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The AI Industry’s Scaling Obsession Is Headed for a Cliff

The AI Industry’s Scaling Obsession Is Headed for a Cliff

A new study from MIT suggests the biggest and most computationally intensive AI models may soon offer diminishing returns compared to smaller models. By mapping scaling laws against continued improvements in model efficiency, the researchers found that it could become harder to wring leaps in performance from giant models whereas efficiency gains could make models running on more modest hardware increasingly capable over the next decade.

“In the next five to 10 years, things are very likely to start narrowing,” says Neil Thompson, a computer scientist and professor at MIT involved in the study.

Leaps in efficiency, like those seen with DeepSeek’s remarkably low-cost model in January, have already served as a reality check for the AI industry, which is accustomed to burning massive amounts of compute.

As things stand, a frontier model from a company like OpenAI is currently much better than a model trained with a fraction of the compute from an academic lab. While the MIT team’s prediction might not hold if, for example, new training methods like reinforcement learning produce surprising new results, they suggest that big AI firms will have less of an edge in the future.

Hans Gundlach, a research scientist at MIT who led the analysis, became interested in the issue due to the unwieldy nature of running cutting edge models. Together with Thompson and Jayson Lynch, another research scientist at MIT, he mapped out the future performance of frontier models compared to those built with more modest computational means. Gundlach says the predicted trend is especially pronounced for the reasoning models that are now in vogue, which rely more on extra computation during inference.

Thompson says the results show the value of honing an algorithm as well as scaling up compute. “If you are spending a lot of money training these models, then you should absolutely be spending some of it trying to develop more efficient algorithms, because that can matter hugely,” he adds.

The study is particularly interesting given today’s AI infrastructure boom (or should we say “bubble”?)—which shows little sign of slowing down.

OpenAI and other US tech firms have signed hundred-billion-dollar deals to build AI infrastructure in the United States. “The world needs much more compute,” OpenAI’s president, Greg Brockman, proclaimed this week as he announced a partnership between OpenAI and Broadcom for custom AI chips.

A growing number of experts are questioning the soundness of these deals. Roughly 60 percent of the cost of building a data center goes toward GPUs, which tend to depreciate quickly. Partnerships between the major players also appear circular and opaque.

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The New Moon has now passed, which means each night the Moon will appear bigger and brighter in the sky. This happens as more of its sunlit side comes into view from Earth. From now, it will become more illuminated each night until the next full Moon.

What is today’s Moon phase?

As of Saturday, April 18, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 1% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

The Moon is starting to brighten again, but for now, there’s still to little of its surface lit up to see anything.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. These shifting appearances are called lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April">Moon phase today explained: What the Moon will look like on April 18, 2026
                                                            The New Moon has now passed, which means each night the Moon will appear bigger and brighter in the sky. This happens as more of its sunlit side comes into view from Earth. From now, it will become more illuminated each night until the next full Moon.What is today’s Moon phase?As of Saturday, April 18, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 1% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.The Moon is starting to brighten again, but for now, there’s still to little of its surface lit up to see anything. 
When is the next Full Moon?The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.What are Moon phases?NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. These shifting appearances are called lunar phases, and there are eight in total:New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).
        
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Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

                    
                                    #Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April

Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 1% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

The Moon is starting to brighten again, but for now, there’s still to little of its surface lit up to see anything.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. These shifting appearances are called lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April">Moon phase today explained: What the Moon will look like on April 18, 2026

The New Moon has now passed, which means each night the Moon will appear bigger and brighter in the sky. This happens as more of its sunlit side comes into view from Earth. From now, it will become more illuminated each night until the next full Moon.

What is today’s Moon phase?

As of Saturday, April 18, the Moon phase is Waxing Crescent. Tonight, 1% of the moon will be lit up, according to NASA’s Daily Moon Guide.

The Moon is starting to brighten again, but for now, there’s still to little of its surface lit up to see anything.

When is the next Full Moon?

The next Full Moon is predicted to take place on May 1, the first of two in May.

What are Moon phases?

NASA states that the Moon takes about 29.5 days to orbit Earth, during which it passes through eight distinct phases. We always see the same side of the Moon, but the amount of sunlight reflecting off it changes as it moves along its orbit, creating the familiar pattern of full, partial, and crescent shapes. These shifting appearances are called lunar phases, and there are eight in total:

New Moon – The Moon is between Earth and the sun, so the side we see is dark (in other words, it’s invisible to the eye).

Waxing Crescent – A small sliver of light appears on the right side (Northern Hemisphere).

First Quarter – Half of the Moon is lit on the right side. It looks like a half-Moon.

Waxing Gibbous – More than half is lit up, but it’s not quite full yet.

Full Moon – The whole face of the Moon is illuminated and fully visible.

Waning Gibbous – The Moon starts losing light on the right side. (Northern Hemisphere)

Third Quarter (or Last Quarter) – Another half-Moon, but now the left side is lit.

Waning Crescent – A thin sliver of light remains on the left side before going dark again.

#Moon #phase #today #explained #Moon #April

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