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AFC Championship Game: Analytics predicts which team is headed to the Super Bowl

AFC Championship Game: Analytics predicts which team is headed to the Super Bowl

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As the week turns into the weekend, and much of the country prepares for both conference championship games and a huge snowstorm, many assume that Denver’s Super Bowl hopes ended with the Nix news, but QB Jarrett Stidham will be ready to prove everyone wrong. The Broncos have been carried by their defense for much of the season and veteran head coach Sean Payton has a proven track record of offensive success to fall back on.

On the other side is the return of the “Evil Empire” of the NFL with the New England Patriots. The combination of MVP finalist QB Drake Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel has turned the Patriots into a true Super Bowl contender, a year removed from having a top-five pick in the NFL draft. Unlike their AFC title game opponent, New England has been carried by their offense in the regular season, while their defense has improved slightly in the postseason.

Unfortunately, DVOA’s data is unable to predict what Nix’s injury means for the Broncos. While no one assumes that Stidham is at the same level, quarterback play can be impacted by a myriad of variables that could help him produce similarly to Nix.

With the teams having competed in multiple postseason games, for the championship round, we will be using FTN’s data for both the regular season and playoffs combined.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

Edge: Patriots – Does defense still win championships? The AFC title game will be a good test as New England barely edges out Denver with the fourth-ranked offense versus the fifth-ranked defense. The Nix factor is the unknown variable, but likely accounts for the current -4.5 spread in favor of the Patriots.

DVOA provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers, or while making daily fantasy decisions. We are excited to see the AFC Championship game played on the field and see whether or not FTN’s DVOA was able to predict the conference’s Super Bowl participant.

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Cherie DeVaux made history on Saturday by becoming the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. However, with a horde of media surrounding her at her backside stable Sunday morning, she was quick to give the credit to jockey Jose Ortiz.

“It’s almost as if he could script it,” she said.

With an entry that’s known for being a closer, DeVaux said she did not mind Golden Tempo drawing an outside post. He got the 19th gate in the draw, but after scratches, he moved into the 16th. While a ways away from the rail, it helped the colt avoid much of the bumping between horses at the start as they work to get inside position.

DeVaux said she’s not one to give her riders many instructions before a race. She kept it simple: “Don’t overthink it. If you can get out, just get a clear path and make a run.”

Mission accomplished, even if the horse doesn’t quite live up to his name.

“Golden Tempo doesn’t really give Jose any help by just falling back so far,” she added.

While the early front-runners posted blazing quarter times, Golden Tempo ran last in the field for the first three-quarters of a mile. However, as the speed faded, Ortiz had an easy route to the outside, and down the final stretch, he chased down Renegade, the bettors’ second choice, to win by a neck.

Another issue that may have been in Golden Tempo’s favor was not having to load into the gate a second time. That’s something several horses had to do after racing officials scratched Great White at the last minute for dumping jockey Alex Achard and falling over backward while being led to the gate.

“It was a rough trip, everybody was all over the place,” said Luis Saez, who rode seventh-place finisher Commandment. “He ran pretty well and made a nice move, but it was just a tough race.”

Commandment, one of two Derby horses trained by Brad Cox, was the co-second choice in the morning line. At post time, he ended up being the fourth choice at 6-1. Cox’s other horse, Further Ado, ended up the slight favorite over Renegade, with both breaking at 5-1.

Renegade was the morning-line favorite, despite drawing the inside post – a position that had not produced a winner in 40 years. However, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt and Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose’s brother, did everything they could to make some history of their own.

“He got a little roughed and got pushed out of his position,” Pletcher said. “But he kept on going and made his run. He just didn’t get there today.”

With the Kentucky Derby having the largest field of any U.S. thoroughbred race, longshots often find their way to the winner’s circle. Since 2019, the lowest payout for a $2 win ticket was Sovereignty last year, and his bettors still won $17.96.

One of the other big surprises Saturday was the bettors’ interest in So Happy. While he and jockey Mike Smith won the Santa Anita Derby, the colt was given morning line odds of 15-1. That was due primarily to his being sired by Runhappy, who was an excellent sprinter.

Bettors made him the third choice at 5-1.

So Happy stayed among the front pack for the first mile but faded down the stretch to finish ninth.

“He just did too much early on, and we went too fast,” Smith said.

#Cherie #DeVaux #History #Kentucky #Derby #Win #Churchill #Downs #Deadspin.com">Cherie DeVaux Makes History with Kentucky Derby Win at Churchill Downs | Deadspin.com Cherie DeVaux made history on Saturday by becoming the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. However, with a horde of media surrounding her at her backside stable Sunday morning, she was quick to give the credit to jockey Jose Ortiz.“It’s almost as if he could script it,” she said.With an entry that’s known for being a closer, DeVaux said she did not mind Golden Tempo drawing an outside post. He got the 19th gate in the draw, but after scratches, he moved into the 16th. While a ways away from the rail, it helped the colt avoid much of the bumping between horses at the start as they work to get inside position.DeVaux said she’s not one to give her riders many instructions before a race. She kept it simple: “Don’t overthink it. If you can get out, just get a clear path and make a run.”Mission accomplished, even if the horse doesn’t quite live up to his name.“Golden Tempo doesn’t really give Jose any help by just falling back so far,” she added.While the early front-runners posted blazing quarter times, Golden Tempo ran last in the field for the first three-quarters of a mile. However, as the speed faded, Ortiz had an easy route to the outside, and down the final stretch, he chased down Renegade, the bettors’ second choice, to win by a neck.Another issue that may have been in Golden Tempo’s favor was not having to load into the gate a second time. That’s something several horses had to do after racing officials scratched Great White at the last minute for dumping jockey Alex Achard and falling over backward while being led to the gate.“It was a rough trip, everybody was all over the place,” said Luis Saez, who rode seventh-place finisher Commandment. “He ran pretty well and made a nice move, but it was just a tough race.”Commandment, one of two Derby horses trained by Brad Cox, was the co-second choice in the morning line. At post time, he ended up being the fourth choice at 6-1. Cox’s other horse, Further Ado, ended up the slight favorite over Renegade, with both breaking at 5-1.Renegade was the morning-line favorite, despite drawing the inside post – a position that had not produced a winner in 40 years. However, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt and Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose’s brother, did everything they could to make some history of their own.“He got a little roughed and got pushed out of his position,” Pletcher said. “But he kept on going and made his run. He just didn’t get there today.”With the Kentucky Derby having the largest field of any U.S. thoroughbred race, longshots often find their way to the winner’s circle. Since 2019, the lowest payout for a win ticket was Sovereignty last year, and his bettors still won .96.One of the other big surprises Saturday was the bettors’ interest in So Happy. While he and jockey Mike Smith won the Santa Anita Derby, the colt was given morning line odds of 15-1. That was due primarily to his being sired by Runhappy, who was an excellent sprinter.Bettors made him the third choice at 5-1.So Happy stayed among the front pack for the first mile but faded down the stretch to finish ninth.“He just did too much early on, and we went too fast,” Smith said. #Cherie #DeVaux #History #Kentucky #Derby #Win #Churchill #Downs #Deadspin.com

the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. However, with a horde of media surrounding her at her backside stable Sunday morning, she was quick to give the credit to jockey Jose Ortiz.

“It’s almost as if he could script it,” she said.

With an entry that’s known for being a closer, DeVaux said she did not mind Golden Tempo drawing an outside post. He got the 19th gate in the draw, but after scratches, he moved into the 16th. While a ways away from the rail, it helped the colt avoid much of the bumping between horses at the start as they work to get inside position.

DeVaux said she’s not one to give her riders many instructions before a race. She kept it simple: “Don’t overthink it. If you can get out, just get a clear path and make a run.”

Mission accomplished, even if the horse doesn’t quite live up to his name.

“Golden Tempo doesn’t really give Jose any help by just falling back so far,” she added.

While the early front-runners posted blazing quarter times, Golden Tempo ran last in the field for the first three-quarters of a mile. However, as the speed faded, Ortiz had an easy route to the outside, and down the final stretch, he chased down Renegade, the bettors’ second choice, to win by a neck.

Another issue that may have been in Golden Tempo’s favor was not having to load into the gate a second time. That’s something several horses had to do after racing officials scratched Great White at the last minute for dumping jockey Alex Achard and falling over backward while being led to the gate.

“It was a rough trip, everybody was all over the place,” said Luis Saez, who rode seventh-place finisher Commandment. “He ran pretty well and made a nice move, but it was just a tough race.”

Commandment, one of two Derby horses trained by Brad Cox, was the co-second choice in the morning line. At post time, he ended up being the fourth choice at 6-1. Cox’s other horse, Further Ado, ended up the slight favorite over Renegade, with both breaking at 5-1.

Renegade was the morning-line favorite, despite drawing the inside post – a position that had not produced a winner in 40 years. However, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt and Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose’s brother, did everything they could to make some history of their own.

“He got a little roughed and got pushed out of his position,” Pletcher said. “But he kept on going and made his run. He just didn’t get there today.”

With the Kentucky Derby having the largest field of any U.S. thoroughbred race, longshots often find their way to the winner’s circle. Since 2019, the lowest payout for a $2 win ticket was Sovereignty last year, and his bettors still won $17.96.

One of the other big surprises Saturday was the bettors’ interest in So Happy. While he and jockey Mike Smith won the Santa Anita Derby, the colt was given morning line odds of 15-1. That was due primarily to his being sired by Runhappy, who was an excellent sprinter.

Bettors made him the third choice at 5-1.

So Happy stayed among the front pack for the first mile but faded down the stretch to finish ninth.

“He just did too much early on, and we went too fast,” Smith said.

#Cherie #DeVaux #History #Kentucky #Derby #Win #Churchill #Downs #Deadspin.com">Cherie DeVaux Makes History with Kentucky Derby Win at Churchill Downs | Deadspin.com

Cherie DeVaux made history on Saturday by becoming the first female trainer to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. However, with a horde of media surrounding her at her backside stable Sunday morning, she was quick to give the credit to jockey Jose Ortiz.

“It’s almost as if he could script it,” she said.

With an entry that’s known for being a closer, DeVaux said she did not mind Golden Tempo drawing an outside post. He got the 19th gate in the draw, but after scratches, he moved into the 16th. While a ways away from the rail, it helped the colt avoid much of the bumping between horses at the start as they work to get inside position.

DeVaux said she’s not one to give her riders many instructions before a race. She kept it simple: “Don’t overthink it. If you can get out, just get a clear path and make a run.”

Mission accomplished, even if the horse doesn’t quite live up to his name.

“Golden Tempo doesn’t really give Jose any help by just falling back so far,” she added.

While the early front-runners posted blazing quarter times, Golden Tempo ran last in the field for the first three-quarters of a mile. However, as the speed faded, Ortiz had an easy route to the outside, and down the final stretch, he chased down Renegade, the bettors’ second choice, to win by a neck.

Another issue that may have been in Golden Tempo’s favor was not having to load into the gate a second time. That’s something several horses had to do after racing officials scratched Great White at the last minute for dumping jockey Alex Achard and falling over backward while being led to the gate.

“It was a rough trip, everybody was all over the place,” said Luis Saez, who rode seventh-place finisher Commandment. “He ran pretty well and made a nice move, but it was just a tough race.”

Commandment, one of two Derby horses trained by Brad Cox, was the co-second choice in the morning line. At post time, he ended up being the fourth choice at 6-1. Cox’s other horse, Further Ado, ended up the slight favorite over Renegade, with both breaking at 5-1.

Renegade was the morning-line favorite, despite drawing the inside post – a position that had not produced a winner in 40 years. However, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt and Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose’s brother, did everything they could to make some history of their own.

“He got a little roughed and got pushed out of his position,” Pletcher said. “But he kept on going and made his run. He just didn’t get there today.”

With the Kentucky Derby having the largest field of any U.S. thoroughbred race, longshots often find their way to the winner’s circle. Since 2019, the lowest payout for a $2 win ticket was Sovereignty last year, and his bettors still won $17.96.

One of the other big surprises Saturday was the bettors’ interest in So Happy. While he and jockey Mike Smith won the Santa Anita Derby, the colt was given morning line odds of 15-1. That was due primarily to his being sired by Runhappy, who was an excellent sprinter.

Bettors made him the third choice at 5-1.

So Happy stayed among the front pack for the first mile but faded down the stretch to finish ninth.

“He just did too much early on, and we went too fast,” Smith said.

#Cherie #DeVaux #History #Kentucky #Derby #Win #Churchill #Downs #Deadspin.com

But that frustration worsened Sunday morning, when Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying following a post-session inspection.

During the post-qualifying scrutineering, race stewards found that the floor on Hadjar’s RB22 was protruding approximately two millimeters beyond the specifications allowed for in the 2026 F1 technical regulations. Hadjar and a Red Bull representative were summoned to a hearing with race officials, set for early Sunday morning.

Following the hearing, Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying.

In the report from race stewards, they noted that Red Bull “did not dispute the findings of the Technical Delegate that portions of the LHS and RHS floor boards were protruding 2mm out of the reference volume RV-FLOOR BOARD.”

Race officials imposed the standard penalty for a breach of the technical regulations, which is a disqualification from the session. Red Bull then requested that Hadjar be permitted to start the race, despite being disqualified from qualifying, and race officials granted that request.

Hadjar will line up 22nd on the grid, at the back of the field.

Speaking after qualifying, Hadjar outlined his frustration with the upgrades, and his performance during the hour.

“The car was very hard to drive, it was very fast. In Q3 I just couldn’t put it all together and on the other side we have no straight line speed,” Hadjar said after qualifying.

“I think it’s a very tricky track, very low grip with high track temperature. So nothing to do with what we had in the first three rounds. It’s not a very fluid racing track with good grip.

“It’s completely different and Max is very good at adapting to these conditions. In the corners I can tell you I’ve made big progress compared to yesterday. I just couldn’t tidy up like he did and on top of that I’m missing in every straight.”

Now he’ll have to make up significant ground on the track, in what is expected to be a very wet Miami Grand Prix.

#Isack #Hadjars #qualifying #disqualification #Miami #explained">Isack Hadjar’s qualifying disqualification at the Miami GP, explained Red Bull brought a series of upgrades to the Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix, hoping to unlock improved performance in the RB22. The decision seemed to pay immediate dividends for Max Verstappen, who put his RB22 on the front row during qualifying, and he will start second alongside pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli later today.However, Isack Hadjar qualified ninth — 0.825 seconds behind Verstappen — which was frustrating enough for the Red Bull driver.But that frustration worsened Sunday morning, when Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying following a post-session inspection.During the post-qualifying scrutineering, race stewards found that the floor on Hadjar’s RB22 was protruding approximately two millimeters beyond the specifications allowed for in the 2026 F1 technical regulations. Hadjar and a Red Bull representative were summoned to a hearing with race officials, set for early Sunday morning.Following the hearing, Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying.In the report from race stewards, they noted that Red Bull “did not dispute the findings of the Technical Delegate that portions of the LHS and RHS floor boards were protruding 2mm out of the reference volume RV-FLOOR BOARD.”Race officials imposed the standard penalty for a breach of the technical regulations, which is a disqualification from the session. Red Bull then requested that Hadjar be permitted to start the race, despite being disqualified from qualifying, and race officials granted that request.Hadjar will line up 22nd on the grid, at the back of the field.Speaking after qualifying, Hadjar outlined his frustration with the upgrades, and his performance during the hour.“The car was very hard to drive, it was very fast. In Q3 I just couldn’t put it all together and on the other side we have no straight line speed,” Hadjar said after qualifying.“I think it’s a very tricky track, very low grip with high track temperature. So nothing to do with what we had in the first three rounds. It’s not a very fluid racing track with good grip.“It’s completely different and Max is very good at adapting to these conditions. In the corners I can tell you I’ve made big progress compared to yesterday. I just couldn’t tidy up like he did and on top of that I’m missing in every straight.”Now he’ll have to make up significant ground on the track, in what is expected to be a very wet Miami Grand Prix. #Isack #Hadjars #qualifying #disqualification #Miami #explained

disqualified from qualifying following a post-session inspection.

During the post-qualifying scrutineering, race stewards found that the floor on Hadjar’s RB22 was protruding approximately two millimeters beyond the specifications allowed for in the 2026 F1 technical regulations. Hadjar and a Red Bull representative were summoned to a hearing with race officials, set for early Sunday morning.

Following the hearing, Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying.

In the report from race stewards, they noted that Red Bull “did not dispute the findings of the Technical Delegate that portions of the LHS and RHS floor boards were protruding 2mm out of the reference volume RV-FLOOR BOARD.”

Race officials imposed the standard penalty for a breach of the technical regulations, which is a disqualification from the session. Red Bull then requested that Hadjar be permitted to start the race, despite being disqualified from qualifying, and race officials granted that request.

Hadjar will line up 22nd on the grid, at the back of the field.

Speaking after qualifying, Hadjar outlined his frustration with the upgrades, and his performance during the hour.

“The car was very hard to drive, it was very fast. In Q3 I just couldn’t put it all together and on the other side we have no straight line speed,” Hadjar said after qualifying.

“I think it’s a very tricky track, very low grip with high track temperature. So nothing to do with what we had in the first three rounds. It’s not a very fluid racing track with good grip.

“It’s completely different and Max is very good at adapting to these conditions. In the corners I can tell you I’ve made big progress compared to yesterday. I just couldn’t tidy up like he did and on top of that I’m missing in every straight.”

Now he’ll have to make up significant ground on the track, in what is expected to be a very wet Miami Grand Prix.

#Isack #Hadjars #qualifying #disqualification #Miami #explained">Isack Hadjar’s qualifying disqualification at the Miami GP, explained

Red Bull brought a series of upgrades to the Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix, hoping to unlock improved performance in the RB22. The decision seemed to pay immediate dividends for Max Verstappen, who put his RB22 on the front row during qualifying, and he will start second alongside pole-sitter Kimi Antonelli later today.

However, Isack Hadjar qualified ninth — 0.825 seconds behind Verstappen — which was frustrating enough for the Red Bull driver.

But that frustration worsened Sunday morning, when Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying following a post-session inspection.

During the post-qualifying scrutineering, race stewards found that the floor on Hadjar’s RB22 was protruding approximately two millimeters beyond the specifications allowed for in the 2026 F1 technical regulations. Hadjar and a Red Bull representative were summoned to a hearing with race officials, set for early Sunday morning.

Following the hearing, Hadjar was disqualified from qualifying.

In the report from race stewards, they noted that Red Bull “did not dispute the findings of the Technical Delegate that portions of the LHS and RHS floor boards were protruding 2mm out of the reference volume RV-FLOOR BOARD.”

Race officials imposed the standard penalty for a breach of the technical regulations, which is a disqualification from the session. Red Bull then requested that Hadjar be permitted to start the race, despite being disqualified from qualifying, and race officials granted that request.

Hadjar will line up 22nd on the grid, at the back of the field.

Speaking after qualifying, Hadjar outlined his frustration with the upgrades, and his performance during the hour.

“The car was very hard to drive, it was very fast. In Q3 I just couldn’t put it all together and on the other side we have no straight line speed,” Hadjar said after qualifying.

“I think it’s a very tricky track, very low grip with high track temperature. So nothing to do with what we had in the first three rounds. It’s not a very fluid racing track with good grip.

“It’s completely different and Max is very good at adapting to these conditions. In the corners I can tell you I’ve made big progress compared to yesterday. I just couldn’t tidy up like he did and on top of that I’m missing in every straight.”

Now he’ll have to make up significant ground on the track, in what is expected to be a very wet Miami Grand Prix.

#Isack #Hadjars #qualifying #disqualification #Miami #explained
GT vs PBKS Live Score, IPL 2026: Shedge, Stoinis push Punjab Kings to 163 for nine; Holder takes four for Gujarat Titans Prabhsimran Singh, Priyansh Arya, Shreyas Iyer (c), Shashank Singh, Nehal Wadhera, Marcus Stoinis, Azmatullah Omarzai, Marco Jansen, Harpreet Brar, Yuzvendra Chahal, Arshdeep Singh, Musheer Khan, Pyala Avinash, Harnoor Pannu, Suryansh Shedge, Mitchell Owen, Xavier Bartlett, Lockie Ferguson, Vyshak Vijaykumar, Yash Thakur, Vishnu Vinod, Cooper Connolly, Ben Dwarshuis, Pravin Dubey, Vishal Nishad. #PBKS #Live #Score #IPL #Shedge #Stoinis #push #Punjab #Kings #Holder #takes #Gujarat #Titans

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