Over the past few seasons, Tarik Skubal has been one of the best, if not the best, pitchers in the sport. Since 2023, Skubal has the second-lowest ERA among pitchers with at least 50 starts and ranks 9th in total strikeouts, despite having 13 fewer starts than every pitcher above him on that list. The two Cy Youngs are a culmination of his continued dominance, but now his upcoming free-agent decision looms large for the Detroit Tigers.

Skubal is a Scott Boras client. If you know anything about Boras guys, it’s not common for any of them to take team-friendly deals to stay in smaller markets, so this could very well be his final season in Detroit.

At this moment, the Tigers are 44-52, good for 4th in the AL Central, but are still only 3.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot. Detroit closed out the first half of the regular season strong, going 9-3, and got as close as 4.5 games of the Central division.

In a normal year, the season would be all but over for the Tigers, but fortunately they’re playing in one of the worst American Leagues we’ve ever seen. The trade deadline is August 3rd, so Detroit has five series to decide whether to make a playoff push or sell. Only one of those series is against a team over .500, and three of the other four series are against the three worst teams in the American League.

Detroit isn’t out of it yet

Detroit is finally getting healthier, and a playoff push isn’t out of the question, but that doesn’t make them a contender. Skubal and Casey Mize make one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball, but the lineup is terrible.

Last season blinded Detroit to a flawed lineup. Most of the lineup outperformed their expected stats and have plummeted back to Earth this year. Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, and Dillon Dingler are a very solid top of the order, and Gelyber Torres should return from injury soon, but I’m just not very sold on this team.

The return you can get on a guy like Skubal can change the long-term direction of your organization. Mason Miller was dealt at the deadline for four players who are now the first, fourth, and twelfth-ranked players in the Athletics farm system. Skubal would only be a rental, but if you could land a top 10-20 prospect in the sport, I think you have to do it.

Unless Detroit is going to shock the world and pay Skubal’s massive extension, I think the Tigers should start preparing for a world without their ace. This team’s not strong enough to contend and will only set themselves back if they hold on to Skubal.