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College Football Playoff upset pick: Which lower seed has best chance to win?

College Football Playoff upset pick: Which lower seed has best chance to win?

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff field was officially set on Sunday and we now know the 12 teams that will be vying to hold up the big, gold trophy in Miami on January 19.

We didn’t get any upsets in last year’s playoff until the quarterfinals, meaning all of the lower seeds got quickly bounced out of the bracket in the first round. We only have a one-year sample size for this format and have yet to see a a true underdog take the field by storm like we see happen all the time in March Madness. Could this happen this year?

We’ll take a look at which of the lower-seeded teams have the best chance at stringing together one upset after another on their way to the CFP title game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. We’ll define a lower seed as one of the teams in the 9-12 range, a.k.a teams that have to go on the road to someone else’s house in the first round of the playoffs.

First-round matchup: @ Oregon

Thanks to the ACC’s tiebreaker chaos, James Madison was able to slip into the College Football Playoff bracket as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion and is one of two Group of Five teams represented in the field. The Dukes stormed right through the Sun Belt in just their fourth season of FBS, posting an 12-1 record with an average scoring margin of 20.3 points per game while ranking 25th in both offensive and defensive SP+. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III and linebacker Trent Hendrick both took home Sun Belt Player of the Year honors on their respective sides of the ball and head coach Bob Chesney is a rising name in the sport who will be leading UCLA next season.

Unfortunately for JMU, it has the roughest path to a championship out of every team in the entire bracket. Oregon is extremely tough to crack at Autzen Stadium with the program only suffering three home losses during Dan Lanning’s four-year stint in Eugene. Even if the Dukes were to clear that gigantic hurdle, they’d be immediately met with Texas Tech and their buzzsaw defense in the Orange Bowl, followed by a potential matchup against No. 1 Indiana in the Peach Bowl. And all of that is before the national title game in Miami. It’s a daunting gauntlet, but hey, they are one of four programs in this year’s field that can say that they’ve actually raised a national title banner in the last decade.

First-round matchup: @ Ole Miss

The other Group of Five team in the field is Tulane, who checks in at No. 11 after defeating North Texas in the American Championship Game. The Green Wave have been one of the best G5 programs this decade and were able to post an 11-2 record with BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff leading the offense with over 3,400 yards total yards of offense and 30 touchdowns on the year. Florida-bound head coach Jon Sumrall is a defensive specialist and that was reflected by the Wave finishing the year tied for eighth in takaways with 24.

Tulane is in a unique position as their first-round game will be a rematch against Ole Miss, a team that cooked them in a 45-10 blowout in Oxford back on September 20. Circumstances have obviously changed since then with the Rebels now under the leadership of Pete Golding following Lane Kiffin’s departure to LSU. That *could* create an opening for Tulane to get some redemption for a potential upset and it would earn the program a trip to the Sugar Bowl to meet Georgia. The Wave would literally be right at home in New Orleans for that game but keep in mind, Sumrall is heading to Florida next year and there’s nothing that Kirby Smart would love more than to demoralize Gator fans by embarrassing their future head coach before he even steps on the sidelines in Gainesville.

First-round matchup: @ Texas A&M

Miami’s CFP chances hung in the balance with the ACC’s tiebreaker shenanigans and the thought that they’d be left out of the field entirely in favor of Notre Dame. However, the committee did decide that the “U” was worthy of that honor and they will be heading to the dance after a 10-2 campaign. The Hurricanes assembled an impressive roster in the offseason and were looking like one of the top teams in the country early on with a season-opening victory against Notre Dame and a blowout win over G5 contender USF. ACC Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Bain Jr. was dominant and could potentially be a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft while wide receiver Malachi Toney broke out as one of the best freshman receivers in the entire country. Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck also proved to be mostly effective, but did have stinkers like his multi-interception performances in losses to Louisville and SMU.

At No. 10, Miami is the team that could be the true agent of chaos in the postseason. Mario Cristobal’s team was built to matchup physically with their first-round opponent Texas A&M and we just saw what a team that ranks in the top 10 of defensive SP+ can do against Ohio State. A potential matchup against Georgia in the semifinals would be tough considering that the UGA staff knows all of Beck’s weaknesses but if they clear that hurdle, the program’s first national title in 24 years would be well within reach.

First-round matchup: @ Oklahoma

Alabama is the only three-loss team in the entire field and its inclusion is was the biggest point of controversy coming out of Selection Sunday. The Crimson Tide stumbled out the gate with a 14-point loss to Florida State that aged horribly as time went on, but a subsequent eight-game win streak included a huge road win over Georgia that put them right back near the top of the rankings. They ended up making the SEC Championship Game with a 10-2 regular season record, but as we saw on Saturday, they were annihilated by three touchdowns in the rematch against the Bulldogs. The Tide were solid throughout the year, but never truly dominant, and that was reflected by the fact that they had to squeak by subpar SEC foes like South Carolina and Auburn down the stretch. Their most glaring weakness was an alarming lack of a rushing attack as they ranked near the bottom of the nation with 116.2 rushing yards per game on just 3.56 yards per carry.

Kalen DeBoer’s group was just outclassed in one of their rematches from the regular season and they will have another against an Oklahoma team that just beat them 23-21 in Tuscaloosa on the strength of defense and special teams. Alabama will have an extremely tough challenge on their hands going to Norman and if they were to survive then, then it’s a potential date with two more boa constrictor units in Indiana and Texas Tech. Even if running back Jam Miller is healthy for the playoffs, they’re going to need a tremendous boost in ground firepower if they want to make it to Miami.

Lower-ranked team with best CFP Title shot: Miami

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#College #Football #Playoff #upset #pick #seed #chance #win

It’s not that Simpson is bad, or even that the Rams taking him wasn’t on the cards. In fact, for a long time there was speculation the team would take Simpson in the 1st round, just at No. 29, until Los Angeles traded the pick for Trent McDuffie. The confusion around the selection is aimed more at the fact that taking a quarterback to prepare for the eventuality of Matthew Stafford’s retirement was too cute, and too smart for its own good — especially when the Rams are a team built to win right now.

This only got worse following the draft when coach Sean McVay looked flat-out annoyed while hearing GM Les Snead wax poetic about Ty Simpson.

“We’ve talked about the importance of Jimmy [Garoppolo]. To be able to add somebody that you can evaluate a body of work where he was asked to play the position and a lot of things that do translate in terms of concepts, reading with his feet, some of the different things in the drop back in the play-action game and the movement game. There are a lot of things that [Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan] Grubb did that’s very similar to how we operate, so it made it an easier evaluation to be able to say, ‘Alright, what would that look like if he did translate it to our level?’”

Here’s another clip from McVay’s post-draft presser:

The most generous reading of these comments is that McVay is fine with the pick. His verbiage is more akin to how coaches talk about day three picks, not someone you take No. 13 overall. This is especially notable considering the board at the time, which could have landed the Rams someone like Makai Lemon or Kenyon Sadiq, either of whom would have bolstered the Rams passing attack — or even safety Dillon Thieneman, who would have been an upgrade to the secondary.

It’s going to be at least two years before we learn whether or not picking Simpson was a genius move or not, but there are more questions about the pick after people learned that Snead had personal entanglements with the Simpson family.

It’s only natural to question whether or not Snead had tunnel vision for Simpson throughout this process. One would think that a general manager and head coach’s vision naturally aligns, but this is a case where it might not. Snead’s job is to be more forward-looking at the overall health of the franchise, while McVay’s is to get the most out of the guys he has in front of him. There very well could have been friction about seeing the Falcons’ pick (which they obtained in 2025) as a means to land a quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll otherwise be picking in the back-end of the 20s, or hopefully 32 — while McVay didn’t want to put the cart in front of the horse, and instead get someone that would help prevent the Rams from flaming out in the playoffs.

What makes this all so interesting is that the Rams are typically an organization held up as a paragon of vision and smart decision-making. Selecting Simpson could end up being genius, or a bizarrely desperate move to get a second-round QB talent too early in the draft, just to correct a problem that doesn’t exist yet.

When Simpson does eventually take over for the Rams at QB, he’ll have barely played football at all since leaving high school:

One thing is certain: If the Rams fail to make it to the Super Bowl this season, then everyone will be looking at who could have helped the team with this No. 13 pick — and it won’t be Ty Simpson.

#Rams #shocking #Simpson #pick #pissed #Sean #McVay #heres">The Rams’ shocking Ty Simpson pick might have pissed off Sean McVay, and here’s why  There were a lot of surprises in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. The Titans taking Carnell Tate at No. 4? Unexpected. Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain, and Makai Lemon all sliding? Shocking — but it was what the Los Angeles Rams did with the No. 13 overall pick that was truly jaw-dropping, selecting Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to be their signal caller of the future. We gave the pick a C+ grade.It’s not that Simpson is bad, or even that the Rams taking him wasn’t on the cards. In fact, for a long time there was speculation the team would take Simpson in the 1st round, just at No. 29, until Los Angeles traded the pick for Trent McDuffie. The confusion around the selection is aimed more at the fact that taking a quarterback to prepare for the eventuality of Matthew Stafford’s retirement was too cute, and too smart for its own good — especially when the Rams are a team built to win right now.This only got worse following the draft when coach Sean McVay looked flat-out annoyed while hearing GM Les Snead wax poetic about Ty Simpson.“We’ve talked about the importance of Jimmy [Garoppolo]. To be able to add somebody that you can evaluate a body of work where he was asked to play the position and a lot of things that do translate in terms of concepts, reading with his feet, some of the different things in the drop back in the play-action game and the movement game. There are a lot of things that [Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan] Grubb did that’s very similar to how we operate, so it made it an easier evaluation to be able to say, ‘Alright, what would that look like if he did translate it to our level?’”Here’s another clip from McVay’s post-draft presser:The most generous reading of these comments is that McVay is fine with the pick. His verbiage is more akin to how coaches talk about day three picks, not someone you take No. 13 overall. This is especially notable considering the board at the time, which could have landed the Rams someone like Makai Lemon or Kenyon Sadiq, either of whom would have bolstered the Rams passing attack — or even safety Dillon Thieneman, who would have been an upgrade to the secondary.It’s going to be at least two years before we learn whether or not picking Simpson was a genius move or not, but there are more questions about the pick after people learned that Snead had personal entanglements with the Simpson family.It’s only natural to question whether or not Snead had tunnel vision for Simpson throughout this process. One would think that a general manager and head coach’s vision naturally aligns, but this is a case where it might not. Snead’s job is to be more forward-looking at the overall health of the franchise, while McVay’s is to get the most out of the guys he has in front of him. There very well could have been friction about seeing the Falcons’ pick (which they obtained in 2025) as a means to land a quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll otherwise be picking in the back-end of the 20s, or hopefully 32 — while McVay didn’t want to put the cart in front of the horse, and instead get someone that would help prevent the Rams from flaming out in the playoffs.What makes this all so interesting is that the Rams are typically an organization held up as a paragon of vision and smart decision-making. Selecting Simpson could end up being genius, or a bizarrely desperate move to get a second-round QB talent too early in the draft, just to correct a problem that doesn’t exist yet.When Simpson does eventually take over for the Rams at QB, he’ll have barely played football at all since leaving high school:One thing is certain: If the Rams fail to make it to the Super Bowl this season, then everyone will be looking at who could have helped the team with this No. 13 pick — and it won’t be Ty Simpson.  #Rams #shocking #Simpson #pick #pissed #Sean #McVay #heres

a lot of surprises in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. The Titans taking Carnell Tate at No. 4? Unexpected. Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain, and Makai Lemon all sliding? Shocking — but it was what the Los Angeles Rams did with the No. 13 overall pick that was truly jaw-dropping, selecting Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to be their signal caller of the future. We gave the pick a C+ grade.

It’s not that Simpson is bad, or even that the Rams taking him wasn’t on the cards. In fact, for a long time there was speculation the team would take Simpson in the 1st round, just at No. 29, until Los Angeles traded the pick for Trent McDuffie. The confusion around the selection is aimed more at the fact that taking a quarterback to prepare for the eventuality of Matthew Stafford’s retirement was too cute, and too smart for its own good — especially when the Rams are a team built to win right now.

This only got worse following the draft when coach Sean McVay looked flat-out annoyed while hearing GM Les Snead wax poetic about Ty Simpson.

“We’ve talked about the importance of Jimmy [Garoppolo]. To be able to add somebody that you can evaluate a body of work where he was asked to play the position and a lot of things that do translate in terms of concepts, reading with his feet, some of the different things in the drop back in the play-action game and the movement game. There are a lot of things that [Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan] Grubb did that’s very similar to how we operate, so it made it an easier evaluation to be able to say, ‘Alright, what would that look like if he did translate it to our level?’”

Here’s another clip from McVay’s post-draft presser:

The most generous reading of these comments is that McVay is fine with the pick. His verbiage is more akin to how coaches talk about day three picks, not someone you take No. 13 overall. This is especially notable considering the board at the time, which could have landed the Rams someone like Makai Lemon or Kenyon Sadiq, either of whom would have bolstered the Rams passing attack — or even safety Dillon Thieneman, who would have been an upgrade to the secondary.

It’s going to be at least two years before we learn whether or not picking Simpson was a genius move or not, but there are more questions about the pick after people learned that Snead had personal entanglements with the Simpson family.

It’s only natural to question whether or not Snead had tunnel vision for Simpson throughout this process. One would think that a general manager and head coach’s vision naturally aligns, but this is a case where it might not. Snead’s job is to be more forward-looking at the overall health of the franchise, while McVay’s is to get the most out of the guys he has in front of him. There very well could have been friction about seeing the Falcons’ pick (which they obtained in 2025) as a means to land a quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll otherwise be picking in the back-end of the 20s, or hopefully 32 — while McVay didn’t want to put the cart in front of the horse, and instead get someone that would help prevent the Rams from flaming out in the playoffs.

What makes this all so interesting is that the Rams are typically an organization held up as a paragon of vision and smart decision-making. Selecting Simpson could end up being genius, or a bizarrely desperate move to get a second-round QB talent too early in the draft, just to correct a problem that doesn’t exist yet.

When Simpson does eventually take over for the Rams at QB, he’ll have barely played football at all since leaving high school:

One thing is certain: If the Rams fail to make it to the Super Bowl this season, then everyone will be looking at who could have helped the team with this No. 13 pick — and it won’t be Ty Simpson.

#Rams #shocking #Simpson #pick #pissed #Sean #McVay #heres">The Rams’ shocking Ty Simpson pick might have pissed off Sean McVay, and here’s why

There were a lot of surprises in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday night. The Titans taking Carnell Tate at No. 4? Unexpected. Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain, and Makai Lemon all sliding? Shocking — but it was what the Los Angeles Rams did with the No. 13 overall pick that was truly jaw-dropping, selecting Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to be their signal caller of the future. We gave the pick a C+ grade.

It’s not that Simpson is bad, or even that the Rams taking him wasn’t on the cards. In fact, for a long time there was speculation the team would take Simpson in the 1st round, just at No. 29, until Los Angeles traded the pick for Trent McDuffie. The confusion around the selection is aimed more at the fact that taking a quarterback to prepare for the eventuality of Matthew Stafford’s retirement was too cute, and too smart for its own good — especially when the Rams are a team built to win right now.

This only got worse following the draft when coach Sean McVay looked flat-out annoyed while hearing GM Les Snead wax poetic about Ty Simpson.

“We’ve talked about the importance of Jimmy [Garoppolo]. To be able to add somebody that you can evaluate a body of work where he was asked to play the position and a lot of things that do translate in terms of concepts, reading with his feet, some of the different things in the drop back in the play-action game and the movement game. There are a lot of things that [Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan] Grubb did that’s very similar to how we operate, so it made it an easier evaluation to be able to say, ‘Alright, what would that look like if he did translate it to our level?’”

Here’s another clip from McVay’s post-draft presser:

The most generous reading of these comments is that McVay is fine with the pick. His verbiage is more akin to how coaches talk about day three picks, not someone you take No. 13 overall. This is especially notable considering the board at the time, which could have landed the Rams someone like Makai Lemon or Kenyon Sadiq, either of whom would have bolstered the Rams passing attack — or even safety Dillon Thieneman, who would have been an upgrade to the secondary.

It’s going to be at least two years before we learn whether or not picking Simpson was a genius move or not, but there are more questions about the pick after people learned that Snead had personal entanglements with the Simpson family.

It’s only natural to question whether or not Snead had tunnel vision for Simpson throughout this process. One would think that a general manager and head coach’s vision naturally aligns, but this is a case where it might not. Snead’s job is to be more forward-looking at the overall health of the franchise, while McVay’s is to get the most out of the guys he has in front of him. There very well could have been friction about seeing the Falcons’ pick (which they obtained in 2025) as a means to land a quarterback, with the expectation that they’ll otherwise be picking in the back-end of the 20s, or hopefully 32 — while McVay didn’t want to put the cart in front of the horse, and instead get someone that would help prevent the Rams from flaming out in the playoffs.

What makes this all so interesting is that the Rams are typically an organization held up as a paragon of vision and smart decision-making. Selecting Simpson could end up being genius, or a bizarrely desperate move to get a second-round QB talent too early in the draft, just to correct a problem that doesn’t exist yet.

When Simpson does eventually take over for the Rams at QB, he’ll have barely played football at all since leaving high school:

One thing is certain: If the Rams fail to make it to the Super Bowl this season, then everyone will be looking at who could have helped the team with this No. 13 pick — and it won’t be Ty Simpson.

#Rams #shocking #Simpson #pick #pissed #Sean #McVay #heres

Toronto has reversed its plan to charge fans to attend its World Cup fan festival, with the city council approving a revised model that includes a free general admission option after some councillors objected that the proposed $10 fee broke an earlier promise.

City staff had proposed a plan last week to introduce $10 general admission tickets for the event. The festival, which is set to include live match broadcasts, food and entertainment, was originally promoted by the city last year as a “free and inclusive space” for fans to enjoy games during the June 11 to July 19 World Cup.

However, after objections from some councillors, who raised concerns about affordability for residents, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow asked staff this week to revisit the ticketing proposal.

City staff issued a report on Wednesday proposing that, of the 20,000 general admission tickets available each day, 15,600 will be free and 500 will be reserved for community groups at no cost. There will also be 3,900 premium tickets available daily, priced between $100 and $ 300.

ALSO READ: Injured Yamal will come back stronger at World Cup: Barcelona’s Flick

In the original report last week, staff said the ticketing plan was required as a crowd-control measure and to help cover costs related to an “enhanced fan experience”.

“Fan Fest should be free for general admission,” Chow told reporters this week before council voted 18-3 to approve the revised plan. “We can offer VIP packages for those who want them, but the gates should be open for everyone.”

Toronto, one of 16 cities across Canada, the United States and Mexico hosting matches for the 48-team World Cup, will stage six games.

Published on Apr 24, 2026

#FIFA #World #Cup #Toronto #drops #entry #fee #approves #free #general #admission #World #Cup #fan #festival">FIFA World Cup 2026: Toronto drops entry fee, approves free general admission for World Cup fan festival  Toronto has reversed its plan to charge fans to attend its World Cup fan festival, with the city council approving a revised model that includes a free general admission option after some councillors objected that the proposed  fee broke an earlier promise.City staff had proposed a plan last week to introduce  general admission tickets for the event. The festival, which is set to include live match broadcasts, food and entertainment, was originally promoted by the city last year as a “free and inclusive space” for fans to enjoy games during the June 11 to July 19 World Cup.However, after objections from some councillors, who raised concerns about affordability for residents, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow asked staff this week to revisit the ticketing proposal.City staff issued a report on Wednesday proposing that, of the 20,000 general admission tickets available each day, 15,600 will be free and 500 will be reserved for community groups at no cost. There will also be 3,900 premium tickets available daily, priced between 0 and $ 300.ALSO READ: Injured Yamal will come back stronger at World Cup: Barcelona’s FlickIn the original report last week, staff said the ticketing plan was required as a crowd-control measure and to help cover costs related to an “enhanced fan experience”.“Fan Fest should be free for general admission,” Chow told reporters this week before council voted 18-3 to approve the revised plan. “We can offer VIP packages for those who want them, but the gates should be open for everyone.”Toronto, one of 16 cities across Canada, the United States and Mexico hosting matches for the 48-team World Cup, will stage six games.Published on Apr 24, 2026  #FIFA #World #Cup #Toronto #drops #entry #fee #approves #free #general #admission #World #Cup #fan #festival

Injured Yamal will come back stronger at World Cup: Barcelona’s Flick

In the original report last week, staff said the ticketing plan was required as a crowd-control measure and to help cover costs related to an “enhanced fan experience”.

“Fan Fest should be free for general admission,” Chow told reporters this week before council voted 18-3 to approve the revised plan. “We can offer VIP packages for those who want them, but the gates should be open for everyone.”

Toronto, one of 16 cities across Canada, the United States and Mexico hosting matches for the 48-team World Cup, will stage six games.

Published on Apr 24, 2026

#FIFA #World #Cup #Toronto #drops #entry #fee #approves #free #general #admission #World #Cup #fan #festival">FIFA World Cup 2026: Toronto drops entry fee, approves free general admission for World Cup fan festival

Toronto has reversed its plan to charge fans to attend its World Cup fan festival, with the city council approving a revised model that includes a free general admission option after some councillors objected that the proposed $10 fee broke an earlier promise.

City staff had proposed a plan last week to introduce $10 general admission tickets for the event. The festival, which is set to include live match broadcasts, food and entertainment, was originally promoted by the city last year as a “free and inclusive space” for fans to enjoy games during the June 11 to July 19 World Cup.

However, after objections from some councillors, who raised concerns about affordability for residents, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow asked staff this week to revisit the ticketing proposal.

City staff issued a report on Wednesday proposing that, of the 20,000 general admission tickets available each day, 15,600 will be free and 500 will be reserved for community groups at no cost. There will also be 3,900 premium tickets available daily, priced between $100 and $ 300.

ALSO READ: Injured Yamal will come back stronger at World Cup: Barcelona’s Flick

In the original report last week, staff said the ticketing plan was required as a crowd-control measure and to help cover costs related to an “enhanced fan experience”.

“Fan Fest should be free for general admission,” Chow told reporters this week before council voted 18-3 to approve the revised plan. “We can offer VIP packages for those who want them, but the gates should be open for everyone.”

Toronto, one of 16 cities across Canada, the United States and Mexico hosting matches for the 48-team World Cup, will stage six games.

Published on Apr 24, 2026

#FIFA #World #Cup #Toronto #drops #entry #fee #approves #free #general #admission #World #Cup #fan #festival

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