The Iran conflict has sent fuel prices soaring, with spikes as high as 101% in Myanmar and 35% in the U.S. The “Crude Oil all time high by April 30” market sits at 3.5% YES, up from 3% yesterday.

Market reaction

The escalation has crippled Gulf refineries and disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil passes. The April 30 contract shows modest interest but remains far from pricing in a full-blown price explosion. Volume over the last 24 hours is just $2,006 in USDC, and a $1,020 order could swing the odds by 5 points.

Why it matters

This is a refining bottleneck, not a simple supply disruption. Destroyed infrastructure, soaring insurance premiums, and rising freight costs are compounding the problem. The market’s current odds reflect trader skepticism that the situation will escalate enough to push crude past the $120/barrel mark by month’s end, or that any resolution will come fast enough to prevent it.

What to watch

Buying YES at 3.5¢ offers a potential 28.6x return, but that requires further major disruptions within the next week. The odds say traders currently view that as unlikely. Watch for OPEC+ announcements, moves from Trump or Iranian leadership, and any confirmation of prolonged Strait closures or additional refinery damage. Any of these could shift the contract sharply.

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