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Every MLB team, ranked by their 2026 World Series chances on Opening Day

Every MLB team, ranked by their 2026 World Series chances on Opening Day

The march to the World Series begins tonight, when the New York Yankees take on the San Francisco Giants. More teams join the action on Thursday, and by this weekend all 30 MLB teams will have begun the long journey to October.

Unfortunately for some teams, that journey may end quicker than hoped.

Ahead of the start to the 2026 MLB season, let’s take a look at each team’s chances of winning a World Series, by stacking the teams in tiers and ranking their chances from the Colorado Rockies to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

30. Colorado Rockies
29. Chicago White Sox
28. Washington Nationals
27. Los Angeles Angels
26. Miami Marlins
25. St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball’s rich history offers many memorable quotes.

We begin our look at all 30 teams with one from Humphrey Bogart, the legendary actor who had this to say about the game. Or, at least attending a game.

A hotdog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.”

It might be a long season for these six teams, but still, their fans will get to sit in the sun and enjoy those dogs, at least a few times this season.

24. Minnesota Twins
23. Tampa Bay Rays
22. Athletics
21. Arizona Diamondbacks

Each team in this tier could make a run at the playoffs if things break their way. For the Twins, if they can get a healthy Byron Buxton for 162 games, the lineup builds from there. The Rays get to move back home and could put up some impressive numbers in that park, particularly Junior Caminero. The young talent on the Athletics roster could surprise this season, particularly since they get to play their home games in Sutter Health Park again this year, which could lead to massive numbers for Nick Kurtz.

The Diamondbacks need pitching help, but Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo form a rather potent trio.

That’s right, we are putting the Pittsburgh Pirates into a tier of their own.

The Pirates might be the most fascinating team in baseball. In Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh has a bonafide ace. While the Pirates had arguably — or inarguably — the worst offense in baseball a season ago, they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn in the offseason which should bolster production. And waiting in the wings? Two rising stars in Jhostynxon Garcia and Konnor Griffin.

In fact, other analysts have the Pirates pegged for a massive step forward. MLB.com contributor Travis Sawchik believes Pittsburgh will score 150+ more runs this season than in 2025, while FanGraphs has Pittsburgh slated for 136 more runs.

That kind of improvement in production could see the Pirates finish with a winning record for the first time in a decade, and reach the playoffs as well. In fact, FanGraphs has Pittsburgh finishing at 82-80, making a playoff berth still a longshot, but a possibility.

Something Pirates fans have not seen in a long time.

19. Cleveland Guardians
18. San Francisco Giants
17. Kansas City Royals
16. Cincinnati Reds
15. San Diego Padres
14. Texas Rangers
13. Houston Astros
12. Baltimore Orioles
11. Detroit Tigers
10. Milwaukee Brewers

These are all teams that should make a playoff push this season, and at least be in the list of “buyers” come MLB trade deadline time.

Leading the way are the Detroit Tigers, led by ace Tarik Skubal, who is seeking his third-straight Cy Young Award. Detroit also added workhorse Framber Valdez, and they sport a bullpen that should earn them some wins over the course of the season. The Orioles are another fun team to watch in this tier, as Baltimore loaded up in the offseason with names such as Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, and Andrew Kittredge. There is still a sense around the Inner Harbor that the Orioles need to add a true ace at the deadline, but a sense of urgency has finally settled in around this organization.

Then there are the Brewers, who finished with the best record in baseball a year ago.

National League Contenders

9. Atlanta Braves
8. Chicago Cubs
7. Philadelphia Phillies

Here are three teams that should not be satisfied with getting in, but should be thinking about winning the league.

The Atlanta Braves are poised for a full year with a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., on a roster with talent beyond the star outfielder. The Chicago Cubs have a roster filled with young talent and added Alex Bregman in the offseason. Then there are the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won 90 games in each of the past four seasons, look to have a rotation built to win in the fall and into the playoffs, and could have their next big star in Justin Crawford, who made the Opening Day roster.

American League Contenders

6. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Seattle Mariners

Red Sox fans frustrated by the organization missing out on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso — and seeing Alex Bregman leave town for Chicago — soothed their nerves by watching Roman Anthony belt bombs in the World Baseball Classic. But can this offense hit enough to make a deep run in the fall?

Toronto also saw a key departure, with homegrown star Bo Bichette leaving for the New York Mets. But the Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, adding those players to a team that was just a few feet away from perhaps winning a World Series. Of course, the news that. Trey Yesavage is starting the year on the IL (with no timetable on Shane Bieber as well) is not the best way to begin a season.

As for the Mariners, who pushed the Blue Jays to Game 7 in the ALCS, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez are back. And it is just a matter of time until top prospect Colt Emerson joins them.

3. New York Mets
2. New York Yankees

Now we get to talk about the two teams in New York.

The Mets made the big splash ahead of 2025, inking Juan Soto to a record-breaking deal in December of 2024. While his slow start changed the narrative a bit, Soto still finished the year with 43 home runs and a slash line of .263/.396/.525.

But when the playoffs began, that expensive roster was watching from home.

That led to even more additions, as the Mets added Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, and Devin Williams. While Pete Alonso is now in Baltimore, this is a potent lineup given the additions around Soto and Francisco Lindor. And with Kodai Senga looking strong so far this spring, expectations should be high in Queens.

As for the Yankees, this was a rather unconventional offseason for Brian Cashman and company. Rather than make big moves of his own, Cashman tinkered only marginally with a roster that won 93 games a year ago. Getting both. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon back should help as well, and given the talent already in the building, you can understand Cashman’s approach.

Two consecutive titles, a drive for a third, the best player on the planet, and the highest payroll in the game?

Yes, until we see reason to stop believing, the Los Angeles Dodgers are your favorites for another World Series.

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Deadspin | Ducks trade Mason McTavish to Blues for 2 first-rounders  Mar 30, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish (23) warms up before the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Griffin Hooper-Imagn Images   The Anaheim Ducks acquired the No. 15 and 29 overall picks in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft on Friday night by trading center Mason McTavish to the St. Louis Blues.  The Blues parted with both first-rounders — originally belonging to the Detroit Red Wings and Colorado Avalanche, respectively — to add the 23-year-old McTavish, coming off his fourth full season in the NHL.  The third overall pick by Anaheim in the 2021 draft, McTavish had 17 goals and 24 assists in 75 games for the Ducks in 2025-26. Across 304 career games, he has amassed 181 points (77 goals, 104 assists) and 212 penalty minutes.   The Ducks used the 15th overall pick on forward Nikita Klepov, a Russian-American prospect from the Saginaw Spirit who was named Rookie of the Year in the Ontario Hockey League this past season.  –Field Level Media   #Deadspin #Ducks #trade #Mason #McTavish #Blues #firstroundersMar 30, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish (23) warms up before the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Griffin Hooper-Imagn Images

The Anaheim Ducks acquired the No. 15 and 29 overall picks in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft on Friday night by trading center Mason McTavish to the St. Louis Blues.

The Blues parted with both first-rounders — originally belonging to the Detroit Red Wings and Colorado Avalanche, respectively — to add the 23-year-old McTavish, coming off his fourth full season in the NHL.


The third overall pick by Anaheim in the 2021 draft, McTavish had 17 goals and 24 assists in 75 games for the Ducks in 2025-26. Across 304 career games, he has amassed 181 points (77 goals, 104 assists) and 212 penalty minutes.

The Ducks used the 15th overall pick on forward Nikita Klepov, a Russian-American prospect from the Saginaw Spirit who was named Rookie of the Year in the Ontario Hockey League this past season.

–Field Level Media

#Deadspin #Ducks #trade #Mason #McTavish #Blues #firstrounders">Deadspin | Ducks trade Mason McTavish to Blues for 2 first-rounders  Mar 30, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish (23) warms up before the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Griffin Hooper-Imagn Images   The Anaheim Ducks acquired the No. 15 and 29 overall picks in the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft on Friday night by trading center Mason McTavish to the St. Louis Blues.  The Blues parted with both first-rounders — originally belonging to the Detroit Red Wings and Colorado Avalanche, respectively — to add the 23-year-old McTavish, coming off his fourth full season in the NHL.  The third overall pick by Anaheim in the 2021 draft, McTavish had 17 goals and 24 assists in 75 games for the Ducks in 2025-26. Across 304 career games, he has amassed 181 points (77 goals, 104 assists) and 212 penalty minutes.   The Ducks used the 15th overall pick on forward Nikita Klepov, a Russian-American prospect from the Saginaw Spirit who was named Rookie of the Year in the Ontario Hockey League this past season.  –Field Level Media   #Deadspin #Ducks #trade #Mason #McTavish #Blues #firstrounders

For a brief moment, it looked as if Iran had snatched a dramatic stoppage time winner against Egypt to secure their first ever berth in the FIFA World Cup knockout round. Iranian centerback Shoja Khalilzadeh pounced on a rebound off a free kick, with Egyptian goalkeeper Mostafa Shobier out of his goal and in a mad scramble after saving an earlier shot in the sequence.

Following a lengthy VAR review, the goal was ruled out for offside, much to the disbelief and dismay of Iranian players and supporters and reprieve for the Egyptians inside Seattle Stadium.

On the surface, this looks like a blown call given Khalilzadeh (No. 4) was clearly behind Egyptian defender Yassir Ibrahim (No. 2) at the top of the screen:

But when VAR overturned the goal, the line drawn was along Khalilzadeh and Hamza Abdelkarim (No. 9).

This may seem like a massive oversight, but this is actually the correct application of the offside law.

The second-last opponent, explained

Based on the laws of the game, as maintained and governed by the International Football Association Board (IFAB), Khalilzadeh is offside even though he’s not beyond the last defender. That’s because this is one of those rare times where there’s an offside call in which the goalkeeper is not the last person back.

A player is in an offside position if:

  • any part of the head, body or feet is in the opponents’ half (excluding the halfway line) and
  • any part of the head, body or feet is nearer to the opponents’ goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent

Since the Egyptian goalkeeper vacated his net, the last opponent was Ibrahim and the second-last opponent was Abdelkarim. Therefore, Khalilzadeh was marginally beyond Abdelkarim and consequently the goal was chalked off.

How the disallowed goal affects Iran, Egypt

Iran hit the crossbar shortly after the restart and the game finished 1-1, which sensationally shifted the Group G standings.

Instead of Iran finishing second behind Belgium and advancing to the Round of 32, they will have to wait for Saturday’s results to determine whether or not they’ll be in the knockout phase.

Egypt began Friday as Group G leaders, briefly dropped to third when the would-be winner by Iran was initially given, and ultimately finished in second. The Egyptians will play Australia on July 3 in Arlington.

How Iran can still qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout round

The good news for Iran is that they are sixth out of the 12 third-place finishers entering Saturday, so they would advance as things stand. Unfortunately for them, their position is tenuous given three teams can still overtake them. Iran will qualify if any of the following results occur:

  • Croatia lose to Ghana
  • Algeria vs. Austria does not end in a draw
  • DR Congo draw or lose to Uzbekistan

If Croatia draw or beat Ghana, Algeria and Austria draw, and DR Congo beat Uzbekistan, then Iran would be out of the World Cup, and the disallowed goal would go down as one of the most heartbreaking ways to exit the tournament.

#World #Cup #Irans #winning #goal #Egypt #disallowed #VAR">World Cup 2026: Why Iran’s winning goal vs. Egypt was disallowed by VAR  For a brief moment, it looked as if Iran had snatched a dramatic stoppage time winner against Egypt to secure their first ever berth in the FIFA World Cup knockout round. Iranian centerback Shoja Khalilzadeh pounced on a rebound off a free kick, with Egyptian goalkeeper Mostafa Shobier out of his goal and in a mad scramble after saving an earlier shot in the sequence.Following a lengthy VAR review, the goal was ruled out for offside, much to the disbelief and dismay of Iranian players and supporters and reprieve for the Egyptians inside Seattle Stadium.On the surface, this looks like a blown call given Khalilzadeh (No. 4) was clearly behind Egyptian defender Yassir Ibrahim (No. 2) at the top of the screen:But when VAR overturned the goal, the line drawn was along Khalilzadeh and Hamza Abdelkarim (No. 9).This may seem like a massive oversight, but this is actually the correct application of the offside law.The second-last opponent, explainedBased on the laws of the game, as maintained and governed by the International Football Association Board (IFAB), Khalilzadeh is offside even though he’s not beyond the last defender. That’s because this is one of those rare times where there’s an offside call in which the goalkeeper is not the last person back.”A player is in an offside position if:”any part of the head, body or feet is in the opponents’ half (excluding the halfway line) andany part of the head, body or feet is nearer to the opponents’ goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent”Since the Egyptian goalkeeper vacated his net, the last opponent was Ibrahim and the second-last opponent was Abdelkarim. Therefore, Khalilzadeh was marginally beyond Abdelkarim and consequently the goal was chalked off.How the disallowed goal affects Iran, EgyptIran hit the crossbar shortly after the restart and the game finished 1-1, which sensationally shifted the Group G standings.Instead of Iran finishing second behind Belgium and advancing to the Round of 32, they will have to wait for Saturday’s results to determine whether or not they’ll be in the knockout phase.Egypt began Friday as Group G leaders, briefly dropped to third when the would-be winner by Iran was initially given, and ultimately finished in second. The Egyptians will play Australia on July 3 in Arlington.How Iran can still qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout roundThe good news for Iran is that they are sixth out of the 12 third-place finishers entering Saturday, so they would advance as things stand. Unfortunately for them, their position is tenuous given three teams can still overtake them. Iran will qualify if any of the following results occur:Croatia lose to GhanaAlgeria vs. Austria does not end in a drawDR Congo draw or lose to UzbekistanIf Croatia draw or beat Ghana, Algeria and Austria draw, and DR Congo beat Uzbekistan, then Iran would be out of the World Cup, and the disallowed goal would go down as one of the most heartbreaking ways to exit the tournament.  #World #Cup #Irans #winning #goal #Egypt #disallowed #VAR

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