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NBA mock draft 2026: Update after college basketball entry deadline with final lottery odds The 2026 NBA Draft class has been hyped for years. The big pay off is finally coming on May 10 with the drawing of the draft lottery, and now the odds for the ping-pong balls have been finalized.The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers earned the top odds with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each have an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while the Memphis Grizzlies have the next-best odds at nine percent. The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8 percent chance at winning the top-pick thanks to their brilliant trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and then Atlanta also has another three percent chance at the top pick thanks to swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks.The Dallas Mavericks have a 6.7 percent chance at No. 1, the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, and the Golden State Warriors have a two percent chance at the first pick. The Thunder (1.5 percent thanks to a swap with the Clippers), Heat (1 percent), and Hornets (0.5 percent) round out the lottery.This draft class has already lost some talent to NIL money. UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou were all projected first-round picks in our previous mock draft before deciding to return to school. Only Yessoufou left himself the option to still enter this draft.The best thing about this draft class if you don’t need the No. 1 pick to find a future franchise player. Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done. Here’s our latest 2026 NBA mock draft using the lottery standings as the order.PickTeamPlayerPositionSchoolAge1Washington WizardsAJ DybantsaWingBYUFreshman2Indiana PacersDarryn PetersonGuardKansasFreshman3Brooklyn NetsCameron BoozerForwardDukeFreshman4Utah JazzCaleb WilsonForwardNorth CarolinaFreshman5Sacramento KingsDarius AcuffGuardArkansasFreshman6Memphis GrizzliesKeaton WaglerGuardIllinoisFreshman7Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)Kingston FlemingsGuardHoustonFreshman8Dallas MavericksMikel Brown Jr.GuardLouisvilleFreshman9Chicago BullsAday MaraCenterMichiganJunior10Milwaukee BucksBrayden BurriesGuardArizonaFreshman11Golden State WarriorsYaxel LendeborgForwardMichiganSenior12Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)Nate AmentWingTennesseeFreshman13Miami HeatKarim LopezForwardNZ BreakersBorn 200714Charlotte HornetsJayden QuaintanceCenter/ForwardKentuckySophomore15Chicago BullsMorez JohnsonCenter/ForwardMichiganSophomore16Memphis GrizzliesDailyn SwainWingTexasJunior17Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ersHannes SteinbachForward/CenterWashingtonFreshman18Charlotte Hornets (via Magic)Cameron CarrWingBaylorJunior19Toronto RaptorsLabaron PhilonGuardAlabamaSophomore20San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks)Chris CenacCenterHoustonFreshman21Detroit Pistons (via Wolves)Bennett StirtzGuardIowaSenior22Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets)Allen GravesForwardSanta ClaraFreshman23Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs)Joshua JeffersonForwardIowa StateSenior24New York KnicksIsaiah EvansGuardDukeSophomore25Los Angeles LakersHenri VeesaarCenterNorth CarolinaJunior26Denver NuggetsKoa PeatForwardArizonaFreshman27Boston CelticsTyler TannerGuardVanderbiltSophomore28Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons)Meleek ThomasGuardArkansasFreshman29Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs)Christian AndersonGuardTexas TechSophomore30Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder)Isaiah EvansGuardDukeSophomoreLet’s dive into one of the biggest themes to watch on lottery night.NBA Draft 2026 lottery odds to land a top-4 pickIt feels like every team in the lottery would be thrilled just to land in the top-4 — that’s just how strong this draft class is. Here are the odds each lottery team has to land in the top-4, via Tankathon:Caleb Wilson might be rising into the top-3 — or higherCaleb Wilson didn’t play in the 2026 NCAA tournament for North Carolina after suffering a broken bone in his left hand in February and then a broken thumb in his right hand in March. Those injuries shouldn’t and reportedly haven’t dulled NBA interest. In the last few weeks, there have been reports that some teams value Wilson more than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and that he could even be the second player taken on draft night.Wilson has the single best highlight reel in the class for my money. Sit back and enjoy:There’s a compelling sales pitch for the UNC forward. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10 who dunks everything (67 dunks in 24 games), he’s a high-motor defender who guard all over the floor, he’s a good passer, and he has an ability to create scoring opportunities for himself away from the rim with excellent mid-range shooting touch. The two big knocks on him are his shooting and ball handling. Wilson is not a good three-point shooter right now after making 25.9 percent of his 27 attempts from deep in college. He also isn’t really a viable on-ball creator because his lack of handle refinement limits where he can get on the floor. For now, he’s an electric play-finisher on offense and a buzzsaw on defense who should be an absolute terror in transition from day one.I’ve been consistent that Boozer is my top player in the class. Boozer and Wilson were teammates on the Nike EYBL circuit for Nightrydas, and there was never any question on who the best player on the team was (it was Boozer). Wilson did arguably out-play him in the first Duke vs. North Carolina game this season, which was one of the best prospect matchups we got all year in college hoops.I have liked Wilson for a while, even putting him on my 2023 list of the best NBA prospects in high school hoops. I’m considering sliding him up to No. 2 on my board, and I would not be shocked if he’s eventually picked in the top-3. Just moving up to No. 4 in the lottery — likely in position to draft Boozer or Wilson — would be an incredible boon for teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks, who all have long-shots odds entering the lottery. Wilson is so much better than the No. 4 overall prospect in a typical draft, and that’s a big reason why this class is so highly-touted.Who moves up after the college basketball early entry deadline?I thought Braylon Mullins and Patrick Ngongba were lottery-caliber talents. Instead, both are going back to UConn and Duke respectively. Thomas Haugh was considered a lottery pick on ESPN’s big board, but he’s going back to Florida for arguably the biggest NIL bag in college basketball history. Flory Bidunga’s decision to transfer to Louisville rather than enter the draft (though he is on the early entry list) is another hit to the depth of the class. It’s possible players like Tyler Tanner, Allen Graves, Juke Harris, Alijah Arenas, and Ebuka Okorie — who could all be drafted in the first round — eventually decide returning to school is their best decision. I named Graves as the best available player in the transfer portal, and there are some whispers that he could end up at Duke if he doesn’t enter the draft.Here’s full early entry list, via Jeremy Woo:The list of returners undeniably impacts the second half of the first round and the entirety of the second round. Expect plenty of seniors to hear their names once we get into the 20s, and new prospects are already emerging in pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. I enjoyed this YouTube breakdown from Ben Pfeifer on the biggest winners of the PIT.I have Henri Veesaar moving up into the first-round in this mock draft thanks to all the players slated to return back to school. The North Carolina center was one of the my favorite potential second-rounders in this class for his interior scoring efficiency and three-point shooting improvement, but now he might move up by default. It feels like Christian Anderson is likely staying the draft too, but there’s only so many potential landing spots for smaller guards. I’ve also projected Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea as a first-round pick at times during the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to generate buzz again in the lead up to the draft.The withdrawal deadline is only 10 days before the draft on June 13 at 5 p.m. ET. The draft board will continue to evolve until then.Michigan’s 3 stars all end up in the lotteryThe Wolverines were a wagon on their way to a college basketball national championship. While I would expect Elliott Cadeau to return to school, I think Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft.I spent March Madness following Michigan and reporting out a feature on how Yaxel Lendeborg grew up into a potential lottery pick. He told me about the NBA’s feedback at the combine last year, how he views his pro translation, and what this year at Michigan meant to him. I think you’ll like what he had to say:I also spent a lot of time chatting with Aday Mara throughout Michigan’s March Madness run. Read my feature on how Mara developed into a lottery pick after two years on the bench at UCLA.Morez Johnson is a Chicagoland kid who didn’t leave the area for a prep school like so many of his highly touted peers. In this mock, Mara and Johnson are reunited with the Chicago Bulls, who earned a second top-15 pick via the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to their 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade.NBA Draft 2026 lottery date, TV time, and streamingHere’s what you need to know about this year’s draft lottery drawing: #NBA #mock #draft #Update #college #basketball #entry #deadline #final #lottery #odds

NBA mock draft 2026: Update after college basketball entry deadline with final lottery odds

The 2026 NBA Draft class has been hyped for years. The big pay off is finally coming on May 10 with the drawing of the draft lottery, and now the odds for the ping-pong balls have been finalized.

The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers earned the top odds with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each have an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while the Memphis Grizzlies have the next-best odds at nine percent. The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8 percent chance at winning the top-pick thanks to their brilliant trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and then Atlanta also has another three percent chance at the top pick thanks to swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 6.7 percent chance at No. 1, the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, and the Golden State Warriors have a two percent chance at the first pick. The Thunder (1.5 percent thanks to a swap with the Clippers), Heat (1 percent), and Hornets (0.5 percent) round out the lottery.

This draft class has already lost some talent to NIL money. UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou were all projected first-round picks in our previous mock draft before deciding to return to school. Only Yessoufou left himself the option to still enter this draft.

The best thing about this draft class if you don’t need the No. 1 pick to find a future franchise player. Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done. Here’s our latest 2026 NBA mock draft using the lottery standings as the order.

Pick

Team

Player

Position

School

Age

1Washington WizardsAJ DybantsaWingBYUFreshman
2Indiana PacersDarryn PetersonGuardKansasFreshman
3Brooklyn NetsCameron BoozerForwardDukeFreshman
4Utah JazzCaleb WilsonForwardNorth CarolinaFreshman
5Sacramento KingsDarius AcuffGuardArkansasFreshman
6Memphis GrizzliesKeaton WaglerGuardIllinoisFreshman
7Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)Kingston FlemingsGuardHoustonFreshman
8Dallas MavericksMikel Brown Jr.GuardLouisvilleFreshman
9Chicago BullsAday MaraCenterMichiganJunior
10Milwaukee BucksBrayden BurriesGuardArizonaFreshman
11Golden State WarriorsYaxel LendeborgForwardMichiganSenior
12Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)Nate AmentWingTennesseeFreshman
13Miami HeatKarim LopezForwardNZ BreakersBorn 2007
14Charlotte HornetsJayden QuaintanceCenter/ForwardKentuckySophomore
15Chicago BullsMorez JohnsonCenter/ForwardMichiganSophomore
16Memphis GrizzliesDailyn SwainWingTexasJunior
17Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ersHannes SteinbachForward/CenterWashingtonFreshman
18Charlotte Hornets (via Magic)Cameron CarrWingBaylorJunior
19Toronto RaptorsLabaron PhilonGuardAlabamaSophomore
20San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks)Chris CenacCenterHoustonFreshman
21Detroit Pistons (via Wolves)Bennett StirtzGuardIowaSenior
22Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets)Allen GravesForwardSanta ClaraFreshman
23Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs)Joshua JeffersonForwardIowa StateSenior
24New York KnicksIsaiah EvansGuardDukeSophomore
25Los Angeles LakersHenri VeesaarCenterNorth CarolinaJunior
26Denver NuggetsKoa PeatForwardArizonaFreshman
27Boston CelticsTyler TannerGuardVanderbiltSophomore
28Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons)Meleek ThomasGuardArkansasFreshman
29Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs)Christian AndersonGuardTexas TechSophomore
30Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder)Isaiah EvansGuardDukeSophomore

Let’s dive into one of the biggest themes to watch on lottery night.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery odds to land a top-4 pick

It feels like every team in the lottery would be thrilled just to land in the top-4 — that’s just how strong this draft class is. Here are the odds each lottery team has to land in the top-4, via Tankathon:

Caleb Wilson might be rising into the top-3 — or higher

Caleb Wilson didn’t play in the 2026 NCAA tournament for North Carolina after suffering a broken bone in his left hand in February and then a broken thumb in his right hand in March. Those injuries shouldn’t and reportedly haven’t dulled NBA interest. In the last few weeks, there have been reports that some teams value Wilson more than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and that he could even be the second player taken on draft night.

Wilson has the single best highlight reel in the class for my money. Sit back and enjoy:

There’s a compelling sales pitch for the UNC forward. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10 who dunks everything (67 dunks in 24 games), he’s a high-motor defender who guard all over the floor, he’s a good passer, and he has an ability to create scoring opportunities for himself away from the rim with excellent mid-range shooting touch. The two big knocks on him are his shooting and ball handling. Wilson is not a good three-point shooter right now after making 25.9 percent of his 27 attempts from deep in college. He also isn’t really a viable on-ball creator because his lack of handle refinement limits where he can get on the floor. For now, he’s an electric play-finisher on offense and a buzzsaw on defense who should be an absolute terror in transition from day one.

I’ve been consistent that Boozer is my top player in the class. Boozer and Wilson were teammates on the Nike EYBL circuit for Nightrydas, and there was never any question on who the best player on the team was (it was Boozer). Wilson did arguably out-play him in the first Duke vs. North Carolina game this season, which was one of the best prospect matchups we got all year in college hoops.

I have liked Wilson for a while, even putting him on my 2023 list of the best NBA prospects in high school hoops. I’m considering sliding him up to No. 2 on my board, and I would not be shocked if he’s eventually picked in the top-3. Just moving up to No. 4 in the lottery — likely in position to draft Boozer or Wilson — would be an incredible boon for teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks, who all have long-shots odds entering the lottery. Wilson is so much better than the No. 4 overall prospect in a typical draft, and that’s a big reason why this class is so highly-touted.

Who moves up after the college basketball early entry deadline?

I thought Braylon Mullins and Patrick Ngongba were lottery-caliber talents. Instead, both are going back to UConn and Duke respectively. Thomas Haugh was considered a lottery pick on ESPN’s big board, but he’s going back to Florida for arguably the biggest NIL bag in college basketball history. Flory Bidunga’s decision to transfer to Louisville rather than enter the draft (though he is on the early entry list) is another hit to the depth of the class. It’s possible players like Tyler Tanner, Allen Graves, Juke Harris, Alijah Arenas, and Ebuka Okorie — who could all be drafted in the first round — eventually decide returning to school is their best decision. I named Graves as the best available player in the transfer portal, and there are some whispers that he could end up at Duke if he doesn’t enter the draft.

Here’s full early entry list, via Jeremy Woo:

The list of returners undeniably impacts the second half of the first round and the entirety of the second round. Expect plenty of seniors to hear their names once we get into the 20s, and new prospects are already emerging in pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. I enjoyed this YouTube breakdown from Ben Pfeifer on the biggest winners of the PIT.

I have Henri Veesaar moving up into the first-round in this mock draft thanks to all the players slated to return back to school. The North Carolina center was one of the my favorite potential second-rounders in this class for his interior scoring efficiency and three-point shooting improvement, but now he might move up by default. It feels like Christian Anderson is likely staying the draft too, but there’s only so many potential landing spots for smaller guards. I’ve also projected Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea as a first-round pick at times during the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to generate buzz again in the lead up to the draft.

The withdrawal deadline is only 10 days before the draft on June 13 at 5 p.m. ET. The draft board will continue to evolve until then.

Michigan’s 3 stars all end up in the lottery

The Wolverines were a wagon on their way to a college basketball national championship. While I would expect Elliott Cadeau to return to school, I think Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft.

  • I also spent a lot of time chatting with Aday Mara throughout Michigan’s March Madness run. Read my feature on how Mara developed into a lottery pick after two years on the bench at UCLA.
  • Morez Johnson is a Chicagoland kid who didn’t leave the area for a prep school like so many of his highly touted peers. In this mock, Mara and Johnson are reunited with the Chicago Bulls, who earned a second top-15 pick via the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to their 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery date, TV time, and streaming

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s draft lottery drawing:

#NBA #mock #draft #Update #college #basketball #entry #deadline #final #lottery #odds

Sports news ,

The 2026 NBA Draft class has been hyped for years. The big pay off is finally coming on May 10 with the drawing of the draft lottery, and now the odds for the ping-pong balls have been finalized.

The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers earned the top odds with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each have an 11.5 percent chance at No. 1, while the Memphis Grizzlies have the next-best odds at nine percent. The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8 percent chance at winning the top-pick thanks to their brilliant trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and then Atlanta also has another three percent chance at the top pick thanks to swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Dallas Mavericks have a 6.7 percent chance at No. 1, the Chicago Bulls have a 4.5 percent chance at winning the lottery, and the Golden State Warriors have a two percent chance at the first pick. The Thunder (1.5 percent thanks to a swap with the Clippers), Heat (1 percent), and Hornets (0.5 percent) round out the lottery.

This draft class has already lost some talent to NIL money. UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou were all projected first-round picks in our previous mock draft before deciding to return to school. Only Yessoufou left himself the option to still enter this draft.

The best thing about this draft class if you don’t need the No. 1 pick to find a future franchise player. Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done. Here’s our latest 2026 NBA mock draft using the lottery standings as the order.

Pick

Team

Player

Position

School

Age
1 Washington Wizards AJ Dybantsa Wing BYU Freshman
2 Indiana Pacers Darryn Peterson Guard Kansas Freshman
3 Brooklyn Nets Cameron Boozer Forward Duke Freshman
4 Utah Jazz Caleb Wilson Forward North Carolina Freshman
5 Sacramento Kings Darius Acuff Guard Arkansas Freshman
6 Memphis Grizzlies Keaton Wagler Guard Illinois Freshman
7 Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans) Kingston Flemings Guard Houston Freshman
8 Dallas Mavericks Mikel Brown Jr. Guard Louisville Freshman
9 Chicago Bulls Aday Mara Center Michigan Junior
10 Milwaukee Bucks Brayden Burries Guard Arizona Freshman
11 Golden State Warriors Yaxel Lendeborg Forward Michigan Senior
12 Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers) Nate Ament Wing Tennessee Freshman
13 Miami Heat Karim Lopez Forward NZ Breakers Born 2007
14 Charlotte Hornets Jayden Quaintance Center/Forward Kentucky Sophomore
15 Chicago Bulls Morez Johnson Center/Forward Michigan Sophomore
16 Memphis Grizzlies Dailyn Swain Wing Texas Junior
17 Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ers Hannes Steinbach Forward/Center Washington Freshman
18 Charlotte Hornets (via Magic) Cameron Carr Wing Baylor Junior
19 Toronto Raptors Labaron Philon Guard Alabama Sophomore
20 San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks) Chris Cenac Center Houston Freshman
21 Detroit Pistons (via Wolves) Bennett Stirtz Guard Iowa Senior
22 Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets) Allen Graves Forward Santa Clara Freshman
23 Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs) Joshua Jefferson Forward Iowa State Senior
24 New York Knicks Isaiah Evans Guard Duke Sophomore
25 Los Angeles Lakers Henri Veesaar Center North Carolina Junior
26 Denver Nuggets Koa Peat Forward Arizona Freshman
27 Boston Celtics Tyler Tanner Guard Vanderbilt Sophomore
28 Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons) Meleek Thomas Guard Arkansas Freshman
29 Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs) Christian Anderson Guard Texas Tech Sophomore
30 Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder) Isaiah Evans Guard Duke Sophomore

Let’s dive into one of the biggest themes to watch on lottery night.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery odds to land a top-4 pick

It feels like every team in the lottery would be thrilled just to land in the top-4 — that’s just how strong this draft class is. Here are the odds each lottery team has to land in the top-4, via Tankathon:

Caleb Wilson might be rising into the top-3 — or higher

Caleb Wilson didn’t play in the 2026 NCAA tournament for North Carolina after suffering a broken bone in his left hand in February and then a broken thumb in his right hand in March. Those injuries shouldn’t and reportedly haven’t dulled NBA interest. In the last few weeks, there have been reports that some teams value Wilson more than Duke forward Cameron Boozer, and that he could even be the second player taken on draft night.

Wilson has the single best highlight reel in the class for my money. Sit back and enjoy:

There’s a compelling sales pitch for the UNC forward. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10 who dunks everything (67 dunks in 24 games), he’s a high-motor defender who guard all over the floor, he’s a good passer, and he has an ability to create scoring opportunities for himself away from the rim with excellent mid-range shooting touch. The two big knocks on him are his shooting and ball handling. Wilson is not a good three-point shooter right now after making 25.9 percent of his 27 attempts from deep in college. He also isn’t really a viable on-ball creator because his lack of handle refinement limits where he can get on the floor. For now, he’s an electric play-finisher on offense and a buzzsaw on defense who should be an absolute terror in transition from day one.

I’ve been consistent that Boozer is my top player in the class. Boozer and Wilson were teammates on the Nike EYBL circuit for Nightrydas, and there was never any question on who the best player on the team was (it was Boozer). Wilson did arguably out-play him in the first Duke vs. North Carolina game this season, which was one of the best prospect matchups we got all year in college hoops.

I have liked Wilson for a while, even putting him on my 2023 list of the best NBA prospects in high school hoops. I’m considering sliding him up to No. 2 on my board, and I would not be shocked if he’s eventually picked in the top-3. Just moving up to No. 4 in the lottery — likely in position to draft Boozer or Wilson — would be an incredible boon for teams like the Bulls, Warriors, and Bucks, who all have long-shots odds entering the lottery. Wilson is so much better than the No. 4 overall prospect in a typical draft, and that’s a big reason why this class is so highly-touted.

Who moves up after the college basketball early entry deadline?

I thought Braylon Mullins and Patrick Ngongba were lottery-caliber talents. Instead, both are going back to UConn and Duke respectively. Thomas Haugh was considered a lottery pick on ESPN’s big board, but he’s going back to Florida for arguably the biggest NIL bag in college basketball history. Flory Bidunga’s decision to transfer to Louisville rather than enter the draft (though he is on the early entry list) is another hit to the depth of the class. It’s possible players like Tyler Tanner, Allen Graves, Juke Harris, Alijah Arenas, and Ebuka Okorie — who could all be drafted in the first round — eventually decide returning to school is their best decision. I named Graves as the best available player in the transfer portal, and there are some whispers that he could end up at Duke if he doesn’t enter the draft.

Here’s full early entry list, via Jeremy Woo:

The list of returners undeniably impacts the second half of the first round and the entirety of the second round. Expect plenty of seniors to hear their names once we get into the 20s, and new prospects are already emerging in pre-draft camps like the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. I enjoyed this YouTube breakdown from Ben Pfeifer on the biggest winners of the PIT.

I have Henri Veesaar moving up into the first-round in this mock draft thanks to all the players slated to return back to school. The North Carolina center was one of the my favorite potential second-rounders in this class for his interior scoring efficiency and three-point shooting improvement, but now he might move up by default. It feels like Christian Anderson is likely staying the draft too, but there’s only so many potential landing spots for smaller guards. I’ve also projected Spanish guard Sergio de Larrea as a first-round pick at times during the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to generate buzz again in the lead up to the draft.

The withdrawal deadline is only 10 days before the draft on June 13 at 5 p.m. ET. The draft board will continue to evolve until then.

Michigan’s 3 stars all end up in the lottery

The Wolverines were a wagon on their way to a college basketball national championship. While I would expect Elliott Cadeau to return to school, I think Morez Johnson will be joining Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg in the draft.

  • I spent March Madness following Michigan and reporting out a feature on how Yaxel Lendeborg grew up into a potential lottery pick. He told me about the NBA’s feedback at the combine last year, how he views his pro translation, and what this year at Michigan meant to him. I think you’ll like what he had to say:
  • I also spent a lot of time chatting with Aday Mara throughout Michigan’s March Madness run. Read my feature on how Mara developed into a lottery pick after two years on the bench at UCLA.
  • Morez Johnson is a Chicagoland kid who didn’t leave the area for a prep school like so many of his highly touted peers. In this mock, Mara and Johnson are reunited with the Chicago Bulls, who earned a second top-15 pick via the Portland Trail Blazers thanks to their 2021 Lauri Markkanen trade.

NBA Draft 2026 lottery date, TV time, and streaming

Here’s what you need to know about this year’s draft lottery drawing:

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Deadspin | Ryan Vilade, Rays chase series-clinching win over Guardians <div id=""><section id="0" class=" w-full"><div class="xl:container mx-0 !px-4 py-0 pb-4 !mx-0 !px-0"><img src="https://images.deadspin.com/tr:w-900/28826510.jpg" srcset="https://images.deadspin.com/tr:w-900/28826510.jpg" alt="MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians" class="w-full" fetchpriority="high" loading="eager"/><span class="text-0.8 leading-tight">Apr 27, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda (8) and right fielder Ryan Vilade (26) celebrate a win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images<!-- --> <!-- --> </span></div></section><section id="section-1"> <p>Ryan Vilade had brief stints with four teams during his first three seasons in the majors. The 27-year-old outfielder looks as if he finally has found a home with the Tampa Bay Rays.</p> </section><section id="section-2"> <p>Vilade is batting .458 (11-for-24) with a .500 on-base percentage over his past 10 games for the surging Rays.</p> </section><section id="section-3"> <p>Tampa Bay continues its three-game series in Cleveland on Tuesday when Rays right-hander Nick Martinez (1-1, 2.10 ERA) takes on Guardians righty Tanner Bibee (0-3, 4.45).</p> </section><section id="section-4"> <p>Vilade was the catalyst behind the Rays’ fifth consecutive win on Monday. He produced a career-high-tying three hits and had two RBIs, including the go-ahead single in the eighth inning off Hunter Gaddis. Tampa Bay overcame a two-run deficit to pull out a 3-2 victory.</p> </section><section id="section-5"> <p>“Whenever my name is called, I want to help my team win,” Vilade said. “It’s been good and we’re getting more gritty by the day.”</p> </section><section id="section-6"> <p>Tampa Bay acquired Vilade from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for cash on Nov. 3, 2025. He only appeared in one game with the Reds after playing in seven for the St. Louis Cardinals earlier last season.</p> </section><section id="section-7"> <p>Those brief stops followed a 17-game stay with the Detroit Tigers in 2024 and a three-game stop with the Colorado Rockies in 2021. His career totals coming into this spring were nine hits in 64 at-bats (.141 average).</p> </section><section id="section-8"> <p>Vilade currently is batting .344 on the season, and he is 4-for-10 with runners in scoring position. His two-game streaks of multiple hits and an RBI are career firsts.</p> </section><section id="section-9"> <p>“Ryno really complements our team really well and helps us all over the field,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said.</p> </section><section id="section-10"> <p>Veteran pitcher Steven Matz, who earned the win in the series opener, also is impressed with Vilade’s contributions on and off the field.</p> </section><br/><section id="section-11"> <p>“Ryan has such a great personality and has fit right in,” Matz said. “That’s the great thing about this group. Everyone feels like they fit in and there aren’t any cliques or anything in the clubhouse.”</p> </section> <section id="section-12"> <p>Assuming he remains in the lineup on Tuesday, Vilade will try to help Martinez win a second straight start. </p> </section><section id="section-13"> <p>Martinez limited the Reds to one run in eight innings while striking out a season-high six on Wednesday. He has struggled badly in six career outings (two starts) against Cleveland, going 1-2 with an 8.56 ERA.</p> </section><section id="section-14"> <p>The Guardians have lost three in a row, their longest skid of the season, and appear to have reached a turning point after falling to .500 for the first time since March 31.</p> </section><section id="section-15"> <p>Cleveland is expected to recall former No. 1 overall draft pick Travis Bazzana from Triple-A Columbus before Tuesday game and make him its everyday second baseman. The Australian had a .287 average with two homers, 10 RBIs and eight stolen bases in 24 games with the Clippers.</p> </section><section id="section-16"> <p>“We know it’s a long season,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “We’re 30 games in. There’s a long way to go. And again, for a lot of our guys, they’re in these situations for maybe the first or second time.”</p> </section><section id="section-17"> <p>Cleveland hopes Bazzana can adapt as quickly as rookie outfielder Chase DeLauter, who hit four homers in his first three career regular-season games. DeLauter doubled in the ninth inning Monday off Bryan Baker, giving the Guardians two on with one out, but the Tampa Bay closer struck out the next two batters for his seventh save.</p> </section><section id="section-18"> <p>DeLauter has collected a hit in five of his past six contests, and he has reached base in 24 of 27 total games. He also is the eighth-hardest player to strike out in the majors.</p> </section><section id="section-19"> <p>“The moment’s not too big for him,” Vogt said. “Chase has been great all year and continues to have good at-bats.”</p> </section><section id="section-20"> <p>Once considered Cleveland’s ace in waiting, Bibee has put together strong starts in his past two outings, tossing 12 innings of two-run ball against the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros. The Guardians are 1-5 in his six starts.</p> </section><section id="section-21"> <p>Bibee beat the Rays the first time he faced them in 2023, but he is 1-2 with a 4.21 ERA against them in four career starts. He has worked deep into games vs. Tampa Bay, averaging more than 6 1/3 innings per appearance.</p> </section><br/><section id="section-22"> <p>–Field Level Media</p> </section> </div> #Deadspin #Ryan #Vilade #Rays #chase #seriesclinching #win #Guardians

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Deadspin | Mariners reinstate RHP Matt Brash from injured list Oct 16, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Matt Brash (47) throws in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images The Seattle Mariners reinstated right-hander Matt Brash from the injured list and optioned left-hander Robinson Ortiz to Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday. Brash, 28, landed on the 15-day IL on May 1 with inflammation in his right lat. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 relief appearances this season with Seattle, which is 12-2 when he appears in a game. Brash is 16-11 with a 3.10 ERA and eight saves in 184 games (five starts) since making his major league debut with the Mariners in 2022. He missed the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery. Ortiz, 26, was recalled from Tacoma on Monday but has yet to make his MLB debut. He is 0-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 15 relief appearances in Triple-A this season. –Field Level Media #Deadspin #Mariners #reinstate #RHP #Matt #Brash #injured #listOct 16, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Matt Brash (47) throws in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

The Seattle Mariners reinstated right-hander Matt Brash from the injured list and optioned left-hander Robinson Ortiz to Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday.

Brash, 28, landed on the 15-day IL on May 1 with inflammation in his right lat. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 relief appearances this season with Seattle, which is 12-2 when he appears in a game.


Brash is 16-11 with a 3.10 ERA and eight saves in 184 games (five starts) since making his major league debut with the Mariners in 2022. He missed the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery.

Ortiz, 26, was recalled from Tacoma on Monday but has yet to make his MLB debut. He is 0-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 15 relief appearances in Triple-A this season.

–Field Level Media

#Deadspin #Mariners #reinstate #RHP #Matt #Brash #injured #list">Deadspin | Mariners reinstate RHP Matt Brash from injured list Oct 16, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Matt Brash (47) throws in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during game four of the ALCS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images The Seattle Mariners reinstated right-hander Matt Brash from the injured list and optioned left-hander Robinson Ortiz to Triple-A Tacoma on Wednesday. Brash, 28, landed on the 15-day IL on May 1 with inflammation in his right lat. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 relief appearances this season with Seattle, which is 12-2 when he appears in a game. Brash is 16-11 with a 3.10 ERA and eight saves in 184 games (five starts) since making his major league debut with the Mariners in 2022. He missed the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery. Ortiz, 26, was recalled from Tacoma on Monday but has yet to make his MLB debut. He is 0-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 15 relief appearances in Triple-A this season. –Field Level Media #Deadspin #Mariners #reinstate #RHP #Matt #Brash #injured #list

Bunting in Major League Baseball is the ultimate tool of confirmation bias, stretching from the most anti-analytics “he’s got a great swing” truthers to those who watch baseball on a spreadsheet — all of them can love the bunt.

Traditionalists will enjoy the old-school approach of bunting as a way to advance runners into scoring position. Some who hate the pitcher-dominant game will delight in the refusal to indulge the swing-and-miss world by just not swinging. Others, who love analytics and Moneyball, will point out that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.

But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.

First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies.

As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical.

First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.

Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best.

That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason.

As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about.

Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?

Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order.

And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy.

Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask.

I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally.

There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better.

#MLBs #bunting #boom #mirage">Why MLB’s bunting boom is a mirage Bunting in Major League Baseball is the ultimate tool of confirmation bias, stretching from the most anti-analytics “he’s got a great swing” truthers to those who watch baseball on a spreadsheet — all of them can love the bunt.Traditionalists will enjoy the old-school approach of bunting as a way to advance runners into scoring position. Some who hate the pitcher-dominant game will delight in the refusal to indulge the swing-and-miss world by just not swinging. Others, who love analytics and Moneyball, will point out that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies.As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical.First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best.That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason.As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about.Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order.And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy.Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask.I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally. There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better. #MLBs #bunting #boom #mirage

that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.

But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.

First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies.

As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical.

First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.

Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best.

That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason.

As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about.

Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?

Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order.

And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy.

Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask.

I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally.

There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better.

#MLBs #bunting #boom #mirage">Why MLB’s bunting boom is a mirage

Bunting in Major League Baseball is the ultimate tool of confirmation bias, stretching from the most anti-analytics “he’s got a great swing” truthers to those who watch baseball on a spreadsheet — all of them can love the bunt.

Traditionalists will enjoy the old-school approach of bunting as a way to advance runners into scoring position. Some who hate the pitcher-dominant game will delight in the refusal to indulge the swing-and-miss world by just not swinging. Others, who love analytics and Moneyball, will point out that bunting in 2026 could be the ultimate edge in a world that has embraced strikeout-embracing power hitting. There’s something for everyone with the bunt.

But is that something actually there? With the 2026 MLB Bunting Revolution very much taking place, we must investigate if the success of the American League-leading Tampa Bay Rays is actually due to a statistically significant increase in bunts, or if the Buntassiance is actually a Bunt Mirage. In short: I’m team Bunt Mirage.

First, some rudimentary statistics about bunting in our postmodern society: bunting has increased overall this year, though it would be incorrect to say teams are bunting more across the board. Plenty of MLB teams have actually been bunting less than in 2025, including some powerhouses like the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and the sport’s hottest team: the Philadelphia Phillies. All three essentially never bunt. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres, who were the MLB’s top bunting team last year at .30 sacrifice bunts per game, have cut that down by two-thirds amid their bid to win the National League West over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It is, however, true that the Tampa Bay Rays are bunting more than any team since pitchers stopped hitting in 2021 and the most period since the 2017 Colorado Rockies.

As of this writing, the Rays are 32-15, and hold a three game lead over the bunt-avoidant Yankees in the American League East. This has led to some discussions about if high-contact teams that skimp on power might be the next thing, and it has been heralded with much rejoicing by the bunt community. But I am supremely skeptical.

First and foremost, we are talking about 17 bunts here. Tampa Bay is fourth in the MLB in hits with 416, so right off the bat (pun moderately intended) we are hit with a sample size problem: any suggestion that bunts are correlated with wins relies on a problematically low number of events relative to other data we could be using. Saying “bunting” is why the Tampa Bay Rays are winning is like saying you and your neighbor’s lawn signs specifically swung the local school committee race. Like … maybe, but there were probably more powerful forces at work.

Using data that is sufficiently large, the Rays simply do not have the underlying analytics of the best team in the American League. Offensively, they have the largest positive difference between expected and actual average, slugging, and contact quality. Their pitching has enjoyed similar aberrations, with the best of those expected versus actual metrics from opposing hitters save for slugging, in which they are second-best.

That’s a mouthful, but all any of that really means is that the Rays have been hitting far better and their opponents have been hitting far worse than the data suggests they should be. In short, they’ve been lucky with whatever cosmic, intergalactic soup controls how baseballs fly on any given day. None of those metrics are influenced significantly by their 17 sacrifice bunts, which do not actually count against the hitters on base percentage for some completely unknown reason.

As for bunting itself, I’m not breaking new ground here when I tell you that bunting is almost-always bad for your baseball team. Using fancy-schmancy, albeit a tad-outmoded run-expectancy metrics, we find that all but the most specific sacrifice bunts reduce your chances of scoring runs. When Brad Pitt said “no bunting whatsoever” in Moneyball, that’s what he was talking about.

Using slightly more in-moded win probability metrics and this wonderful thing call the Game Strategy explorer on BaseballSavant.com, we discover that there are sacrifice bunts that increase your win probability, but only hyper specific ones: if there is a runner on second with zero outs and the game is tied in the bottom of the 8th, top of the 9th, bottom of the ninth or bottom of the 10th inning, a sacrifice bunt increases your probability of winning. That is it. It is literally never good when you are winning, it is literally never good if you are losing, it is literally never good anytime before the 8th inning or with more than zero outs, heck it is literally never good when the game is tied in the top of 10th inning. And all of that still implies that the bunt is successful, which is by no means a guarantee. Are you starting to see where I’m coming from?

Most notably, the beloved “bunt with a man on first with no outs” is never a good idea under any circumstances, but I think it’s better to unpack this one intuitively rather than just tell you it’s bad. Why would a manager bunt with a man on first? Because it puts a runner in scoring position roughly 65 percent of the time (the success rate of your average sac bunt attempt). Seems good right? Sure, but that also implies there is a radically better chance of getting an RBI hit in the next at bat rather than the current one, often why you see nine-hole hitters bunt to bring up the top of the order.

And perhaps there is, under extremely specific circumstances, an opportunity to raise your chances of an RBI hit by five to eight percent by bringing up a hitter with a better batting average. But it does not raise your chances of scoring a run, just that of an RBI hit in the next at-bat. And that is not, under any circumstances, worth an entire out. Bunting with a man on first with no outs is an effort by managers to control a game that often feels like a progression of random events. But no data or intuitive explanation supports that strategy.

Much has been written about the specific situations when bunting is good (tied, man on second, no outs, late innings), but just because those situations exist does not mean bunting is broadly a good strategy. In the big picture, laying down these ultra-specific bunts is too rare an occurrence to suggest they are the reasons for wins and losses. It’s just too small a data set and too specific an ask.

I concede that the Rays are constructed basically to ignore power hitting in favor of making contact to keep runners moving, but I do not concede that has anything to do with bunting now being a good idea. The argument for bunting put forth by Rays Manager Kevin Cash that “hitting is (bad word) hard” does not mean bunting has somehow gotten easier — sac bunt success rates has improved since pitchers stopped hitting, but only marginally.

There are specific instances when bunting is good, but I do not believe those instances are common enough nor statistically significant to suggest that bunting is somehow the great edge in Major League Baseball and everyone needs to follow the Rays to bunting Valhalla. It can be surprising and even effective if it results in a bunt-hit, but the skill set required to do that is so rare and esoteric that it is never worthwhile to invest in. I’d rather my hitters just swing the bat, which is cooler, more exciting and, wonderfully, just analytically better.

#MLBs #bunting #boom #mirage

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