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Sam Altman Feels ‘Politically Homeless’ As Frenemy Musk Proposes Third Party

Sam Altman Feels ‘Politically Homeless’ As Frenemy Musk Proposes Third Party

Sam Altman is grappling with his political alignment. The 40-year-old CEO of OpenAI, like many of his fellow tech executives in recent years, has expressed that he does not feel at home in the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. In an extended post on X, Altman lamented the fact that he’s now “politically homeless” and yearns for a technocratic utopia—something his once friend and current rival Elon Musk has also been calling for with his push to form a third party. Hmm…interesting timing, yeah?

Altman, who claimed in his post that he’s “not big on identities,” mapped his political evolution over the last couple decades—or rather, how political parties have evolved to move away from him. “The world should get richer every year through science and technology, but everyone has to be in the ‘up elevator,’” he wrote. He also articulated his beliefs that free markets are more efficient than government, that innovation and entrepreneurship are important, and that education is key to America maintaining its edge. Pretty traditional libertarian fare, frankly.

“I believed this when I was 20, when I was 30, and now I am 40 and still believe it. The Democratic party seemed reasonably aligned with it when I was 20, losing the plot when I was 30, and completely to have moved somewhere else at this point. So now I am politically homeless. But that’s fine; I care much, much more about being American than any political party,” Altman wrote.

Altman, a billionaire, said that he’s more interested in candidates who want to “make everyone have the stuff billionaires have instead of how they are going to eliminate billionaires.” And it’s clear that he thinks the route to that outcome is techno-capitalism, an ideology that he explicitly endorses in the post. “We should encourage people to make tons of money and then also find ways to widely distribute wealth and share the compounding magic of capitalism.”

As Altman seeks a home for his capitalist utopia, a vision where markets purportedly redistribute wealth rather than allowing a select few like Altman to hoard it (he does know he can just give his away if he wants, right?), his former OpenAI co-founder Elon Musk has returned to dabbling with the formation of a third party. This push is spurred by Musk’s ongoing opposition to President Donald Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” which he argues  will add to the deficit.

“Independence Day is the perfect time to ask if you want independence from the two-party (some would say uniparty) system! Should we create the America Party?” Musk asked on X. He’s been kicking around this “America Party” idea for about a month now, claiming that it will represent the “80 percent in the middle” whom he believes are currently without sufficient representation from Republicans or Democrats. The origin of that 80% figure is unclear. A Pew Research poll, for example, found that 25% of people say neither party represents them, 37% wished there were more political parties to choose from, and 26% believed more parties would help solve the country’s problems.

It’s also worth noting that while Musk claims his “America Party” would represent a majority of people, he hasn’t really issued any policy positions or founding principles for the party. Presumably, it’d have a fair amount of overlap with Altman’s general libertarian-leaning beliefs, which often framed as “common sense” ideologies. According to Politico, fellow tech bro Andrew Yang has reached out to Musk to push a third-party collaboration, potentially using his “non-partisan” Forward Party as a model.

Frankly, you’d be hard pressed to find a single issue that 80% of Americans all agree on, let alone enough of them to serve as the foundation of a political party. But having a party of their own would certainly make it more straightforward for the Musks and Altmans of the world to push their preferred interests. Of course, they’d have to settle their own disagreements first.



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#Sam #Altman #Feels #Politically #Homeless #Frenemy #Musk #Proposes #Party


The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at 0,  more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on RecordThe world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

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