A lot of what we knew about the 2026 NFL Draft is going to be shaken up. The Scouting Combine has that effect on things. This is the first chance we take the on-field production from the previous college season, and match it up with not just individual workouts, but more importantly, the team interviews behind closed doors that convince organizations on their guys.

If you think the Combine doesn’t matter, then look at last year. Entering Indianapolis, we had James Pearce Jr. locked as a Top 10 pick, and he ended up falling to No. 26 because his interview caused a lot of teams to pull him off their boards (they were right). Jaxson Dart was seen a fridge 2nd or 3rd round pick, but the combine began the process that pushed him up to No. 25. While we’re largely past the “workout warrior” fanaticism that led to so many busted picks in the 2000s and early 2010s, there’s still a lot a prospect can do that either helps, or hurts them at Indy.

Here’s my final mock draft ahead of the workouts and meetings, as well as some notes on who I think could really rise or fall after the weekend.

What I think will change after the combine

No. 1: A quarterback is going to make a big jump

It’s widely accepted that the only QB worth a damn in this class is Fernando Mendoza, but I’m not sold on this at all — at least when it comes to who will be taken in the first round. It was really tempting to mock a QB to the Steelers, but I’m not even sure Pittsburgh knows that they’re doing at the position at this point.

Ty Simpson is really going to impress teams in Indianapolis. I think he’s going to interview really well, and I’ll tell you the idea I can’t shake: Simpson to the Rams at No. 13. That was the pick they got from the Falcons last year, and it’s a rare case where they could find their QB of the future with a selection they never should have gotten, setting them up for another decade.

There’s a lot of similarities between Simpson and Matthew Stafford when he was coming out of college. I could really see Sean McVay and Co. loving the idea of grabbing him early, stashing him for a year or two under Stafford, and having a seamless transition when the reigning MVP is ready to retire.

Outside of that, keep an eye on Cole Payton out of North Dakota State. Here’s a guy who was trending as a late-round pick, but there have been some murmurs about him. There’s a serious chance he could sneak into the 2nd or 3rd round conversation — perhaps even higher.

No. 2: Caleb Downs has everything to win or lose in Indy

There’s no doubt that safety is the most bizarrely devalued defensive position in the NFL right now. Bad teams keep ignoring getting an upgrade at safety, which has allowed good teams to snatch them up and turn them into difference makers. Look no further than Kyle Hamilton with the Ravens, or Nick Emmanwori and the Seahawks.

Caleb Downs might be the single best all-around safety I have seen enter the pros. The biggest knock on him is that he’s a little undisciplined as a pass rusher, but thats such a small knock for the considerable upside he offers in every other area of the game.

Right now I have him going to the Bengals at No. 10, which is the perfect pick for them. That said, a smart team could grab him sooner — or Cincinnati will get cold feet based on his drills and pass him down to a better team. There’s a lot to be gained or lost through how Downs interviews and performs in Indy, and that could determine if he’s a Top 10 pick, or headed to a playoff team.

No. 3: Does Jeremiyah Love climb even more?

Right now I have him going No. 9 to the Chiefs, as a lot of mocks tend to do — but we’ve seen this pattern lately of running backs climbing higher than most mocks have them going. Ashton Jeanty is a great example of this, as he was mocked outside of the Top 10 ahead of the combine, then climbed all the way to the No. 6 pick.

There are several RB-need teams higher up in the Top 10, and the drop off at the position following Love is massive. It wouldn’t surprise me if there’s some talk about him rising after Indianapolis.