Arch Manning is heading back to Texas.

The Longhorns are on their way to Florida later this month to take on Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, but ahead of that game the young quarterback confirmed that he would be heading back to college for at least another season. In a text message to Dave Wilson of ESPN, Cooper Manning stated that “Arch is playing football at Texas next year.”

Here’s an updated 2026 NFL mock draft without Manning. His decision impacts the outlook for QB-needy teams in 2026 and 2027.

What Manning’s decision means for the 2026 NFL Draft

What does Arch Manning’s decision to return to school mean for the 2026 NFL Draft?

It means options for teams that need a QB are dwindling.

Manning is the latest quarterback to take his name out of the running for next spring. Earlier this month, South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers announced he was also returning to campus for next season, and now with Manning joining him, two quarterback who were at least in the first round discussion are now heading back to school.

The buzz around Manning heading into the season was quickly tamped down after the redshirt sophomore got off to a slow start. Not only did Texas lose their season-opening game against Ohio State, after beginning the year ranked No. 1 in the nation, but Manning struggled in both wins (see his uneven performance in a victory over UTEP) and losses (he threw two interceptions as Texas lost to a Florida team that was on the verge of firing their head coach).

However, over the second half of the season Manning started to shine. His performance against Vanderbilt, a three-touchdown affair that was at that point Texas’ best win of the season, certainly turned some heads. As did a win in the season finale against unbeaten Texas A&M. While the Longhorns missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff, Manning’s stock began to rise anew. Nate Tice of Yahoo Sports, one of the best quarterback evaluators in the media space, declared in late November that if he were to enter the draft, Manning would be in line for the No. 1 pick.

Now he is heading back to campus.

Where does that leave the current 2026 quarterback class? Still with some questions to be answered. It is widely believed that Fernando Mendoza, fresh off winning both the Big Ten Championship Game and the Heisman Trophy, will declare for the draft, and he could be the first quarterback taken if he does declare.

But he has not confirmed his plans.

Oregon’s Dante Moore is considered another top prospect, but he has eligibility remaining and has also yet to state his intentions.

Even if Mendoza and Moore declare, look at the top of the current draft order. The New York Jets, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Cleveland Browns are just three of the teams currently inside the top-10 that could be in the quarterback game next spring. Beyond those three teams, the Arizona Cardinals face a decision regarding Kyler Murray, with the Cardinals currently sitting at No. 6. Perhaps the New Orleans Saints are content to roll ahead with Tyler Shough, but lurking at No. 10 are the Los Angeles Rams, who own the Atlanta Falcons’ first-round pick due to the James Pierce trade. Les Snead could be looking to add a quarterback of the future.

Feel free to check my math, but that is more than two teams.

There are, of course, other options. Ty Simpson played himself into the first-round discussion with a strong stretch of play in the middle of the year, but some subpar games as Alabama closed out their regular season have seen his stock fade a bit, and he could return to school. Drew Allar’s injury turned him from a potential Day 1 pick into a Day 2 or Day 3 option, and while Garrett Nussmeier began the year in the first-round mix, he also faded after he and LSU struggled this season.

The major point here? Manning’s decision to return to school turned what was looking like a thin QB class to begin with into an even thinner group.

Of course, some quarterbacks will rise during the pre-draft process, something that has become almost an annual tradition. I’m old enough to remember first-round buzz for both Nathan Peterman and Davis Webb during their respective Senior Bowl runs. But until the pre-draft swing begins, this is a class with more questions than answers.

And as pointed out above, there are several teams that will be asking those questions.

What Manning’s decision means for the 2027 NFL Draft

Let’s spin things forward a bit, and assume that following another year at Texas Manning declares for the 2027 NFL Draft.

What does that potentially mean for the 2027 NFL Draft?

It means that on paper, we have a pretty deep group.

With both Manning and Sellers returning to school, you have two quarterbacks who were at least in the first-round discussion for 2026 getting another year of growth in college.

But they would not be alone in that class.

That class could also feature Julian Sayin, who ended his first year as a starter at Ohio State as a Heisman finalist. It could also feature CJ Carr from Notre Dame, whose strong first season has him among potential Heisman contenders, as compiled by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach. Also on that list? Fellow quarterbacks Gunner Stockton from Georgia, Trinidad Chambliss from Ole Miss (who is seeking another season of FBS eligibility from the NCAA), Marcel Reed at Texas A&M, Drew Mestemaker from North Texas (who could be on his way to Oklahoma State), Jayden Maiava (who could ultimately declare for this year’s draft), and Demond Williams Jr. from Washington.

Then there are other potential names lurking, such as Sam Leavitt, Brendan Sorsby, DJ Lagaway, and Dylan Raiola, all of whom have entered the transfer portal.

Finally, there are other quarterbacks being discussed for 2026 that have yet to announce a decision. What does the 2027 class look like if Simpson returns to school? Or even Moore?

So with Manning returning to school and potentially entering the draft for 2027, that QB group looks, right now, very deep. And it could get even deeper.

This is a world that Todd McShay discussed recently. Will teams go all in for the names in this year’s draft, or wait and kick the QB decision to the future, with the 2027 crop looking like a strong class:

But, there is a risk as McShay points out.

It brings us to the notion that development is not linear. While we might sit here in December of 2025 and think the 2027 quarterback class is loaded, things do change. While we can expect quarterbacks to develop over another season in college, that is not always what happens on the field. Again, heading into this year, the QB Class of 2026 looked deep. If you look back at our initial Top 32 from last spring, you’ll see quarterbacks such as Nussmeier, Allar, Cade Klubnik, and Sellers in that group.

The 2027 grass may look greener right now, but things change over the course of a year.

Manning’s decision means the 2027 quarterback class looks much more talented than the 2026 group.

But will teams be willing to play the waiting game?