The NBA offseason still has a long ways to go, but the picture at the top and bottom of the league is already starting to solidify for the 2026-2027 season. The Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and New York Knicks feel like they’re in a class of their own as an elite tier of contenders. Who’s the fourth best in the NBA right now? Your guess is as good as mine.

The NBA’s new anti-tanking rules mean there are no more free wins on the schedule this season. Still, some teams are likely to be very bad, starting with the Sacramento Kings, Milwaukee Bucks, and Chicago Bulls. This year’s draft lottery features a “relegation zone” which lowers the odds at a top pick for the league’s three worst teams, though it also comes with the added benefit of falling no further than the No. 12 pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. Every other team could slide all the way to No. 16.

A second wave of offseason player movement is likely coming after LeBron James finally makes his free agent decision. There’s still hoops to talk about until then, so here’s our way-too-early look at the league power rankings for 2026-2027 in mid-July.

No. 7 overall pick Darius Acuff is going to get a long leash to run the show in Sacramento, but he just doesn’t have much help. Will Domantas Sabonis or Zach LaVine still be on this roster come opening night? The Kings have a decent collection of young talent starting to form with Maxime Raynaud, Dylan Cardwell, Nique Clifford, and Alex Karaban, and the goal of this season should be developing them alongside Acuff.

The Giannis era is over, and the Bucks are left with a funky roster that will probably be pretty bad. Will Tyler Herro actually play for Milwaukee this season, or get flipped closer to training camp? Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. actually looked pretty good last season, and Kel’el Ware is an exciting young big man coming over from Miami in the big trade. Most of the attention will be on how the Bucks’ two lottery picks Brayden Burries and Nate Ament develop.

The Bulls are going to be fun, but still project as an Eastern Conference doormat. Chicago’s two first-round rookies Caleb Wilson and Dailyn Swain should get plenty of reps, and it will be fascinating to see if last year’s lottery pick Noa Essengue can make an impact after a lost rookie season due to injury. A Matas Buzelis leap in year three would be huge for the Bulls’ long-term outlook.

A.J. Dybantsa is the star of the show after going No. 1 overall, and he’ll have a weird roster around him. Trae Young is on a new max contract for some reason. Anthony Davis is here for now, but maybe not for long. Alex Sarr and Tre Johnson are two former top-10 picks who need to develop around Dybantsa for Washington’s future to look bright.

The Clippers got great value back for Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac, but this season could be ugly. Rookie No. 5 overall pick Keaton Wagler has a lot riding on his shoulders long-term, and it will be interesting to see how he meshes with Darius Garland in the backcourt this year. There are still some solid vets here in Brook Lopez, Brandon Ingram, and Derrick Jones Jr., but I’m interested to see how youngsters Yanic Konan Niederhauser and Isaiah Jackson develop.

I think Brooklyn is going to surprise some people this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they push for a play-in spot. New addition Julius Randle joins Michael Porter Jr. as the leaders of this team, and it’s possible Egor Demin can take a leap in his second season. Jordi Fernandez is an elite head coach and will get the most of this group.

The Pelicans haven’t done a single thing this offseason yet. Alright, man. There’s some talent here with Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Derik Queen, and Jeremiah Fears, but new head coach Jamahl Mosley has his work cut out for him to mold this into a functional team.

23. Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry is still elite, but the team around him is lackluster at this point. It’s too bad Jimmy Butler will miss most of this season as he recovers from a torn ACL. Is this the year we start to hear real Curry trade speculation?

The Grizzlies are young, but the talent is real. Cameron Boozer is a future superstar, Zach Edey could be awesome if he can ever stay healthy, and Cedric Coward complements the two frontcourt stars well as a long 3-and-D wing. I actually like the guard collection quite a bit too with Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Cam Spencer all poised to make an impact.

The Hornets punted on LaMelo Ball, and in doing so killed their chances for this season. This team should still be pretty decent with Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, and Coby White launching threes around one of the league’s best offensive rebounding teams, but it’s hard to imagine they can make real noise without injuries to several other East teams.

Cooper Flagg, meet Dusty May. Dallas welcomes back Kyrie Irving from a torn ACL this season, and I like the trade for Santi Aldama. Can Dereck Lively II return from injury? I will be interested to see how Masai Ujiri and Mike Schmitz continue to put their stamp on this team, because it feels like a lot of these players could be flipped around Flagg.

The Suns feel like a classic high floor, low ceiling team. Devin Booker has some good role players around him in Collin Gillespie, Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Mark Williams, and Oso Ighodaro. Miles Bridges is here now too to complete Mat Ishbia’s Michigan State dream. I’m mostly interested in how last year’s No. 10 overall pick Khaman Maluach develops in the middle.

The Jazz are ready to make a big leap. Darryn Peterson will be an instant impact rookie, and he joins a talented veteran core led by Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Keyonte George. If Will Hardy is as good as a head coach as everyone believes he is, this team should push for the playoffs.

Atlanta gave the Knicks their toughest playoff series in the first-round last season, and they continue to build out their future talent pool. Rookies Kingston Flemings and Zuby Ejiofor could be instant contributors, and picking up Aaron Wiggins from the Thunder for nothing was a nice move, too. Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and CJ McCollum feels like a high floor, low ceiling group for this season, but the Hawks continue to move in the right direction.

16. Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are going to be fascinating with the return of Damian Lillard and the trade for Ja Morant. That seems like a poor fit to me, but at least Portland gave up absolutely nothing to get Morant from Memphis. Donovan Clingan and Scoot Henderson are the two most important players on the roster for the future of the franchise, and both could take a leap this season. The defense should be really good, and Deni Avdija will continue to be a battering ram off the bounce, but I don’t know if this team has enough of a ceiling to build on last year.

Sean Sweeney is the new head coach tasked with getting the most out of a talent Magic roster. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner just haven’t worked as well as expected together, and this might be their last chance with a massive payroll looming. If Sweeney is good and Jalen Suggs can actually stay healthy, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Orlando ends up much better than this.

Pat Riley finally landed his next superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the supporting cast needs work. The front court should be elite defensively with Giannis joining Bam Adebayo, but the offensive spacing will be a question mark. The backcourt has almost no shot-creation, but Erik Spoelstra is better than anyone at developing diamonds in the rough. He’s going to need to do it again for this team to win a playoff series.

The Rockets have been strangely quiet this summer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big move coming before the season opens. For now, the main thing to get excited about is the return of Fred VanVleet. Houston’s young core of Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. remains enticing, and it feels like all of them can still go up another level this season.

The Sixers are loaded with top-end talent after the stunning Jaylen Brown trade, but it’s hard to say how it will all fit together. Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe is a great foundation even before you get to Joel Embiid, whose uncertain health hangs over every Sixers season. I’m concerned about the depth and the defense of this team, especially when Embiid inevitably misses half the season.

Tyrese Haliburton is back from a torn Achilles, and the entire league will be wondering if he can pick up where he left off from Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. The team around him is mostly pretty similar save for swapping out Myles Turner for Ivica Zubac, which should be a big upgrade. Indiana might be the most interesting team entering the season.

I expect LeBron James to sign here, but we can’t bake that in yet. The Cavs are pretty good without him coming off a conference finals appearance. Donovan Mitchell is locked in long-term, and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen return in the front court. I just can’t count on a James Harden team (he’ll re-sign soon) to break through at this point.

I love the Raptors’ playoff ceiling after the Kawhi Leonard trade if he can stay healthy through an entire postseason run. That’s a huge if. Scottie Barnes, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Leonard should be an elite defensive trio. Getting anything from Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl this year would be a big boost.

The Pistons did some tinkering to the rotation, but it still feels like they have a lot of the same problems as last year. Cade Cunningham is awesome, and gives this team a high floor by himself. Jalen Duren should re-sign soon, and he’s better than he showed during the playoffs. Ausar Thompson might be the best wing defender in the league, and Ron Holland could make an impact there too if either of them could improve their outside shooting a little bit. Swapping out Tobias Harris for John Collins is … fine. Detroit could make the NBA Finals, but they have real pressure to at least make the conference finals this year.

The Nuggets haven’t done anything this summer as they wait out Peyton Watson’s restricted free agency. It definitely feels like they could make cost-cutting moves on the margins before the season starts, but we can’t factor those in yet. Denver looked old and slow last year, but they still have Nikola Jokic, who remains a top-3 player in the world. I can’t see the Nuggets falling too far as long as Jokic is around.

The Lakers went for broke to build around Luka Doncic this summer, and it better work. LA paid a ridiculous price for Walker Kessler, but he is exactly the type of defensive-minded center a team led by Doncic and Austin Reaves needs in the middle. My big hangup here is the lack of wing talent. I love Adou Thiero as much as the next draft guy, but it doesn’t feel great that the Lakers are legitimately counting on him to take a leap this year.

The Celtics are still going to be really good after trading Jaylen Brown. Boston is essentially replacing Brown with a full year of Jayson Tatum while adding Mitchell Robinson and Paul George. I’m buying a Payton Pritchard leap this year. The Celtics are going to launch threes, crash the offensive glass, and try to avoid turnovers, which is usually a great formula for the regular season.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves

The LaMelo Ball trade will define this franchise for the next few years at least. I think Ball is a highly impactful star guard, but his constant injury issues have a chance to derail this entire experience. If Ball can stay healthy, his elite handle, pull-up shooting, and passing vision feels like a perfect fit next to Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, and Jaden McDaniels. This team really needs Gobert to fight off father time. I’d like this group more if they had a bigger player in Ayo Dosunmu’s spot.

The Knicks only won 53 games in the regular season before finding magic in the playoffs on their way to one of the most dominant championship runs in recent league history. The bulk of this team is back minus Mitchell Robinson, who was a sneaky important piece off the bench. The key for the Knicks is going to be avoiding any decline by Jalen Brunson, and keeping Karl-Anthony Towns locked in to the best version of himself. If that happens, another trip to the NBA Finals could very well happen.

How will Victor Wembanyama respond to his crushing NBA Finals loss? Wemby would be wise to pace himself during the regular season, but it doesn’t seem like it’s in his nature to do it. The De’Aaron Fox question hangs over this franchise, because there’s no doubt Dylan Harper is ready to take over as their lead guard. Harper and Wembanyama will be showtime, and the supporting cast around them is improved. I like adding Tobias Harris at power forward in free agency, and I think Stephon Castle could benefit from transitioning from guard to wing. San Antonio will be very, very good around Wembanyama for the foreseeable future.

The Thunder may have gone back-to-back if not for untimely injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell. Williams essentially lost the entire season with soft tissue strains, and the Thunder desperately need him back playing at his top level given how big his cap hit is now. Oklahoma City did a nice job keeping their core in place even as they trimmed some salary by trading away Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Will Lu Dort be on this roster opening night? Can Chet Holmgren shake off his horrific Western Conference Finals and regain his status as one of the league’s best bigs? The Thunder have an oustanding formula with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot creation and an elite defense. They remain the team to beat until further notice.