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How reality crushed Ÿnsect, the French startup that had raised over 0M for insect farming | TechCrunch

How reality crushed Ÿnsect, the French startup that had raised over $600M for insect farming | TechCrunch

French startup Ÿnsect shot into the spotlight when “Iron Man” star Robert Downey Jr. touted its merits on the Late Show during Super Bowl weekend 2021. Now, nearly four years later, the insect farming company has been placed into judicial liquidation — essentially bankruptcy — for insolvency. 

The company’s demise is hardly a surprise, as Ÿnsect had been embattled for months. Still, there is plenty to unpack about how a startup can go bankrupt despite raising over $600 million, including from Downey Jr’s FootPrint Coalition, taxpayers, and many others.

Ultimately, Ÿnsect failed to fulfill its ambition to “revolutionize the food chain” with insect-based protein. But don’t be too quick to attribute its failure to the ‘ick’ factor that many Westerners feel about bugs. Human food was never its core focus. 

Instead, Ÿnsect focused on producing insect protein for animal feed and pet food, two markets with very different economics and margins that the company never quite chose between.

That indecision extended to its M&A strategy. In 2021, Ÿnsect acquired Protifarm, a Dutch company raising mealworms for human food applications, adding a third market to the mix. Even as the company announced the deal, then-CEO Antoine Hubert admitted it would take a couple of years for human food to represent just 10% to 15% of Ÿnsect’s revenue. 

“We still see pet food and fish feed being the largest contributor to our revenues in the coming years,” Hubert declared at the time. In other words, Ÿnsect was acquiring a company in a market segment that would remain marginal for years — at a time when the startup desperately needed revenue growth.

And revenue was the problem. According to publicly available data, Ÿnsect’s revenue from its main entity peaked at €17.8 million in 2021 (approximately $21 million) — a figure reportedly inflated by inflated by internal transfers between subsidiaries. By 2023, the company had racked up a net loss of €79.7 million ($94 million).

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So how did a company with such meager revenue raise over $600 million? The answer wasn’t hype-driven crossover funds paying inflated multiples during the 2021 funding frenzy. Instead, Ÿnsect attracted impact-focused investors like Astanor Ventures and public investment bank Bpifrance that bought into a compelling sustainability vision.

Its pitch to them was simple — offering an alternative to resource-intensive proteins like fishmeal and soy. That same thesis also attracted significant capital to competitors like Better Origin and Innovafeed, and it seemed promising.

But the vision collided with market reality. Animal feed is a commodity market driven by price, not sustainability premiums. In a perfect world, insect protein would be fully circular, with insects fed on food waste that would otherwise go to landfill. But in practice, factory-scale insect production typically ends up relying on cereal byproducts that are already usable as animal feed — meaning insect protein just adds an expensive extra step. For animal feed, the math simply wasn’t working.

Ÿnsect eventually recognized this. Pet food proved to be a different equation: it is less price-driven than animal feed and a far better market for insect protein, even with competition from other alternative proteins such as lab-grown meat. By 2023, the company refocused its strategy on pet food and other higher-margin segments, with Hubert citing broader economic pressures. 

“In an environment where there is inflation on energy and raw materials but also on the cost of capital and debt, we cannot afford to invest loads of resources in markets which are the least remunerative (animal feed), while you have other markets where there is a lot of demand, good returns and higher margins,” Hubert said at the time.

The 2023 pivot to pet food came too late. By then, Ÿnsect had already committed to a massive, capital-intensive bet that would ultimately doom the company. That bet was Ÿnfarm, a “giga-factory” in Northern France that the company billed “the world’s most expensive bug farm.” Built for insect production at scale, the facility consumed hundreds of millions in funding — money spent before Ÿnsect had proven its business model or figured out its unit economics.

To oversee Ÿnfarm’s launch, Ÿnsect brought in Shankar Krishnamoorthy, a former executive at French energy giant Engie. When that move to pet food failed to save the company, Krishnamoorthy replaced Hubert as CEO.

Ÿnsect then shut down the production plant it had acquired from Protifarm and cut jobs. But shuttering one facility while operating a giga-factory built for the wrong market couldn’t solve the fundamental problem.

For Professor Joe Haslam, who teaches a course on Scaling Up in the MBA Program at IE Business School, “Ÿnsect’s struggles are not a mystery and not mainly about insects. They are the result of a mismatch between industrial ambition, capital markets, and timing, compounded by some execution and strategy choices.”

The fact that Ÿnsect failed doesn’t mean the entire insect farming sector is doomed. Competitor Innovafeed is reportedly holding up better, in part because it started with a smaller production site and is ramping up incrementally.

For Prof. Haslam, Ÿnsect exemplifies a broader European problem. “Ÿnsect is a case study in Europe’s scaling gap. We fund moonshots. We underfund factories. We celebrate pilots. We abandon industrialization. See Northvolt [a struggling Swedish battery maker], Volocopter [a German air taxi startup, and Lilium [a failed Germany flying taxi company],” he said.

The failure has prompted some soul-searching. Hubert himself co-founded Start Industrie, an association advocating for policies to support French industrial startups — a recognition that Europe needs more than just funding to build the next generation of deep-tech companies.

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#reality #crushed #Ÿnsect #French #startup #raised #600M #insect #farming #TechCrunch


The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at 0,  more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on RecordThe world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

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