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Mel Kiper’s first NFL mock draft had 6 big surprises

Mel Kiper’s first NFL mock draft had 6 big surprises

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The NFL Scouting Combine is a month away and we’re already hitting draft season. At this point everyone knows that Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will be the No. 1 overall pick, barring something catastrophic happening — but what happens from there on is anyone’s guess.

Mel Kiper Jr. is already to work with his first mock draft of the year, and while there are a lot which align with our own latest mock here at SB Nation, there are also some absolute stunners. Kiper is known for marching to his own beat when it comes to the draft and not always aligning with national sentiment, so let’s dive in.

David Bailey is the second EDGE off the board

It really could be splitting hairs when it comes to the top pass rushers in the 2026 class after Arvell Reese, but it’s still a little wild to see Texas Tech’s David Bailey passing Rueben Bain Jr. of Miami. It wasn’t long ago that Bain was projected as the No. 1 overall pick (assuming at the time the Titans were picking and didn’t need a QB), but Bailey really came on towards the end of the season.

The big question for Robert Saleh and the Titans when it comes to a pass rusher is whether or not they want more scheme versatility (which Bain Jr. offers), or perhaps a more polished player (in Bailey) who would purely be relegated to outside linebacker.

Make no mistake: Styles is a BEAST, but this would be phenomenally early for a middle linebacker to go in the draft. This would be the earliest a linebacker without a pass rush skillset would be taken since Devin White in 2019, and Luke Kuechly in 2012 before him.

Kiper calls Styles “a Top 10 player” in this year’s class, which very well could be right — but it’s a factor of linebacker being a lesser valued position where there isn’t that much of a difference between having a Top 3 middle linebacker, and someone in the 5-to-10 range. Still, the Cowboys have talked a lot about wanting to bolster their pass rush, which is why he fits the bill.

The Jets still go quarterback

There’s absolutely a need for quarterback in New York, but I’m highly skeptical that taking Ty Simpson with the No. 16 pick (as Kiper does) is the right move for them. This is a team that needs to get off the hampster wheel of QB development and develop a team that doesn’t need a young passer to flourish. There is a very good chance the Jets will be back in the Top 10 in 2027, as well being in a spot where they’ll own three first round picks — which could allow them to move up and truly get a franchise QB.

Simpson is promising, but risky. The Jets can’t afford to throw bad money after good in desperation to land a QB.

We had Delane as the No. 1 corner in our mock, going to the Miami Dolphins with the No. 11 overall pick. Kiper has him at No. 18 to the Minnesota Vikings. That isn’t so far off, but it’s more that Kiper has Jermod McCoy of Tennessee going earlier that is a little shocking.

This would be a dream scenario for the Vikings, however. They need secondary help in the worst way, and landing Delane later in the first round would be incredible for them.

C.J. Allen in the Top 20?

The multi-role linebacker from Georgia is seen as an early second round pick by most analysts, but much like the Styles pick early in the draft, Kiper is going linebacker earlier than expected once more. The Carolina Panthers take Allen at No. 19 in the mock, which is justified by the possibility they’ll lose starter Christian Roseboom in free agency.

Taking a linebacker in the first assumes the Panthers are happy with the development of their pass rush, which remains a bit of a mess. This is definitely a surprise.

The NFL goes receiver happy

This is a really good crop of receivers, but Kiper is all-in on teams going heavy into pass catchers. We had five going in the first round in our mock — which felt high, but Kiper has six.

Perhaps the most surprising is Chris Brazell II of Tennessee sneaking into the first round and going to the Bills, rather than Kevin Conception — who is seen as having more upside as a burner in the NFL. One thing about Brazell is that you can’t teach size, and at 6-foot-5, 200 pounds he’s an intriguing pick.

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Deadspin | Wild handle Avalanche first postseason loss in dominant fashion May 9, 2026; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Parker Kelly (17) on a breakaway against Minnesota Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt (30) in the first period of game three of the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber each finished with a goal and two assists as the Minnesota Wild pulled away for a 5-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series on Saturday night in Saint Paul, Minn. Quinn Hughes tallied a goal and an assist for Minnesota, which pulled within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Ryan Hartman and Matt Boldy also scored for the Wild. Nathan MacKinnon scored the only goal for Colorado, which lost for the first time in the postseason after entering with a 6-0 record. Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt turned aside 34 of 35 shots to earn the victory. Avalanche goaltender Scott Wedgewood allowed three goals on 12 shots before he was replaced in the second period. Mackenzie Blackwood saw his first action of the postseason and stopped 12 of 13 shots in backup duty. The teams will reconvene for Game 4 on Monday night in Minnesota. Minnesota grabbed a 2-0 lead in the first period. Kaprizov opened the scoring with 4:49 remaining in the first period. He raced toward the net, took a pass from Faber and finished with a wrist shot from the left side of the crease. Hughes scored less than two minutes later to give the Wild a two-goal advantage. He handled the puck from the left circle to the top of the slot and fired a wrist shot through traffic for the power-play goal. Another power-play goal gave Minnesota a 3-0 lead with 15:37 left in the second period. Hartman parked in front of the crease and knocked in a shot from the point by Mats Zuccarello. The Avalanche got on the scoreboard with 6:49 remaining in the second period. Wallstedt stopped Colorado’s initial shot, but MacKinnon spotted the rebound and punched it in for the power-play goal. The Wild needed only 20 seconds to respond. Faber scored on a deflection to increase the Wild’s lead to 4-1 with 6:29 to go in the second period. Boldy capped the scoring with an empty-net goal with 3.3 seconds remaining. -Field Level Media #Deadspin #Wild #handle #Avalanche #postseason #loss #dominant #fashionMay 9, 2026; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Parker Kelly (17) on a breakaway against Minnesota Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt (30) in the first period of game three of the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber each finished with a goal and two assists as the Minnesota Wild pulled away for a 5-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series on Saturday night in Saint Paul, Minn.

Quinn Hughes tallied a goal and an assist for Minnesota, which pulled within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Ryan Hartman and Matt Boldy also scored for the Wild.

Nathan MacKinnon scored the only goal for Colorado, which lost for the first time in the postseason after entering with a 6-0 record.

Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt turned aside 34 of 35 shots to earn the victory.

Avalanche goaltender Scott Wedgewood allowed three goals on 12 shots before he was replaced in the second period. Mackenzie Blackwood saw his first action of the postseason and stopped 12 of 13 shots in backup duty.

The teams will reconvene for Game 4 on Monday night in Minnesota.


Minnesota grabbed a 2-0 lead in the first period. Kaprizov opened the scoring with 4:49 remaining in the first period. He raced toward the net, took a pass from Faber and finished with a wrist shot from the left side of the crease.

Hughes scored less than two minutes later to give the Wild a two-goal advantage. He handled the puck from the left circle to the top of the slot and fired a wrist shot through traffic for the power-play goal.

Another power-play goal gave Minnesota a 3-0 lead with 15:37 left in the second period. Hartman parked in front of the crease and knocked in a shot from the point by Mats Zuccarello.

The Avalanche got on the scoreboard with 6:49 remaining in the second period. Wallstedt stopped Colorado’s initial shot, but MacKinnon spotted the rebound and punched it in for the power-play goal.

The Wild needed only 20 seconds to respond. Faber scored on a deflection to increase the Wild’s lead to 4-1 with 6:29 to go in the second period.

Boldy capped the scoring with an empty-net goal with 3.3 seconds remaining.

-Field Level Media

#Deadspin #Wild #handle #Avalanche #postseason #loss #dominant #fashion">Deadspin | Wild handle Avalanche first postseason loss in dominant fashion May 9, 2026; Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Parker Kelly (17) on a breakaway against Minnesota Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt (30) in the first period of game three of the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Grand Casino Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber each finished with a goal and two assists as the Minnesota Wild pulled away for a 5-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinals series on Saturday night in Saint Paul, Minn. Quinn Hughes tallied a goal and an assist for Minnesota, which pulled within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Ryan Hartman and Matt Boldy also scored for the Wild. Nathan MacKinnon scored the only goal for Colorado, which lost for the first time in the postseason after entering with a 6-0 record. Wild goaltender Jesper Wallstedt turned aside 34 of 35 shots to earn the victory. Avalanche goaltender Scott Wedgewood allowed three goals on 12 shots before he was replaced in the second period. Mackenzie Blackwood saw his first action of the postseason and stopped 12 of 13 shots in backup duty. The teams will reconvene for Game 4 on Monday night in Minnesota. Minnesota grabbed a 2-0 lead in the first period. Kaprizov opened the scoring with 4:49 remaining in the first period. He raced toward the net, took a pass from Faber and finished with a wrist shot from the left side of the crease. Hughes scored less than two minutes later to give the Wild a two-goal advantage. He handled the puck from the left circle to the top of the slot and fired a wrist shot through traffic for the power-play goal. Another power-play goal gave Minnesota a 3-0 lead with 15:37 left in the second period. Hartman parked in front of the crease and knocked in a shot from the point by Mats Zuccarello. The Avalanche got on the scoreboard with 6:49 remaining in the second period. Wallstedt stopped Colorado’s initial shot, but MacKinnon spotted the rebound and punched it in for the power-play goal. The Wild needed only 20 seconds to respond. Faber scored on a deflection to increase the Wild’s lead to 4-1 with 6:29 to go in the second period. Boldy capped the scoring with an empty-net goal with 3.3 seconds remaining. -Field Level Media #Deadspin #Wild #handle #Avalanche #postseason #loss #dominant #fashion

Of the 10-15 programs that had the greatest impact on men’s college basketball over the past couple of decades, perhaps none entered the post-COVID world with a more uncertain long-term future than Florida.

From 2014 through 2o24, Florida participated in a total of just five NCAA Tournaments. It was never seeded better than fourth, and it made the tournament’s second weekend just one time.

There was a general belief that UF was a program that had experienced a few nice moments over the years, caught lightning in a bottle for a brief stretch in the mid-2000s, and now was poised to live out the remainder of its basketball existence as a notable also-ran.

Such an existence would not have been atypical for Florida.

On a football-crazy campus, Gator basketball was always fighting an uphill battle when it came to trying to capture the complete attention of its fan base before late December. Before Billy Donovan arrived in Gainesville in 1996, the sport wasn’t even a post-holiday hobby.

Despite playing in a power conference since the inception of the SEC in 1932, Florida had played in just five NCAA Tournaments in its history. It had advanced past the opening weekend just twice before Donovan was hired.

The hiring of Donovan, who was just 31-years-old and (despite his slicked back hair) looked like he could have passed for 21, didn’t make much of an impact in the college basketball world initially. Donovan was a name, sure, but that was more from his playing days at Providence and his tight-knit relationship with his college coach, Rick Pitino. After spending five seasons as an assistant at Kentucky under Pitino, Donovan was hired as the head coach at Marshall where he went 35-20 over two seasons and never flirted with an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Despite the lack of anything resembling an initial splash, the hiring of Donovan ushered in an era of success in Gainesville that no one saw coming.

Under the direction of “Billy the Kid,” Florida made 14 trips to the Big Dance, won six SEC championships, advanced to the Final Four four times, and until 12 months ago, was the most recent program to win back-to-back national championships (2006-07).

As it tends to do, all that success came hand-in-hand with rumors of bigger and better things for the man responsible. Openings at programs like Kentucky and UCLA and a brief commitment by Donovan to become the new head coach of the Orlando Magic forced Florida fans to come face-to-face with the question of what their national powerhouse of a basketball program would look like without the man receiving the lion’s share of the credit for its rapid ascension.

They got to face that world head on when Donovan was finally lured away by the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2015. The departure came after a woeful 16-17 campaign, Donovan’s first losing season as a head coach since his second year in Gainesville.

Florida handed the keys to its car to Mike White. Like Donovan before him, White had been a head coach at just one stop prior to UF (Louisiana Tech), and had never coached a game in the NCAA Tournament. That was just about where the similarities ended.

The program didn’t fall off a cliff in the years immediately following Donovan’s departure, but it didn’t soar either. White took Florida to the NCAA Tournament in four straight years from 2017-2021, winning at least one game in the Big Dance each time. But there was just one trip past the second round, the team was never a serious contender for an SEC championship, and the Gators were just 10-15 in the month of March between 2017 and 2022. That’s when White pulled a “you can’t fire me, I quit” and bolted for Georgia.

Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin quickly turned his attention to Todd Golden, a head coach with a familiar profile.

Golden was 36, looked significantly younger, and had a forward-thinking approach to the game at basketball. At San Francisco, Golden had preached “Nerd Ball,” a term coined by previous USF head coach Kyle Smith, whom Golden worked under for three seasons. Emphasizing analytics and internal “hustle stats” specific to the program, Golden won 57 games in three seasons with the Dons, leading them to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection in 2022.

Questions from Gator fans about whether or not the approach could work at the power conference level were not initially met with a comforting answer. Florida went 16-17 in year one, losing in the first round of the NIT. They made the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed a year later, losing to Colorado in the first round.

The 2024-25 season was supposed to be another small step forward for Golden and company. The Gators were No. 21 in the preseason AP top 25 poll, and picked to finish sixth in the SEC.

In an era of unprecedented roster turnover, Golden banked on roster retention being the key to a season of overachievement. He had been able to convince the five-player nucleus of his 2023-24 team, including All-American Walter Clayton Jr., to return to Gainesville for at least one more season.

“For us going from years two to three, one of the advantages that we thought we had going into the off-season was that we had some good young guys in our program,” Golden said at SEC Media Day before the season. “But it all starts with the retention, and it all starts with that continuity, and any team that’s able to build continuity within their program I think is going to be a better chance of being successful.”

Golden added that if his team could advance in the NCAA Tournament and finish the season ranked higher than its preseason ranking of 21, it would be a nice way to show the fans that the program is back on the right track. They did far more than that, winning a school-record 36 games, rolling to the national championship, and making Golden the youngest head coach since the legendary Jim Valvano to cut down the nets.

With the historic win over Houston in the title game, “football school” Florida became one of just 10 men’s college basketball programs to win three or more national championships, and joined UConn as the only two programs in the sport to win more than two titles over the last 20 years.

But could the lightning be kept in the bottle a bit longer this time?

Golden lost the three leading scorers from his national title team to graduation, but was able to convince all three members of his stellar frontcourt to return to Gainesville for another year. The additions of transfer guards Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton) struggled to gel early in the season but found their stride during conference play. The Gators won 11 consecutive games to end the regular season and, ultimately, earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. The dream of back-to-back titles for the second time in two decades came crashing to a halt with a stunning 1-point loss to Iowa in the second round.

Any concern that the window on Florida’s second run of elite success might be closing got shut down almost immediately after the team’s tournament exit.

Alex Condon, Reuben Chinyelu and Thomas Huagh — widely considered to be the best frontcourt trio in the country — all announced that they would be spurning the NBA and the transfer portal in favor of returning to Florida for one more shot at a second title. Fland, who was stellar for the Gators down the stretch of the 2025-26 season, also announced that he was returning, citing “unfinished business.” Golden is also bringing back top reserve guard Urban Klavzar, and though he needs a waiver to play, is also potentially getting back guard Denzel Aberdeen, a key reserve on the 2025 championship team who spent last season at Kentucky.

This unprecedented level of roster retention in the transfer portal/NIL era has made the Gators nearly everyone’s “way too early” No. 1 team for the 2026-27 season.

Golden isn’t the only head coach to talk about the importance of roster retention in this brave, new world of college hoops, but he’s executed the concoction of that “secret sauce” better than anyone in the country has over the past three years. The result is Florida basketball potentially being positioned for its best run of sustained success ever, one that could push it even further up the all-time college basketball totem pole.

#Florida #figure #college #basketballs #secret #sauce #national #championship #favorites">Florida figure out college basketball’s ‘secret sauce,’ and it makes them national championship favorites Of the 10-15 programs that had the greatest impact on men’s college basketball over the past couple of decades, perhaps none entered the post-COVID world with a more uncertain long-term future than Florida.From 2014 through 2o24, Florida participated in a total of just five NCAA Tournaments. It was never seeded better than fourth, and it made the tournament’s second weekend just one time.There was a general belief that UF was a program that had experienced a few nice moments over the years, caught lightning in a bottle for a brief stretch in the mid-2000s, and now was poised to live out the remainder of its basketball existence as a notable also-ran.Such an existence would not have been atypical for Florida.On a football-crazy campus, Gator basketball was always fighting an uphill battle when it came to trying to capture the complete attention of its fan base before late December. Before Billy Donovan arrived in Gainesville in 1996, the sport wasn’t even a post-holiday hobby.Despite playing in a power conference since the inception of the SEC in 1932, Florida had played in just five NCAA Tournaments in its history. It had advanced past the opening weekend just twice before Donovan was hired.The hiring of Donovan, who was just 31-years-old and (despite his slicked back hair) looked like he could have passed for 21, didn’t make much of an impact in the college basketball world initially. Donovan was a name, sure, but that was more from his playing days at Providence and his tight-knit relationship with his college coach, Rick Pitino. After spending five seasons as an assistant at Kentucky under Pitino, Donovan was hired as the head coach at Marshall where he went 35-20 over two seasons and never flirted with an NCAA Tournament appearance.Despite the lack of anything resembling an initial splash, the hiring of Donovan ushered in an era of success in Gainesville that no one saw coming.Under the direction of “Billy the Kid,” Florida made 14 trips to the Big Dance, won six SEC championships, advanced to the Final Four four times, and until 12 months ago, was the most recent program to win back-to-back national championships (2006-07).As it tends to do, all that success came hand-in-hand with rumors of bigger and better things for the man responsible. Openings at programs like Kentucky and UCLA and a brief commitment by Donovan to become the new head coach of the Orlando Magic forced Florida fans to come face-to-face with the question of what their national powerhouse of a basketball program would look like without the man receiving the lion’s share of the credit for its rapid ascension.They got to face that world head on when Donovan was finally lured away by the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2015. The departure came after a woeful 16-17 campaign, Donovan’s first losing season as a head coach since his second year in Gainesville.Florida handed the keys to its car to Mike White. Like Donovan before him, White had been a head coach at just one stop prior to UF (Louisiana Tech), and had never coached a game in the NCAA Tournament. That was just about where the similarities ended.The program didn’t fall off a cliff in the years immediately following Donovan’s departure, but it didn’t soar either. White took Florida to the NCAA Tournament in four straight years from 2017-2021, winning at least one game in the Big Dance each time. But there was just one trip past the second round, the team was never a serious contender for an SEC championship, and the Gators were just 10-15 in the month of March between 2017 and 2022. That’s when White pulled a “you can’t fire me, I quit” and bolted for Georgia.Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin quickly turned his attention to Todd Golden, a head coach with a familiar profile.Golden was 36, looked significantly younger, and had a forward-thinking approach to the game at basketball. At San Francisco, Golden had preached “Nerd Ball,” a term coined by previous USF head coach Kyle Smith, whom Golden worked under for three seasons. Emphasizing analytics and internal “hustle stats” specific to the program, Golden won 57 games in three seasons with the Dons, leading them to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection in 2022.Questions from Gator fans about whether or not the approach could work at the power conference level were not initially met with a comforting answer. Florida went 16-17 in year one, losing in the first round of the NIT. They made the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed a year later, losing to Colorado in the first round.The 2024-25 season was supposed to be another small step forward for Golden and company. The Gators were No. 21 in the preseason AP top 25 poll, and picked to finish sixth in the SEC.In an era of unprecedented roster turnover, Golden banked on roster retention being the key to a season of overachievement. He had been able to convince the five-player nucleus of his 2023-24 team, including All-American Walter Clayton Jr., to return to Gainesville for at least one more season.“For us going from years two to three, one of the advantages that we thought we had going into the off-season was that we had some good young guys in our program,” Golden said at SEC Media Day before the season. “But it all starts with the retention, and it all starts with that continuity, and any team that’s able to build continuity within their program I think is going to be a better chance of being successful.”Golden added that if his team could advance in the NCAA Tournament and finish the season ranked higher than its preseason ranking of 21, it would be a nice way to show the fans that the program is back on the right track. They did far more than that, winning a school-record 36 games, rolling to the national championship, and making Golden the youngest head coach since the legendary Jim Valvano to cut down the nets.With the historic win over Houston in the title game, “football school” Florida became one of just 10 men’s college basketball programs to win three or more national championships, and joined UConn as the only two programs in the sport to win more than two titles over the last 20 years.But could the lightning be kept in the bottle a bit longer this time?Golden lost the three leading scorers from his national title team to graduation, but was able to convince all three members of his stellar frontcourt to return to Gainesville for another year. The additions of transfer guards Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton) struggled to gel early in the season but found their stride during conference play. The Gators won 11 consecutive games to end the regular season and, ultimately, earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. The dream of back-to-back titles for the second time in two decades came crashing to a halt with a stunning 1-point loss to Iowa in the second round.Any concern that the window on Florida’s second run of elite success might be closing got shut down almost immediately after the team’s tournament exit.Alex Condon, Reuben Chinyelu and Thomas Huagh — widely considered to be the best frontcourt trio in the country — all announced that they would be spurning the NBA and the transfer portal in favor of returning to Florida for one more shot at a second title. Fland, who was stellar for the Gators down the stretch of the 2025-26 season, also announced that he was returning, citing “unfinished business.” Golden is also bringing back top reserve guard Urban Klavzar, and though he needs a waiver to play, is also potentially getting back guard Denzel Aberdeen, a key reserve on the 2025 championship team who spent last season at Kentucky.This unprecedented level of roster retention in the transfer portal/NIL era has made the Gators nearly everyone’s “way too early” No. 1 team for the 2026-27 season.Golden isn’t the only head coach to talk about the importance of roster retention in this brave, new world of college hoops, but he’s executed the concoction of that “secret sauce” better than anyone in the country has over the past three years. The result is Florida basketball potentially being positioned for its best run of sustained success ever, one that could push it even further up the all-time college basketball totem pole. #Florida #figure #college #basketballs #secret #sauce #national #championship #favorites

way too early” No. 1 team for the 2026-27 season.

Golden isn’t the only head coach to talk about the importance of roster retention in this brave, new world of college hoops, but he’s executed the concoction of that “secret sauce” better than anyone in the country has over the past three years. The result is Florida basketball potentially being positioned for its best run of sustained success ever, one that could push it even further up the all-time college basketball totem pole.

#Florida #figure #college #basketballs #secret #sauce #national #championship #favorites">Florida figure out college basketball’s ‘secret sauce,’ and it makes them national championship favorites

Of the 10-15 programs that had the greatest impact on men’s college basketball over the past couple of decades, perhaps none entered the post-COVID world with a more uncertain long-term future than Florida.

From 2014 through 2o24, Florida participated in a total of just five NCAA Tournaments. It was never seeded better than fourth, and it made the tournament’s second weekend just one time.

There was a general belief that UF was a program that had experienced a few nice moments over the years, caught lightning in a bottle for a brief stretch in the mid-2000s, and now was poised to live out the remainder of its basketball existence as a notable also-ran.

Such an existence would not have been atypical for Florida.

On a football-crazy campus, Gator basketball was always fighting an uphill battle when it came to trying to capture the complete attention of its fan base before late December. Before Billy Donovan arrived in Gainesville in 1996, the sport wasn’t even a post-holiday hobby.

Despite playing in a power conference since the inception of the SEC in 1932, Florida had played in just five NCAA Tournaments in its history. It had advanced past the opening weekend just twice before Donovan was hired.

The hiring of Donovan, who was just 31-years-old and (despite his slicked back hair) looked like he could have passed for 21, didn’t make much of an impact in the college basketball world initially. Donovan was a name, sure, but that was more from his playing days at Providence and his tight-knit relationship with his college coach, Rick Pitino. After spending five seasons as an assistant at Kentucky under Pitino, Donovan was hired as the head coach at Marshall where he went 35-20 over two seasons and never flirted with an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Despite the lack of anything resembling an initial splash, the hiring of Donovan ushered in an era of success in Gainesville that no one saw coming.

Under the direction of “Billy the Kid,” Florida made 14 trips to the Big Dance, won six SEC championships, advanced to the Final Four four times, and until 12 months ago, was the most recent program to win back-to-back national championships (2006-07).

As it tends to do, all that success came hand-in-hand with rumors of bigger and better things for the man responsible. Openings at programs like Kentucky and UCLA and a brief commitment by Donovan to become the new head coach of the Orlando Magic forced Florida fans to come face-to-face with the question of what their national powerhouse of a basketball program would look like without the man receiving the lion’s share of the credit for its rapid ascension.

They got to face that world head on when Donovan was finally lured away by the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2015. The departure came after a woeful 16-17 campaign, Donovan’s first losing season as a head coach since his second year in Gainesville.

Florida handed the keys to its car to Mike White. Like Donovan before him, White had been a head coach at just one stop prior to UF (Louisiana Tech), and had never coached a game in the NCAA Tournament. That was just about where the similarities ended.

The program didn’t fall off a cliff in the years immediately following Donovan’s departure, but it didn’t soar either. White took Florida to the NCAA Tournament in four straight years from 2017-2021, winning at least one game in the Big Dance each time. But there was just one trip past the second round, the team was never a serious contender for an SEC championship, and the Gators were just 10-15 in the month of March between 2017 and 2022. That’s when White pulled a “you can’t fire me, I quit” and bolted for Georgia.

Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin quickly turned his attention to Todd Golden, a head coach with a familiar profile.

Golden was 36, looked significantly younger, and had a forward-thinking approach to the game at basketball. At San Francisco, Golden had preached “Nerd Ball,” a term coined by previous USF head coach Kyle Smith, whom Golden worked under for three seasons. Emphasizing analytics and internal “hustle stats” specific to the program, Golden won 57 games in three seasons with the Dons, leading them to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection in 2022.

Questions from Gator fans about whether or not the approach could work at the power conference level were not initially met with a comforting answer. Florida went 16-17 in year one, losing in the first round of the NIT. They made the NCAA Tournament as a 7-seed a year later, losing to Colorado in the first round.

The 2024-25 season was supposed to be another small step forward for Golden and company. The Gators were No. 21 in the preseason AP top 25 poll, and picked to finish sixth in the SEC.

In an era of unprecedented roster turnover, Golden banked on roster retention being the key to a season of overachievement. He had been able to convince the five-player nucleus of his 2023-24 team, including All-American Walter Clayton Jr., to return to Gainesville for at least one more season.

“For us going from years two to three, one of the advantages that we thought we had going into the off-season was that we had some good young guys in our program,” Golden said at SEC Media Day before the season. “But it all starts with the retention, and it all starts with that continuity, and any team that’s able to build continuity within their program I think is going to be a better chance of being successful.”

Golden added that if his team could advance in the NCAA Tournament and finish the season ranked higher than its preseason ranking of 21, it would be a nice way to show the fans that the program is back on the right track. They did far more than that, winning a school-record 36 games, rolling to the national championship, and making Golden the youngest head coach since the legendary Jim Valvano to cut down the nets.

With the historic win over Houston in the title game, “football school” Florida became one of just 10 men’s college basketball programs to win three or more national championships, and joined UConn as the only two programs in the sport to win more than two titles over the last 20 years.

But could the lightning be kept in the bottle a bit longer this time?

Golden lost the three leading scorers from his national title team to graduation, but was able to convince all three members of his stellar frontcourt to return to Gainesville for another year. The additions of transfer guards Boogie Fland (Arkansas) and Xaivian Lee (Princeton) struggled to gel early in the season but found their stride during conference play. The Gators won 11 consecutive games to end the regular season and, ultimately, earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year. The dream of back-to-back titles for the second time in two decades came crashing to a halt with a stunning 1-point loss to Iowa in the second round.

Any concern that the window on Florida’s second run of elite success might be closing got shut down almost immediately after the team’s tournament exit.

Alex Condon, Reuben Chinyelu and Thomas Huagh — widely considered to be the best frontcourt trio in the country — all announced that they would be spurning the NBA and the transfer portal in favor of returning to Florida for one more shot at a second title. Fland, who was stellar for the Gators down the stretch of the 2025-26 season, also announced that he was returning, citing “unfinished business.” Golden is also bringing back top reserve guard Urban Klavzar, and though he needs a waiver to play, is also potentially getting back guard Denzel Aberdeen, a key reserve on the 2025 championship team who spent last season at Kentucky.

This unprecedented level of roster retention in the transfer portal/NIL era has made the Gators nearly everyone’s “way too early” No. 1 team for the 2026-27 season.

Golden isn’t the only head coach to talk about the importance of roster retention in this brave, new world of college hoops, but he’s executed the concoction of that “secret sauce” better than anyone in the country has over the past three years. The result is Florida basketball potentially being positioned for its best run of sustained success ever, one that could push it even further up the all-time college basketball totem pole.

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