality digital master of the film.” Directed and written by Yoshiaki Kawajiri and created by Animate Film, Ninja Scroll tells the story of mercenary swordsman Kibagamei Jubei. Set in feudal Japan, Jubei is tasked with killing the Eight Devils of Kimon, supernatural ninjas aiming to take over the Tokugawa shogunate. Praised for its animation and action, the film was highly regarded when it came out and is considered a great contributor (alongside Akira and Ghost in the Shell) to adult anime’s popularity in the West. (That’s at least true for the Wachowskis, who cited the film as a big influence on The Matrix, and later brought on Kawajiri to direct and write two segments of The Animatrix.) [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrfUIekIpEA[/embed] In the years since Ninja Scroll’s release, it’s become a bit of a franchise unto itself: it had a standalone sequel series in 2003 and a 12-issue miniseries in 2006 by J. Torres and Michael Chang Ting Yu.
Animation studio Madhouse announced a sequel in 2008 helmed by Kawajiri that stalled out, and that same year saw Warner Bros. announce a live-action movie that also didn’t go anywhere. (Oh, noooooo, that’s sooooooo sad.) Tickets for the Ninja Scroll re-release will go on sale in the coming weeks. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #Ninja #Scroll #Slashing #Theaters #OctoberNinja Scroll,Yoshiaki Kawajiri ‘Ninja Scroll’ Is Slashing Back to Theaters in October
The 1993 samurai anime film Ninja Scroll is coming back with a limited theatrical run this fall. Per IGN, Iconic Events and AMC are teaming for a re-release on October 4, 5, and 7. (At time of writing, it’s exclusively locked to North America.) The remastered version will play its original 35mm negatives in 4K using a process that “repairs any damage and [performs] color correction to create an archival-quality digital master of the film.” Directed and written by Yoshiaki Kawajiri and created by Animate Film, Ninja Scroll tells the story of mercenary swordsman Kibagamei Jubei. Set in feudal Japan, Jubei is tasked with killing the Eight Devils of Kimon, supernatural ninjas aiming to take over the Tokugawa shogunate. Praised for its animation and action, the film was highly regarded when it came out and is considered a great contributor (alongside Akira and Ghost in the Shell) to adult anime’s popularity in the West. (That’s at least true for the Wachowskis, who cited the film as a big influence on The Matrix, and later brought on Kawajiri to direct and write two segments of The Animatrix.) [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrfUIekIpEA[/embed] In the years since Ninja Scroll’s release, it’s become a bit of a franchise unto itself: it had a standalone sequel series in 2003 and a 12-issue miniseries in 2006 by J. Torres and Michael Chang Ting Yu.
Animation studio Madhouse announced a sequel in 2008 helmed by Kawajiri that stalled out, and that same year saw Warner Bros. announce a live-action movie that also didn’t go anywhere. (Oh, noooooo, that’s sooooooo sad.) Tickets for the Ninja Scroll re-release will go on sale in the coming weeks. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #Ninja #Scroll #Slashing #Theaters #OctoberNinja Scroll,Yoshiaki Kawajiri](https://gizmodo.com/app/uploads/2026/06/ninja-scroll-hed-1280x853.jpg)
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