“The chronic turbulence in Europe and the Middle East, particularly since the 2019 attack on Abqaiq, appears to have baked geopolitical risk resilience into the market. Energy markets are well supplied. U.S. production remains significant, despite predictions of modest declines in 2026.
In a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ exclusive interview, we talked with Roule about demand, the overall global market and the impact of Chinese stockpiles.
Norman T. Roule
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. As NIM-I at ODNI, he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran, including IC engagement with senior policymakers in the National Security Council and the Department of State.
The Cipher Brief: The President has given Iran two weeks to accept a diplomatic solution to demands that it give up its ambitions to develop a nuclear weapon, which the U.S. and Israel insist is the focus of the country’s nuclear program. What energy-related developments do you expect to be occurring behind the scenes over the next two weeks?
Roule:The U.S. is almost certainly working with the Saudis and Emiratis, who will use their diplomatic channels with Iran to discourage escalation, to manage OPEC, and to prepare their oil sectors for increased production and export through alternative channels to replace any oil lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). I would also expect that the U.S. is working with these countries to provide support for their air defenses. Washington will be busy when it comes to working with other regional partners.
The two-week delay in a U.S. attack will provide welcome time for planning, as well as to work with global consumer partners to prepare for releases from strategic oil stockpiles. On this last point, our strategic needs differ significantly from those of decades past, given our robust domestic production. Nonetheless, this crisis reinforces the need to avoid drawdowns of our strategic oil stockpile for political reasons alone, as some have claimed was done in the recent past.
The Cipher Brief: What is the near-term outlook for oil prices then, and how do you expect higher oil prices to impact the global economy?
Roule:As long as the threat of a U.S. attack on Iran remains a possibility, prices are likely to remain in the upper 70s, with possible further spikes driven by dramatic moments in the conflict. Depending on the intensity of the conflict, prices could reach $120 or $140. If the conflict is brief, the impact is likely to be minimal. But longer and higher oil prices bring a mix of issues. Oil-producing countries, including the United States, will benefit from higher oil revenues, while developing countries and those with limited energy import reserves are likely to suffer. Higher oil prices will contribute to higher inflation, constraining growth and will sharpen the call for interest rate cuts. President Trump has already complained that this crisis has pushed up oil prices and complicated his efforts to bring down inflation.
The Cipher Brief: Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz multiple times over the past few years, knowing that is a powerful way to gain the attention of the world’s diplomats and media. As we see this threat resurface, which countries are most likely to be affected if Tehran makes good on the threat?
Roule:The oil from the SoH reaches global consumers, but the vast majority goes to Asian markets. China, India, South Korea, Pakistan, and Japan are the primary purchasers.
The U.S. imports little crude oil and condensate from the SoH. In 2024, our imports from the region reached around 500,000 b/d, or only around seven percent of our total crude and condensate imports. So, a decision by Iran to shut the SoH would not directly hurt the U.S., and they know it.
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The Cipher Brief: What are the alternatives to move oil outside of the region if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?
Roule:Up front, we need to remind ourselves that we are talking about replacing an artery that moves around fifteen per cent of global crude oil supply and 20% of liquefied natural gas. That is a tremendous amount of energy. In terms of national source, I believe over a third of the oil that transits the SoH is produced by the Saudis. The region also sees heavy container traffic. Jebel Ali Port, for example, is the tenth largest container port in the world.
However, sticking to oil, there are additional routes, but they cannot replace the SoH in terms of quantity. We should also remember that Iran could choose to attack these routes in the event of a conflict. However, the use of these options could provide some relief, both in terms of exports and costs. Ships using these outlets would save on delivery costs and avoid the high insurance premiums associated with war zones.
The most important would be the Saudi East-West Pipeline. This 1,200-kilometer pipeline connects Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province oil fields and facilities at Abqaiq to an export terminal in Yanbu on the Red Sea. The pipeline has a capacity of around five million barrels per day. I believe it carries only a tenth of that today. In 2019, Riyadh converted some of the system’s natural gas lines to handle crude oil, which allowed the route to handle around seven million barrels. Using this route would add distance to those destined for Asia and would require shipments to pass through Yemen, thus exposing them to Houthi attacks.
We also have the Emirati outlet in Fujairah. This line fluctuates between 1.5 and 1.8 million barrels per day, to a point outside the SoH that is home to the world’s largest underground oil storage facility. Abu Dhabi uses a 400-kilometer pipeline to ship Murjan crude from the Habshan oil fields. This line can carry about 500,000 b/d of crude. We are already seeing increased interest by Asian buyers in contracts for loads from this source, as well as Omani crude, which also loads outside the SoH.
Last, Iran would try to use Jask Port. Opened in 2021 on the Gulf of Oman, the port could allow Iran to export around 300,000 b/d from a pipeline that begins at Goreh in the north.
The Cipher Brief: How would Iran try to close the SoH, and how difficult would it be for U.S. forces to respond?
Roule: My sense is that none of the actors involved in the current conflict, including Iran, want to see the war expand into the Persian Gulf. Israel’s focus will be on Iranian energy targets. Tehran can do minor damage to Israel in the Gulf, and closure of the Gulf will hurt Tehran as much as its adversaries. Iran depends on the waterway for its export and import trade. Shutting the Strait would damage the world economy, alienate Tehran’s few diplomatic allies, and potentially could contribute to the demise of the regime. Tehran may believe it has no choice but to attack U.S. bases in the wake of a U.S. strike on Fordow, or it could believe actions in the Gulf would pressure the U.S. and Europe to end the conflict.
Nonetheless, Tehran has a number of disruption options. At the low end, we could see efforts at GPS interference, which would make it difficult for ships to navigate the crowded waters and could lead some to cross into Iranian-claimed territory inadvertently. We’ve already seen reports of GPS jamming, indicating that Tehran has implemented this tactic. Cyber-attacks against ships and regional energy entities are a potential option for Tehran to repeat.
Next, we have harassment by drones, military guards in speed boats, calls for sanitary inspections, claims of smuggling, or intrusions into national waters. U.S. forces could assist here by accompanying vessels. Last, Iran could mine the SoH or use its submarines or use coastal or ship-borne missiles against tankers or oil platforms.
The U.S. would respond quickly of course, drawing upon existing regional naval and air units as well as those brought by our carrier task forces. Washington would also likely seek partners. The United Kingdom is already on site, and burden sharing might also extend to India. New Delhi has strong strategic interests in keeping the waterway open, and there is a precedent here. In 2019, India escorted its oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz during a period of heightened tensions with Iran. This would likely require a several-week military campaign.
The Cipher Brief: Given the overproduction in OPEC+, wouldn’t the group be able to replace oil lost through a closure of the SOH?
Roule:The challenge is that whereas much of OPEC’s spare capacity could be brought on within a few weeks, the bulk would be locked in the Persian Gulf.
The Cipher Brief: What about potential strategic surprises from China?
Roule: Perhaps the only surprise about China in this crisis is that some expected it to behave differently from the way it has in the past. China remains the primary buyer of Iranian oil at deeply discounted rates. These purchases are significant to its smaller refineries, which would be unwilling to pay the full price demanded by any Emirati or Saudi replacement oil. Iran is a key component of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the BRICs, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, China has avoided involvement in regional security issues, leaving that to the United States.
Even in an extreme scenario where the Islamic Republic could fall and be replaced by a pro-U.S. government, China has little incentive to intervene. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are pro-U.S. and yet they remain essential and profitable partners for Beijing. There is no reason to think a pro-U.S. Tehran would be any different.
The Cipher Brief: What haven’t we talked about? Any wildcards?
Roule:Every crisis produces secondary and tertiary impacts. The natural gas story seems the most likely to cause such consequences here. Qatar produces approximately 20 percent of the world’s LNG, and all of its product must transit through the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Violence in the Gulf will threaten this important energy source for many countries.
An Israeli strike on a small portion of the South Pars Gas Field – shared by Qatar and Iran – involved a drone strike on a small refinery in the 200-mile field. Yet it made headlines. Any violence against that field will touch the markets. Any Iranian attacks on Israel’s gas industry will impact Egypt and Jordan. Israel exported around ninety percent of the production of its Leviathan gas field – its largest – to these two countries in 2024.
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![Iran war: Tehran vows response to US seizure of cargo shipSkip next section Oil prices up, stocks down amid Strait of Hormuz standoff04/20/2026April 20, 2026Oil prices up, stocks down amid Strait of Hormuz standoffCrude prices jumped and the US dollar rose but equity futures fell in early Asian trading on Monday.
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared as much as 7% to .85 a barrel.
The S&P 500 futures, meanwhile, fell about 0.9%, while the US dollar appreciated against several other currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen.
The market movements signal investor concern over the Middle East situation, with Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz once again amid the continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Will the Iran war cause a global recession?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSfxSkip next section Iran ‘will soon respond’ to US seizure of Iranian-flagged ship, military says04/20/2026April 20, 2026Iran ‘will soon respond’ to US seizure of Iranian-flagged ship, military saysIranian authorities have accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement between the two sides by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran’s top joint military command, the Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, vowed to respond swiftly to the US actions.
“We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the US military,” the spokesperson said.
Earlier, US naval forces stationed in the region intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, which they said had tried to sail through the waters of the Gulf of Oman, in violation of the US blockade of Iranian ports and shipping.
Iranian state media quoted a military spokesperson as saying that the vessel was en route from China to Iran.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSfnSkip next section Why is Iran not planning to join new round of talks with US?04/19/2026April 19, 2026Why is Iran not planning to join new round of talks with US?Pakistan said it was ready to host a new round of talks, but Iran appears unwilling to attendImage: Qamar Zaman/dpa/picture allianceHours after Donald Trump announced he was dispatching US negotiators for a fresh round of talks in Islamabad, Iran said it has no intention of joining.
So far, engagement between Washington and Tehran has been limited to a single 21-hour negotiating session in Islamabad on April 11 that ended without any breakthrough.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said afterwards that the US side “ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiation.”
Washington’s hardline stance further complicates matters
A major sticking point is the US blockade of Iranian ports, which continues to overshadow diplomacy just days before the two-week ceasefire is due to expire.
Trump’s announcement that US Marines had seized an Iranian ship attempting to evade the blockade is likely to fuel tensions further.
Although Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire in Lebanon, it quickly reversed course in response to the ongoing US blockade.
Earlier, the Fars and Tasnim news agencies, citing anonymous sources, reported that lifting the US blockade was a precondition for any renewed talks.
Another point of contention: Iran’s enrichment program
Trump said on Friday that Iran had agreed to give up its stock of around 440 kilograms of enriched uranium.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry later said the stockpile was “not going to be transferred anywhere.”
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state TV that the “transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium to the US has never been raised in negotiations.”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSf6Skip next section Iran has ‘no plans’ to join talks in Islamabad: state media04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran has ‘no plans’ to join talks in Islamabad: state mediaTehran was not planning to take part in a new round of negotiations with the United States in Islamabad, Iranian state media reported on Sunday
“There are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-US talks,” state broadcaster IRIB reported, in English, on X.
It was not immediately clear who was behind the announcement.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSWZSkip next section Trump: US Marines seized Iranian-flagged cargo ship04/19/2026April 19, 2026Trump: US Marines seized Iranian-flagged cargo shipPresident Donald Trump said US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship on Sunday. The vessel was trying to evade a US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“Our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom,” Trump wrote.
He added that US Marines had taken custody of the ship, named Touska, and were “seeing what’s on board!”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSMsSkip next section Pakistani PM assures Iranian president of committment as mediator of peace04/19/2026April 19, 2026Pakistani PM assures Iranian president of committment as mediator of peacePakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he discussed the conflict in the Gulf with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday.
Sharif wrote in a post on X that he “shared insights from my recent engagements with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Türkiye.”
“I appreciated Iran’s engagement, including its high-level delegation to Islamabad for the historic talks, and recent discussions with Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir,” Sharif said.
Sharif told Pezeshkian that Pakistan remains committed to its role as a facilitator of peace and regional stability.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSBlSkip next section Unclear if Iran will join second round of Islamabad talks04/19/2026April 19, 2026Unclear if Iran will join second round of Islamabad talksIt is still unclear whether Iran will ultimately join the second round of talks in Islamabad with the United States.
State-run Iranian news agency Irna reported Sunday that “there is no clear prospect of fruitful negotiations.”
Irna also pointed to Washington’s “maximalism and unreasonable and unrealistic demands, frequent changes of positions, constant contradictions and the continuation of the so-called naval blockade.”
Meanwhile, the Fars and Tasnim news agencies, quoting anonymous sources, said, “The overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive.”
Fars cited one source as saying that the lifting of a US blockade on Iranian ports was a precondition for continued talks.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CS5vSkip next section IN DEPTH: Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: How dangerous are they?04/19/2026April 19, 2026IN DEPTH: Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: How dangerous are they?Underwater mines can pose a threat in infested areas for decades to come [FILE: Black Sea, Bulgaria on July 1, 2022]Image: BULGARIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Via REUTERSOn Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his country was prepared to supply mine clearance and maritime reconnaissance to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
The same day, Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi declared the critical waterway “completely open” for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, and US President Donald Trump likewise said it was “ready for full passage.”
The following day, Iran reversed its decision, shutting the strait again.
Either way, maritime traffic might still be at risk, given that Iranian authorities had previously indicated there may be underwater mines in the strait.
How dangerous are naval mines, and what can be done to clear them? Find out here.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CS5KSkip next section Vance to return to Islamabad for new round of talks04/19/2026April 19, 2026Vance to return to Islamabad for new round of talksThe trio — JD Vance (right), Jared Kushner (left) and Steve Witkoff (middle) — were in Islambad during the first round of talks [FILE: April 12, 2026]Image: Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo/picture allianceUS Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round of talks between the US and Iran last weekend, will return to Islamabad for the negotiations, according to a White House official.
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner will also be part of the delegation.
Earlier, Trump had said Vance would not go to the Pakistani capital. “It’s only because of security,” Trump told ABC News. “JD’s great.”
Last Sunday, Vance left Islamabad after 21 hours of talks with Iranian officials ended without a breakthrough. Iran war: What’s next after Islamabad talks fail?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRyrSkip next section Two cruise ships pass through Hormuz04/19/2026April 19, 2026Two cruise ships pass through HormuzThe Mein Schiff 4, seen here on the right in 2020, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday (File photo: July 2020)Image: Petra Nowack/penofoto/imago imagesGermany-based TUI Cruises said that its Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
According to the maritime data service MarineTraffic, only one other cruise ship, the Celestial Discovery, formerly known as the Aida aura, had been able to pass the strait since the start of the Iran war on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.
Tui said that all passengers had previously been brought home and both ships were operating with reduced crews, adding that it had obtained approvals from relevant authorities to cross the strait, under careful consideration of the security situation.
It said the ships would now continue on to the Mediterranean Sea.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvSSkip next section Macron to meet with Lebanese PM04/19/2026April 19, 2026Macron to meet with Lebanese PMMacron has demanded that the Lebanese government arrest those responsible for the attack [FILE: April 8, 2026]Image: Tom Nicholson/REUTERSFrench President Emmanuel Macron is expected to meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Paris this week, his office announced.
The meeting comes amid a fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The visit was announced a day after France blamed Hezbollah for an ambush on UN peacekeepers that left one French soldier dead and three others wounded.
Macron is expected to urge Lebanese authorities to “shed full light on the incident” and “identify and prosecute those responsible without delay,” his office added.
With the move, the French government will highlight Macron’s commitment to seeing “full and complete respect for the ceasefire in Lebanon” as well as France’s support for Lebanon’s “territorial integrity,” the president’s office said on Sunday.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvRSkip next section Iran not sending negotiating delegation to Pakistan, Tasnim reports04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran not sending negotiating delegation to Pakistan, Tasnim reportsIran is not sending a negotiating delegation to Pakistan “as long as there is a naval blockade,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday.
The development came after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Sunday, had said his country was working to “bridge” differences between Washington and Tehran.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump had announced that US negotiators were due in Islamabad on Monday evening.
Late Saturday, Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as Iran’s main negotiator, said in an interview on state television that “there will be no retreat in the field of diplomacy.” [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TDeUMPkqbE[/embed]
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvESkip next section Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire violations04/19/2026April 19, 2026Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire violationsTrump has said he won’t let Tehran ‘blackmail us’ over the Strait of Hormuz [April 16, 2026]Image: Mehmet Eser/SOPA Images/ZUMA/picture allianceUS President Donald Trump accused the Iranian regime of violating the current ceasefire agreement and threatened to “to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge,” if Iran does not make a deal with the US.
Tehran said on Saturday it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. At least two ships reported they had been fired upon while approaching the strait on Saturday.
“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” Trump wrote in a post Sunday on his Truth Social platform. “That wasn’t nice, was it?”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRlKSkip next section Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire via blockade04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire via blockadeIran has called the US blockade on its ports a “violation” of the ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan some 10-days ago, which paused over six weeks of fighting.
“The United States’ so-called ‘blockade’ of Iran’s ports or coastline is not only a violation of Pakistani-mediated ceasefire but also both unlawful and criminal,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismaeil Baqaei said Sunday on X.
He cited a United Nations General Assembly resolution to argue that the blockade was an “act of aggression” against Iran.
“Moreover, by deliberately inflicting collective punishment on the Iranian population, it amounts to war crime and crime against humanity,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman went on to say.
Iran has reverted to shuttering the critical Strait of Hormuz after Trump refused to lift the blockade.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRlfSkip next section US negotiators due in Pakistan early next week, Trump says04/19/2026April 19, 2026US negotiators due in Pakistan early next week, Trump saysUS negotiators are due in the Pakistani capital on Monday evening, US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday, as Islamabad mediates efforts aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran.
“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” Trump said in a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform.
He then strayed into criticism and threats against Iran, which he accused of violating the ceasefire agreement by attacking ships attempting to pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Saturday.
Iran had briefly reopened the critical waterway on Friday, only to announce closing it again less than 24 hours later after Trump refused to lift a blockade on its ports.
Questioning Iran’s closure of the strait, Trump called it “strange” because “our BLOCKADE has already closed it.”
Without mentioning any of the terms, he also said the US proposed a peace agreement.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” Trump went on to say.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRiQ#Iran #war #Tehran #vows #response #seizure #cargo #ship](https://i0.wp.com/static.dw.com/image/76386594_6.jpg?ssl=1 "Iran war: Tehran vows response to US seizure of cargo shipSkip next section Oil prices up, stocks down amid Strait of Hormuz standoff04/20/2026April 20, 2026Oil prices up, stocks down amid Strait of Hormuz standoffCrude prices jumped and the US dollar rose but equity futures fell in early Asian trading on Monday.
The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, soared as much as 7% to .85 a barrel.
The S&P 500 futures, meanwhile, fell about 0.9%, while the US dollar appreciated against several other currencies, including the euro and the Japanese yen.
The market movements signal investor concern over the Middle East situation, with Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz once again amid the continuing US blockade of Iranian ports and ships.
Will the Iran war cause a global recession?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSfxSkip next section Iran ‘will soon respond’ to US seizure of Iranian-flagged ship, military says04/20/2026April 20, 2026Iran ‘will soon respond’ to US seizure of Iranian-flagged ship, military saysIranian authorities have accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement between the two sides by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran’s top joint military command, the Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, vowed to respond swiftly to the US actions.
“We warn that the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy by the US military,” the spokesperson said.
Earlier, US naval forces stationed in the region intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, which they said had tried to sail through the waters of the Gulf of Oman, in violation of the US blockade of Iranian ports and shipping.
Iranian state media quoted a military spokesperson as saying that the vessel was en route from China to Iran.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSfnSkip next section Why is Iran not planning to join new round of talks with US?04/19/2026April 19, 2026Why is Iran not planning to join new round of talks with US?Pakistan said it was ready to host a new round of talks, but Iran appears unwilling to attendImage: Qamar Zaman/dpa/picture allianceHours after Donald Trump announced he was dispatching US negotiators for a fresh round of talks in Islamabad, Iran said it has no intention of joining.
So far, engagement between Washington and Tehran has been limited to a single 21-hour negotiating session in Islamabad on April 11 that ended without any breakthrough.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said afterwards that the US side “ultimately failed to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of negotiation.”
Washington’s hardline stance further complicates matters
A major sticking point is the US blockade of Iranian ports, which continues to overshadow diplomacy just days before the two-week ceasefire is due to expire.
Trump’s announcement that US Marines had seized an Iranian ship attempting to evade the blockade is likely to fuel tensions further.
Although Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire in Lebanon, it quickly reversed course in response to the ongoing US blockade.
Earlier, the Fars and Tasnim news agencies, citing anonymous sources, reported that lifting the US blockade was a precondition for any renewed talks.
Another point of contention: Iran’s enrichment program
Trump said on Friday that Iran had agreed to give up its stock of around 440 kilograms of enriched uranium.
However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry later said the stockpile was “not going to be transferred anywhere.”
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told state TV that the “transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium to the US has never been raised in negotiations.”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSf6Skip next section Iran has ‘no plans’ to join talks in Islamabad: state media04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran has ‘no plans’ to join talks in Islamabad: state mediaTehran was not planning to take part in a new round of negotiations with the United States in Islamabad, Iranian state media reported on Sunday
“There are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-US talks,” state broadcaster IRIB reported, in English, on X.
It was not immediately clear who was behind the announcement.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSWZSkip next section Trump: US Marines seized Iranian-flagged cargo ship04/19/2026April 19, 2026Trump: US Marines seized Iranian-flagged cargo shipPresident Donald Trump said US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship on Sunday. The vessel was trying to evade a US naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“Our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom,” Trump wrote.
He added that US Marines had taken custody of the ship, named Touska, and were “seeing what’s on board!”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSMsSkip next section Pakistani PM assures Iranian president of committment as mediator of peace04/19/2026April 19, 2026Pakistani PM assures Iranian president of committment as mediator of peacePakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he discussed the conflict in the Gulf with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday.
Sharif wrote in a post on X that he “shared insights from my recent engagements with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Türkiye.”
“I appreciated Iran’s engagement, including its high-level delegation to Islamabad for the historic talks, and recent discussions with Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir,” Sharif said.
Sharif told Pezeshkian that Pakistan remains committed to its role as a facilitator of peace and regional stability.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CSBlSkip next section Unclear if Iran will join second round of Islamabad talks04/19/2026April 19, 2026Unclear if Iran will join second round of Islamabad talksIt is still unclear whether Iran will ultimately join the second round of talks in Islamabad with the United States.
State-run Iranian news agency Irna reported Sunday that “there is no clear prospect of fruitful negotiations.”
Irna also pointed to Washington’s “maximalism and unreasonable and unrealistic demands, frequent changes of positions, constant contradictions and the continuation of the so-called naval blockade.”
Meanwhile, the Fars and Tasnim news agencies, quoting anonymous sources, said, “The overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive.”
Fars cited one source as saying that the lifting of a US blockade on Iranian ports was a precondition for continued talks.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CS5vSkip next section IN DEPTH: Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: How dangerous are they?04/19/2026April 19, 2026IN DEPTH: Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: How dangerous are they?Underwater mines can pose a threat in infested areas for decades to come [FILE: Black Sea, Bulgaria on July 1, 2022]Image: BULGARIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Via REUTERSOn Friday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his country was prepared to supply mine clearance and maritime reconnaissance to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
The same day, Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi declared the critical waterway “completely open” for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, and US President Donald Trump likewise said it was “ready for full passage.”
The following day, Iran reversed its decision, shutting the strait again.
Either way, maritime traffic might still be at risk, given that Iranian authorities had previously indicated there may be underwater mines in the strait.
How dangerous are naval mines, and what can be done to clear them? Find out here.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CS5KSkip next section Vance to return to Islamabad for new round of talks04/19/2026April 19, 2026Vance to return to Islamabad for new round of talksThe trio — JD Vance (right), Jared Kushner (left) and Steve Witkoff (middle) — were in Islambad during the first round of talks [FILE: April 12, 2026]Image: Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo/picture allianceUS Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round of talks between the US and Iran last weekend, will return to Islamabad for the negotiations, according to a White House official.
Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner will also be part of the delegation.
Earlier, Trump had said Vance would not go to the Pakistani capital. “It’s only because of security,” Trump told ABC News. “JD’s great.”
Last Sunday, Vance left Islamabad after 21 hours of talks with Iranian officials ended without a breakthrough. Iran war: What’s next after Islamabad talks fail?To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRyrSkip next section Two cruise ships pass through Hormuz04/19/2026April 19, 2026Two cruise ships pass through HormuzThe Mein Schiff 4, seen here on the right in 2020, passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday (File photo: July 2020)Image: Petra Nowack/penofoto/imago imagesGermany-based TUI Cruises said that its Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
According to the maritime data service MarineTraffic, only one other cruise ship, the Celestial Discovery, formerly known as the Aida aura, had been able to pass the strait since the start of the Iran war on February 28, when the US and Israel attacked Iran.
Tui said that all passengers had previously been brought home and both ships were operating with reduced crews, adding that it had obtained approvals from relevant authorities to cross the strait, under careful consideration of the security situation.
It said the ships would now continue on to the Mediterranean Sea.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvSSkip next section Macron to meet with Lebanese PM04/19/2026April 19, 2026Macron to meet with Lebanese PMMacron has demanded that the Lebanese government arrest those responsible for the attack [FILE: April 8, 2026]Image: Tom Nicholson/REUTERSFrench President Emmanuel Macron is expected to meet with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Paris this week, his office announced.
The meeting comes amid a fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
The visit was announced a day after France blamed Hezbollah for an ambush on UN peacekeepers that left one French soldier dead and three others wounded.
Macron is expected to urge Lebanese authorities to “shed full light on the incident” and “identify and prosecute those responsible without delay,” his office added.
With the move, the French government will highlight Macron’s commitment to seeing “full and complete respect for the ceasefire in Lebanon” as well as France’s support for Lebanon’s “territorial integrity,” the president’s office said on Sunday.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvRSkip next section Iran not sending negotiating delegation to Pakistan, Tasnim reports04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran not sending negotiating delegation to Pakistan, Tasnim reportsIran is not sending a negotiating delegation to Pakistan “as long as there is a naval blockade,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday.
The development came after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who spoke by phone with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Sunday, had said his country was working to “bridge” differences between Washington and Tehran.
Earlier, US President Donald Trump had announced that US negotiators were due in Islamabad on Monday evening.
Late Saturday, Parliament Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as Iran’s main negotiator, said in an interview on state television that “there will be no retreat in the field of diplomacy.” [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TDeUMPkqbE[/embed]
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRvESkip next section Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire violations04/19/2026April 19, 2026Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire violationsTrump has said he won’t let Tehran ‘blackmail us’ over the Strait of Hormuz [April 16, 2026]Image: Mehmet Eser/SOPA Images/ZUMA/picture allianceUS President Donald Trump accused the Iranian regime of violating the current ceasefire agreement and threatened to “to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge,” if Iran does not make a deal with the US.
Tehran said on Saturday it would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. At least two ships reported they had been fired upon while approaching the strait on Saturday.
“Iran decided to fire bullets yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz — A Total Violation of our Ceasefire Agreement!” Trump wrote in a post Sunday on his Truth Social platform. “That wasn’t nice, was it?”
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRlKSkip next section Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire via blockade04/19/2026April 19, 2026Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire via blockadeIran has called the US blockade on its ports a “violation” of the ceasefire agreement mediated by Pakistan some 10-days ago, which paused over six weeks of fighting.
“The United States’ so-called ‘blockade’ of Iran’s ports or coastline is not only a violation of Pakistani-mediated ceasefire but also both unlawful and criminal,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismaeil Baqaei said Sunday on X.
He cited a United Nations General Assembly resolution to argue that the blockade was an “act of aggression” against Iran.
“Moreover, by deliberately inflicting collective punishment on the Iranian population, it amounts to war crime and crime against humanity,” the Foreign Ministry spokesman went on to say.
Iran has reverted to shuttering the critical Strait of Hormuz after Trump refused to lift the blockade.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRlfSkip next section US negotiators due in Pakistan early next week, Trump says04/19/2026April 19, 2026US negotiators due in Pakistan early next week, Trump saysUS negotiators are due in the Pakistani capital on Monday evening, US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday, as Islamabad mediates efforts aimed at ending the US-Israeli war on Iran.
“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” Trump said in a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform.
He then strayed into criticism and threats against Iran, which he accused of violating the ceasefire agreement by attacking ships attempting to pass through the strategic Strait of Hormuz on Saturday.
Iran had briefly reopened the critical waterway on Friday, only to announce closing it again less than 24 hours later after Trump refused to lift a blockade on its ports.
Questioning Iran’s closure of the strait, Trump called it “strange” because “our BLOCKADE has already closed it.”
Without mentioning any of the terms, he also said the US proposed a peace agreement.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” Trump went on to say.
https://p.dw.com/p/5CRiQ#Iran #war #Tehran #vows #response #seizure #cargo #ship")
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