OK, tough night last night. We’ve done our best with pitcher props lately so let’s stick to that for today’s MLB Picks.

Season Record 30-27-1, +0.41 Units

Giants at Brewers

Logan Webb Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-140 bet365)

I was semi-temped to go with Webb’s Over 5.5 K prop, but I like this one better. At his best, Webb is an innings eating machine. He’s not having his best of seasons by any stretch, in fact it’s basically his worst since 2020 as he’s got an ugly 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. But he still generally gives the Giants length as he’s gone at least 6 innings in 6 of his 9 starts. His three “fails” are the issue here as one was an Opening Night battering by the Yankees. I’ll blame Netflix for that one. The other two were his last two starts however. But he was injured, which may have led to a lousy 4 IP, 6 ER outing on May 5th vs. the Padres then a somewhat abbreviated 4.1 IP 86 pitch return on May 29th vs. the Rockies in Coors. He encouragingly pitched well as he allowed just 1 ER on 3 hits and 3 BB’s in a tough venue. I’m banking on Webb going to back to his usual workload tonight.

The opponent is tough tonight as the pesky Brewers give everyone fits. But they don’t whiff a bunch with just a 20.2% K% and they have a league worst 41 homers. Webb for his part has yielded just 4 bombs to the 228 batters he’s faced. So let’s bet on him to keep the game in control and get through 6.

Mets at Mariners

Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136 FanDuel)

It’s a bit of the opposite situation here as Peralta hasn’t given the Mets length at all this year, but he’s at least whiffing 9.27 batters per 9 IP. And the Mariners’ 23.7% K% at home is the 4th worst in MLB. And we might get an added edge on the margins. Josh Naylor and his elite low 13.4% K% missed the last game and a half with back spasms that seemed to happen on a home run trot on Monday. His replacement would be Patrick Wisdom. He’s got major pop but he also has a 42.1% K% in his 19 PA’s this year, and a 36.7% K% for his career. That’s incidentally why a guy with a 15% career Barrel% has never stuck in the majors. I like Peralta to get to his mark anyways and this would just be an added boost.