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Opinion – The Mearsheimer Logic Underlying Trump’s National Security Strategy

Opinion – The Mearsheimer Logic Underlying Trump’s National Security Strategy

The recently released Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) has upended what had been the decades-long consensus about American foreign policy. Most notable in it is the Trump Administration’s prioritization of the Western Hemisphere as an American security concern, its deemphasis on defending America’s traditional European allies, its identification of China as far more of a threat than Russia, and its determination not to be drawn into conflicts in the Middle East and Africa.

But while the 2025 Trump Administration National Security Strategy breaks with much of previous American foreign policy, the logic behind it is not something completely new. Even though the document makes no mention of him, the policy outlined in the NSS comports with what John Mearsheimer described in his influential book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, which was first published in 2001 and updated in 2014.

In his book Mearsheimer declared that no nation has ever achieved global hegemony. According to Mearsheimer, America is the only country that has achieved predominant influence in its own region (the Western Hemisphere) and has also been able to prevent any other great power from dominating any other region. Mearsheimer wrote, “States that achieve regional hegemony seek to prevent great powers in other regions from duplicating their feat. Regional hegemons, in other words, do not want peers” (2014 edition, p. 41).

Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy has, whether knowingly or not, adopted these aims as well. It discusses the various regions of the world in the order of their priority for the Trump Administration: the Western Hemisphere first, followed by Asia (or Indo-Pacific), Europe, the Middle East, and lastly Africa.

With regard to the Western Hemisphere, the NSS unambiguously calls for the restoration of “American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere,” and states, “We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.” This is very much in keeping with what Mearsheimer described as America being a regional hegemon in the Western Hemisphere.

As for the other four regions of the world, though, the Trump Administration seeks either to prevent any other great power from becoming predominant—or it doesn’t see this as a possibility that needs to be worried about. According to the NSS, the Middle East was a priority in the past because it was the world’s most important energy supplier and was a prime theater of superpower conflict. Now, however, there are other energy suppliers (including the U.S.) and superpower competition has been replaced by “great power jockeying” in which the U.S. retains “the most enviable position.” In other words: the Trump Administration does not see any other great power as able to become predominant in this region which is now less strategically important than it used to be anyway.

Similarly, the NSS does not see any other great power as even seeking to become predominant in Africa. The NSS thus sees America’s main interests there as mainly commercial.

By contrast, China is seen as a threat in the Indo-Pacific region. The NSS, though, discusses Chinese threats in the economic and technological spheres before turning to the military one. A continued U.S. military presence in the region is seen as important for preventing Chinese predominance. But Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia are all enjoined by the NSS to increase their defense spending in order to counter this threat. The NSS also identifies “the potential for any competitor to control the South China Sea” as a common threat that not only requires investment in U.S. military capabilities, “but also strong cooperation with every nation that stands to suffer, from India to Japan and beyond.” Unlike the Middle East and Africa, then, the NSS does identify a rival great power as striving for predominance in the Indo-Pacific region. Countering it, though, is not seen as just being America’s responsibility, but also that of other powerful states in the region.

The strangest section in the 2025 NSS is the one on Europe. While acknowledging that “many Europeans regard Russia as an existential threat,” the NSS envisions America’s role as “managing European relations with Russia” both to “reestablish conditions of strategic stability” and “to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia and European states.” This is very different from the decades-long U.S. policy of seeing America’s role as defending democratic Europe against an expansionist Soviet Union in the past and Putin’s Russia more recently. Indeed, the NSS’s claim that the European Union undermines “political liberty and sovereignty” and its welcoming “the growing influence of patriotic European parties” (in other words, anti-EU right wing nationalist ones) suggests that it is not Russia which the Trump Administration sees as a rival, but the European Union. The 2025 NSS does call for a “strong Europe…to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.” The NSS, though, seems to envision the European Union as either greater than or equal to Russia in threatening to dominate European nations.

In his book, Mearsheimer did not envision the European Union as a potential great power rival to the U.S. Indeed, there isn’t even an entry for it in the book’s index. The way that the NSS envisions the world, though, comports with how Mearsheimer described America’s great power position: predominant in the Western Hemisphere and able to prevent any other great power from becoming predominant in any other region of the world. Mearsheimer, though, is a scholar who described the position in the world that he saw the U.S. as having achieved and which would seek to maintain. The 2025 NSS, by contrast, is a policy document laying out how the Trump Administration believes it can best maintain this position. And there is reason to doubt that it has done so realistically.

Keeping non-Hemispheric great powers out of the Western Hemisphere will not be easy when there are governments there that want to cooperate with them. Further, devoting American resources to being predominant in Latin America when this will be resented and resisted could not only take away from America’s ability to prevent rival great powers from becoming predominant in other regions, but could counterproductively lead Latin American nations than have already done so to increase their cooperation with external great powers which the Trump Administration wants to avoid.

Further, the Trump Administration’s efforts to reduce the influence of the European Union runs two risks: the first is that such an effort will succeed, but that the rise of anti-EU nationalist governments throughout the old continent results in a Europe less able to resist Russian manipulation and incursion. The second is that Trump Administration efforts to weaken the European Union backfire and result not only in a Europe united against American interference but unnecessarily emerging as a rival to the U.S.

It would be ironic indeed if pursuing the NSS’s plan for upholding what Mearsheimer described as America’s ability to predominate over the Western Hemisphere combined with an ability to prevent any rival from predominating over any other region ended up undermining America’s ability to do either.

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Students at an Oklahoma high school crowned their principal prom king after he charged, disarmed and was shot by an armed intruder at their campus.

Kirk Moore, the Pauls Valley high school principal, received the honor on Friday night after his students voted to honor him for having defended them.

“Ladies and gentlemen, our king,” an announcer declared at the Pauls Valley high school prom.

Video of the scene showed students cheering and celebrating as Moore received the honor, with a couple high-fiving him in congratulations. One clip showed him walking in to sound of the Nickelback song Hero, the hit theme of the 2002 film Spider-Man.

Right after someone put a crown on Moore’s head, part of the song’s chorus blared on the video: “And they say that a hero can save us / I’m not going to stand here and wait.”

The jubilant moment punctuated a sequence of events that began with the attack in which Moore intervened at about 2.30pm on 7 April at Moore’s school about 60 miles (96.6km) south of Oklahoma City, a sworn police document states.

According to investigators, the alleged attacker, Victor Lee Hawkins, had two semi-automatic handguns and fired several shots before he was disarmed by Moore and another school staff member who arrived to help. School surveillance video captured the intrusion.

Hawkins “entered the school, pointed his pistol, and yelled for everyone to get on the ground”, special agent Meric Mussett of the Oklahoma state bureau of investigation wrote in the sworn police statement.

The statement added that the alleged shooter pointed the gun at a female student in the lobby and pulled the trigger, but the weapon malfunctioned.

“Hawkins then stepped out from behind the vending machine and pointed his gun at a male student in the foyer,” Mussett’s statement said. “Principal Moore then came out of his office and charged at Hawkins.”

Moore was shot in the leg as he wrestled the attacker, a 20-year-old described in court documents as being obsessed with the 1999 shooting at Colorado’s Columbine high school in which 12 students and one teacher were killed.

Authorities praised Moore’s actions, saying he prevented a tragedy and possible mass shooting at his school.

“It doesn’t surprise me the actions that he took, but it is amazing, the actions that he took,” Don May, Pauls Valley’s police department chief, told NBC News. “There’s not a doubt in my mind that he saved kids’ lives.”

Investigators said the alleged attacker was a former Pauls Valley high school student.

Moore said in a statement reported by NBC that he was grateful for “an outpouring of love and support” after the attack that he thwarted.

“Like so many educators around the country, we prepare for these events through training and careful assessment of the threats,” Moore said. “I am grateful that my instincts and training, as well as God’s hand, were available to me.”

#Oklahoma #principal #disarmed #gunwielding #intruder #crowned #prom #king">Oklahoma principal who disarmed gun-wielding intruder crowned prom kingStudents at an Oklahoma high school crowned their principal prom king after he charged, disarmed and was shot by an armed intruder at their campus.Kirk Moore, the Pauls Valley high school principal, received the honor on Friday night after his students voted to honor him for having defended them.“Ladies and gentlemen, our king,” an announcer declared at the Pauls Valley high school prom.Video of the scene showed students cheering and celebrating as Moore received the honor, with a couple high-fiving him in congratulations. One clip showed him walking in to sound of the Nickelback song Hero, the hit theme of the 2002 film Spider-Man.Right after someone put a crown on Moore’s head, part of the song’s chorus blared on the video: “And they say that a hero can save us / I’m not going to stand here and wait.”The jubilant moment punctuated a sequence of events that began with the attack in which Moore intervened at about 2.30pm on 7 April at Moore’s school about 60 miles (96.6km) south of Oklahoma City, a sworn police document states.According to investigators, the alleged attacker, Victor Lee Hawkins, had two semi-automatic handguns and fired several shots before he was disarmed by Moore and another school staff member who arrived to help. School surveillance video captured the intrusion.Hawkins “entered the school, pointed his pistol, and yelled for everyone to get on the ground”, special agent Meric Mussett of the Oklahoma state bureau of investigation wrote in the sworn police statement.The statement added that the alleged shooter pointed the gun at a female student in the lobby and pulled the trigger, but the weapon malfunctioned.“Hawkins then stepped out from behind the vending machine and pointed his gun at a male student in the foyer,” Mussett’s statement said. “Principal Moore then came out of his office and charged at Hawkins.”Moore was shot in the leg as he wrestled the attacker, a 20-year-old described in court documents as being obsessed with the 1999 shooting at Colorado’s Columbine high school in which 12 students and one teacher were killed.Authorities praised Moore’s actions, saying he prevented a tragedy and possible mass shooting at his school.“It doesn’t surprise me the actions that he took, but it is amazing, the actions that he took,” Don May, Pauls Valley’s police department chief, told NBC News. “There’s not a doubt in my mind that he saved kids’ lives.”Investigators said the alleged attacker was a former Pauls Valley high school student.Moore said in a statement reported by NBC that he was grateful for “an outpouring of love and support” after the attack that he thwarted.“Like so many educators around the country, we prepare for these events through training and careful assessment of the threats,” Moore said. “I am grateful that my instincts and training, as well as God’s hand, were available to me.”#Oklahoma #principal #disarmed #gunwielding #intruder #crowned #prom #king

he charged, disarmed and was shot by an armed intruder at their campus.

Kirk Moore, the Pauls Valley high school principal, received the honor on Friday night after his students voted to honor him for having defended them.

“Ladies and gentlemen, our king,” an announcer declared at the Pauls Valley high school prom.

Video of the scene showed students cheering and celebrating as Moore received the honor, with a couple high-fiving him in congratulations. One clip showed him walking in to sound of the Nickelback song Hero, the hit theme of the 2002 film Spider-Man.

Right after someone put a crown on Moore’s head, part of the song’s chorus blared on the video: “And they say that a hero can save us / I’m not going to stand here and wait.”

The jubilant moment punctuated a sequence of events that began with the attack in which Moore intervened at about 2.30pm on 7 April at Moore’s school about 60 miles (96.6km) south of Oklahoma City, a sworn police document states.

According to investigators, the alleged attacker, Victor Lee Hawkins, had two semi-automatic handguns and fired several shots before he was disarmed by Moore and another school staff member who arrived to help. School surveillance video captured the intrusion.

Hawkins “entered the school, pointed his pistol, and yelled for everyone to get on the ground”, special agent Meric Mussett of the Oklahoma state bureau of investigation wrote in the sworn police statement.

The statement added that the alleged shooter pointed the gun at a female student in the lobby and pulled the trigger, but the weapon malfunctioned.

“Hawkins then stepped out from behind the vending machine and pointed his gun at a male student in the foyer,” Mussett’s statement said. “Principal Moore then came out of his office and charged at Hawkins.”

Moore was shot in the leg as he wrestled the attacker, a 20-year-old described in court documents as being obsessed with the 1999 shooting at Colorado’s Columbine high school in which 12 students and one teacher were killed.

Authorities praised Moore’s actions, saying he prevented a tragedy and possible mass shooting at his school.

“It doesn’t surprise me the actions that he took, but it is amazing, the actions that he took,” Don May, Pauls Valley’s police department chief, told NBC News. “There’s not a doubt in my mind that he saved kids’ lives.”

Investigators said the alleged attacker was a former Pauls Valley high school student.

Moore said in a statement reported by NBC that he was grateful for “an outpouring of love and support” after the attack that he thwarted.

“Like so many educators around the country, we prepare for these events through training and careful assessment of the threats,” Moore said. “I am grateful that my instincts and training, as well as God’s hand, were available to me.”

#Oklahoma #principal #disarmed #gunwielding #intruder #crowned #prom #king">Oklahoma principal who disarmed gun-wielding intruder crowned prom king

Students at an Oklahoma high school crowned their principal prom king after he charged, disarmed and was shot by an armed intruder at their campus.

Kirk Moore, the Pauls Valley high school principal, received the honor on Friday night after his students voted to honor him for having defended them.

“Ladies and gentlemen, our king,” an announcer declared at the Pauls Valley high school prom.

Video of the scene showed students cheering and celebrating as Moore received the honor, with a couple high-fiving him in congratulations. One clip showed him walking in to sound of the Nickelback song Hero, the hit theme of the 2002 film Spider-Man.

Right after someone put a crown on Moore’s head, part of the song’s chorus blared on the video: “And they say that a hero can save us / I’m not going to stand here and wait.”

The jubilant moment punctuated a sequence of events that began with the attack in which Moore intervened at about 2.30pm on 7 April at Moore’s school about 60 miles (96.6km) south of Oklahoma City, a sworn police document states.

According to investigators, the alleged attacker, Victor Lee Hawkins, had two semi-automatic handguns and fired several shots before he was disarmed by Moore and another school staff member who arrived to help. School surveillance video captured the intrusion.

Hawkins “entered the school, pointed his pistol, and yelled for everyone to get on the ground”, special agent Meric Mussett of the Oklahoma state bureau of investigation wrote in the sworn police statement.

The statement added that the alleged shooter pointed the gun at a female student in the lobby and pulled the trigger, but the weapon malfunctioned.

“Hawkins then stepped out from behind the vending machine and pointed his gun at a male student in the foyer,” Mussett’s statement said. “Principal Moore then came out of his office and charged at Hawkins.”

Moore was shot in the leg as he wrestled the attacker, a 20-year-old described in court documents as being obsessed with the 1999 shooting at Colorado’s Columbine high school in which 12 students and one teacher were killed.

Authorities praised Moore’s actions, saying he prevented a tragedy and possible mass shooting at his school.

“It doesn’t surprise me the actions that he took, but it is amazing, the actions that he took,” Don May, Pauls Valley’s police department chief, told NBC News. “There’s not a doubt in my mind that he saved kids’ lives.”

Investigators said the alleged attacker was a former Pauls Valley high school student.

Moore said in a statement reported by NBC that he was grateful for “an outpouring of love and support” after the attack that he thwarted.

“Like so many educators around the country, we prepare for these events through training and careful assessment of the threats,” Moore said. “I am grateful that my instincts and training, as well as God’s hand, were available to me.”

#Oklahoma #principal #disarmed #gunwielding #intruder #crowned #prom #king

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