A new study from MIT suggests the biggest and most computationally intensive AI models may soon offer diminishing returns compared to smaller models. By mapping scaling laws against continued improvements in model efficiency, the researchers found that it could become harder to wring leaps in performance from giant models whereas efficiency gains could make models running on more modest hardware increasingly capable over the next decade.
“In the next five to 10 years, things are very likely to start narrowing,” says Neil Thompson, a computer scientist and professor at MIT involved in the study.
Leaps in efficiency, like those seen with DeepSeek’s remarkably low-cost model in January, have already served as a reality check for the AI industry, which is accustomed to burning massive amounts of compute.
As things stand, a frontier model from a company like OpenAI is currently much better than a model trained with a fraction of the compute from an academic lab. While the MIT team’s prediction might not hold if, for example, new training methods like reinforcement learning produce surprising new results, they suggest that big AI firms will have less of an edge in the future.
Hans Gundlach, a research scientist at MIT who led the analysis, became interested in the issue due to the unwieldy nature of running cutting edge models. Together with Thompson and Jayson Lynch, another research scientist at MIT, he mapped out the future performance of frontier models compared to those built with more modest computational means. Gundlach says the predicted trend is especially pronounced for the reasoning models that are now in vogue, which rely more on extra computation during inference.
Thompson says the results show the value of honing an algorithm as well as scaling up compute. “If you are spending a lot of money training these models, then you should absolutely be spending some of it trying to develop more efficient algorithms, because that can matter hugely,” he adds.
The study is particularly interesting given today’s AI infrastructure boom (or should we say “bubble”?)—which shows little sign of slowing down.
OpenAI and other US tech firms have signed hundred-billion-dollar deals to build AI infrastructure in the United States. “The world needs much more compute,” OpenAI’s president, Greg Brockman, proclaimed this week as he announced a partnership between OpenAI and Broadcom for custom AI chips.
A growing number of experts are questioning the soundness of these deals. Roughly 60 percent of the cost of building a data center goes toward GPUs, which tend to depreciate quickly. Partnerships between the major players also appear circular and opaque.
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![A24 Wants You to Be Nice About Its Google AI Deal
Earlier this week, we learned A24 entered a research partnership with Google’s DeepMind unit. The reactions were… not happy, to say the least. And like many who’ve let generative AI into their hearts, the film studio’s now left playing defense for its widely panned decision. In a statement to Wired, A24’s communications rep Sophia Shin stressed the “research” part of its Google partnership. “We’re working side-by-side with DeepMind’s researchers to learn, iterate, and build, having an active hand in shaping new tools and workflows,” she explained. “This is about learning and helping pain points in workflows behind the scenes. […] It exists because we want to dictate what tools get built for artists, so they have a voice in shaping them rather than having tools handed to them. While acknowledging A24 doesn’t love “any of the current AI outputs onscreen in Hollywood,” Shin considers this partnership a bit of a necessary evil. “We’d rather have a seat at the table than on the sidelines,” she stated. The promise of further artist agency and “a seat at the table” are common shields from genAI users, but it doesn’t seem to be working here. Fans consider this move ironic and a betrayal, given Backrooms director Kane Parsons recently called the tech “cultural and economic rot” and wished he could just snap it out of existence.
Before that, the studio didn’t seem to have much interest in generative AI. In 2024, it came under fire for using the tech to create posters for Civil War, while months later, its horror film Heretic had a disclaimer promising it wasn’t made with the technology. But Hollywood’s become gradually more accepting of generative AI and its supposed potential for the filmmaking process. In that sense, maybe it was inevitable for A24 to fall in line. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #A24 #Nice #Google #DealA24,generative ai,Google DeepMind A24 Wants You to Be Nice About Its Google AI Deal
Earlier this week, we learned A24 entered a research partnership with Google’s DeepMind unit. The reactions were… not happy, to say the least. And like many who’ve let generative AI into their hearts, the film studio’s now left playing defense for its widely panned decision. In a statement to Wired, A24’s communications rep Sophia Shin stressed the “research” part of its Google partnership. “We’re working side-by-side with DeepMind’s researchers to learn, iterate, and build, having an active hand in shaping new tools and workflows,” she explained. “This is about learning and helping pain points in workflows behind the scenes. […] It exists because we want to dictate what tools get built for artists, so they have a voice in shaping them rather than having tools handed to them. While acknowledging A24 doesn’t love “any of the current AI outputs onscreen in Hollywood,” Shin considers this partnership a bit of a necessary evil. “We’d rather have a seat at the table than on the sidelines,” she stated. The promise of further artist agency and “a seat at the table” are common shields from genAI users, but it doesn’t seem to be working here. Fans consider this move ironic and a betrayal, given Backrooms director Kane Parsons recently called the tech “cultural and economic rot” and wished he could just snap it out of existence.
Before that, the studio didn’t seem to have much interest in generative AI. In 2024, it came under fire for using the tech to create posters for Civil War, while months later, its horror film Heretic had a disclaimer promising it wasn’t made with the technology. But Hollywood’s become gradually more accepting of generative AI and its supposed potential for the filmmaking process. In that sense, maybe it was inevitable for A24 to fall in line. Want more io9 news? Check out when to expect the latest Marvel, Star Wars, and Star Trek releases, what’s next for the DC Universe on film and TV, and everything you need to know about the future of Doctor Who. #A24 #Nice #Google #DealA24,generative ai,Google DeepMind](https://gizmodo.com/app/uploads/2026/03/Backrooms-1280x853.jpg)
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