The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, but crypto prices still slumped.
A lower federal funds rate makes borrowing costs more affordable, stimulating financial activity. Rate cut announcements typically boost the prices of riskier assets.
Neither crypto nor equities followed that script on Wednesday, however. A potential reason? In a speech following the announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more inflation-hawkish tone than expected when discussing the possibility of future cuts.
“In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” Powell explained. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it. Policy is not on a preset course.”
His comments undercut the expectations of traders: On Tuesday, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, estimated there was a 90.5% chance the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would slash the policy rate by another 25 basis points at its next meeting in December. That probability plunged to around 65% after Powell’s speech.
The overall crypto market cap dipped by 0.8% on Wednesday, with Bitcoin dropping by 1.3%, per data from CoinGecko. The S&P 500 tracked sideways.
In his speech, Powell said downside risks to employment had increased, justifying the FOMC’s step towards a more neutral policy stance this week. The Fed chair also noted that longer-term inflation expectations remain consistent with the Fed’s 2% goal, though he acknowledged that the Trump Administration’s tariffs could impact that trajectory.
“Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation,” Powell said. “A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived — a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.”
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