UNITED NATIONS, Jun 06 (IPS) – While Asia and the Pacific seem to be booming in employment and GDP growth, reports reveal a possible volatile and fragile market pegged to U.S. consumerism.
The World Employment and Social Outlook for May 2025 from the International Labour Organization (ILO) reveals reductions of projections about the global job market in large percentages, reflecting an increasingly dependent and fragile job market.
According to the report, global GDP growth projections were lowered from 3.2 percent to 2.8 percent, correlating to a slowdown in economic growth, which is linked to a decrease in employment growth from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent, a difference of 7 million jobs. The root cause of this decrease seems to be based in U.S. consumerism, linking trade disruptions due to high tariffs directly to lower outcomes.
A reliance of the global market on a single country’s consumerism reflects a weakening job market, one which relies on trade from high-income countries. Additionally, the labour income share — the percentage of money from a country’s GDP which goes directly into the laborers pockets — has fallen from 53 percent in 2014 to 52.4 percent in 2024, reflecting a global decrease in purchasing power parity (PPP).
Employment is also seeing a shift, with high- and middle-income countries experiencing market shifts from lower- to medium- skill occupations to high-skill occupations. Between 2013 and 2023, under-educated or qualified workers relative to their occupation dropped from 37.9 percent to 33.4 percent. Overeducated or overqualified workers rose from 15.5 percent to 18.9 percent.
The report also indicates shifts from generative AI, reflecting that nearly 1 in 4 workers have some level of exposure in their tasks, which could be automated by AI. Additionally, 16.3 percent of workers are experiencing medium exposure while 7.5 percent are in high exposure, especially in high-skill occupations.
Uncertainty rewriting employment projections
Uncertainty has become the biggest contender for slowed job growth. Even in a time where global market outputs continue to expand and inflationary pressures ease, employers are becoming more cautious in hiring more workers, while still retaining their current employees. Geo-political disturbances combined with systematic transitions have altered the job landscape, creating unprecedented and unconsulted scenarios for enterprises globally.
Inflation is projected to fall across most countries, dropping to 4.4 percent in 2025 compared to 5.8 percent in 2024. This could be due to an overall contraction in economic expansion globally. The U.S. reciprocal tariffs in April have been deemed to have profoundly shifted global trading landscapes, leading to a synchronized slowdown multilaterally across all regions. These changes influence businesses to create new strategies to either combat against the new landscape, or bend to the set demands.
407 million people in 2025 are estimated to want a job, but currently do not have one, resulting in a greater occupancy of people taking lower quality or more vulnerable positions due to a lack of options.
The Asia-Pacific region accounts for the world’s fastest-growing economies, projecting a growth of 3.8 percent, compared to the Americas at 1.8 percent, and Europe and Central Asia at 1.5 percent. Yet from a 2023 estimate, 56 million jobs in Asia and the Pacific were found to be directly or indirectly linked through supply chains to final demand, the highest share out of any other region, creating the most volatility out of any other market in face of new tariffs: leaving employment in the hands of US demand for imports.
Employment growth sees its highest rates in Asia and the Pacific growing at 1.7 percent or 34 million, followed by Africa, with much lower projections seen by the Americas at 1.2 percent, and then Europe and central Asia at a mere 0.6 percent.
Economic growth and productivity amidst global setbacks
From 2014 to 2024, the global GDP grew by 33.5 percent, with the Asia-Pacific GDP growing up to 55 percent. This would reflect fast recoveries even amidst the economic downturns brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. The ILO report finds that economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region is found in productivity improvements rather than the creation of new jobs. Contrasting this, Africa and Arab states accompanied their economic growth by increased employment opportunities.
Informal employment remains slightly above formal employment, with a difference in growth rate by 1.1 percent, informal employment representing 2 billion people, 57.8 percent of all workers globally. Countries with high informal employment still saw large amounts of economic growth, with 85 percent of workers in Africa to be informally employed, expanding at 29.3 percent in the recent decade. However, in Asia and the Pacific, informal employment has been in decline of 11.3 percent over the past decade, reflecting on similar economic outcomes whether it be from formal or informal employment.
Labour income shares decline in Africa, the Americas, Europe, and Central Asia, and yet increase in Asia and the Pacific along with the Arab states across the same period of time. This suggests occupational dynamic changes in technology and market structures fractioned regionally across the globe. Due to this, the occupation composition – the type of jobs which flood the market – have changed throughout the years, mainly driven by different technological needs and the use of different skill sets.
Employment shares per country tend to look very different, usually depicted by GDP, as higher income countries will be less invested into markets like elementary occupations and agriculture, and more into professional, technical, and managerial sectors, reflecting greater interest in technology, business, and higher education.
Globally, more than half of workers are mismatched to their job, either being undereducated or overeducated, with the deficit being the largest in low-income countries, but this has been decreasing significantly over the past decade. Rising education levels seem to contribute to the share of appropriate qualifications for jobs.
An ever-changing landscape
Faster than any other time in human history, dynamics are changing. This report reflects on the volatility of the employment market globally, and how certain factors might correlate to a decrease or increase in one sector but could be completely different regionally: overall reflecting on a difference of technology and focus. Economies which are still agricultural, garment-based, and high-labor low-education see opposite methods to similar economic outcomes to countries which are prioritizing productivity, education, and technical skills, meaning there is no perfect formula to a stable global economic balance.
“The findings of this report on the employment landscape are sobering, but they can also act as a roadmap for the creation of decent jobs,” said ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngbo. “We can make a difference, and we can do so by strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and building inclusive labor markets to ensure that technological change benefits all. And we must do so with urgency, ambition, and solidarity.”
Mentioning the “need for inclusivity” is perhaps the most important factor when looking to expand the global economy. If each country is not going to tilt increasing in the same manner, each region needs to be addressed according to their needs and economic focus.
In February, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, said that governments were “shifting policy priorities”. “There are significant policy changes in the United States, in areas such as trade policy, taxation, public spending, immigration, and deregulation, with implications for the U.S. economy and the rest of the world…The combined impacts of possible policy changes are complex and still difficult to assess but will come into clearer view in the months ahead.” The acting director reflected on the current era of “uncertainty”, viewing the United States’ role in global trade to only be adding to that level of uncertainty, also displaying that each country’s policy creates different economic outcomes based on their own economic focuses.
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© Inter Press Service (2025) — All Rights Reserved. Original source: Inter Press Service
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