The term “draft surprise” always has negative connotations. It tends to conjure reminders of leaked Wonderlic scores, the off-field concern that wasn’t reported, or the injury that wasn’t revealed until draft night. However, in the 2026 NFL Draft we had one hell of a draft surprise drop that could change a lot about what we thought about this class.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who was being slated as a mid-round pick after a tragic senior season might have a full justification for why he was so bad in 2025. Tom Pellisero of the NFL Network is reporting that testing at the combine revealed that Nussmeier had a cyst on his spine, which was pressing on a nerve, causing significant pain and discomfort in his oblique muscles. During the season it was reported that the quarterback was dealing with a “persistent abdominal injury,” though the reason for the injury was largely unknown.

It’s difficult to overstate what a huge problem it is to try to play quarterback through an oblique injury. Every element of having good throwing mechanics involves driving off your legs, through your core, and finally to the arm. With pain and poor muscle reaction in that area, it fundamentally breaks the chain in the throwing motion altogether. If we look at Nussmeier’s season through this lens then so much more comes into focus.

Nussmeier was very inconsistent with his throws. On one play he’d throw a perfect spiral to a tight window, and on the next miss his guy completely. There were also numerous times he’d use too much arm and lose his technique, particularly when working off platform. Both of these can be directly attributed to the injury. Furthermore, he was labeled an injury concern because of the missed games — but in reality in was one continuing, ever-present injury that altered everything about how he played the position.

The Pellisero report says that Nussmeier will have surgery to remove the cyst, which is minimally invasive — and he can resume working out in 2-3 weeks after it’s complete. As soon as the incision site pain is gone and his stitches are removed, he’s good to go. In addition, because this was a nerve-based injury, as soon as the pressure is gone, there won’t be any lingering issues.

That’s where this gets fascinating.

There was no shortage of disappointment when it came to this class of quarterbacks. Entering the 2025 college football season Fernando Mendoza was firmly sitting in the QB4 slot, trending to be a late 1st round pick or at best falling somewhere in the teens. The three guys ahead of him: Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Garrett Nussmeier out of LSU, and LaNorris Sellers from South Carolina. It was basically Mendoza vs. Drew Allar for QB4.

Klubnik was abysmal and is almost undraftable at this point. Sellers returned to school to try and improve his draft stock. Allar will be a Day 3 pick. Mendoza is, and should be QB1, but if you’re now trying to work out QB2 there’s a real debate to be had inside your war room. Ty Simpson is QB2, all things being equal — but all things aren’t equal. This Nussmeier injury throws the entire process of scouting him into doubt, because now you really need to look back on 2024 and use that as the barometer, rather than his senior season.

There was real 1st round hype surrounding the LSU QB after his junior year. In April of last year he was No. 16 on the big board. There were definitely things Nussmeier needed to work on after his junior year, but those smaller mechanical fixes never got to take place. Regardless, in 2024 he finished the season with 4,052 yards passing on 64.2% completion, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. It was enough that we thought he would be the No. 2 overall pick in our too early mock draft, and the first QB off the board a few weeks into the college season. Nussmeier has huge arm talent, and above-average athleticism which leads to him having much more upside than Simpson, who might top out to be a Mac Jones-level QB at best.

That means if you’re sitting at the top of the 2nd round and debating on a QB there’s a real chance that the much better move is making Nussmeier QB2, trading up to the bottom of the 1st to get him with a fifth-year option. From where I sit this is still the kid who had all the promise in the world after his 2024 season at LSU. There are still concerns over his slight frame, but all things being equal there’s absolutely ludicrous bang-for-the-buck potential to get a guy who would have been a Top 5 pick at a total steal, all because he developed a cyst during last summer.

If the Pelissero report is correct and this the cyst is the reason why Nussmeier struggled, then watch out — because he will be the steal of the NFL Draft.