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NFC Championship Game: Analytics predicts who is going to the Super Bowl

NFC Championship Game: Analytics predicts who is going to the Super Bowl

While a majority of the NFL looks ahead to the NFL draft, players from the conference championship who are heading into NFL free agency, and the wild head coach carousel, the Seattle Seahawks prepare to host NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, in the NFC Championship game. With Mike McDaniel and QB Fernando Mendoza (likely) joining the AFC West this offseason, the West has a strong claim to running the NFL for years to come, starting with this weekend’s NFC title game.

Seattle returning to the top of the conference in HC Mike Macdonald’s second season, after moving on from Pete Carroll, who helped resurrect the team, is impressive. That QB Sam Darnold was able to overcome his NFL draft bust label to be a big part of the Seahawks’ quick ascent is a bigger surprise. While Seattle had the best defense in the NFL this year, by a decent margin, Darnold’s offense was a Top 10 unit as well.

While the Los Angeles offense gets most of the attention, the Rams defense has been a top five level group throughout the regular season as well. Byron Young, Jared Verse, and Kobie Turner create pressure at a high level at the line of scrimmage to help a talented but less famous group of defenders behind them.

With the teams having competed in multiple postseason games, for the championship round, we will be using FTN’s data for both the regular season and playoffs combined.

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Edge: Seahawks – Talk about an exciting matchup and, perhaps, “the real Super Bowl” for the 2025 NFL season. The first and second-ranked overall teams with the best offense versus the best defense facing off for the chance to head to the big game have all the makings of an all-time great matchup. FTN’s DVOA data shows a decent gap in Total DVOA between Seattle (45.1%) and Los Angeles (35.9%), but shows the gap between the two AFC West rivals and the rest of the league, with no other team having more than 22%. The betting odds, with the Seahawks listed at -2.5, agree with the analytics data.

DVOA provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers, or while making daily fantasy decisions. We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not FTN’s DVOA was able to predict who is headed to the Super Bowl this year.

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#NFC #Championship #Game #Analytics #predicts #Super #Bowl

Deadspin | Playoff-bound Mammoth seek winning touch against Jets  Apr 4, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Utah Mammoth right wing Clayton Keller (9) celebrates his empty net goal with team mate, center Alexander Kerfoot (15) during the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Simon Fearn-Imagn Images   The Utah Mammoth will try to get back in the win column when they host the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night.  This is the third and final game between these Central Division rivals this season. The Mammoth won the two previous meetings, 3-2 in Winnipeg on Oct. 26 and 4-3 on Dec. 21 in Salt Lake City.  Utah (42-32-6, 90 points) sits in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference playoff race. Leading scorer Clayton Keller (85 points, including a team-high 59 assists) and company are also looking to end a two-game losing skid.   After winning five straight games and punching their ticket to the postseason, the Mammoth fell 4-1 at home to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. They then struggled their last time out to find the back of the net, falling 4-1 to the host Calgary Flames on Sunday.  “I didn’t like the way we approached our game in the sense that we had to be ready to grind, get inside, and to work extremely hard for every inch,” Mammoth coach Andre Tourigny said after the loss to the Flames. “I don’t think our emotion, our focus was at the right place, and it showed everywhere from everybody. I’m not blaming anybody. Coaches, players, we need to be better. We need to grind.”  Utah defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, who was traded by the Flames to the Mammoth on March 4, said he knows from experience how hard it is for opponents to play in the Flames’ home arena.   “Both teams had a tough schedule coming into this one; whoever was the more prepared team in that first period had a really good chance to win this game,” Weegar said. “We didn’t come out prepared and connected and ready to compete.”   Meanwhile, the Jets (35-33-12, 82 points) have had their three-year playoff run snapped after they were mathematically eliminated from the postseason race on Monday night. They also enter Tuesday’s game on a two-game skid, which started with a 7-1 home loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.  “The message is, I think, no one wants to lose like that,” Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey said after the loss to Philadelphia. “It was embarrassing in our own arena. But at the same time, what are we going to do, sit around and cry about it?   “We have three games left and a huge back-to-back, a tough road trip,” he continued. “Turn the page, fly there tomorrow, and get yourself ready to go, and let’s bring it to the next game. The score hurts right now, embarrassing right now as we drive home, we have to turn the page and keep pushing like we have been.”  Now, the Jets visit the Mammoth on the tail end of a back-to-back that started with a 6-2 loss to the playoff-bound Vegas Golden Knights on Monday.  In that game, the Golden Knights held the Jets off the scoreboard completely until the final frame, when Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi found the back of the net. Connor Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 38 shots after he was pulled in his previous start for allowing five goals on 20 shots against the Flyers.  –Field Level Media   #Deadspin #Playoffbound #Mammoth #seek #winning #touch #JetsApr 4, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Utah Mammoth right wing Clayton Keller (9) celebrates his empty net goal with team mate, center Alexander Kerfoot (15) during the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Simon Fearn-Imagn Images

The Utah Mammoth will try to get back in the win column when they host the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night.

This is the third and final game between these Central Division rivals this season. The Mammoth won the two previous meetings, 3-2 in Winnipeg on Oct. 26 and 4-3 on Dec. 21 in Salt Lake City.

Utah (42-32-6, 90 points) sits in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference playoff race. Leading scorer Clayton Keller (85 points, including a team-high 59 assists) and company are also looking to end a two-game losing skid.

After winning five straight games and punching their ticket to the postseason, the Mammoth fell 4-1 at home to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. They then struggled their last time out to find the back of the net, falling 4-1 to the host Calgary Flames on Sunday.

“I didn’t like the way we approached our game in the sense that we had to be ready to grind, get inside, and to work extremely hard for every inch,” Mammoth coach Andre Tourigny said after the loss to the Flames. “I don’t think our emotion, our focus was at the right place, and it showed everywhere from everybody. I’m not blaming anybody. Coaches, players, we need to be better. We need to grind.”

Utah defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, who was traded by the Flames to the Mammoth on March 4, said he knows from experience how hard it is for opponents to play in the Flames’ home arena.


“Both teams had a tough schedule coming into this one; whoever was the more prepared team in that first period had a really good chance to win this game,” Weegar said. “We didn’t come out prepared and connected and ready to compete.”

Meanwhile, the Jets (35-33-12, 82 points) have had their three-year playoff run snapped after they were mathematically eliminated from the postseason race on Monday night. They also enter Tuesday’s game on a two-game skid, which started with a 7-1 home loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.

“The message is, I think, no one wants to lose like that,” Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey said after the loss to Philadelphia. “It was embarrassing in our own arena. But at the same time, what are we going to do, sit around and cry about it?

“We have three games left and a huge back-to-back, a tough road trip,” he continued. “Turn the page, fly there tomorrow, and get yourself ready to go, and let’s bring it to the next game. The score hurts right now, embarrassing right now as we drive home, we have to turn the page and keep pushing like we have been.”

Now, the Jets visit the Mammoth on the tail end of a back-to-back that started with a 6-2 loss to the playoff-bound Vegas Golden Knights on Monday.

In that game, the Golden Knights held the Jets off the scoreboard completely until the final frame, when Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi found the back of the net. Connor Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 38 shots after he was pulled in his previous start for allowing five goals on 20 shots against the Flyers.

–Field Level Media

#Deadspin #Playoffbound #Mammoth #seek #winning #touch #Jets">Deadspin | Playoff-bound Mammoth seek winning touch against Jets  Apr 4, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Utah Mammoth right wing Clayton Keller (9) celebrates his empty net goal with team mate, center Alexander Kerfoot (15) during the third period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Simon Fearn-Imagn Images   The Utah Mammoth will try to get back in the win column when they host the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday night.  This is the third and final game between these Central Division rivals this season. The Mammoth won the two previous meetings, 3-2 in Winnipeg on Oct. 26 and 4-3 on Dec. 21 in Salt Lake City.  Utah (42-32-6, 90 points) sits in the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference playoff race. Leading scorer Clayton Keller (85 points, including a team-high 59 assists) and company are also looking to end a two-game losing skid.   After winning five straight games and punching their ticket to the postseason, the Mammoth fell 4-1 at home to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. They then struggled their last time out to find the back of the net, falling 4-1 to the host Calgary Flames on Sunday.  “I didn’t like the way we approached our game in the sense that we had to be ready to grind, get inside, and to work extremely hard for every inch,” Mammoth coach Andre Tourigny said after the loss to the Flames. “I don’t think our emotion, our focus was at the right place, and it showed everywhere from everybody. I’m not blaming anybody. Coaches, players, we need to be better. We need to grind.”  Utah defenseman MacKenzie Weegar, who was traded by the Flames to the Mammoth on March 4, said he knows from experience how hard it is for opponents to play in the Flames’ home arena.   “Both teams had a tough schedule coming into this one; whoever was the more prepared team in that first period had a really good chance to win this game,” Weegar said. “We didn’t come out prepared and connected and ready to compete.”   Meanwhile, the Jets (35-33-12, 82 points) have had their three-year playoff run snapped after they were mathematically eliminated from the postseason race on Monday night. They also enter Tuesday’s game on a two-game skid, which started with a 7-1 home loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday.  “The message is, I think, no one wants to lose like that,” Jets defenseman Josh Morrissey said after the loss to Philadelphia. “It was embarrassing in our own arena. But at the same time, what are we going to do, sit around and cry about it?   “We have three games left and a huge back-to-back, a tough road trip,” he continued. “Turn the page, fly there tomorrow, and get yourself ready to go, and let’s bring it to the next game. The score hurts right now, embarrassing right now as we drive home, we have to turn the page and keep pushing like we have been.”  Now, the Jets visit the Mammoth on the tail end of a back-to-back that started with a 6-2 loss to the playoff-bound Vegas Golden Knights on Monday.  In that game, the Golden Knights held the Jets off the scoreboard completely until the final frame, when Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi found the back of the net. Connor Hellebuyck allowed six goals on 38 shots after he was pulled in his previous start for allowing five goals on 20 shots against the Flyers.  –Field Level Media   #Deadspin #Playoffbound #Mammoth #seek #winning #touch #Jets

Sure, anyone can win the Stanley Cup so long as they make the playoffs — but is that really true? At this point we know there are contenders and pretenders in every postseason, and while it’s really cool to see Sidney Crosby in playoff hockey again, nobody is giving the Penguins a legitimate chance to raise the cup.

Today we look at the seven teams best poised to actually take it all home when the dust settles, from the clear favorites to the long shots.

No. 1: Colorado Avalanche

The Avs have been the best team in hockey this year, and it’s not particularly close. Anchored by Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar, Colorado found a new gear in 2025-26 with the addition of Martin Necas. While Necas arrived last season as part of the Mikko Rantanen trade with Carolina, he really found his footing this season and meshed with the team.

Boasting a ludicrous +94 goal differential this season, nobody can match Colorado when it comes to the strength of their top two lines. The only risk for this team making a run to the cup is the severity of Cale Makar’s upper body injury. We know he’s going to miss some playoff time, and if that lingers it could have a huge effect on this team’s chances.

Key strength: Superstar strength out of their first two skating lines, as well as top line defense
Key weakness: Cale Makar is carrying an injury into the playoffs, and that could lead to a slow start

No. 2: Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes are more or less the same team that have been a playoff staple for the last eight years. Rod Brind’Amour’s brand of team-focused, no-superstar hockey does a phenomenal job of leading the Canes to amazing regular season results, but tends to falter in the playoffs where individual performance reigns supreme.

Carolina will hope that the free agent addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is the missing piece they needed, and after a slow start Ehlers became everything the team hoped for with 68 points this season. The 2025-26 iteration of the Hurricanes took another offensive step forward with Seth Jarvis taking the next step, and Jackson Blake emerging as a future star — but this team has the worst goaltending of anyone in the playoffs this year, which could be mammoth problem.

Key strength: Four line skating depth with little drop off between lines
Key weakness: Both Freddie Anderson and Brandon Bussi are very shaky in net

The Stars are a very, very good hockey team that too often masquerades as an elite one. That might seem unfair, but it’s tough to deny that the Stars failed to live up to expectations this season despite finishing with over 100 points on the year.

This was a team who were a preseason favorite to win the west, but Mikko Rantanen isn’t nearly as potent a scorer without McKinnon to set him up, and the Stars’ core weakness is a lack of playmaking centers. There’s an undeniable amount of firepower in Dallas, but running the game through the wings hasn’t traditionally been a recipe for success in the postseason.

Key strength: Streaky team who can dominate games when everything clicks
Key weakness: Things don’t click often enough for this team to be consistent

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
NHLI via Getty Images

No. 4: Montreal Canadiens

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the NHL is a better place when the Montreal Canadiens are in the playoffs. This new generation of the Habs are brimming with young talent poised to take the next step forward. When you look at this roster you see a team that’s already over-performing expectations, and none of their key players have hit their prime yet.

Entering the playoffs Montreal has one of the strongest home ice advantages in the playoffs, with the Bell Centre being one of the most formidable places to play at the best of times. That edge isn’t likely to be quite enough to mitigate the defensive issues the Candiens are yet to resolve, or make it through with mid-tier goaltending.

Key strength: Goal-scoring potential of Cole Caulfield and Juraj Slafkovsky
Key weakness: Too much youth without enough veteran leadership to make a deep run

The Minnesota Wild understood the assignment in 2025-26. After signing Kirill Kaprizov to a mammoth extension they had to pour more gas on the fire, and did just that by being the biggest in-season buyers by adding one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Quinn Hughes, then bolstering their depth with numerous smaller deals at the deadline.

Hughes has helped transform this team from a back-end playoff hopeful to a legitimate contender. The core issue is that when it comes to scoring Minnesota is wholly reliant on Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to find the net, with the rest of the team lagging far, far behind.

Key strength: Three brilliant playmakers in Kaprizov, Boldy, and Hughes
Key weakness: They’re in the west, which is dominated by the Avs

No. 6: Tampa Bay Lightning

When you have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net there’s always going to be a chance to win games, and the Lightning showed that in 2025-26 by allowing just 222 goals on the year. The problem comes at the other end, where regression from both Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel has put even more pressure on Nikita Kucherov to carry the load for Tampa Bay.

This version of the Lightning is really good, but hasn’t changed dramatically enough to see where they succeed where they’ve failed in the past. Corey Perry is too old to be a difference maker at this point, and the team overpaid to get him at the deadline. As such it feels like the Lightning are headed back to hit the same brick wall. Still, there’s always a chance they can get hot and make a deep run as they have in the past.

Key strength: Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel are two of the best scoring forwards in the playoffs
Key weakness: This looks too much like the same Lightning team that lost in the first round of 2024-25

I hate putting the best feel-good story in hockey so low on the list, but it’s a credit to Buffalo that they make the contenders list at all. The Sabres went from finishing 7th in the Atlantic Conference to 1st this season, as they went from a team who seemed poised pre-season to be sellers and rebuilders at the deadline, to now being a legitimate force.

This team has solid depth, but lacks the high-end talent to really compete just quite yet. The power play unit for Buffalo isn’s fully developed, and once you get past Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch the forwards fall off a cliff.

Key strength: Devil-may-care freedom belief they can beat anyone
Key weakness: Not enough depth to compete just yet

#NHL #teams #win #Stanley #Cup #ranked #championship #chances">7 NHL teams who can actually win 2026 Stanley Cup, ranked by their championship chances  Sure, anyone can win the Stanley Cup so long as they make the playoffs — but is that really true? At this point we know there are contenders and pretenders in every postseason, and while it’s really cool to see Sidney Crosby in playoff hockey again, nobody is giving the Penguins a legitimate chance to raise the cup.Today we look at the seven teams best poised to actually take it all home when the dust settles, from the clear favorites to the long shots.No. 1: Colorado AvalancheThe Avs have been the best team in hockey this year, and it’s not particularly close. Anchored by Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar, Colorado found a new gear in 2025-26 with the addition of Martin Necas. While Necas arrived last season as part of the Mikko Rantanen trade with Carolina, he really found his footing this season and meshed with the team.Boasting a ludicrous +94 goal differential this season, nobody can match Colorado when it comes to the strength of their top two lines. The only risk for this team making a run to the cup is the severity of Cale Makar’s upper body injury. We know he’s going to miss some playoff time, and if that lingers it could have a huge effect on this team’s chances.Key strength: Superstar strength out of their first two skating lines, as well as top line defenseKey weakness: Cale Makar is carrying an injury into the playoffs, and that could lead to a slow startNo. 2: Carolina HurricanesThe Carolina Hurricanes are more or less the same team that have been a playoff staple for the last eight years. Rod Brind’Amour’s brand of team-focused, no-superstar hockey does a phenomenal job of leading the Canes to amazing regular season results, but tends to falter in the playoffs where individual performance reigns supreme.Carolina will hope that the free agent addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is the missing piece they needed, and after a slow start Ehlers became everything the team hoped for with 68 points this season. The 2025-26 iteration of the Hurricanes took another offensive step forward with Seth Jarvis taking the next step, and Jackson Blake emerging as a future star — but this team has the worst goaltending of anyone in the playoffs this year, which could be mammoth problem.Key strength: Four line skating depth with little drop off between linesKey weakness: Both Freddie Anderson and Brandon Bussi are very shaky in netThe Stars are a very, very good hockey team that too often masquerades as an elite one. That might seem unfair, but it’s tough to deny that the Stars failed to live up to expectations this season despite finishing with over 100 points on the year.This was a team who were a preseason favorite to win the west, but Mikko Rantanen isn’t nearly as potent a scorer without McKinnon to set him up, and the Stars’ core weakness is a lack of playmaking centers. There’s an undeniable amount of firepower in Dallas, but running the game through the wings hasn’t traditionally been a recipe for success in the postseason.Key strength: Streaky team who can dominate games when everything clicksKey weakness: Things don’t click often enough for this team to be consistentPHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images) NHLI via Getty ImagesNo. 4: Montreal CanadiensLove ‘em or hate ‘em, the NHL is a better place when the Montreal Canadiens are in the playoffs. This new generation of the Habs are brimming with young talent poised to take the next step forward. When you look at this roster you see a team that’s already over-performing expectations, and none of their key players have hit their prime yet.Entering the playoffs Montreal has one of the strongest home ice advantages in the playoffs, with the Bell Centre being one of the most formidable places to play at the best of times. That edge isn’t likely to be quite enough to mitigate the defensive issues the Candiens are yet to resolve, or make it through with mid-tier goaltending.Key strength: Goal-scoring potential of Cole Caulfield and Juraj SlafkovskyKey weakness: Too much youth without enough veteran leadership to make a deep runThe Minnesota Wild understood the assignment in 2025-26. After signing Kirill Kaprizov to a mammoth extension they had to pour more gas on the fire, and did just that by being the biggest in-season buyers by adding one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Quinn Hughes, then bolstering their depth with numerous smaller deals at the deadline.Hughes has helped transform this team from a back-end playoff hopeful to a legitimate contender. The core issue is that when it comes to scoring Minnesota is wholly reliant on Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to find the net, with the rest of the team lagging far, far behind.Key strength: Three brilliant playmakers in Kaprizov, Boldy, and HughesKey weakness: They’re in the west, which is dominated by the AvsNo. 6: Tampa Bay LightningWhen you have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net there’s always going to be a chance to win games, and the Lightning showed that in 2025-26 by allowing just 222 goals on the year. The problem comes at the other end, where regression from both Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel has put even more pressure on Nikita Kucherov to carry the load for Tampa Bay.This version of the Lightning is really good, but hasn’t changed dramatically enough to see where they succeed where they’ve failed in the past. Corey Perry is too old to be a difference maker at this point, and the team overpaid to get him at the deadline. As such it feels like the Lightning are headed back to hit the same brick wall. Still, there’s always a chance they can get hot and make a deep run as they have in the past.Key strength: Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel are two of the best scoring forwards in the playoffsKey weakness: This looks too much like the same Lightning team that lost in the first round of 2024-25I hate putting the best feel-good story in hockey so low on the list, but it’s a credit to Buffalo that they make the contenders list at all. The Sabres went from finishing 7th in the Atlantic Conference to 1st this season, as they went from a team who seemed poised pre-season to be sellers and rebuilders at the deadline, to now being a legitimate force.This team has solid depth, but lacks the high-end talent to really compete just quite yet. The power play unit for Buffalo isn’s fully developed, and once you get past Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch the forwards fall off a cliff.Key strength: Devil-may-care freedom belief they can beat anyoneKey weakness: Not enough depth to compete just yet  #NHL #teams #win #Stanley #Cup #ranked #championship #chances

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
NHLI via Getty Images

No. 4: Montreal Canadiens

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the NHL is a better place when the Montreal Canadiens are in the playoffs. This new generation of the Habs are brimming with young talent poised to take the next step forward. When you look at this roster you see a team that’s already over-performing expectations, and none of their key players have hit their prime yet.

Entering the playoffs Montreal has one of the strongest home ice advantages in the playoffs, with the Bell Centre being one of the most formidable places to play at the best of times. That edge isn’t likely to be quite enough to mitigate the defensive issues the Candiens are yet to resolve, or make it through with mid-tier goaltending.

Key strength: Goal-scoring potential of Cole Caulfield and Juraj Slafkovsky
Key weakness: Too much youth without enough veteran leadership to make a deep run

The Minnesota Wild understood the assignment in 2025-26. After signing Kirill Kaprizov to a mammoth extension they had to pour more gas on the fire, and did just that by being the biggest in-season buyers by adding one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Quinn Hughes, then bolstering their depth with numerous smaller deals at the deadline.

Hughes has helped transform this team from a back-end playoff hopeful to a legitimate contender. The core issue is that when it comes to scoring Minnesota is wholly reliant on Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to find the net, with the rest of the team lagging far, far behind.

Key strength: Three brilliant playmakers in Kaprizov, Boldy, and Hughes
Key weakness: They’re in the west, which is dominated by the Avs

No. 6: Tampa Bay Lightning

When you have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net there’s always going to be a chance to win games, and the Lightning showed that in 2025-26 by allowing just 222 goals on the year. The problem comes at the other end, where regression from both Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel has put even more pressure on Nikita Kucherov to carry the load for Tampa Bay.

This version of the Lightning is really good, but hasn’t changed dramatically enough to see where they succeed where they’ve failed in the past. Corey Perry is too old to be a difference maker at this point, and the team overpaid to get him at the deadline. As such it feels like the Lightning are headed back to hit the same brick wall. Still, there’s always a chance they can get hot and make a deep run as they have in the past.

Key strength: Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel are two of the best scoring forwards in the playoffs
Key weakness: This looks too much like the same Lightning team that lost in the first round of 2024-25

I hate putting the best feel-good story in hockey so low on the list, but it’s a credit to Buffalo that they make the contenders list at all. The Sabres went from finishing 7th in the Atlantic Conference to 1st this season, as they went from a team who seemed poised pre-season to be sellers and rebuilders at the deadline, to now being a legitimate force.

This team has solid depth, but lacks the high-end talent to really compete just quite yet. The power play unit for Buffalo isn’s fully developed, and once you get past Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch the forwards fall off a cliff.

Key strength: Devil-may-care freedom belief they can beat anyone
Key weakness: Not enough depth to compete just yet

#NHL #teams #win #Stanley #Cup #ranked #championship #chances">7 NHL teams who can actually win 2026 Stanley Cup, ranked by their championship chances

Sure, anyone can win the Stanley Cup so long as they make the playoffs — but is that really true? At this point we know there are contenders and pretenders in every postseason, and while it’s really cool to see Sidney Crosby in playoff hockey again, nobody is giving the Penguins a legitimate chance to raise the cup.

Today we look at the seven teams best poised to actually take it all home when the dust settles, from the clear favorites to the long shots.

No. 1: Colorado Avalanche

The Avs have been the best team in hockey this year, and it’s not particularly close. Anchored by Nathan McKinnon and Cale Makar, Colorado found a new gear in 2025-26 with the addition of Martin Necas. While Necas arrived last season as part of the Mikko Rantanen trade with Carolina, he really found his footing this season and meshed with the team.

Boasting a ludicrous +94 goal differential this season, nobody can match Colorado when it comes to the strength of their top two lines. The only risk for this team making a run to the cup is the severity of Cale Makar’s upper body injury. We know he’s going to miss some playoff time, and if that lingers it could have a huge effect on this team’s chances.

Key strength: Superstar strength out of their first two skating lines, as well as top line defense
Key weakness: Cale Makar is carrying an injury into the playoffs, and that could lead to a slow start

No. 2: Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes are more or less the same team that have been a playoff staple for the last eight years. Rod Brind’Amour’s brand of team-focused, no-superstar hockey does a phenomenal job of leading the Canes to amazing regular season results, but tends to falter in the playoffs where individual performance reigns supreme.

Carolina will hope that the free agent addition of Nikolaj Ehlers is the missing piece they needed, and after a slow start Ehlers became everything the team hoped for with 68 points this season. The 2025-26 iteration of the Hurricanes took another offensive step forward with Seth Jarvis taking the next step, and Jackson Blake emerging as a future star — but this team has the worst goaltending of anyone in the playoffs this year, which could be mammoth problem.

Key strength: Four line skating depth with little drop off between lines
Key weakness: Both Freddie Anderson and Brandon Bussi are very shaky in net

The Stars are a very, very good hockey team that too often masquerades as an elite one. That might seem unfair, but it’s tough to deny that the Stars failed to live up to expectations this season despite finishing with over 100 points on the year.

This was a team who were a preseason favorite to win the west, but Mikko Rantanen isn’t nearly as potent a scorer without McKinnon to set him up, and the Stars’ core weakness is a lack of playmaking centers. There’s an undeniable amount of firepower in Dallas, but running the game through the wings hasn’t traditionally been a recipe for success in the postseason.

Key strength: Streaky team who can dominate games when everything clicks
Key weakness: Things don’t click often enough for this team to be consistent

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA – OCTOBER 27: Cole Caulfield #13 of the Montreal Canadiens skates the puck against the Philadelphia Flyers at the Wells Fargo Center on October 27, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
NHLI via Getty Images

No. 4: Montreal Canadiens

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the NHL is a better place when the Montreal Canadiens are in the playoffs. This new generation of the Habs are brimming with young talent poised to take the next step forward. When you look at this roster you see a team that’s already over-performing expectations, and none of their key players have hit their prime yet.

Entering the playoffs Montreal has one of the strongest home ice advantages in the playoffs, with the Bell Centre being one of the most formidable places to play at the best of times. That edge isn’t likely to be quite enough to mitigate the defensive issues the Candiens are yet to resolve, or make it through with mid-tier goaltending.

Key strength: Goal-scoring potential of Cole Caulfield and Juraj Slafkovsky
Key weakness: Too much youth without enough veteran leadership to make a deep run

The Minnesota Wild understood the assignment in 2025-26. After signing Kirill Kaprizov to a mammoth extension they had to pour more gas on the fire, and did just that by being the biggest in-season buyers by adding one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Quinn Hughes, then bolstering their depth with numerous smaller deals at the deadline.

Hughes has helped transform this team from a back-end playoff hopeful to a legitimate contender. The core issue is that when it comes to scoring Minnesota is wholly reliant on Kaprizov and Matt Boldy to find the net, with the rest of the team lagging far, far behind.

Key strength: Three brilliant playmakers in Kaprizov, Boldy, and Hughes
Key weakness: They’re in the west, which is dominated by the Avs

No. 6: Tampa Bay Lightning

When you have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net there’s always going to be a chance to win games, and the Lightning showed that in 2025-26 by allowing just 222 goals on the year. The problem comes at the other end, where regression from both Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel has put even more pressure on Nikita Kucherov to carry the load for Tampa Bay.

This version of the Lightning is really good, but hasn’t changed dramatically enough to see where they succeed where they’ve failed in the past. Corey Perry is too old to be a difference maker at this point, and the team overpaid to get him at the deadline. As such it feels like the Lightning are headed back to hit the same brick wall. Still, there’s always a chance they can get hot and make a deep run as they have in the past.

Key strength: Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel are two of the best scoring forwards in the playoffs
Key weakness: This looks too much like the same Lightning team that lost in the first round of 2024-25

I hate putting the best feel-good story in hockey so low on the list, but it’s a credit to Buffalo that they make the contenders list at all. The Sabres went from finishing 7th in the Atlantic Conference to 1st this season, as they went from a team who seemed poised pre-season to be sellers and rebuilders at the deadline, to now being a legitimate force.

This team has solid depth, but lacks the high-end talent to really compete just quite yet. The power play unit for Buffalo isn’s fully developed, and once you get past Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch the forwards fall off a cliff.

Key strength: Devil-may-care freedom belief they can beat anyone
Key weakness: Not enough depth to compete just yet

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