There are myriad factors to balance when making a high pick in the NFL Draft. It’s not simply about just selecting a guy who proved it in college football, but also identifying the rough parts to someone’s game that can be ironed out. Conversely, you can’t go too far down the “we can fix him” rabbit hole, or you get a player destined to be a bust. Read our latest mock draft here.

That leads to a fascinating draft dichotomy. Play it too safe with a pick, select someone with a low ceiling, and you get Mac Jones. Go too risky, bank everything on upside, and you get a Top 10 receiver like John Ross, who ends up doing nothing in his NFL career. Still, some of the biggest stars in NFL history came out of being boom/bust prospects. Today we isolate the biggest boom/bust players projected as 1st-round picks from the 2026 draft class, their ceilings, and perhaps more importantly, their floors.

Ty Simpson, QB — Alabama

When the dust settles, it’s difficult to imagine that Simpson won’t go in the first round simply because there aren’t many quality quarterbacks in this class. He’s also one of the biggest boom/bust prospects in this class, simply because we don’t have a great deal of information to pull from. Not only does he not have a lot of starts under his belt, but a concerning injury history that could indicate fragility.

There are some really good parts to Simpson’s game. He shows good timing and anticipation on throws, processes plays quickly, and makes good decisions pre-snap. The downside is that he has limited arm strength to get the ball over linebackers, and he doesn’t have ideal NFL size for the position, meaning he can’t simply ignore defenders by seeing over them — and instead will need to adjust.

These traits combine to mean that Simpson’s upside could be someone like Bryce Young, and the floor is that his size and questionable arm, paired with injuries, means he’s on the level of Tua Tagovailoa. The irony of them all being from Alabama is purely coincidental.

Kenyon Sadiq, TE — Oregon

There is no doubt that Sadiq is going to be the first tight end off the board in 2026 due to his incredible physical traits and solid red zone production in 2025 for the Ducks. That doesn’t mean he’s a safe prospect.

Sadiq is essentially a one-trick pony, but it’s a hell of a trick. An incredible receiver, he can run the entire route tree and has breakaway speed to easily elude linebackers, and a handful of defensive backs as well — where his strength can become a difference maker.

The problem: Size. At 6’3” he’s a smaller-than-average tight end, with a lot of defensive backs getting bigger in the NFL — putting him on parity at a position that traditionally leans on size mismatches. Sadiq is also a non-factor as a blocker, limiting him very specifically to a receiver role. Being a receiver-only is okay, as this was largely what led to Colston Loveland being a top pick in 2025 — but he had an extra three inches of height.

There’s a precedent for a receiving tight end of Sadiq’s size and skillset: Vernon Davis. There is a similar top-end ability here to become a serious difference maker in the NFL and a primary threat. However, if any of this falls apart, his floor is Dalton Kindaid — who is a perfectly fine receiving tighr end, but not worthy of a Top 15 pick.

Chris Brazzell, WR — Tennessee

Right now Brazzell sits in the high third tier of receivers who could easily sneak into the back-end of the first round, and his story is one of the simplest stories in NFL bust history.

Brazzell is 6’4” and runs a 4.37 in the 40. That’s enough to get teams salivating, and it really hasn’t worked well before. Sprinkle in the fact that his experience comes from the Vols’ veer-and-shoot offense, which hasn’t translated well to the NFL and there’s a recipe for bust here.

Still, you just don’t find receivers with that size and speed very often. D.K. Metcalf had shades of the athletic freak without a well-rounded skillset, and that’s the kind of prospect he could be without a direct analog. The downsides are well pronounced with Ted Ginn Jr, Troy Williamson, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all being examples of guys who didn’t meet the hype.

David Bailey, EDGE — Texas Tech

This might be one of the highest-ranked boom-0r-bust prospects from the 2026 class who will likely go in the Top 5 of the draft. The appeal of David Bailey is really simple: He’s a ridiculously athletic edge rusher who is explosive, fluid, has pass rush moves, and really has everything you want from an edge rusher.

The high-end comps here are clear and there’s hype that Bailey could be the next Micah Parsons. There’s one massive problem with that comparison, though: Bailey doesn’t show the toughness on film that Parsons did at Penn State. He’s weaker against the run at this point in his career than Parsons was, and Micah wasn’t a great run stopper to begin with.

This means there’s a real bust risk for Bailey in terms of being a three-down edge. If he amounts to nothing more than a third-down pass rush specialist, he’ll be like K’Lavon Chaisson — which isn’t terrible, but unquestionably not worth a Top 10 pick.