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OpenAI’s New CEO of Applications Strikes Hyper-Optimistic Tone in First Memo to Staff

OpenAI’s New CEO of Applications Strikes Hyper-Optimistic Tone in First Memo to Staff

OpenAI’s incoming CEO of applications, Fidji Simo, sent her first note to staff on Monday, telling employees the tools they’re developing “will unlock more opportunities for more people than any other technology in history.”

“If we get this right, AI can give everyone more power than ever,” Simo wrote, striking a hyper-optimistic tone, according to a copy of the memo viewed by WIRED. “But I also realize those opportunities won’t magically appear on their own.”

Simo currently works as the CEO of Instacart. Previously, she spent a decade at Meta, where she went from being a product manager on the company’s news feed to the head of product for the Facebook app. For the past year, Simo has been a member of OpenAI’s board of directors. In her memo, Simo said she’ll be starting her role as an OpenAI executive “in a few weeks.” She’ll report directly to CEO Sam Altman.

Simo’s primary role will be to lead the startup’s business and operational teams, according to Altman’s announcement about the hire in May. She’ll be responsible for translating OpenAI’s research into viable products like ChatGPT, the API (which developers use to build their own tools atop OpenAI’s technology), and enterprise tools—and securing high-profile business partnerships.

In the memo, Simo outlines her thinking on how AI will impact knowledge, health, creative expression, economic freedom, time, and support. She promotes a few common ideas that paint a rosy picture of AI: personalized AI tutors, better health data, more opportunities for creative expression, efficiency gains from automation, and AI-powered emotional support (a hotly debated topic).

“My business coach Katia has been transformative to my career, and I’ve joked with her over the years that everyone needs a ‘Katia in their pocket,’” Simo wrote. “Personalized coaching has obviously been a privilege reserved for a few, but now with ChatGPT, it can be available to many.”

The memo reads like a mission statement, not just for the Applications division, but for OpenAI’s broader bet: that it can build tools that feel as personal and indispensable as a search engine or a smartphone. In the memo, Simo positions OpenAI’s products as the great equalizer that knocks down society’s barriers to knowledge, income, and emotional clarity—though whether it will actually do so remains to be seen.

“AI can compress thousands of hours of learning into personalized insights delivered in plain language, at the pace that suits us, responsive to our specific level of understanding,” Simo writes. “It doesn’t just answer questions—it teaches us to ask better ones. And it helps us develop confidence in areas that once felt opaque or intimidating, growing both personally and professionally.”

The memo also hints at OpenAI’s vision for emotional companions. In the closing section, Simo writes that AI coaches “can be available throughout every day, leverage their full understanding of all aspects of your life to help support you, and bring your subconscious patterns to your consciousness.”

That idea goes hand-in-hand with the rumored hardware device OpenAI is creating with famed designer Jony Ive, which The Wall Street Journal reported will be “fully aware of a user’s surroundings and life.” Altman hasn’t shied away from flat-out saying the company hopes to build an AI similar to the movie Her, where a lonely man fresh out of a failed marriage turns to a virtual companion named Samantha. That, of course, has also gotten Altman into hot water, since critics note that the film is more of a cautionary tale than a business opportunity.

The memo was very on brand for an OpenAI executive: optimistic and based largely on future promises. While Altman, Simo’s boss, works to coordinate some of the more futuristic ideas, like Stargate and artificial general intelligence, Simo will work to pair the startup’s complicated research into real tools for consumers.

“If AI can help people truly understand themselves, it could be one of the biggest gifts we could ever receive,” Simo writes.

Update: 7/21/2025 2:45 PM EDT: Wired has clarified that Fidji Simo is still Instacart’s CEO, and will formally join OpenAI next month.

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#OpenAIs #CEO #Applications #Strikes #HyperOptimistic #Tone #Memo #Staff


The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at 0,  more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables">You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5You Might Want to Temper Your Excitement for the Pixel Watch 5
                The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM. The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5. One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

 Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

 Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model. Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.      #Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The Pixel Watch 4 proved Google could make a truly great Android smartwatch, so for this year’s Pixel Watch 5, the company apparently doesn’t plan to change much. According to a Google Play Console listing spotted by 9to5Google, the Pixel Watch 5 may end up using the exact same Qualcomm chip as the Pixel Watch 4, just with a smidge more RAM.

The listing specifically names a device called “google godric_btwifi” using a “Qualcomm SW5100” with a 4x ARM Cortex-A53 CPU and a Qualcomm Adreno 702. That suggests Google is using a chip in the same Snapdragon W5 family as it did on its smartwatches starting with the Pixel Watch 2. It may even be the exact same Snapdragon W5 Gen 2 chip as the Pixel Watch 4 if the yet-to-be-listed co-processor hasn’t been changed. That’s a notable difference from early leaks that suggested Google might introduce its own Tensor chip for the Pixel Watch 5.

One place the smartwatch could be different is memory: the listing shows the Pixel Watch 5 as having 3GB of RAM, a 1GB increase over the Pixel Watch 4. This might not change the day-to-day experience of using the smartwatch, but it could enable new Gemini Intelligence features Google has planned.

Combined with leaked renders of the Pixel Watch 5, which show the wearable as looking more or less like the Pixel Watch that came before it, Google’s new smartwatch seems like not much of an upgrade. It’ll reportedly be available in new “Dark Anthracite” (dark gray) and “Pyrite” (green) colors, and Google will likely introduce new bands, but nothing about what’s leaked so far suggests the watch will do anything different than it did before.

Google could still wow in the software department—for example, the company patented technology for measuring arterial stiffness that could show up on a future watch—but it’ll still have an uphill battle selling the smartwatch. Dealabs reported earlier this month that the Pixel Watch 5 will likely start at $400, $50 more than the Pixel Watch 4. That price might be harder to swallow if the watch also looks nearly identical to last year’s model.

Increasingly, it seems like the Pixel Watch story Google will be telling at its upcoming Made by Google event will be focused on software. That’s one of the company’s strengths, but it remains to be seen whether the Pixel Watch 5 will be worth the upgrade.

#Temper #Excitement #Pixel #WatchGoogle,Google Pixel,smart watch,Wearables

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on RecordThe world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino">The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record

The world could face the strongest El Niño since recordkeeping began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a worrying picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently forecast that this year’s El Niño—characterized by hotter than normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific—could be among the strongest on records. Hausfather’s analysis using the El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began—it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.”

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at the temperatures in a region of the Pacific known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them with historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also disentangles El Niño’s intensity from the background warming driven by fossil fuels, making it easier to draw comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that heat in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This figure would exceed the previous record—set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode—by approximately 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to fall by such a wide spread.

“For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C. The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather writes.

Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific doesn’t stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño rearranges the atmosphere, changing weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific combined with warming driven by carbon emissions could send the global temperature to new highs. But it takes a while for the extra heat released by El Niño to work its way through the vast climate system, meaning that next year is when we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the global average temperature. According to his projections, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold that’s been dubbed a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the likelihood up from 19 percent in April to 35 percent as of July. And the forecasters are expecting extreme weather associated with El Niño to impact various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Fisheries in the eastern Pacific are seeing lower catches, with the Peruvian government setting up a ban for catching anchovies this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to the comparison, this year’s El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997-1998 event, another super El Niño. It also differs significantly from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of prior warming—in other words, it had a running start. That’s particularly striking because this year began with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so it had a bit of work to do before it even got going.

#Niño #Track #Strongest #Recordclimate,environment,weather,el nino

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