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Turnover regression has been a big theme of the 2026 NFL Playoffs

Turnover regression has been a big theme of the 2026 NFL Playoffs

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Through two rounds of the 2026 NFL postseason, turnovers have been a major story as usual, whether for timeliness, volume, or both. The Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos are both a win away from the Super Bowl thanks to overtime interceptions resulting in eventual game-winning field goals (although one was a lot more controversial than the other), while the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are out after their respective ball security nightmares.

One of the blessings and curses of “win or go home” playoff games is that season-long trends don’t always stay intact, and that’s been the case these past two weeks. Turnover regression has swung positively and negatively for several eliminated teams and the top seeds in the Conference Championship round.

Bears, Texans, and Jaguars come back to Earth

The top three teams in positive turnover differential were the Chicago Bears (+22), Houston Texans (+17), and Jacksonville Jaguars (+13). All of them picked the worst possible time for negative turnover regression.

Chicago led the NFL in takeaways with 33, which propped up what was otherwise a below-average defense. After recording at least one turnover in 15 of 17 regular season games, the Bears failed to turn the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams over despite numerous opportunities. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams went from throwing seven interceptions all season to five in the postseason. The Bears had never finished -3 in turnovers under Caleb Williams until last Sunday, and the final interception to Kam Curl proved to be a dagger.

The elite Houston Texans defense ranked third in takeaways whereas the offense was second-best in giveaways. Demeco Ryans’ defense maintained its dominance by forcing five turnovers off of Aaron Rodgers and Drake Maye, only for C.J. Stroud to unravel. Stroud got away with a three-turnover showing in a blowout of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but a comically bad four-interception disaster versus the New England Patriots was too much to overcome. Add in Woody Marks’ red zone fumble and the Texans turned it over five times for the first time since 2021.

Lastly, the Jaguars were second in defensive interceptions and only lost the turnover battle twice in the regular season. In the Wild Card round versus the Buffalo Bills, they neither won the turnover battle nor picked Josh Allen off. They did get a takeaway off of a Ray Davis kickoff return fumble but scored no points off of it. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who’d thrown 11 picks in his first 11 regular season games before throwing just one over the remaining six starts, had a first quarter interception resulting in a Bills field goal, and a season-ending pick in Jacksonville’s do-or-die possession.

Broncos, Seahawks buck regular season woes

The top teams in the AFC and NFC respectively made some history together. For the first time since seeding was introduced to the NFL playoffs in 1975, both number one seeds finished the regular season with a negative turnover differential. Denver and Seattle had identical -3 margins, but the Broncos were low on turnovers and giveaways, whereas the Seahawks had the second-most turnovers to outpace the sixth-most takeaways. Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers, and the Seahawks topped the lost fumbles category—even their defense turned it over twice by fumbling interceptions back to the opposition.

How quickly things can change for the better.

Vance Joseph’s defense, which hadn’t forced more than two turnovers in a game all season, got four off of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and another from league-leading rusher James Cook. Bo Nix threw an interception but Allen gave it right back with a pick of his own. Denver scored 16 of their 33 points came off of Buffalo giveaways. If they’re to stand a chance in the AFC Championship without Bo Nix, a repeat of the Bills game on defense may be the winning formula to spring an upset.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks again made life hell for the 49ers offense, turning Brock Purdy over twice and recovering a Jake Tonges fumble in their 41-6 rout. Realistically, the turnovers didn’t have a strong effect on the outcome; what’s more important for Seattle was Darnold and the offense not turning it over for only the fifth time all season. It’s also the first time since Mike Macdonald became head coach in 2024 that Seattle has gone back-to-back games without a turnover.

There is recent precedent for Super Bowl champions with negative turnover differentials. The 2023 Kansas City Chiefs were somehow -11 in the regular season but +2 in the playoffs, the 2022 Chiefs were -3 in the regular season before a +4 mark in the postseason, and the 2015 Denver Broncos turned a -3 margin (including a league-worst 23 interceptions) into +4 in the playoffs.

Patriots, Rams living charmed lives?

The other half of the Conference Championship field consists of the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams, both of whom have been on the positive side of the turnover count all season, and outside of New England’s Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, that’s held up through the playoffs. However, there’s been plenty of good fortune along the way for their MVP candidate quarterbacks.

It’s hard to believe that Drake Maye could be considered lucky to only have five turnovers through his first postseason, but he has fumbled six times already (two fewer than his entire regular season). The Patriots were able to recover three, most notably a strip-sack that Danielle Hunter seemed destined to pick up and at least set Houston up at New England’s 3-yard line, only for rookie left tackle Will Campbell to save the day.

Matthew Stafford has just the one turnover to his name after facing the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Far from his sharpest at Soldier Field, Stafford fumbled twice on strip-sacks but the Bears couldn’t capitalize. Maybe the biggest play of the Rams’ season was not Kam Curl’s pick of Caleb Williams, but superstar receiver Puka Nacua breaking up a surefire interception to Nick Scott in the Panthers game when the Rams were trailing in the fourth quarter.

Turnovers have been a huge factor in the NFC Championship matchup, with the Rams getting six interceptions off Sam Darnold (plus a Cooper Kupp fumble for good measure) through two extremely close meetings. Seattle recovered a Puka Nacua fumble in the first game in Week 11, but ultimately Stafford has kept a clean scorecard. The trilogy may come down to whether or not Seattle can overcome its season-long issues on offense and if its defense finally forcing major mistakes out of Stafford.

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Deadspin | Larry Fitzgerald thanks all of Arizona: ‘You gave me a home’ Pro Football Hall of Fame enshrinee Larry Fitzgerald and his son Devin Fitzgerald unveil his bust during the Class of 2026 enshrinement ceremony at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio, on Aug. 8, 2026. One day after being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, longtime Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald paid for a full-page ad in the Arizona Republic to thank everyone who made a Minnesota native feel welcome in the state he calls home. After being selected by the Cardinals with the third overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, Fitzgerald spent all 17 years of his NFL career in Arizona. He caught 1,432 passes for 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns while earning 11 trips to the Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald ranks second to Jerry Rice on the NFL’s all-time lists for receptions and receiving yards. He stands sixth in touchdown catches, trailing Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Chris Carter and Marvin Harrison. Here’s the message Fitzgerald penned for his Arizona Republic ad: People have asked me countless times what it felt like to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The truth is, it was one of the greatest honors of my life. But this really isn’t a Hall of Fame story. It’s a thank-you letter. I arrived in Arizona as a 20-year-old kid who didn’t know a single person. I had no idea this desert would become the place that would shape me into the man I am today. The day I landed was the same day the nation learned Pat Tillman had lost his life. Pat is one of America’s great heroes. I stepped off the plane into a state where its people were carrying real grief, and something inside me grew quiet. I started paying attention. You learn quickly what loyalty looks like when it isn’t just a word. For the next 17 seasons, I quietly measured myself against the standard Pat Tillman set. I’m still not sure I ever lived up to it. Somewhere along the way, Arizona stopped being the place where I lived and became the place I was from. It happened through a thousand ordinary moments until one day, I realized this was simply home. Not because I was a Hall of Famer. Not because I was a wide receiver. Just because the people of this state allowed me to be Larry. You don’t fall in love with a place because of its stadiums. You fall in love on quiet mornings hiking Camelback Mountain. On crisp fall afternoons walking a golf course. During summers in Flagstaff and standing among the red rocks of Sedona that remind you just how small you are in the best possible way. When I stopped playing football, I walked away quietly. I’m known for my Irish goodbyes. Arizona even gave me that. Yet you kept showing up for me anyway, especially through the work of my foundation. Your support was never conditional. You never asked me to be anything other than myself, and somehow that was always enough. Arizona gave a kid from Minneapolis something he didn’t even know he was searching for. Belonging. And that sense of belonging changed me. After a while, you weren’t cheering for a wide receiver anymore, you were cheering for one of your own. So this isn’t really a story about 17 years in a Cardinals uniform or a bronze bust in Canton. It’s the story of a young man who was welcomed by a state that owed him nothing and gave him everything. Thank you, Arizona. Thank you for letting a kid from somewhere else become one of your own. Thank you for embracing not just the player, but the man. You gave me far more than a career. You gave me friendships that will last a lifetime. You gave me purpose beyond football. You gave me a place where my children will always know they belong. Most of all, you gave me a home. With love and gratitude, (signed) Larry Fitzgerald HOF 26 –Field Level Media #Deadspin #Larry #Fitzgerald #Arizona #gave #homePro Football Hall of Fame enshrinee Larry Fitzgerald and his son Devin Fitzgerald unveil his bust during the Class of 2026 enshrinement ceremony at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio, on Aug. 8, 2026.

One day after being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, longtime Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald paid for a full-page ad in the Arizona Republic to thank everyone who made a Minnesota native feel welcome in the state he calls home.

After being selected by the Cardinals with the third overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, Fitzgerald spent all 17 years of his NFL career in Arizona. He caught 1,432 passes for 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns while earning 11 trips to the Pro Bowl.

Fitzgerald ranks second to Jerry Rice on the NFL’s all-time lists for receptions and receiving yards. He stands sixth in touchdown catches, trailing Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Chris Carter and Marvin Harrison.

Here’s the message Fitzgerald penned for his Arizona Republic ad:

People have asked me countless times what it felt like to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The truth is, it was one of the greatest honors of my life.

But this really isn’t a Hall of Fame story.

It’s a thank-you letter.

I arrived in Arizona as a 20-year-old kid who didn’t know a single person. I had no idea this desert would become the place that would shape me into the man I am today.

The day I landed was the same day the nation learned Pat Tillman had lost his life. Pat is one of America’s great heroes.

I stepped off the plane into a state where its people were carrying real grief, and something inside me grew quiet. I started paying attention.

You learn quickly what loyalty looks like when it isn’t just a word.

For the next 17 seasons, I quietly measured myself against the standard Pat Tillman set. I’m still not sure I ever lived up to it.

Somewhere along the way, Arizona stopped being the place where I lived and became the place I was from.

It happened through a thousand ordinary moments until one day, I realized this was simply home. Not because I was a Hall of Famer. Not because I was a wide receiver. Just because the people of this state allowed me to be Larry.

You don’t fall in love with a place because of its stadiums. You fall in love on quiet mornings hiking Camelback Mountain.

On crisp fall afternoons walking a golf course. During summers in Flagstaff and standing among the red rocks of Sedona that remind you just how small you are in the best possible way.


When I stopped playing football, I walked away quietly. I’m known for my Irish goodbyes. Arizona even gave me that. Yet you kept showing up for me anyway, especially through the work of my foundation. Your support was never conditional. You never asked me to be anything other than myself, and somehow that was always enough.

Arizona gave a kid from Minneapolis something he didn’t even know he was searching for.

Belonging.

And that sense of belonging changed me.

After a while, you weren’t cheering for a wide receiver anymore, you were cheering for one of your own.

So this isn’t really a story about 17 years in a Cardinals uniform or a bronze bust in Canton.

It’s the story of a young man who was welcomed by a state that owed him nothing and gave him everything.

Thank you, Arizona.

Thank you for letting a kid from somewhere else become one of your own.

Thank you for embracing not just the player, but the man.

You gave me far more than a career. You gave me friendships that will last a lifetime. You gave me purpose beyond football.

You gave me a place where my children will always know they belong.

Most of all, you gave me a home.

With love and gratitude,

(signed)

Larry Fitzgerald

HOF 26

–Field Level Media

#Deadspin #Larry #Fitzgerald #Arizona #gave #home">Deadspin | Larry Fitzgerald thanks all of Arizona: ‘You gave me a home’ Pro Football Hall of Fame enshrinee Larry Fitzgerald and his son Devin Fitzgerald unveil his bust during the Class of 2026 enshrinement ceremony at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio, on Aug. 8, 2026. One day after being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, longtime Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald paid for a full-page ad in the Arizona Republic to thank everyone who made a Minnesota native feel welcome in the state he calls home. After being selected by the Cardinals with the third overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, Fitzgerald spent all 17 years of his NFL career in Arizona. He caught 1,432 passes for 17,492 yards and 121 touchdowns while earning 11 trips to the Pro Bowl. Fitzgerald ranks second to Jerry Rice on the NFL’s all-time lists for receptions and receiving yards. He stands sixth in touchdown catches, trailing Rice, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Chris Carter and Marvin Harrison. Here’s the message Fitzgerald penned for his Arizona Republic ad: People have asked me countless times what it felt like to be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The truth is, it was one of the greatest honors of my life. But this really isn’t a Hall of Fame story. It’s a thank-you letter. I arrived in Arizona as a 20-year-old kid who didn’t know a single person. I had no idea this desert would become the place that would shape me into the man I am today. The day I landed was the same day the nation learned Pat Tillman had lost his life. Pat is one of America’s great heroes. I stepped off the plane into a state where its people were carrying real grief, and something inside me grew quiet. I started paying attention. You learn quickly what loyalty looks like when it isn’t just a word. For the next 17 seasons, I quietly measured myself against the standard Pat Tillman set. I’m still not sure I ever lived up to it. Somewhere along the way, Arizona stopped being the place where I lived and became the place I was from. It happened through a thousand ordinary moments until one day, I realized this was simply home. Not because I was a Hall of Famer. Not because I was a wide receiver. Just because the people of this state allowed me to be Larry. You don’t fall in love with a place because of its stadiums. You fall in love on quiet mornings hiking Camelback Mountain. On crisp fall afternoons walking a golf course. During summers in Flagstaff and standing among the red rocks of Sedona that remind you just how small you are in the best possible way. When I stopped playing football, I walked away quietly. I’m known for my Irish goodbyes. Arizona even gave me that. Yet you kept showing up for me anyway, especially through the work of my foundation. Your support was never conditional. You never asked me to be anything other than myself, and somehow that was always enough. Arizona gave a kid from Minneapolis something he didn’t even know he was searching for. Belonging. And that sense of belonging changed me. After a while, you weren’t cheering for a wide receiver anymore, you were cheering for one of your own. So this isn’t really a story about 17 years in a Cardinals uniform or a bronze bust in Canton. It’s the story of a young man who was welcomed by a state that owed him nothing and gave him everything. Thank you, Arizona. Thank you for letting a kid from somewhere else become one of your own. Thank you for embracing not just the player, but the man. You gave me far more than a career. You gave me friendships that will last a lifetime. You gave me purpose beyond football. You gave me a place where my children will always know they belong. Most of all, you gave me a home. With love and gratitude, (signed) Larry Fitzgerald HOF 26 –Field Level Media #Deadspin #Larry #Fitzgerald #Arizona #gave #home

When I arrived to cover the Minnesota Vikings for the St. Paul Pioneer Press in 2000, it was clear I was dealing with a star-studded roster.

The team boasted future Pro Football Hall of Famers; wide receivers Cris Carter and Randy Moss and defensive tackle John Randle. Plus, there were a ton of other stars including quarterback Daunte Culpepper, center Matt Birk and running back Robert Smith. The Vikings were loaded with star power.

The talent around the team wasn’t relegated simply to the roster, however.

That summer I first laid my eyes on a 16-year-old high school junior named Larry Fitzgerald Jr. The son of a local media member and close friend of Vikings’ head coach Dennis Green, Little Fitzy was a ball boy during training camp and on game days. It turns out, Larry Fitzgerald Jr. is very likely the most famous former NFL ball boy in history.

On reporting date, fellow reporter Kevin Seifert pointed out Fitzgerald to me and said “that’s a bad man.” Seifert didn’t say that about any of the actual Vikings that day.

Fitzgerald was already known as the best Minnesota high school prospect in years and he was considered one of the best high school players in the country. Seifert told me the buzz was that the kid was, no doubt, headed to the NFL in a half decade or so. Seifert was on the money. I’m not sure the Hall of Fame was mentioned or not.

But this weekend of course, that’s exactly where Little Fitzy is headed. He will be enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, on Saturday as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Fitzgerald will be remembered as one of the best and most productive wide receivers in league history after an incredible 17-season career with the Arizona Cardinals.

I have a ton of memories of being around Fitzgerald, but there’s one that stands out among them all.

One day after training camp, a nameless Vikings’ wide receiver camp body was getting extra work on a JUGS machine, catching balls. He was being tutored by Fitzgerald, who was showing this player how to properly approach the incoming ball. This was a child instructing a grown man an NFL team deemed good enough to attend training camp.

Larry Fitzgerald Jr. was special even back then.

In addition to his incredible natural football ability, Larry Fitzgerald Jr. stood out for his politeness and good nature. You could tell he was a good kid from the first time you met him.

There was no I’m-going-to-be-a-star attitude. He was genuine and he worked his tail off with the rest of the ball boys. There was no entitlement. It was as if he was using his time around an NFL camp as an internship for his future. He passed with flying colors.

I’ve always cherished following his career from his days at Pittsburgh in college to his days of dominating the NFL and I’ve enjoyed running into him over the years now and again.

Enjoy Canton, Little Fitzy, you’ve earned it.

#Larry #Fitzgeralds #Hall #Fame #induction #years #making">Larry Fitzgerald’s Hall of Fame induction is 25 years in the making When I arrived to cover the Minnesota Vikings for the St. Paul Pioneer Press in 2000, it was clear I was dealing with a star-studded roster.The team boasted future Pro Football Hall of Famers; wide receivers Cris Carter and Randy Moss and defensive tackle John Randle. Plus, there were a ton of other stars including quarterback Daunte Culpepper, center Matt Birk and running back Robert Smith. The Vikings were loaded with star power.The talent around the team wasn’t relegated simply to the roster, however.That summer I first laid my eyes on a 16-year-old high school junior named Larry Fitzgerald Jr. The son of a local media member and close friend of Vikings’ head coach Dennis Green, Little Fitzy was a ball boy during training camp and on game days. It turns out, Larry Fitzgerald Jr. is very likely the most famous former NFL ball boy in history.On reporting date, fellow reporter Kevin Seifert pointed out Fitzgerald to me and said “that’s a bad man.” Seifert didn’t say that about any of the actual Vikings that day.Fitzgerald was already known as the best Minnesota high school prospect in years and he was considered one of the best high school players in the country. Seifert told me the buzz was that the kid was, no doubt, headed to the NFL in a half decade or so. Seifert was on the money. I’m not sure the Hall of Fame was mentioned or not.But this weekend of course, that’s exactly where Little Fitzy is headed. He will be enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio, on Saturday as a first-ballot Hall of Famer.Fitzgerald will be remembered as one of the best and most productive wide receivers in league history after an incredible 17-season career with the Arizona Cardinals.I have a ton of memories of being around Fitzgerald, but there’s one that stands out among them all.One day after training camp, a nameless Vikings’ wide receiver camp body was getting extra work on a JUGS machine, catching balls. He was being tutored by Fitzgerald, who was showing this player how to properly approach the incoming ball. This was a child instructing a grown man an NFL team deemed good enough to attend training camp.Larry Fitzgerald Jr. was special even back then.In addition to his incredible natural football ability, Larry Fitzgerald Jr. stood out for his politeness and good nature. You could tell he was a good kid from the first time you met him.There was no I’m-going-to-be-a-star attitude. He was genuine and he worked his tail off with the rest of the ball boys. There was no entitlement. It was as if he was using his time around an NFL camp as an internship for his future. He passed with flying colors.I’ve always cherished following his career from his days at Pittsburgh in college to his days of dominating the NFL and I’ve enjoyed running into him over the years now and again.Enjoy Canton, Little Fitzy, you’ve earned it. #Larry #Fitzgeralds #Hall #Fame #induction #years #making

Follow Sportstar for extensive coverage of the tenth edition of the TNPL, from live scores and match reports to exclusive analysis and features.

TOSS

Tiruppur Tamizhans won the toss and chose to bowl first.

PLAYING XIs

Nellai Royal Kings: Athish SR(w), D Santhosh Kumar, Ajitesh Guruswamy, U Mukilesh, Rithik Easwaran, Sonu Yadav(c), Muhammed Adnan Khan, Ramalingam Rohit, Emmanuel Cherian, NS Harish, Rocky Bhasker

Tiruppur Tamizhans: Tushar Raheja(w), Amit Sathvik, Pradosh Ranjan Paul, Mohamed Ali, Uthirasamy Sasidev, Ravisrinivasan Sai Kishore(c), M Mathivannan, S Mohan Prasath, R Silambarasan, Esakkimuthu A, T Natarajan

Published on Aug 09, 2026

#TNPL #Live #Allround #batting #display #propels #Nellai #Royal #Kings">TNPL 2026 Live: All-round batting display propels Nellai Royal Kings to 206/8 Follow Sportstar for extensive coverage of the tenth edition of the TNPL, from live scores and match reports to exclusive analysis and features.TOSSTiruppur Tamizhans won the toss and chose to bowl first.PLAYING XIsNellai Royal Kings: Athish SR(w), D Santhosh Kumar, Ajitesh Guruswamy, U Mukilesh, Rithik Easwaran, Sonu Yadav(c), Muhammed Adnan Khan, Ramalingam Rohit, Emmanuel Cherian, NS Harish, Rocky BhaskerTiruppur Tamizhans: Tushar Raheja(w), Amit Sathvik, Pradosh Ranjan Paul, Mohamed Ali, Uthirasamy Sasidev, Ravisrinivasan Sai Kishore(c), M Mathivannan, S Mohan Prasath, R Silambarasan, Esakkimuthu A, T NatarajanPublished on Aug 09, 2026 #TNPL #Live #Allround #batting #display #propels #Nellai #Royal #Kings

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