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What insiders anonymously think about the AI race

What insiders anonymously think about the AI race

This is an excerpt of Sources by Alex Heath, a newsletter about AI and the tech industry, syndicated just for The Verge subscribers once a week.

I spent yesterday at Eric Newcomer’s Cerebral Valley conference in San Francisco, which is now in its third year. I’ve attended this event for three years in a row because Eric does a great job curating the speakers and the audience, and the conversations are more substantive than a typical industry event.

This year was no exception; however, I found the most interesting part of the day to be when the results of an anonymous audience survey were shared onstage. The more than 300 attendees who participated in the survey primarily consisted of AI company founders, followed by investors, other industry professionals (including product leaders and engineers), and members of the media.

Here are the results of the survey in order of how they were shared onstage:

1. What will be OpenAI’s annualized revenue be at the end of 2026?

Median answer: $30 billion.

2. What will Nvidia be worth at the end of 2026?

Median answer: $6 trillion.

3. What year will an independent committee of experts, as dictated by the Microsoft-OpenAI agreement, declare that we have reached AGI?

4. Which venture capital firm’s AI portfolio are you the most jealous of?

The top three most voted for, from first to last: Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, and Sequoia.

5. If you could put money in any private technology companies today, what would they be?

Top five companies in order from first to last: Anthropic, OpenAI, Cursor, Anduril, SpaceX, and OpenEvidence.

6. What global company’s model will top the LMArena web development leaderboard at the end of 2026?

In order from first to last: OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Grok, Qwen.

7. If you could short a $1 billion-plus valuation startup, which would it be?

First place was Perplexity. Second place went to OpenAI. Other names shown onstage: Cursor, Figure, Harvey, Mercor, Mistral, and Thinking Machines.

What stood out to me from these results (Newcomer has published the slides for his paying subscribers):

  • A softening on OpenAI: Given that Sam Altman has said OpenAI plans to end this year with $20 billion of annualized revenue, this group of AI insiders doesn’t expect next year to be as exponential for the business as the leap from 2024 to 2025. The prediction that AGI won’t be declared until 2030 suggests a lack of faith in model progress meaningfully improving in the near term, although that answer could also be clouded by the complexity of how OpenAI and Microsoft must settle on how it’s decided. (I’m still waiting for either company to share information on who its “independent committee of experts” will be and how they’ll decide.) It was also notable that more attendees wanted to buy Anthropic stock than OpenAI’s, despite the consensus being that OpenAI would lead LMArena next year.
  • Meta wasn’t in the conversation. It wasn’t named on the list of models likely to lead LMArena next year. The presence of a Chinese model (Alibaba’s Qwen) in the top five signals a shift that’s already underway, as many companies fine-tune open-source Chinese models rather than Llama. Meta has a lot to prove if it wants to re-enter the model race.
  • Perplexity is controversial. But everyone working in AI already knows that.

Other takeaways from Cerebral Valley:

What’s driving reverse acquihires? I attended a breakout session about AI acquihires, such as Meta’s deal with ScaleAI to hire Alexandr Wang and Google’s deals with Character and Windsurf. I’ve closely covered many of these deals over the past couple of years, but it was interesting to hear the group’s perspective on what drives them. Antitrust scrutiny of Big Tech certainly plays a factor, but some who have been involved in these kinds of transactions also made the point that bigger companies are racing each other to shore up talent and move faster than their competition. They have seemingly “infinite money,” as one member of the group put it, and see it as a game of placing bets on a very finite pool of talent. One AI founder in the group, who fielded multiple offers of this kind, recalled a member of a Big Tech company’s corporate development team asking him how much he wanted his startup to be valued for a deal.

No one cares about AGI anymore. At the first Cerebral Valley conference, the topic of AGI was a major throughline. A startup founder onstage said that “we’re going to be dead” by the time OpenAI releases GPT-10. This year, multiple onstage conversations noted how AGI barely registered as a discussion topic. Instead, most of the interviews focused on the business applications of AI. Multiple companies represented onstage at the first Cerebral Valley event didn’t exist and are now worth billions of dollars. There was a strain of AI bubble fear throughout the day, but mostly, everyone seemed dialed in on how they could win market share and provide products that people want to pay for.

Standout quotes from onstage interviews:

  • Replit CEO Amjad Masad: “If you are competing on price, then maybe you don’t have a business.”
  • Elad Gill: “Most companies should sell at some point. There’s often a market-maximizing moment where you’re going to get the best deal you can. A very small number of companies should never ever sell.”
  • San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie: “People are starting to complain about traffic. Thank goodness. I want those complaints. We still have a lot of empty office space.”
  • Anthropic CPO Mike Krieger: “Time spent is, I can tell you, not on any of the dashboards that I look at. It’s just not a main consideration.”
  • xAI co-founder Jimmy Ba: “Knowledge is just crystalized computation from the past.”
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If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.

Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.

Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.

Starbucks has dropped a new Pink Drink Bearista Cup — how to get yours today
                                                            If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.
        
            Mashable Trend Report
        
        
    


        
        
                                        
                
                                            Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
        
                                        
                
                                            The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
    

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:
Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

                    
                                    #Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today

Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13. Credit: Starbucks

A promotional lifestyle photo showcasing the limited-edition Starbucks Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup filled with a light pink beverage.

The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper. Credit: Starbucks

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:

  • Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

  • Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.

May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

#Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today">Starbucks has dropped a new Pink Drink Bearista Cup — how to get yours today
                                                            If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.
        
            Mashable Trend Report
        
        
    


        
        
                                        
                
                                            Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
        
                                        
                
                                            The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
    

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:
Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

                    
                                    #Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today

Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.

Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.

Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.

Starbucks has dropped a new Pink Drink Bearista Cup — how to get yours today
                                                            If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.
        
            Mashable Trend Report
        
        
    


        
        
                                        
                
                                            Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
        
                                        
                
                                            The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
    

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:
Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

                    
                                    #Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today

Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13. Credit: Starbucks

A promotional lifestyle photo showcasing the limited-edition Starbucks Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup filled with a light pink beverage.

The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper. Credit: Starbucks

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:

  • Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

  • Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.

May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

#Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today">Starbucks has dropped a new Pink Drink Bearista Cup — how to get yours today

If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.

Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.

Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.

Starbucks has dropped a new Pink Drink Bearista Cup — how to get yours today
                                                            If you survived the great Starbucks Bearista Cold Cup shortage of 2025, grab your emotional support water bottles, because we’re about to do it all over again.Starbucks just announced that it’s bringing back the notoriously viral, instantly sold-out bear glass, but this time, it’s getting a bright summer makeover. Enter: the Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup.Inspired by the Pink Drink, this limited-edition cup is pretty much destined to break the internet (though all the Gilmore Girlies were probs to blame for the beanie version selling out so quickly). The new glass features the bear wearing a little pink hat and comes with a strawberry straw topper. I fear the Stanley Stans will be to blame for this sell-out.
        
            Mashable Trend Report
        
        
    


        
        
                                        
                
                                            Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
        
                                        
                
                                            The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper.
                                                                Credit: Starbucks
                                    
                    
    

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:
Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

                    
                                    #Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today

Starbucks is bringing back its viral bear glass with a bright, pink summer makeover starting July 13. Credit: Starbucks

A promotional lifestyle photo showcasing the limited-edition Starbucks Pink Bearista Glass Cold Cup filled with a light pink beverage.

The new Pink Drink-inspired Bearista cup features an adorable pink hat and a matching strawberry straw topper. Credit: Starbucks

If you don’t want to pay ridiculous reseller markups on eBay this time around, here’s a quick rundown on how and when to get one:

  • Brick-and-mortar: You should be able to purchase one in-store at select Starbucks coffeehouses on July 13. (Starbucks is enforcing a strict two-item purchase limit per customer.) The cups will be available in the U.S., Canada, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.

  • Starbucks Shop: Starbucks Reserve members will get early access via the Starbucks Shop on July 9. Note: This is not the same thing as being a standard “Rewards member.” Reserve members are the highest tier of the Rewards program. (I’m a Gold status member myself.) Reserve status members earn 2,500 stars in a single year.

May the odds be ever in your favor next month. Since I haven’t hit that coveted Reserve status yet, I’ll most likely be hitting up my local Starbucks until I can find one in stock.

#Starbucks #dropped #Pink #Drink #Bearista #Cup #today

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