Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Marty Supreme
Screenshot courtesy A24/YouTube
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Oct. 9, 2025): I’m getting stressed. Not only because of the state of the world order (or lack thereof), but because of the growing consensus among my colleagues — and, admittedly, myself — about what could land best picture nominations this year. There are too many contenders cracking double digits, and too many of them come from the same studios.
If you’ve been following Variety’s updated projections, Neon currently leads with three projected best picture contenders, followed by Netflix and Warner Bros. with two apiece. A24, Focus Features and Universal Pictures each round out the list with one. Four films — “One Battle After Another,” “Wicked: For Good,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet” — are all currently tracking with 10 or more nominations. “Marty Supreme,” which just held its successful “secret screening” at the New York Film Festival and a friends-and-family/press screening in Los Angeles, sits right below that with eight — but has plenty of room to grow.
The 2019 best picture lineup still holds the record for most films with double-digit nominations with four — “Joker,” “The Irishman,” “1917” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Coincidentally, none of those went on to win the top prize. Instead, “Parasite,” with just six nominations, made history as the first non-English-language film to claim best picture.
This year feels particularly “top heavy,” with the same few movies expected to dominate the artisan categories and potentially crowd out smaller contenders. Of course, it’s still early in the season — and as any awards strategist will tell you, momentum is fickle. A lot can change between now and the start of phase one campaigning in November. Still, it’s fascinating to watch which titles might lose steam and which ones could quietly climb their way back into the race.
The updated categories are below, with the first adapted screenplay chart posted, and new rankings coming throughout the weekend.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Wicked: For Good” (12); “Sinners” (11); “Hamnet” (10); and “Sinners” (11); “Marty Supreme” (8)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (27); Netflix (17); Neon (15); Focus Features (14); Universal Pictures (12)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: A24 “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sanfic Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Josh Safdie
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Victor Juca Timothée Chalamet ***
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Dwayne Johnson
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Benicio del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew Scott
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Universal Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Gwyneth Paltrow
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Casting
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard TelseyOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Peter Mountain/Netflix “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Josh Safdie
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg KwedarOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Disney Animation “Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Production Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of 20th Century Studios “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
Dylan Cole, Vanessa Cole, Ben Procter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alice BrooksOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Costume Design
Image Credit: ©MGM/Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Lindsay Pugh
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Sound
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
Image Credit: Eros Hoagland/Netflix “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Volker Bertlemann
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Stephen SchwartzOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Song
Image Credit: NETFLIX “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Train Dreams” by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Zoo” by Shakira, Ed Sheeran and Blake SlatkinOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Sundance Film Festival “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“The Eyes of Ghana” (U.S. Acquisition TBD)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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International Feature
Image Credit: Victor Juca “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
dir. Park-Chan wook
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)
dir. Kaouther Ben HaniaOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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