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Polymarket Trader Who Won Big on Start of Iran War Betting Even Bigger on Impending Ceasefire

Polymarket Trader Who Won Big on Start of Iran War Betting Even Bigger on Impending Ceasefire

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On Sunday, X user @itslirrato (bio: “chief prediction markets enjoyer”) noticed some suspicious activity on Polymarket. Ten accounts with no clear relationship other than their activity were all betting on a ceasefire in Iran by the end of the month. In total, they’ve bet $160,000, and if their prediction is correct, their winnings will total $1.04 million.

 

According to Gordon Gottsegen of MarketWatch, one of those accounts, named NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS, is the most suspicious of all. The account was created at the end of February, and got its start by placing two similar bets—one for $11,283, and one for $7,600—on U.S. strikes against Iran by February 28 and by March first. U.S. strikes started on February 28, so both bets paid out to the tune of $85,000 total.

And now, see for yourself: NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS has two more active bets: $16,582.45 if “US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?” resolves to “yes,” and $24,265.52 if “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?” resolves to “yes.” 

Shortly after a bipartisan pair of Senators, Adam Schiff and John Curtis, introduced something called the “Prediction Markets are Gambling Act,” on Monday—which would ban sports betting on Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi—both sites announced new actions to police for insider trading.

According to the Associated Press, Polymarket, for its part, changed its rules such that users—athletes, most notably—are banned from trading on contracts if they may have the ability to influence whether or not the event occurs, or if they have confidential knowledge of the relevant event. While most obviously designed for, say, professional boxers, the new policy could impact government officials and private contractors with security clearance.



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After days of almost (and complete) darkness, the Moon is finally starting to reappear. We’re currently in the Waxing Crescent phase of the lunar cycle, which means each night until the Full Moon we’ll see it get more illuminated from the right side.

What is today’s Moon phase?

As of Sunday, April 19, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 5% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

Despite more of it now being illuminated, the percentage of surface is still too little to be able to spot any surface details. Check again tomorrow.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. We call these the lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April">Moon phase today explained: What the Moon will look like on April 19, 2026 After days of almost (and complete) darkness, the Moon is finally starting to reappear. We’re currently in the Waxing Crescent phase of the lunar cycle, which means each night until the Full Moon we’ll see it get more illuminated from the right side.What is today’s Moon phase?As of Sunday, April 19, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 5% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.Despite more of it now being illuminated, the percentage of surface is still too little to be able to spot any surface details. Check again tomorrow. When is the next Full Moon?The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.What are Moon phases?NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. We call these the lunar phases, and there are eight in total:New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye). Mashable Light Speed Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again. #Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April

Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 5% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

Despite more of it now being illuminated, the percentage of surface is still too little to be able to spot any surface details. Check again tomorrow.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. We call these the lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April">Moon phase today explained: What the Moon will look like on April 19, 2026

After days of almost (and complete) darkness, the Moon is finally starting to reappear. We’re currently in the Waxing Crescent phase of the lunar cycle, which means each night until the Full Moon we’ll see it get more illuminated from the right side.

What is today’s Moon phase?

As of Sunday, April 19, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 5% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

Despite more of it now being illuminated, the percentage of surface is still too little to be able to spot any surface details. Check again tomorrow.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. We call these the lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April
According to Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.

The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.

Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.

The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.

#RAM #shortage #yearsAI,News,Tech">The RAM shortage could last yearsAccording to Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.#RAM #shortage #yearsAI,News,Tech

Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.

The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.

Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.

The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.

#RAM #shortage #yearsAI,News,Tech">The RAM shortage could last years

According to Nikkei Asia, even as suppliers ramp up DRAM production, manufacturers are only expected to meet 60 percent of demand by the end of 2027. SK Group chairman has even said that shortages could last until 2030.

The world’s largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are all working to add new fabrication capacity, but almost none of it will be online until at least 2027, if not 2028. SK opened a fab in Cheongju in February, but that is the only increase in production among the three for 2026.

Nikkei says that production would need to increase by 12 percent a year in 2026 and 2027 to meet demand. But according to Counterpoint Research, an increase of only 7.5 percent is planned.

The new facilities will primarily focus on producing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is used in AI data centers. With the companies already prioritizing HBM over general-purpose DRAM used in computers and phones, it’s not clear how much these new fabs will help alleviate the price crunch facing consumer electronics. Everything from phones and laptops, to VR headsets and gaming handhelds have seen price increases due to the RAM shortage.

#RAM #shortage #yearsAI,News,Tech
Tesla is expanding its robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston, according to a social media post from the company.

The post says simply that “Robotaxi is now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠” and includes a 14-second video showing Tesla vehicles driving without human monitors or drivers in the front seat.

The company now offers robotaxi service in three cities, all of them in Texas, after launching in Austin last year and starting to offer rides without safety drivers in January 2026. In a February filing, Tesla said that its Austin robotaxis have been involved in 14 crashes since launch.

It also offers a more limited ride service with human drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Tesla may not be running many vehicles in either of these new markets yet, with crowdsourced data on the Robotaxi Tracker website only registering a single vehicle in each city (compared to 46 active vehicles logged in Austin).

#Tesla #brings #robotaxi #service #Dallas #Houston #TechCrunchHouston,robotaxi,Tesla">Tesla brings its robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston | TechCrunch Tesla is expanding its robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston, according to a social media post from the company. The post says simply that “Robotaxi is now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠” and includes a 14-second video showing Tesla vehicles driving without human monitors or drivers in the front seat. The company now offers robotaxi service in three cities, all of them in Texas, after launching in Austin last year and starting to offer rides without safety drivers in January 2026. In a February filing, Tesla said that its Austin robotaxis have been involved in 14 crashes since launch. It also offers a more limited ride service with human drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area. Tesla may not be running many vehicles in either of these new markets yet, with crowdsourced data on the Robotaxi Tracker website only registering a single vehicle in each city (compared to 46 active vehicles logged in Austin). #Tesla #brings #robotaxi #service #Dallas #Houston #TechCrunchHouston,robotaxi,Tesla

a social media post from the company.

The post says simply that “Robotaxi is now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠” and includes a 14-second video showing Tesla vehicles driving without human monitors or drivers in the front seat.

The company now offers robotaxi service in three cities, all of them in Texas, after launching in Austin last year and starting to offer rides without safety drivers in January 2026. In a February filing, Tesla said that its Austin robotaxis have been involved in 14 crashes since launch.

It also offers a more limited ride service with human drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Tesla may not be running many vehicles in either of these new markets yet, with crowdsourced data on the Robotaxi Tracker website only registering a single vehicle in each city (compared to 46 active vehicles logged in Austin).

#Tesla #brings #robotaxi #service #Dallas #Houston #TechCrunchHouston,robotaxi,Tesla">Tesla brings its robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston | TechCrunch

Tesla is expanding its robotaxi service to Dallas and Houston, according to a social media post from the company.

The post says simply that “Robotaxi is now rolling out in Dallas & Houston 🤠” and includes a 14-second video showing Tesla vehicles driving without human monitors or drivers in the front seat.

The company now offers robotaxi service in three cities, all of them in Texas, after launching in Austin last year and starting to offer rides without safety drivers in January 2026. In a February filing, Tesla said that its Austin robotaxis have been involved in 14 crashes since launch.

It also offers a more limited ride service with human drivers in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Tesla may not be running many vehicles in either of these new markets yet, with crowdsourced data on the Robotaxi Tracker website only registering a single vehicle in each city (compared to 46 active vehicles logged in Austin).

#Tesla #brings #robotaxi #service #Dallas #Houston #TechCrunchHouston,robotaxi,Tesla

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