Which NFL Draft position has the highest hit rate? Nobody wants to be a fan of a team that walks away from the NFL Draft with a bust. The NFL is dictated by teams that consistently draft successfully, both by finding Pro Bowl talent in the first round, then adding valuable starters or contributors throughout the rest of the rounds. Miss on those picks and you squander opportunity, make too many of them and your team tumbles down the standings.“Bust” is a universal, albeit subjective phrase that’s too often applied to skill position players and rarely anybody else. Everyone knows the name “JaMarcus Russell,” but what about defensive tackle Justin Harrell who went No. 16 in the same class? Harrell managed to only start two games in his career and register 27 total tackles in three years before being out of the NFL. Harrell was an objectively worse player than Russell, but he wasn’t as damaging to the Green Bay Packers because of his position. Make no mistake, the man was still a bust.That’s what prompted me to dive into the last 15 years of NFL Draft data from the first round to look at the hits, busts, and everything in between at every position that has been selected. The goal was to find out which positions are safer, routinely netting more long-serving, consistent talent — and those which have had a tendency to fail more often.There’s no perfect metric to evaluate a player’s entire career, but perhaps the best we have is “Approximate Value (AV)” from Pro Football Reference. This uses a complex formula (found here) to quantify a player’s impact over the course of their career. From there, we can also look critically at drafted AV, which is the value added to the team that took the player. That’s how we avoid cases like Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, who were busts for the teams that drafted them — but had success elsewhere. In this way we can measure the draft fit.The final elements are the Mean AV, which removes the highest 5% and lowest 5% of players to ensure that guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen don’t skew the values too much, and finally the Pro Bowl Threshold AV — which averages out what a typical Pro Bowler at the position has as their AV. This is used as a yardstick because by nature AV isn’t designed to be a 1-to-1 comparison between positions.PositionNo. of picksTotal AVAverage AVMean AVPro Bowl ThresholdLinebacker2378834.2633.0435Quarterback49187838.332.7270Offensive Tackle64187829.328.4360Defensive Tackle41125430.627.9450Running Back2058323.227.6155Offensive Guard1849227.326.4350Cornerback5410832025.3435Center827534.424.535Tight End1330023.123.4540Safety2147822.821.7840Edge Rusher82200124.420.8845Wide Receiver65145622.42065There are really two factors you want to look at to determine the risk of a pick: Firstly, the Mean AV, which this table is sorted by. This is the average approximate value a position has given the team taking him over the last 15 years, and the second is comparing that to the Pro Bowl Threshold for the position. This gives a picture of the chance you’ll get a bust, as well as the chance you’ll get a Pro Bowl caliber talent.For example, the average linebacker selected in the first round is almost at the threshold to become a Pro Bowler. This position represents an exceptionally safe pick. We can debate the upside of box linebackers in the modern NFL, but the numbers bear out that if you take a first-round linebacker you’ll likely see success.Conversely, wide receiver is a minefield. Not only does the position rank lowest in terms of finding long-term success, but on average, less than a third of drafted 1st round receivers go on to become Pro Bowl-caliber talents. Quarterback and edge rushers are also risky positions to draft, with fewer than 50% of drafted 1st round talents going on to be Pro Bowl quality players.Perhaps the most fascinating position to look at here is cornerback. The hit rate in terms of finding Pro Bowl talent at corner is relatively high in terms of first-round success, but overall, the position grades lower than many others in career value. This could indicate that corners tend to have a smaller window of effective high-level play, which is an area to explore next — but this data didn’t look into the career length of different positions.There’s one large inference we can make from this data, and it seems to bear out when we look at NFL teams anecdotally: If you are trying to build a team from the ground up its best to invest picks in the trenches first. These have higher relative hit rates to build the foundation of a team. Meanwhile it’s incredibly risky for a bad team in need of a lot of help to roll the dice on a receiver or quarterback without the other pieces in place, because that does open the organization up to more busts — thereby setting them back further.When the dust settles, the NFL Draft remains an imprecise science. This data shows what has happened across the league over the years, but ultimately a talented front office and scouting department can buck league-wide trends to consistently find the effective players and build winning organizations. #NFL #Draft #position #highest #hit #rate

Which NFL Draft position has the highest hit rate?
Nobody wants to be a fan of a team that walks away from the NFL Draft with a bust. The NFL is dictated by teams that consistently draft successfully, both by finding Pro Bowl talent in the first round, then adding valuable starters or contributors throughout the rest of the rounds. Miss on those picks and you squander opportunity, make too many of them and your team tumbles down the standings.
“Bust” is a universal, albeit subjective phrase that’s too often applied to skill position players and rarely anybody else. Everyone knows the name “JaMarcus Russell,” but what about defensive tackle Justin Harrell who went No. 16 in the same class? Harrell managed to only start two games in his career and register 27 total tackles in three years before being out of the NFL. Harrell was an objectively worse player than Russell, but he wasn’t as damaging to the Green Bay Packers because of his position. Make no mistake, the man was still a bust.
That’s what prompted me to dive into the last 15 years of NFL Draft data from the first round to look at the hits, busts, and everything in between at every position that has been selected. The goal was to find out which positions are safer, routinely netting more long-serving, consistent talent — and those which have had a tendency to fail more often.
There’s no perfect metric to evaluate a player’s entire career, but perhaps the best we have is “Approximate Value (AV)” from Pro Football Reference. This uses a complex formula (found here) to quantify a player’s impact over the course of their career. From there, we can also look critically at drafted AV, which is the value added to the team that took the player. That’s how we avoid cases like Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, who were busts for the teams that drafted them — but had success elsewhere. In this way we can measure the draft fit.
The final elements are the Mean AV, which removes the highest 5% and lowest 5% of players to ensure that guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen don’t skew the values too much, and finally the Pro Bowl Threshold AV — which averages out what a typical Pro Bowler at the position has as their AV. This is used as a yardstick because by nature AV isn’t designed to be a 1-to-1 comparison between positions.
Position
No. of picks
Total AV
Average AV
Mean AV
Pro Bowl Threshold
Linebacker 23 788 34.26 33.04 35
Quarterback 49 1878 38.3 32.72 70
Offensive Tackle 64 1878 29.3 28.43 60
Defensive Tackle 41 1254 30.6 27.94 50
Running Back 20 583 23.2 27.61 55
Offensive Guard 18 492 27.3 26.43 50
Cornerback 54 1083 20 25.34 35
Center 8 275 34.4 24.5 35
Tight End 13 300 23.1 23.45 40
Safety 21 478 22.8 21.78 40
Edge Rusher 82 2001 24.4 20.88 45
Wide Receiver 65 1456 22.4 20 65
There are really two factors you want to look at to determine the risk of a pick: Firstly, the Mean AV, which this table is sorted by. This is the average approximate value a position has given the team taking him over the last 15 years, and the second is comparing that to the Pro Bowl Threshold for the position. This gives a picture of the chance you’ll get a bust, as well as the chance you’ll get a Pro Bowl caliber talent.
For example, the average linebacker selected in the first round is almost at the threshold to become a Pro Bowler. This position represents an exceptionally safe pick. We can debate the upside of box linebackers in the modern NFL, but the numbers bear out that if you take a first-round linebacker you’ll likely see success.
Conversely, wide receiver is a minefield. Not only does the position rank lowest in terms of finding long-term success, but on average, less than a third of drafted 1st round receivers go on to become Pro Bowl-caliber talents. Quarterback and edge rushers are also risky positions to draft, with fewer than 50% of drafted 1st round talents going on to be Pro Bowl quality players.
Perhaps the most fascinating position to look at here is cornerback. The hit rate in terms of finding Pro Bowl talent at corner is relatively high in terms of first-round success, but overall, the position grades lower than many others in career value. This could indicate that corners tend to have a smaller window of effective high-level play, which is an area to explore next — but this data didn’t look into the career length of different positions.
There’s one large inference we can make from this data, and it seems to bear out when we look at NFL teams anecdotally: If you are trying to build a team from the ground up its best to invest picks in the trenches first. These have higher relative hit rates to build the foundation of a team. Meanwhile it’s incredibly risky for a bad team in need of a lot of help to roll the dice on a receiver or quarterback without the other pieces in place, because that does open the organization up to more busts — thereby setting them back further.
When the dust settles, the NFL Draft remains an imprecise science. This data shows what has happened across the league over the years, but ultimately a talented front office and scouting department can buck league-wide trends to consistently find the effective players and build winning organizations.
#NFL #Draft #position #highest #hit #rate

Sports news nfl April 16, 2026

Nobody wants to be a fan of a team that walks away from the NFL Draft with a bust. The NFL is dictated by teams that consistently draft successfully, both by finding Pro Bowl talent in the first round, then adding valuable starters or contributors throughout the rest of the rounds. Miss on those picks and you squander opportunity, make too many of them and your team tumbles down the standings.

“Bust” is a universal, albeit subjective phrase that’s too often applied to skill position players and rarely anybody else. Everyone knows the name “JaMarcus Russell,” but what about defensive tackle Justin Harrell who went No. 16 in the same class? Harrell managed to only start two games in his career and register 27 total tackles in three years before being out of the NFL. Harrell was an objectively worse player than Russell, but he wasn’t as damaging to the Green Bay Packers because of his position. Make no mistake, the man was still a bust.

That’s what prompted me to dive into the last 15 years of NFL Draft data from the first round to look at the hits, busts, and everything in between at every position that has been selected. The goal was to find out which positions are safer, routinely netting more long-serving, consistent talent — and those which have had a tendency to fail more often.

There’s no perfect metric to evaluate a player’s entire career, but perhaps the best we have is “Approximate Value (AV)” from Pro Football Reference. This uses a complex formula (found here) to quantify a player’s impact over the course of their career. From there, we can also look critically at drafted AV, which is the value added to the team that took the player. That’s how we avoid cases like Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield, who were busts for the teams that drafted them — but had success elsewhere. In this way we can measure the draft fit.

The final elements are the Mean AV, which removes the highest 5% and lowest 5% of players to ensure that guys like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen don’t skew the values too much, and finally the Pro Bowl Threshold AV — which averages out what a typical Pro Bowler at the position has as their AV. This is used as a yardstick because by nature AV isn’t designed to be a 1-to-1 comparison between positions.

Position	No. of picks	Total AV	Average AV	Mean AV	Pro Bowl Threshold
Linebacker	23	788	34.26	33.04	35
Quarterback	49	1878	38.3	32.72	70
Offensive Tackle	64	1878	29.3	28.43	60
Defensive Tackle	41	1254	30.6	27.94	50
Running Back	20	583	23.2	27.61	55
Offensive Guard	18	492	27.3	26.43	50
Cornerback	54	1083	20	25.34	35
Center	8	275	34.4	24.5	35
Tight End	13	300	23.1	23.45	40
Safety	21	478	22.8	21.78	40
Edge Rusher	82	2001	24.4	20.88	45
Wide Receiver	65	1456	22.4	20	65

There are really two factors you want to look at to determine the risk of a pick: Firstly, the Mean AV, which this table is sorted by. This is the average approximate value a position has given the team taking him over the last 15 years, and the second is comparing that to the Pro Bowl Threshold for the position. This gives a picture of the chance you’ll get a bust, as well as the chance you’ll get a Pro Bowl caliber talent.

For example, the average linebacker selected in the first round is almost at the threshold to become a Pro Bowler. This position represents an exceptionally safe pick. We can debate the upside of box linebackers in the modern NFL, but the numbers bear out that if you take a first-round linebacker you’ll likely see success.

Conversely, wide receiver is a minefield. Not only does the position rank lowest in terms of finding long-term success, but on average, less than a third of drafted 1st round receivers go on to become Pro Bowl-caliber talents. Quarterback and edge rushers are also risky positions to draft, with fewer than 50% of drafted 1st round talents going on to be Pro Bowl quality players.

Perhaps the most fascinating position to look at here is cornerback. The hit rate in terms of finding Pro Bowl talent at corner is relatively high in terms of first-round success, but overall, the position grades lower than many others in career value. This could indicate that corners tend to have a smaller window of effective high-level play, which is an area to explore next — but this data didn’t look into the career length of different positions.

There’s one large inference we can make from this data, and it seems to bear out when we look at NFL teams anecdotally: If you are trying to build a team from the ground up its best to invest picks in the trenches first. These have higher relative hit rates to build the foundation of a team. Meanwhile it’s incredibly risky for a bad team in need of a lot of help to roll the dice on a receiver or quarterback without the other pieces in place, because that does open the organization up to more busts — thereby setting them back further.

When the dust settles, the NFL Draft remains an imprecise science. This data shows what has happened across the league over the years, but ultimately a talented front office and scouting department can buck league-wide trends to consistently find the effective players and build winning organizations.

Source link
#NFL #Draft #position #highest #hit #rate

Tag nfl

They say age comes for everyone eventually, and the 2026 edition of the Indian Premier League is proving that to be ruthlessly true. Rohit Sharma will miss Mumbai Indians’ clash against Punjab Kings at the Wankhede Stadium, marking a rare occasion that the 38-year-old will be absent from the five-time champion’s top-order.

Rohit is not the only one facing time on the sidelines. The seemingly untiring Virat Kohli was forced to play as an Impact Player in Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s match against Lucknow Super Giants, while M.S. Dhoni – the famed lynchpin of Chennai Super Kings’ middle-order – has missed the side’s first five matches of the season.

The stalwarts of a generation of the IPL are now being confronted with the realities of playing the tournament while not riding the conveyor belt of international cricket year-round.

According to Ramji Srinivasan, former India and Mumbai Indians strength and conditioning coach, the physical challenge of the IPL is primarily about rest and recovery. “The challenge is more on recovery than the fitness aspect,” he told Sportstar. “The fitness aspect is more about tiring and traveling from one place to another.

Train smarter, not harder — Ramji Srinivasan decodes how IPL’s OG superstars can stave off injuries They say age comes for everyone eventually, and the 2026 edition of the Indian Premier League is proving that to be ruthlessly true. Rohit Sharma will miss Mumbai Indians’ clash against Punjab Kings at the Wankhede Stadium, marking a rare occasion that the 38-year-old will be absent from the five-time champion’s top-order.Rohit is not the only one facing time on the sidelines. The seemingly untiring Virat Kohli was forced to play as an Impact Player in Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s match against Lucknow Super Giants, while M.S. Dhoni – the famed lynchpin of Chennai Super Kings’ middle-order – has missed the side’s first five matches of the season.The stalwarts of a generation of the IPL are now being confronted with the realities of playing the tournament while not riding the conveyor belt of international cricket year-round.According to Ramji Srinivasan, former India and Mumbai Indians strength and conditioning coach, the physical challenge of the IPL is primarily about rest and recovery. “The challenge is more on recovery than the fitness aspect,” he told Sportstar. “The fitness aspect is more about tiring and traveling from one place to another. Virat Kohli played as an Impact Player due to a kneeinjury during RCB’s match against LSG.
| Photo Credit:
K. Murali Kumar

Virat Kohli played as an Impact Player due to a kneeinjury during RCB’s match against LSG.
| Photo Credit:
K. Murali Kumar
“The matches finish by 11:00-11:30PM, by the time they start from the ground, it will be around 12.30-1:00AM. The next morning, if they have to travel again, everything changes again. It’s about how you manage your body with proper recovery and nutrition,” Srinivasan said.The challenge of dealing with a hectic schedule is one that becomes tougher with age. “After 30 and beyond, the body starts to slow down physiologically. It is natural. So, what they need to do is train smart rather than train hard,” Srinivasan said.According to Srinivasan, age does have some benefit to doing so. “By this time you know your body better, when you need to push, when you need to pull yourself back, when you need to recover, what type of recovery you need to adhere to.“What you are adhering to when you are in your 20s and early 30s may not be as pertinent now, you know. Your body is changing every year, and you need to adapt to a particular stimulus,” he explained.
“You need to be very specialised according to the individual. What suits Virat will not suit Rohit or MS. So, it has to be highly bespoke, just because it is successful with one player need not be successful with any other players.”Ramji SrinivasanSrinivasan suggested a focus on cognitive and neuromuscular training, an approach he likens to that of a Formula One driver, which focuses on training the cognitive skills of the player.“It’s all about the neural training pathway because cognition is what your eye perceives, and how your body reacts. For example, you see a ball trajectory coming in, how your body reacts to that particular impulse. It can be reactive or it can be proactive.“You focus on how you train those muscle groups, the smaller and the finer muscle rather than the gross muscles. That is how you get precision, and they are the thing which loses the neural response in the long run if you don’t train them.”An inevitable part of aging as a player is the arrival of injuries, as the likes of Rohit and Kohli are experiencing now. While niggles are unavoidable for top-level athletes, the focus, Srinivasan said, should be on being proactive about identifying the underlying causes and treating them quickly.“The idea is that preventive medicine is better than curative, and if you cannot prevent it, your curative measure has to be quicker,” he said.“Any sportsperson will have niggles, but you have to identify the contributing factors. When you are doing.your assessment and screening you will know there are probabilities, especially as you get older. So if it is a hamstring injury, why has it happened, is it because of dehydration, or because of lack of fitness, or because of overstretching?”He also emphasised that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. The training methodology for players like Kohli or Rohit, who have recently stepped off the Test and T20I bandwagons but still play a single format, will have a different approach to a player like Dhoni, for whom IPL is the only remaining form of professional cricket. Rohit Sharma suffered an injury to his left hamstring that ruled him out of the match against PBKS.
| Photo Credit:
Emmanual Yogini

Rohit Sharma suffered an injury to his left hamstring that ruled him out of the match against PBKS.
| Photo Credit:
Emmanual Yogini
“When you are young and robust, if you eat iron you will be able to digest it. In the thirties even if you eat food it won’t digest,” he explained with a laugh. “So you need to be very specialised according to the individual. What suits Virat will not suit Rohit or MS. So, it has to be highly bespoke, just because it is successful with one player need not be successful with any other players.“There has to be progression in anything. Suddenly coming and sprinting it’s not going to help you however fit you are. When you are in a competition your body and mind responds differently to when you are training.“The essence is that the professional needs to understand when you are in a competition there are a lot of things happening which are not happening during your training. So, the idea is to prepare yourself through the training, it’s a simulation.“You cannot do that because there are so many variables. But being very close to the reality in your training module really helps. For example, when you are in your 20s, you may take two weeks to get into the groove. When you are in your 30s, it may take three weeks. When you are in your 40s, it may take a month and a half.”Published on Apr 16, 2026 #Train #smarter #harder #Ramji #Srinivasan #decodes #IPLs #superstars #stave #injuries

Virat Kohli played as an Impact Player due to a kneeinjury during RCB’s match against LSG. | Photo Credit: K. Murali Kumar

“The matches finish by 11:00-11:30PM, by the time they start from the ground, it will be around 12.30-1:00AM. The next morning, if they have to travel again, everything changes again. It’s about how you manage your body with proper recovery and nutrition,” Srinivasan said.

The challenge of dealing with a hectic schedule is one that becomes tougher with age. “After 30 and beyond, the body starts to slow down physiologically. It is natural. So, what they need to do is train smart rather than train hard,” Srinivasan said.

According to Srinivasan, age does have some benefit to doing so. “By this time you know your body better, when you need to push, when you need to pull yourself back, when you need to recover, what type of recovery you need to adhere to.

“What you are adhering to when you are in your 20s and early 30s may not be as pertinent now, you know. Your body is changing every year, and you need to adapt to a particular stimulus,” he explained.

“You need to be very specialised according to the individual. What suits Virat will not suit Rohit or MS. So, it has to be highly bespoke, just because it is successful with one player need not be successful with any other players.”Ramji Srinivasan

Srinivasan suggested a focus on cognitive and neuromuscular training, an approach he likens to that of a Formula One driver, which focuses on training the cognitive skills of the player.

“It’s all about the neural training pathway because cognition is what your eye perceives, and how your body reacts. For example, you see a ball trajectory coming in, how your body reacts to that particular impulse. It can be reactive or it can be proactive.

“You focus on how you train those muscle groups, the smaller and the finer muscle rather than the gross muscles. That is how you get precision, and they are the thing which loses the neural response in the long run if you don’t train them.”

An inevitable part of aging as a player is the arrival of injuries, as the likes of Rohit and Kohli are experiencing now. While niggles are unavoidable for top-level athletes, the focus, Srinivasan said, should be on being proactive about identifying the underlying causes and treating them quickly.

“The idea is that preventive medicine is better than curative, and if you cannot prevent it, your curative measure has to be quicker,” he said.

“Any sportsperson will have niggles, but you have to identify the contributing factors. When you are doing.your assessment and screening you will know there are probabilities, especially as you get older. So if it is a hamstring injury, why has it happened, is it because of dehydration, or because of lack of fitness, or because of overstretching?”

He also emphasised that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. The training methodology for players like Kohli or Rohit, who have recently stepped off the Test and T20I bandwagons but still play a single format, will have a different approach to a player like Dhoni, for whom IPL is the only remaining form of professional cricket.

Rohit Sharma suffered an injury to his left hamstring that ruled him out of the match against PBKS. | Photo Credit: Emmanual Yogini

“When you are young and robust, if you eat iron you will be able to digest it. In the thirties even if you eat food it won’t digest,” he explained with a laugh. “So you need to be very specialised according to the individual. What suits Virat will not suit Rohit or MS. So, it has to be highly bespoke, just because it is successful with one player need not be successful with any other players.

“There has to be progression in anything. Suddenly coming and sprinting it’s not going to help you however fit you are. When you are in a competition your body and mind responds differently to when you are training.

“The essence is that the professional needs to understand when you are in a competition there are a lot of things happening which are not happening during your training. So, the idea is to prepare yourself through the training, it’s a simulation.

“You cannot do that because there are so many variables. But being very close to the reality in your training module really helps. For example, when you are in your 20s, you may take two weeks to get into the groove. When you are in your 30s, it may take three weeks. When you are in your 40s, it may take a month and a half.”

Published on Apr 16, 2026

Position

No. of picks

Total AV

Average AV

Mean AV

Pro Bowl Threshold