Thomas Haugh was projected as a possible lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. ESPN ranked the 6’9 junior wing at No. 13 overall on its big board, which is historically the best gauge of how NBA executives and scouts are viewing a player in the draft process. SB Nation had Haugh at No. 21 overall in its post-March Madness mock draft, and that might have been his floor. Players this highly regarded are almost always turning pro. NIL has now changed that.

Haugh announced he’s returning to Florida for his senior season on Wednesday. It’s a stunning decision that positions the Gators as the likely preseason No. 1 in the polls and the favorite for the 2027 national championship. Highly-regarded teammate Alex Condon also announced he was returning to school, and fellow Gators big man Rueben Chinyelu is testing the draft process but did not enter the transfer portal. It feels more likely than not that Chinyelu will return to Gainesville alongside Haugh and Condon to reunite a key trio on Florida’s 2024 national championship team.

It’s not unprecedented for a projected lottery pick to return to school even before the NIL era. I remember writing about Miles Bridges and Robert Williams spurning the 2017 NBA Draft to return to Michigan State and Texas A&M respectively. Joakim Noah famously returned to Florida ahead of the 2006 NBA Draft, where he could have been the No. 1 overall pick. We’ve seen in football that NIL dollars are now big enough to keep even potential top-5 prospects in school for another year. Still, Haugh’s decision is a huge surprise. We haven’t had a player this highly touted bypass the NBA for a return to college in almost a decade.

It makes sense that Haugh had to get a huge NIL bag to come back to Florida, and reporter Sam Vecenie of The Athletic confirmed that’s the case:

Haugh is expected to be among the highest earners in college basketball next season, with sources familiar with the decision projecting that he’s in line to make around what he’d earn in his first two NBA seasons combined if he’d been drafted in the top 20 in this year’s draft

NIL payments for college athletes aren’t public, but if you follow these things closely enough the information is usually out there somewhere. AJ Dybantsa’s NIL payment from BYU was reported to be around $7 million. Caitlin Clark reportedly made more than $3 million as a senior at Iowa. No one knows what Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer made at Duke, but it was likely a lot of money.

To my knowledge, Dybantsa is the highest paid college basketball player ever, and it’s likely Haugh just surpassed him. CBS insider Matt Norlander speculated that Haugh will make at least $8 million at Florida next season based on Vecenie’s report.

“Florida is going to have the highest-paid player in all of college basketball this season, and rightfully so,” Norlander said.

Haugh is set to turn 23 years old on July 7. He would have been an old NBA rookie even if he entered the 2026 NBA Draft, and he’s going to be even older in 2027. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg told SB Nation that he returned to college a year ago in part because NBA scouts told him his advanced age didn’t matter. Lendeborg was considered more of a borderline first round pick a year ago, and he definitely improved his stock by winning the national championship with the Wolverines even if he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie. I had Lendeborg in the top-10 of my midseason board where Haugh was unranked. Some older prospects can still be worth a lottery pick, and Haugh’s situation will be fascinating in 2027.

The 2027 NBA Draft is considered much weaker than the 2026 version. That means Haugh shouldn’t fall too far, right? I’m not quite sold yet. Haugh seems to have nothing to gain by returning to Florida, where he’s already won a national championship and proven himself as a decent 3-and-D wing. If NBA scouts already considered him a lottery pick, he probably should have gone to the NBA, because I think it’s highly possible his stock isn’t that high next year even in a worse class.

There were some red flags in Haugh’s draft profile this past season. He posted a 1.8 percent steal rate in back-to-back seasons, which is well below the 2.5 percent threshold scouts like to see as a baseline for athleticism. He wasn’t a particularly strong rebounder on either end, posting a seven percent offensive rebound rate, and a 12.3 percent defensive rebound rate, which are just average numbers. His outside shooting wasn’t that good either with a 32.6 percent stroke from three-point range on 178 attempts. His rim finishing was solid at 62.1 percent with 57.5 percent of those being assisted, but those numbers certainly aren’t spectacular.

Florida is probably going to be really, really good, and Haugh will probably do well in his role. But unless he shows something new in his game like Lendeborg did, it’s possible scouts get another look at his skill set and decide he never should have been a lottery pick in the first place.

Thomas Haugh’s biggest risk in returning is about his second NBA contract

The real money in the NBA is in your second contract. If a player is good enough, it makes any NIL money or rookie scale NBA deal look like chump change.

By returning to Florida, Haugh will now be 28 years old by the time he’s ready to sign a second contract after his four-year rookie deal expires. That contract will take Haugh into his early 30s. Compare that with projected top-3 pick Cameron Boozer, who is four years younger than Haugh, and will only be 24 years old when he signs his second deal and really cashes in with huge NBA money. Teams will always think a young player has more upside. By your early 30s, most players are already starting to decline.

Haugh’s decision could work out well. Maybe he shoots it better and improves his rebounding, and maintains his stock as a lottery pick as Florida marches through the bracket for the second time in his college career. Maybe the NBA is underwhelmed by the incoming class of freshmen and decides it is worth it to swing on older players higher in the draft.

Age is the clearest defining line in sports, especially as it relates to upside. To me, Haugh should have turned pro if he was really going to be a top-15 pick. Yes, the NBA will always be there for him, but that doesn’t mean it will definitely value him the same way.

Either way, good for Haugh for following his heart and his bank account by deciding to stay in college. The NBA is an unforgiving league, and next season should feel like a joyride for the Gators based on their talent and experience … at least until the single-elimination postseason starts.

It’s wild to think Thomas Haugh will make $8+ million next year. That’s about what Tre Johnson made as a rookie after being the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. NIL dollars are overpowering NBA money, at least in the short term. Haugh cashed in at a historic level.