To call the 2025-26 Dallas Stars season a disappointment would be one of the biggest understatements in hockey after their crushing opening round loss to the Wild on Thursday night. It’s left the team needing to make critical decisions this offseason which will decide whether or not Dallas can remain a contender, or takes a significant step backwards in the future.

So, what exactly went wrong with the Stars this season? Everything on paper pointed to this being a Stanley Cup caliber team, likely to compete with the Colorado Avalanche for the best in the West — and during the regular season they did for the most part, but as the playoffs commenced we saw the holes in the lineup open up, holes which aren’t easy to patch.

The trade for Mikko Rantanen made all the sense in the world last year, with the high-scoring Finn appearing to be the superstar forward they needed. Adding Rantanen to one of the highest-scoring teams in hockey should have been a boon — but the deal hasn’t really worked out.

The problem hasn’t been Rantanen (though he’s understandably the scapegoat), and more how Rantanen is playing inside the Stars system. The issue is that he’s no longer the elite goal scorer he was in Colorado without Nathan McKinnon’s puck distribution in the middle, which has forced him into being a passer from the wing. Rantanen doesn’t have a place on the top line with Wyatt Johnson being a puck-dominant center, and Jason Robertson being the go-to finisher. Throwing him on the second line hasn’t worked either, with Matt Duchene being hurt, and regressing in significant ways this past season.

This is even more problematic in looking at what the Stars gave up in the Rantanen deal. Logan Stankoven was more or less the throw in prospect to get the deal done, and he’s emerged as the Carolina Hurricanes’ key second-line center — exactly what the Stars need now.

We have a team that is dangerously top-line heavy. All the success Dallas had in the regular season was due to that front pairing of Johnson and Robertson to do the heavy lifting, with Miro Heiskanen quarterbacking things from the blue line, but the Wild were able to drag the lines deep and beat the Stars with depth.

This brings us to the toughest decision the team has to make: Jason Robertson.

The Stars are not in a good place when it comes to the salary cap. The team is projected to have $11.1M in space for the upcoming season, with a three key players set to hit the market.

It’s here the soul-searching begins, because they have to make an impossible choice. Jamie Benn is likely gone, which is fine, but the Robertson/Bourque decision is brutal. They currently do not have the money to meet the rumored salary demands of Robertson, who reportedly is looking for north of the $12M AAV that Mikko Rantanen is making — which is fair coming off a 96-point season.

Bourque is also due a significant pay raise, and could be a real risk of being poached in free agency.

The logical decision is to let Robertson walk and re-sign Bourque. Robertson isn’t a play-driver, he’s not strong on the forecheck, and his defensive contributions are resigned to stick play. The issue in applying this logic is that it’s impossible to imagine a scenario where the Stars are better without Robertson, because he is their best scorer.

It would likely necessitate moving Rantanen back to the top line, but it’s already been established that he’s not great with Johnson at center. It’s all a bit of a mess. The team might have to pray that Tyler Seguin retires to open the space to retain Robertson, which then means likely losing Bourque.

Overpaying mediocrity in goal

The other huge part of the Stars problems is Jake Oettinger, who was their key free agent from a year ago. Dallas decided to retain Oettinger and make him one of the five highest-paid goaltenders in hockey, and he was not good this season at all.

Oettinger finished the season at 0.899 SV%, with 2.59 GA — alarmingly, he also only had 31 quality starts in 54 games, barely above the league-average on the season. It’s just not good enough for a top-five paid player at his position.

There isn’t anything the Stars can do with Oettinger but pray he returns to form. The free agent contract is haunting them, and he’s inked for SEVEN more seasons.

What can the Stars even be in 2026-27?

The best hope is running it back, which wasn’t good enough to make a playoff impact this year. They can keep the top of their core, losing more depth in the process — or decide to part ways with Robertson, take a step back, and try to find a path forward. That would mean taking a mulligan on the season to correct some of their cap issues, but that isn’t conducive to try and take advantage of Mikko Rantanen’s prime.

This was more or less a make-or-break year for the Dallas Stars, and they broke in the first round. What happens next is anyone’s guess.